What's the number? Scholies

[Irish YJ]

losing only 3 starters on defense is a pretty good thing. Most teams would kill to lose only 3 starters on defense. The DL is fine, the Safety position is fine, the only drop off will be Teo --> Grace.

Hey NDH, I disagree . If it were JUST 3 starters I'd be OK. But its the QB of our front seven and emotional leader, and the QB of our DBs. Old Man Kap is also no slouch. The depth behind Kap and Zeke are good, but we'll be breaking in a new DB leader. Also God forbid we lose Nix. While not near as critical, we lose the depth behind Glorious Stache. Overall not horrible, but not easy either.

 

[NDhoosier]

you can go ahead and worry about losing 3 starters, it will give something to discuss over the off-season.

I agree with you on the Teo comment, Teo will be hard to replace, which is why I will be curious to see how Grace develops.

 

[Irish YJ]

you can go ahead and worry about losing 3 starters, it will give something to discuss over the off-season.

I agree with you on the Teo comment, Teo will be hard to replace, which is why I will be curious to see how Grace develops.

I didn't think I would ever say such good things about ZM, but he's really brought it this year. I just hate replacing two QBs of the D in one year. I know the young pups need to push through, but this concerns me. You mentioned earlier that most schools would be happy losing only 3. Yes, but on average (just pure numbers/averages based on 11 starters), the average number we should be replacing any given year is 3-4. So in that, we are average. It just hurts when half of that are the two leaders of the DBs and front 7.

 

[EddytoNow]

If Tausch has a fifth year available, I wouldn't be surprised to see one offered to him. Do we have any other kickers besides Brindza returning? If not, keeping Tausch around for another year makes more sense than adding another recruit to this class, especially one that would be redshirted.

Living with only one kicker on the roster puts the team one injury away from some serious special teams problems (as if that area doesn't have enough problems already). Would someone care to elaborate on the back-up plan for Brindza next year? Do we have anyone available for punting, kick-offs, field goals, and extra points should Brindza get hurt?

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Kelly made it pretty clear Brindza was it.

It seems that there was an open tryout for the Interhall players . . .

 

[Irish YJ]

There is a walk-on. Jude Rhodes. Know nothing about him, but there is someone else.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Was he from the tryouts? Anybody got a candle here?

 

[Irish YJ]

Says... we got candles.

 

[NDhoosier]

I didn't think I would ever say such good things about ZM, but he's really brought it this year. I just hate replacing two QBs of the D in one year. I know the young pups need to push through, but this concerns me. You mentioned earlier that most schools would be happy losing only 3. Yes, but on average (just pure numbers/averages based on 11 starters), the average number we should be replacing any given year is 3-4. So in that, we are average. It just hurts when half of that are the two leaders of the DBs and front 7.

I am not dismissing Zeke Motta by any means, the kid is a stud. I just think there are plenty of capable safeties that will make the transition... not horrible. Same for the DL.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Says... we got candles.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/egd1mCiGhiE" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Irish YJ]

LOL. I've never seen that one. Wondering now what other ones I missed.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

LOL. I've never seen that one. Wondering now what other ones I missed.

If you missed that one, you missed 'em all bro!

 

[irishroo]

Bit early to be thinking about this for 2014 class, but I'm bored. Looks like we'll return 62-63 next year (number will probably be lower than that due to transfers, but those are impossible to predict). I'm assuming Nix (99% chance) and Tuitt (70%) declare for the draft, L. Wood, Welch, Collinsworth, and Lombard get 5Ys, and Hounshell maybe takes a medical. That gives us 22-23 spots this year, of which 15 are already filled. So 7-8 more this cycle. Who do you guys want to fill those slots ideally? My ideal finish:

Luatua
Thomas
Watkins
Holley
Smith
Williams
Yeargin
Quick

 

[NDFAN22]

That would make for one incredible class and perfect finish for me.

 

[STLDomer]

Most are projecting 24 with the possibility of 25

 

[PANDFAN]

here is whisky's from one foot down

2013 ND Roster Breakdown (6 June) so add in 5 more commits for a total of 15

Below is a quick breakdown of the roster changes that have taken place since we last took a look at the numbers in the spring.

Attrition

Davonte Neal

Justin Ferguson

Everett Golson (*Expected to return in the spring of 2014)

Eddie Vanderdoes

New Commitments

Coach Kelly and the staff have also received 6 additional verbal commitments bringing the total number of commitments for this cycle to 10.

The current math is below.

23 Freshmen

14 Sophomores

21 Juniors

10 Seniors that will be eligible to apply for a 5th year

10 Verbal Commitments

78 Total

There are 17 Total scholarships available for new recruits if all 10 of the 5th year options are utilized. Of those 17 scholarships 10 have already been claimed by verbal commitments.

After the remaining 7 scholarships are claimed there are a maximum of 10 additional spots available as a 1 for 1 replacement for 5th year options. There obviously won't be 10 of them but this class is definitely going to be bigger than we thought it was going to be a couple of months ago.

Based on the current state of the roster I expect that the staff will utilize 4 to 5 of those 5th year options which will put the total number in the 2014 signing class at 22 or 23. Any further attrition will obviously free up additional scholarships for this cycle.

Let's take a quick look the 10 players with a 5th year option.

NFL Draft

Louis Nix III- Irish Chocolate is a lock for the bigs.

Likely to return

Christian Lombard- With Nix going to the draft I still think that Lombard will be priority #1 to keep for a 5th year. That is assuming of course that he doesn't play himself into the draft.

Kendall Moore- The roster is thin at inside linebacker. Even if the staff locks on a couple of high quality recruits in this cycle I think it would make sense to keep Moore for a 5th year.

Justin Utopo- This one most likely depends on where he actually ends up playing this fall. If he can provide quality reps at NG he may earn himself a 5th year.

Austin Collinsworth- I think Austin will stick around. He's a solid safety and a great special teams contributor.

On the bubble

Lo Wood- With all of the young depth at corner sticking around could be difficult for Wood.

Andrew Hendrix- With Kiel gone and Golson TBD this scenario an interesting one for Hendrix. He wants to go to med school so does it benefit him in any way to stick around for another year?

Luke Massa- Will Massa move back to Quarterback? If he does could he be another option to stick around for a 5th year to shore up the depth chart?

Alex Welch- Welch might be contingent on how quickly Heuerman and Smythe come along this fall.

Unlikely to return

Bruce Heggie

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Fr + So + Jr = 59
Estimated 5Ys = 5
Current commits = 15

59 + 5 + 15 = 79

85 - 79 = 6 spots remaining.

Attrition (medical for Hounshell, transfers) will likely give us room for an additional 1-2.

 

[NDdomer2]

Fr + So + Jr = 59
Estimated 5Ys = 5
Current commits = 15

59 + 5 + 15 = 79

85 - 79 = 6 spots remaining.

Attrition (medical for Hounshell, transfers) will likely give us room for an additional 1-2.

Bolded = Max 23

Most are projecting 24 with the possibility of 25

Are they estimating we don't take the 5, 5Y guys?

 

[Old Man Mike]

Is Springmann in this decision mix somewhere? I've lost track of his status. If he's a possible 5th year, then he comes back as high priority.

 

[irishog77]

Is Springmann in this decision mix somewhere? I've lost track of his status. If he's a possible 5th year, then he comes back as high priority.

Not yet, Mike. He'll be a RS SO in '13.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Are they estimating we don't take the 5, 5Y guys?

They're expecting Tuitt to go pro; my analysis didn't make that assumption (still think he's a coin flip to return, though). So that's 1 more potential scholarship. Beyond that, they're probably estimating fewer 5Ys than I am.

Seniors with eligibility remaining beyond this season: Hendrix, Massa, Welch, Heggie, Lombard, Utupo, Nix, Moore, Wood, Collinsworth.

Lombard is a lock; Moore and Wood are very likely. Welch and Collinsworth are borderline.

If I'm feeling very bullish about our recruiting prospects, I'd estimate only 3 5Ys. But we have underestimated the # of returning 5Ys every year since Kelly took over. We either whiff on some elite prospects down the stretch, or we get hit with some unforeseeable attrition in the off-season. So I'm sticking with 5 for now.

 

[irishog77]

They're expecting Tuitt to go pro; my analysis didn't make that assumption (still think he's a coin flip to return, though). So that's 1 more potential scholarship. Beyond that, they're probably estimating fewer 5Ys than I am.

Seniors with eligibility remaining beyond this season: Hendrix, Massa, Welch, Heggie, Lombard, Utupo, Nix, Moore, Wood, Collinsworth.

Lombard is a lock; Moore and Wood are very likely. Welch and Collinsworth are borderline.

If I'm feeling very bullish about our recruiting prospects, I'd estimate only 3 5Ys. But we have underestimated the # of returning 5Ys every year since Kelly took over. We either whiff on some elite prospects down the stretch, or we get hit with some unforeseeable attrition in the off-season. So I'm sticking with 5 for now.

So you're saying, essentially, because of prior history, that the roster "backs into" more 5th years for next season. I agree, that has been the case.

I wonder, though, if the staff would only like to bring 3 (for argument's sake) back next year. Does this mean they will target 24, 25 signings this cycle? Then, hope for the best, but take back 1 or 2 more 5th's if the roster allows it.

 

[Kaneyoufeelit]

Bit early to be thinking about this for 2014 class, but I'm bored. Looks like we'll return 62-63 next year (number will probably be lower than that due to transfers, but those are impossible to predict). I'm assuming Nix (99% chance) and Tuitt (70%) declare for the draft, L. Wood, Welch, Collinsworth, and Lombard get 5Ys, and Hounshell maybe takes a medical. That gives us 22-23 spots this year, of which 15 are already filled. So 7-8 more this cycle. Who do you guys want to fill those slots ideally? My ideal finish:

Luatua
Thomas
Watkins
Holley
Smith
Williams
Yeargin
Quick

Not McKenzie?

 

[STLDomer]

They're expecting Tuitt to go pro; my analysis didn't make that assumption (still think he's a coin flip to return, though). So that's 1 more potential scholarship. Beyond that, they're probably estimating fewer 5Ys than I am.

Seniors with eligibility remaining beyond this season: Hendrix, Massa, Welch, Heggie, Lombard, Utupo, Nix, Moore, Wood, Collinsworth.

Lombard is a lock; Moore and Wood are very likely. Welch and Collinsworth are borderline.

If I'm feeling very bullish about our recruiting prospects, I'd estimate only 3 5Ys. But we have underestimated the # of returning 5Ys every year since Kelly took over. We either whiff on some elite prospects down the stretch, or we get hit with some unforeseeable attrition in the off-season. So I'm sticking with 5 for now.

I would expect Welch, Lombard, Wood, & Moore to be 5th years. Hendrix if he wants it.

I don't know how the #s shake out but pretty much all the experts are saying 24

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I wonder, though, if the staff would only like to bring 3 (for argument's sake) back next year. Does this mean they will target 24, 25 signings this cycle? Then, hope for the best, but take back 1 or 2 more 5th's if the roster allows it.

That's probably correct. I assume they're including Lombard, Wood and Moore in their plans for the future. If Tuitt is genuinely undecided, they'll hold a spot for him, too. That may be Welch's or Collinsworth's best chance of returning.

I would expect Welch, Lombard, Wood, & Moore to be 5th years. Hendrix if he wants it.

Why the confidence in Welch? We'll likely have 5-6 very talented TEs on the roster heading into 2014 without him; he's gonna need a productive 2013 to justify a 5Y.

 

[NDWorld247]

It's going to be very interesting to see what the staff does this cycle. Will they max out the number of '14 recruits in lieu of bringing back some 5Y's, or will they be more conservative with the numbers this cycle in order to have a more balanced class in 2015?

With two full seasons and an offseason left to go, it's almost impossible to predict what the numbers will look like in 2015, but a quick glance at the numbers tells us the 2015 cycle will be a small class.

The junior class will see only 8 guys run out of eligibility after 2014. Add the number of 5Y's in 2014, let's assume 5, and that number goes up to 13. That's our number IF they accepted all of the 5Y candidates in 2015. Obviously they won't do that, but looking at the list (Carlisle, Daniels, Hegarty, Hanratty, N. Martin, Hounshell, Springman, Grace, Schmidt, Rabassa, Councell, Brown, Hardy, Farley) there are only 2-3 guys that you definitely don't bring back. So that increases the '15 number to 15-16. So, they will either be taking a small class in 2015 or showing some quality 5Y candidates the door in order to increase the number of '15 recruits.

Now obviously that '15 number will grow with attrition, but my guess is the staff is looking at a range of 21-25 in 2014 and will only get to 24/25 if the last 3-4 guys are absolute must take recruits. Meaning they will likely pass on lower rated recruits (in their mind, not the services) in order to bring back a 5Y and open up a spot(s) in the 2015 cycle.

 

[STLDomer]

That's probably correct. I assume they're including Lombard, Wood and Moore in their plans for the future. If Tuitt is genuinely undecided, they'll hold a spot for him, too. That may be Welch's or Collinsworth's best chance of returning.



Why the confidence in Welch? We'll likely have 5-6 very talented TEs on the roster heading into 2014 without him; he's gonna need a productive 2013 to justify a 5Y.

I think Welch is a boss

 

[Emcee77]

I think Welch is a boss

Yeah, the staff consistently talks about what a great receiver he is. Unless we have a ton of top-tier guys or guys at high-need positions who jump on board, I think he'll get his spot. Same with Collinsworth ... we know the staff loves him, so it may depend on whether the staff can keep him without turning away a badly needed or highly desired recruit.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I think Welch is a boss

Yeah, the staff consistently talks about what a great receiver he is. Unless we have a ton of top-tier guys or guys at high-need positions who jump on board, I think he'll get his spot. Same with Collinsworth ... we know the staff loves him, so it may depend on whether the staff can keep him without turning away a badly needed or highly desired recruit.

Excepting OL, if a guy hasn't broken into the two-deep by his senior year, he's very unlikely to become a major contributor. Welch may very well make the two-deep and have a productive season, but he'll have to stay healthy and hold off Koyack to do it.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

I'm thinking a higher amount of 5th years: Wood, Moore, Lombard, Collinsworth, Utopo, Welch