Sep 3 | South Florida

[Whiskeyjack]

What follows is a quick statistical comparison of how USF and ND matchup in various aspects of the game. All stats come from Football Outsiders.

USF's Defense

Overall: 27th
Rush Defense: 36th
Pass Defense: 51st
Standard Downs: 20th
Passing Downs: 105th

ND's Defense

Overall: 9th
Rushing Defense: 13th
Passing Defense: 5th
Standard Downs: 5th
Passing Downs: 17th

USF's Offense

Overall: 74th
Rushing: 57th
Passing: 81st
Standard Downs: 66th
Passing Downs: 55th

ND's Offense

Overall: 37th
Passing: 33rd
Rushing: 33rd
Standard Downs: 35th
Passing Downs: 60th

What can we take away from this? The most obvious conclusion is that ND is a much better football team, and when you factor in the significant disparity in number of returning starters, one has to wonder why some Irish fans are getting so worked up about this game.

Let's compare situational performance:

• USF's 57th ranked rushing attack (4/11 returning starters) meets our 13th ranked rushing defense (8/11 returning starters).
• USF's 81st ranked passing attack (4/11 returning starters) meets our 5th ranked passing defense (8/11 returning starters).
• ND's 33rd ranked rushing attack (8/11 returning starters) meets USF's 36th ranked rush defense (6/11 returning starters).
• ND's 33rd ranked passing attack (8/11 returning starters) meets USF's 51st ranked pass defense (6/11 returning starters).

Also worth noting is the USF defense's abysmal performance on passing downs. That is not indicative of a unit that can rush the passer or defend against short "move the chain" routes.

Predictions:

• Of all the situational matchups, ND's rush offense against USF's rush defense is the most even. We may struggle to move the ball against them on the ground. By the same token, if we can run successfully against USF, then our ground game is poised for a huge 2011.
• ND shouldn't have much trouble moving the ball through the air; especially not on 3rd and long.
• By the numbers, USF will not be able to run the ball against us.
• That should force the game onto Daniels' arm, which is an even more favorable matchup for the Irish. If our pass rush sees even modest improvement, Daniels is in for a very long day.

ND rushes for 135 yards and passes for 250 more. USF gains less than 100 yards on the ground, and passes for about 150. Daniels, constantly under pressure, tosses 2 picks. ND also recovers a fumble to win the turnover margin +3.

ND- 27 USF- 10

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Bill Connelly's USF 2011 Preview is excellent. Should quell any lingering doubts about this game for us.

Here's the conclusion:

I think USF's a year away. In this year's publication, Phil Steele picked the Bulls to surprise and finish tied for first in the Big East, but I just can't really see it. They had some fumbles luck, and their YPP margin suggests they were a bit lucky in regard to efficiency. They do not return a lofty level of experience, especially on offense, and ... I just don't see it. I see a young offense lacking in receiving threats and a confusing front seven on defense, but I see a seventh consecutive bowl game, seven or eight wins and a wonderfully experienced team that heads into 2012 with big expectations.

Here's a bit of explanation for USF's puzzling failure on Passing Downs:

They suffered from a pretty severe case of misplaced aggression, however. Few defenses were as good as the Bulls were on standard downs and as bad as the Bulls were on passing downs. Opponents very much did not fear the USF blitz, apparently; they passed a ton on passing downs, and they had great success in doing so. USF's strong standard downs sack rates disappeared on third-and-long for some reason. As a result, USF showed quite a few bend-don't-break tendencies, though that was likely involuntary.

The secondary misses only one piece from last year: cornerback Mistral Raymond (49.5 tackles, 4.5 TFL/sacks, 7 PBU), who put up safety stats from the cornerback position. Actual safety Jon Lejiste, meanwhile, put up linebacker stats from the safety position (37.5 tackles, 7.5 TFL/sacks, 2 FF, 2 PBU, 1 INT). It is pretty clear that Lejiste spends quite a bit of time near the line of scrimmage, leaving free safeties Jerrell Young and Mark Joyce (combined: 60.5 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 4 INT, 3 PBU) playing the "last line of defense" role. This works out well on standard downs and terribly on passing downs. Corner Quenton Washington (52.5 tackles, 1 INT, 4 PBU), and Kayvon Webster (25.5 tackles) will likely get the first shot at replacing Raymond.

 

[irishff1014]

I just know that i am friggin excited for this game. I just hope Kelly has the boys ready to WIN.

 

[JIRISHONE]

Hi everyone.....I'm new here, but I have been following for a while......I love the thread......I just was wondering if anyone heard what Herbie said today.......he said that the biggest challenge in South Bend is to control the expectations.....what? 5 wins should be what is expected.....then went on to say that 8 wins would be a great year!!!!! Why can's we get any respect???!!!!! No one knows what we know......homer or not.....that is just down right disrespectful!!!!!!

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Hi everyone.....I'm new here, but I have been following for a while......I love the thread......I just was wondering if anyone heard what Herbie said today.......he said that the biggest challenge in South Bend is to control the expectations.....what? 5 wins should be what is expected.....then went on to say that 8 wins would be a great year!!!!! Why can's we get any respect???!!!!! No one knows what we know......homer or not.....that is just down right disrespectful!!!!!!

The as$hats on ESPN simply don't do their homework. The "analysis" is either poorly informed hand-waving or disingenuously manufactured to generate buzz.

It's not worth serious consideration.

 

[NDOM]

What follows is a quick statistical comparison of how USF and ND matchup in various aspects of the game. All stats come from Football Outsiders.

USF's Defense

Overall: 27th
Rush Defense: 36th
Pass Defense: 51st
Standard Downs: 20th
Passing Downs: 105th

ND's Defense

Overall: 9th
Rushing Defense: 13th
Passing Defense: 5th
Standard Downs: 5th
Passing Downs: 17th

USF's Offense

Overall: 74th
Rushing: 57th
Passing: 81st
Standard Downs: 66th
Passing Downs: 55th

ND's Offense

Overall: 37th
Passing: 33rd
Rushing: 33rd
Standard Downs: 35th
Passing Downs: 60th

What can we take away from this? The most obvious conclusion is that ND is a much better football team, and when you factor in the significant disparity in number of returning starters, one has to wonder why some Irish fans are getting so worked up about this game.

Let's compare situational performance:

• USF's 57th ranked rushing attack (4/11 returning starters) meets our 13th ranked rushing defense (8/11 returning starters).
• USF's 81st ranked passing attack (4/11 returning starters) meets our 5th ranked passing defense (8/11 returning starters).
• ND's 33rd ranked rushing attack (8/11 returning starters) meets USF's 36th ranked rush defense (6/11 returning starters).
• ND's 33rd ranked passing attack (8/11 returning starters) meets USF's 51st ranked pass defense (6/11 returning starters).

Also worth noting is the USF defense's abysmal performance on passing downs. That is not indicative of a unit that can rush the passer or defend against short "move the chain" routes.

Predictions:

• Of all the situational matchups, ND's rush offense against USF's rush defense is the most even. We may struggle to move the ball against them on the ground. By the same token, if we can run successfully against USF, then our ground game is poised for a huge 2011.
• ND shouldn't have much trouble moving the ball through the air; especially not on 3rd and long.
• By the numbers, USF will not be able to run the ball against us.
• That should force the game onto Daniels' arm, which is an even more favorable matchup for the Irish. If our pass rush sees even modest improvement, Daniels is in for a very long day.

ND rushes for 135 yards and passes for 250 more. USF gains less than 100 yards on the ground, and passes for about 150. Daniels, constantly under pressure, tosses 2 picks. ND also recovers a fumble to win the turnover margin +3.

ND- 27 USF- 10

Because we seem to lose to lesser opponents. Syracuse, Uconn, Navy, Tulsa etc etc. Its VERY easy for us ND fans to have the mindset that we can lose this game, and believe me......we can.

 

[irishff1014]

Hi everyone.....I'm new here, but I have been following for a while......I love the thread......I just was wondering if anyone heard what Herbie said today.......he said that the biggest challenge in South Bend is to control the expectations.....what? 5 wins should be what is expected.....then went on to say that 8 wins would be a great year!!!!! Why can's we get any respect???!!!!! No one knows what we know......homer or not.....that is just down right disrespectful!!!!!!

Not that i agree with him at all but this is what this team has become. I am ready for a Coach like kelly to say F*** that. We are going to be prepared and ready to play. I think that Kelly is tired of hearing the same things we are. But he wants his talking to be the players out on the field winning their battles. However Herbie did give us props for having a great 11 class though.

 

[IrishMoore1]

Who cares. No one is gonna believe ND is good until they see it on the field. All the talk doesn't mean anything right now.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Because we seem to lose to lesser opponents. Syracuse, Uconn, Navy, Tulsa etc etc. Its VERY easy for us ND fans to have the mindset that we can lose this game, and believe me......we can.

If that's the lens through which you're going to view every opponent, this is going to be a very long and anxious season for you.

The failures of the Weis regime aren't really relevant to anything going forward. You might have a point with Navy and Tulsa, but unless you're honestly expecting (1) complete schematic failure or (2) serious ST failures combined with a true freshman QB turning the ball over frequently, then you should probably relax and take heart in the fact that ND deserves to be the double digit favorite in this game.

 

[TerryTate]

Because we seem to lose to lesser opponents. Syracuse, Uconn, Navy, Tulsa etc etc. Its VERY easy for us ND fans to have the mindset that we can lose this game, and believe me......we can.

It's starting...

 

[HereComeTheIrish]

It's starting...

Never ends...

 

[Riddickulous]

Whiskeyjack, where are you getting these defensive rankings?

Our defense definitely was not 9th in the nation last year. They were 48th.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Whiskeyjack, where are you getting these defensive rankings?

Our defense definitely was not 9th in the nation last year. They were 48th.

So says the NCAA's worthless vanilla stats. In CFB, if a stat isn't opponent adjusted, it's pretty useless.

All of my stats come from Football Outsiders.

 

[NDOM]

Never ends...

Hey man, I'm not saying we ARE going to lose....matter of fact I posted on this thread way back and said we would win 40-37 in double overtime. so nah nah nah nah nah naaaaaaaah!

 

[NDOM]

So says the NCAA's worthless vanilla stats. In CFB, if a stat isn't opponent adjusted, it's pretty useless.

All of my stats come from Football Outsiders.

He may have been referring to the last 4 games of the year. just a hunch.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

He may have been referring to the last 4 games of the year. just a hunch.

Takes our whole season into account. Those rankings are plucked from a complete table of all 120 teams.

 

[Riddickulous]

Takes our whole season into account. Those rankings are plucked from a complete table of all 120 teams.

Must factor in SOS or something.

 

[BGIF]

USF Two Deep

USF Two Deep

http://www.gousfbulls.com/pdf8/758059.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=7700&KEY=&SPID=2981&SPSID=594335

 

[BGIF]

ND Two Deep (or three)

ND Two Deep (or three)

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools...depth_chart_event/depth_chart_20110829aaa.pdf

 

[NDfan12]

I'm beyond ready for Saturday ! I have high expectations for this season. Thinking a 10-2 record with a trip to the Fiesta or Rose(depending on if Oregon goes to the national title again)

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Must factor in SOS or something.

The F/+ ranking is a combination of two separate rankings-- The S&P and the FEI. The S&P focuses on production, and the FEI on efficiency. Both account for strength of schedule, but it doesn't simply make a single adjustment based on an arbitrary SoS ranking.

The S & P is calculated as follows:

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:
Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an
offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.
The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed "close," or competitive. The criteria for being "close" are as follows: a game within 24 points in the first quarter, with 21 points in the second quarter, and within 16 points in the second half.
Passing Downs are defined as:
second down with 8 or more yards to go
third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go
All other downs are Standard Downs Please note that in the split of rushing and passing S&P+, sacks are counted as passes, as in NFL data, and not runs as in official NCAA totals.

If it's not obvious, I'm a huge fan of these kinds of advanced metrics. They're so much more useful than the NCAA's stats. Use them!

 

[tankjeep]

you guys leave ndom alone....he's got his way of approaching games.

 

[NDOM]

you guys leave ndom alone....he's got his way of approaching games.

YEAH!!!!! What tankjeep said. Thanks bro.

 

[HoosierIrish]

I haven't been able to see USF play, but exactly how much more speed does their defense have than ours? Looking at the depth charts we avg. 1 inch and 15 lbs more than each of their front 7 (21 if Nix is in). I'm a big dayne supporter and would love to see him throw for 350+ yards, but shouldn't we be able to run the ball on these guys pretty well. I just see both our RB's having a big day.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I haven't been able to see USF play, but exactly how much more speed does their defense have than ours? Looking at the depth charts we avg. 1 inch and 15 lbs more than each of their front 7 (21 if Nix is in). I'm a big dayne supporter and would love to see him throw for 350+ yards, but shouldn't we be able to run the ball on these guys pretty well. I just see both our RB's having a big day.

Their run defense was pretty stout in 2010, but they lost 4/7 starters in the defensive front 7 to graduation. If there's one area where their defense will give us trouble, it will be in stopping our run, but I still think our veteran OL will win that battle against 3/4 new starters on USF's DL,

 

[Who'saWildManNow]

Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly can fit offense to team in '11 - ESPN

 

[JayRock]

Special Uniforms?

Twitter

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Special Uniforms?

Twitter

I WANT TO KNOW WHAT IT IS!!!!!!!!

 

[HereComeTheIrish]

I WANT TO KNOW WHAT IT IS!!!!!!!!

It's a trailer....just a trailer...

Over to you Ollie...

"It's White!!!!"

Thanks Ollie....

 

[Buster Bluth]

Three days and 13 hours. The waiting is becoming painful.