A few thoughts on Russia:
If Italy doesn't invade Greece, costing Germany 6 weeks of precious good weather and delaying the operation, Moscow probsby falls. They were about two weeks away from falling as it happened.
Russia is making one new tank a day now and refurbishing/cannibalizing two tanks a day from their storage fields.
Russia is planning on absorbing Belarus by 2030 and are actively trying to overthrow the Moldovan leadership in favor of a Pro Russian one. They are also sowing discord and organizing pro russian protests.
Chinese money and weapons are about to flow. We are going to have to make some difficult decisions with China. The west is going to have to deal with this. Its not going to be pretty.