Domina Nostra
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It seems to me that ND is at the forefront of the phenomenon that will permanently change QB recruiting for the traditional football powerhouses. With the rise of the transfer portal, most blue chip QB recruits will start picking smaller schools where they can get immediate experience with the explicit intention of transferring later to a better program.
It has always been true that QBs need snaps/PT more than anything else in order to develop. Yet, for the most part, kids have been willing to sit and wait their turn at the traditional power programs because (1) they want to win (i.e., they want the best teammates when it's their turn), (2) those schools can claim to have the best resources for development (coaches, equipment, etc.), and (3) when the current starter's time was up, another QB on the roster took over 95% of the time because other options were both limited and risky (and bad for the lockerroom).
However, #3 is no longer a given. With the portal, proven QBs with an actual track record at the college level are readily available. Because of their game time experience, they are actually less risky (in many cases) than this year's backup or the promising incoming freshman. We all know how much P5 coaches value experience.
When a QB recruit goes to a P5 powerhouse to wait his turn, he is essentially forfeiting the experience that is necessary for his development and that his coaches prize so much in picking a starter. So doesn't it make sense to start at a smaller school where you know you can get PT as a freshman or sophomore?
In effect, the smaller P5 and D1A schools are going to become like AA or Single A teams, that develop QB talent for the blue bloods. With few exceptions, the best QB recruits will start shunning the traditional powers (except for schools with a current QB juru--like Lincoln Riley), and will start going to lesser schools to start their careers. Unless they promise the recruit the starting job, the blue bloods will only be able to recruit lesser talent--essentially game managers to make sure they have an insurance plan if their guy goes down.
It has always been true that QBs need snaps/PT more than anything else in order to develop. Yet, for the most part, kids have been willing to sit and wait their turn at the traditional power programs because (1) they want to win (i.e., they want the best teammates when it's their turn), (2) those schools can claim to have the best resources for development (coaches, equipment, etc.), and (3) when the current starter's time was up, another QB on the roster took over 95% of the time because other options were both limited and risky (and bad for the lockerroom).
However, #3 is no longer a given. With the portal, proven QBs with an actual track record at the college level are readily available. Because of their game time experience, they are actually less risky (in many cases) than this year's backup or the promising incoming freshman. We all know how much P5 coaches value experience.
When a QB recruit goes to a P5 powerhouse to wait his turn, he is essentially forfeiting the experience that is necessary for his development and that his coaches prize so much in picking a starter. So doesn't it make sense to start at a smaller school where you know you can get PT as a freshman or sophomore?
In effect, the smaller P5 and D1A schools are going to become like AA or Single A teams, that develop QB talent for the blue bloods. With few exceptions, the best QB recruits will start shunning the traditional powers (except for schools with a current QB juru--like Lincoln Riley), and will start going to lesser schools to start their careers. Unless they promise the recruit the starting job, the blue bloods will only be able to recruit lesser talent--essentially game managers to make sure they have an insurance plan if their guy goes down.
