Politics

[Irish#1]

Your confusion does not = Vortex. The conversation regarding ID was to address fraud.

I didn't make that claim, I said their priorities would be on feeding their family first. If they other priorities that are more important they aren't going to prioritize going to get a new ID to vote.

That's a very nice story. You are not poor or in a age cohort in which voter turnout is an issue. Unfortunately, there are numerous academic papers done on this very topic which show food/shelter etc. are more important to people.



You can bring it? But if you've registered using a different ID, and then the rules change on which ID is acceptable but you don't have the one you can see how thats an issue.

Absolutely invented. There is no benefit because there is no fraud issue. You don't get Lasik surgery if you don't need it.

I bet we've had voter fraud intentional or unintentional in every election dating back to who knows when? It's not on the magnitude that Trump claims but it's there. Mayor Daley made a career out of voter fraud. I'll say again, if we require ID, then you can also reduce the opportunity for someone like Trump to cry foul. Wouldn't you love to take away one of his crying points?

 

[NorthDakota]

You can bring it? But if you've registered using a different ID, and then the rules change on which ID is acceptable but you don't have the one you can see how thats an issue.

Absolutely invented. There is no benefit because there is no fraud issue. You don't get Lasik surgery if you don't need it.

Then change your registration?

People look at rules to things all the time and consider changes to improve things. The benefit is (more) people having (more) confidence in elections.

 

[TorontoGold]

I bet we've had voter fraud intentional or unintentional in every election dating back to who knows when? It's not on the magnitude that Trump claims but it's there. Mayor Daley made a career out of voter fraud. I'll say again, if we require ID, then you can also reduce the opportunity for someone like Trump to cry foul. Wouldn't you love to take away one of his crying points?

But the rate at which it happens is not at a statistically significant rate. Like using the Heritage Foundations portal there has been 1,499 instances of voter fraud - that is including instances of people screwing up the address on their ballot. That is since 1979.

That's almost equivalent to the per year amount of lightning deaths.

Then change your registration?

People look at rules to things all the time and consider changes to improve things. The benefit is (more) people having (more) confidence in elections.

Sure, but a lot of people just tune into the election in election season and assume that they're ok to vote in the next election.

Of course, but there needs to be tangible benefit to make changes. The impact of shrinking the voter base to appease people who've been duped into the belief that there is voter fraud is a net negative, BobbyOk types will always say there is voter fraud no matter how many changes are made.

 

[GATTACA!]

Hilarious "where is the evidence!" like your google machine doesn't work? Type in election fraud and this is the first non-news link on the google. Voter Fraud Map: Election Fraud Database | The Heritage Foundation

Maybe nobody responds b/c your claim is so absurd on it's face it shouldn't warrant a response. Or maybe you are black in NY and don't know what a computer is.

Okay I went through and did your homework for you.

I went back and checked every year since 2020 since some times the results trickle in and looked for all of the instances that voter ID would have or should have stopped a case of voter fraud in the 2020 general election. I came up with 11 total cases. Only 4 of which took place in states that don't already require an ID.

So in an election with over 150,000,000 votes we have 4 confirmed cases. Yes that seems like a problem worth fixing!

It's also funny looking through all of those results and seeing that at least 9/10 are republicans lol.

 

[NorthDakota]

Sure, but a lot of people just tune into the election in election season and assume that they're ok to vote in the next election.

Of course, but there needs to be tangible benefit to make changes. The impact of shrinking the voter base to appease people who've been duped into the belief that there is voter fraud is a net negative, BobbyOk types will always say there is voter fraud no matter how many changes are made.

I wasn't aware there needs to be tangible benefits to make changes to laws? Of course some people will always say there is fraud. That doesn't seem particularly relevant though.

 

[TorontoGold]

I wasn't aware there needs to be tangible benefits to make changes to laws? Of course some people will always say there is fraud. That doesn't seem particularly relevant though.

Then what's the point of laws? What are recent laws that address matters with incident rates at lightning strike deaths? Of course it's relevant, what other issues do people focus on that happen at the same rates that should be addressed?

 

[Irish#1]

But the rate at which it happens is not at a statistically significant rate. Like using the Heritage Foundations portal there has been 1,499 instances of voter fraud - that is including instances of people screwing up the address on their ballot. That is since 1979.

That's almost equivalent to the per year amount of lightning deaths.


Sure, but a lot of people just tune into the election in election season and assume that they're ok to vote in the next election.

Of course, but there needs to be tangible benefit to make changes. The impact of shrinking the voter base to appease people who've been duped into the belief that there is voter fraud is a net negative, BobbyOk types will always say there is voter fraud no matter how many changes are made.

Never said it was a significant rate, but why not eliminate it all together? Is that a pipe dream? Probably is, but not being significant isn't a reason not to get as close to 0% fraud as possible. I suspect that not all fraud is reported, so Heritage probably doesn't have the most accurate number.

 

[RDU Irish]

Okay I went through and did your homework for you.

I went back and checked every year since 2020 since some times the results trickle in and looked for all of the instances that voter ID would have or should have stopped a case of voter fraud in the 2020 general election. I came up with 11 total cases. Only 4 of which took place in states that don't already require an ID.

So in an election with over 150,000,000 votes we have 4 confirmed cases. Yes that seems like a problem worth fixing!

It's also funny looking through all of those results and seeing that at least 9/10 are republicans lol.

Your bogey was zero - you lose.

Also you are claiming something very hard to prove only happens when prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. Speeders only exist on the side of the road behind a cop car and even then they don't exist if the ticket is reduced or dismissed in court. The entire busload of fraud I witnessed does not exist b/c it was not found guilty in a court of law. Newsflash tons of crimes are not prosecuted Polly.

 

[TorontoGold]

Never said it was a significant rate, but why not eliminate it all together? Is that a pipe dream? Probably is, but not being significant isn't a reason not to get as close to 0% fraud as possible. I suspect that not all fraud is reported, so Heritage probably doesn't have the most accurate number.

It is effectively zero. 1,499 cases over 41 years with the amount of votes cast over those 41 years would not register as statistically significant until you used a confidence factor of like 99.9999999999999999999%, legitimately it could be even higher than that.

Think of it this way, would you change each utility pole for an incremental decrease in the chance that lightning could strike it? That is under the assumption that the change will actually work. You would not do that.

 

[GATTACA!]

Your bogey was zero - you lose.

Also you are claiming something very hard to prove only happens when prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. Speeders only exist on the side of the road behind a cop car and even then they don't exist if the ticket is reduced or dismissed in court. The entire busload of fraud I witnessed does not exist b/c it was not found guilty in a court of law. Newsflash tons of crimes are not prosecuted Polly.

Or it wasn't fraud because you have no idea what the fuck you're talking about.

Yes they're granular enough to be prosecuting single voters who happened to have voted and sent in a mail in ballot to another state, but not catching entire busloads lol.

 

[GATTACA!]

It is effectively zero. 1,499 cases over 41 years with the amount of votes cast over those 41 years would not register as statistically significant until you used a confidence factor of like 99.9999999999999999999%, legitimately it could be even higher than that.

Think of it this way, would you change each utility pole for an incremental decrease in the chance that lightning could strike it? That is under the assumption that the change will actually work. You would not do that.

Also almost none of those 1,499 have anything to do with voter ID. Just quickly scrolling through them at least 50% are felons who aren't allowed to vote but cast votes anyways. That 1,499 also includes shit like people forging signatures for ballot initiatives, so nothing todo with actual voting.

 

[NorthDakota]

Also almost none of those 1,499 have anything to do with voter ID. Just quickly scrolling through them at least 50% are felons who aren't allowed to vote but cast votes anyways. That 1,499 also includes shit like people forging signatures for ballot initiatives, so nothing todo with actual voting.

Several members of the North Dakota State football team got busted for this about 10-12 years ago lol

 

[Irish#1]

It is effectively zero. 1,499 cases over 41 years with the amount of votes cast over those 41 years would not register as statistically significant until you used a confidence factor of like 99.9999999999999999999%, legitimately it could be even higher than that.

Think of it this way, would you change each utility pole for an incremental decrease in the chance that lightning could strike it? That is under the assumption that the change will actually work. You would not do that.

Do you honestly think every incident of fraud is reported?

 

[GATTACA!]

Several members of the North Dakota State football team got busted for this about 10-12 years ago lol

What were they trying to get on the ballot? Lol

 

[TorontoGold]

Also almost none of those 1,499 have anything to do with voter ID. Just quickly scrolling through them at least 50% are felons who aren't allowed to vote but cast votes anyways. That 1,499 also includes shit like people forging signatures for ballot initiatives, so nothing todo with actual voting.

Oh I know, I'm trying to be as generous as possible that each case is some Dem operative signing up people to vote.

Do you honestly think every incident of fraud is reported?

No. This is literally my job to take a sample population and to assess the risk of misstatement. If my population size is 159.6M (votes cast in 2020), my materiality would be 1% of total votes (1.59M) , so my trivial threshold would be 5% of that (79,500). Even if the 1,499 happened in a singular year it would still be well below trivial.

It would need to get to 80K to register as a potential threat. I would love to see any support for fraud occurring 53x (thats if its 1,499 per year) more than what's being reported.

Look at the states that conduct post-election audits Post-Election Audits

Eight states don't conduct audits - the results will shock you! Only 1 is blue. States have incredibly detailed audits done every election, both blue and red, if there was a pervasive fraud risk it would have been discovered.

The only way that you can "fraud is undercounted by a non-trivial amount" is if all states are blind to significant risk factors, and the 50 firms who developed the testing were wrong. I know you won't disagree with them or say you have access to information that they don't, so you're left with arguing that instead of 1,499 cases it should be what 14,999? Which would still be a trivial figure.

At this point you're just arguing for the sake of it because I know you're not arrogant to think that you know better than the 50 states and firms they have who conduct election auditing that would have picked up on non-trivial fraud.

 

[Irish#1]

First, I'm not arguing. Second, You're trying to explain to me that there isn't a lot of fraud, but please show me where I said there was. I've just been talking about ensuring everyone has the proper ID to vote.

 

[NorthDakota]

What were they trying to get on the ballot? Lol

They were being paid by an org to get signatures and I believe they just used a phone book to find names/addresses and signed for them I think. Judging by the timeframe, probably either marijuana stuff or University of North Dakota nickname stuff.

 

[TorontoGold]

I bet we've had voter fraud intentional or unintentional in every election dating back to who knows when? It's not on the magnitude that Trump claims but it's there. Mayor Daley made a career out of voter fraud. I'll say again, if we require ID, then you can also reduce the opportunity for someone like Trump to cry foul. Wouldn't you love to take away one of his crying points?

First, I'm not arguing. Second, You're trying to explain to me that there isn't a lot of fraud, but please show me where I said there was. I've just been talking about ensuring everyone has the proper ID to vote.

Right there. If you're not addressing a fraud concern with tightening ID concerns, then what is your position or even the point of what you're saying? Just that "proper ID!" but states already require ID, so what do you want changed? Just that people should have ID? People don't get ballots without registering and providing ID, and if its a first time voter I've read that they still provide ID when voting in California?

Essentially it boils down to "fixing" and "issue" that you don't believe to actually be an issue?

 

[Irish#1]

Where I said, You're trying to explain to me that there isn't a lot of fraud, but please show me where I said there was, I should have said, You're trying to explain to me that there isn't a lot of massive fraud, but please show me where I said there was.

I still think there is fraud whether intentional or unintentional and it's not on any large or massive level. It's more localized where it's easier to get away with it. While you're okay with that because what has been reported is small, I'm not.

Going back to my original point and getting out of the Vortex (congrats, you got me), if people are truly concerned about voting, they'll find the time to get the proper ID. I don't know how to be any clearer, so I'm done trying to explain.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

This is my new favorite culture war.

Nothing oozes blissful serenity and joy like an average Republican in 2024. Hell, I can feel the vibes in these threads just flowing out of my computer screen. Just let the joy waft over you, folks. My Boomer Trumper uncles are the hap hap happiest people I know, indeed.

@ulukinatme said it best: the need for mental health services is going to be needed in the future. I would add that we are probably in need NOW as well, but that's probably the unhappiness talking as I refuse to be content.

Our township passed a referendum 3 years ago for a mental health board. It's been held up by the local smiling, whistling, ever so happy Republican board of trustees and supervisor. All of whom are not in good standing with many of their own voters right now (for this and other reasons) and have municipal elections coming in 2025. Even the local Republican voter people are unhappy. Can't imagine why.

​

 

[Irish#1]

LOL

McCarthy calls Gaetz ‘Hunter Biden of the Republican Party,’ backs challenger​

McCarthy calls Gaetz ‘Hunter Biden of the Republican Party,’ backs challenger

Kevin McCarthy told Politico he is he is backing former naval aviator Aaron Dimmock in the primary.

www.newsnationnow.com

 

[NorthDakota]

LOL

McCarthy calls Gaetz ‘Hunter Biden of the Republican Party,’ backs challenger​

McCarthy calls Gaetz ‘Hunter Biden of the Republican Party,’ backs challenger

Kevin McCarthy told Politico he is he is backing former naval aviator Aaron Dimmock in the primary.

www.newsnationnow.com

Gaetz getting taken out by McCarthy would be very funny. Super conservative district with a giant military presence.

 

[ulukinatme]

This is my new favorite culture war.

Nothing oozes blissful serenity and joy like an average Republican in 2024. Hell, I can feel the vibes in these threads just flowing out of my computer screen. Just let the joy waft over you, folks. My Boomer Trumper uncles are the hap hap happiest people I know, indeed.

@ulukinatme said it best: the need for mental health services is going to be needed in the future. I would add that we are probably in need NOW as well, but that's probably the unhappiness talking as I refuse to be content.

Our township passed a referendum 3 years ago for a mental health board. It's been held up by the local smiling, whistling, ever so happy Republican board of trustees and supervisor. All of whom are not in good standing with many of their own voters right now (for this and other reasons) and have municipal elections coming in 2025. Even the local Republican voter people are unhappy. Can't imagine why.

​

I think it was mentioned earlier in the thread and after the initial response, but there's a good chance the data may be skewed. Many conservatives could be showing lower mental health numbers compared to liberal counterparts because they may be less likely to see a doctor and would rather just "deal with it." There's still a stigma about mental health, and it's something that many conservatives would probably rather sweep under the rug or dismiss rather than do something about it. It does seem to be a growing problem however, and at least we can agree that people will need more help with it. I don't know if the average Republican voter is necessarily unhappy in general, but I'm sure many aren't pleased with the economic impacts that resulted post pandemic.

 

[RDU Irish]

Or it wasn't fraud because you have no idea what the fuck you're talking about.

Yes they're granular enough to be prosecuting single voters who happened to have voted and sent in a mail in ballot to another state, but not catching entire busloads lol.

More than zero = you were wrong. You set the bar, not me.

 

[RDU Irish]

I think it was mentioned earlier in the thread and after the initial response, but there's a good chance the data may be skewed. Many conservatives could be showing lower mental health numbers compared to liberal counterparts because they may be less likely to see a doctor and would rather just "deal with it." There's still a stigma about mental health, and it's something that many conservatives would probably rather sweep under the rug or dismiss rather than do something about it. It does seem to be a growing problem however, and at least we can agree that people will need more help with it. I don't know if the average Republican voter is necessarily unhappy in general, but I'm sure many aren't pleased with the economic impacts that resulted post pandemic.

I don't think it is that complex. Those who project their problems on others are mentally unwell. Those that take personal accountability for their actions and look within to solve their problems are a threat to democracy and literally Hitler. The mental health skew is HEAVILY female - the bitterest, angriest people I know are SWLFs and the most pathetic men I know are married to WLFs that aren't single yet.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

I post this not for the COVID debate but for further evidence that these talking heads think the American public is so ignorant &/or naive to the point they can flip flop so fast on a controversial subject & no one notices.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

I think it was mentioned earlier in the thread and after the initial response, but there's a good chance the data may be skewed. Many conservatives could be showing lower mental health numbers compared to liberal counterparts because they may be less likely to see a doctor and would rather just "deal with it." There's still a stigma about mental health, and it's something that many conservatives would probably rather sweep under the rug or dismiss rather than do something about it. It does seem to be a growing problem however, and at least we can agree that people will need more help with it. I don't know if the average Republican voter is necessarily unhappy in general, but I'm sure many aren't pleased with the economic impacts that resulted post pandemic.

I think you're spot on.

As a nation, we barely crack the top 25 when it comes to happiest.

Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Sweden, Netherlands, Norway are all at the top of the pack. Australia and New Zealand as well.

 

[ulukinatme]

I think you're spot on.

As a nation, we barely crack the top 25 when it comes to happiest.

Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Sweden, Netherlands, Norway are all at the top of the pack. Australia and New Zealand as well.

Wonder what the common denominator is among those countries. I could see them all being more outdoorsy, they probably touch grass more than the rest of us.

 

[Bishop2b5]

Wonder what the common denominator is among those countries. I could see them all being more outdoorsy, they probably touch grass more than the rest of us.

Well, that or all the blonde women with more relaxed sexual inhibitions.

 

[drayer54]

LOL

McCarthy calls Gaetz ‘Hunter Biden of the Republican Party,’ backs challenger​

McCarthy calls Gaetz ‘Hunter Biden of the Republican Party,’ backs challenger

Kevin McCarthy told Politico he is he is backing former naval aviator Aaron Dimmock in the primary.

www.newsnationnow.com

Lol- he's not wrong. I actually thought Gaetz was smarter than expected when I saw him on a panel, but the guy is a total dud who probably banged kids. Get him out.
“Gaetz is the Hunter Biden of the Republican Party,” McCarthy said. “He’s got an opponent who is pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, trained at Pensacola, went to the Naval Academy and flew jets to defend us while Gaetz was getting kicked out of high school, buying coke and paying minors for sex.”