RDU Irish
Catholics vs. Cousins
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Third Party candidates tend to screw over one party or the other.
Ralph Nader albeit was not a serious challenger but took more than enough votes to prevent Al Gore from winning the election.
Ross Perot may have been the one candidate that took votes from both sides fairly evenly.
Teddy Roosevelt, when he came back from his post presidential Africa safari was pretty PO'd at Taft and the direction he had taken the party. He pretty much screwed Taft in 1912 when he ran as an independent. In fact Taft got like 12 electoral votes or something along those lines.
I don't disagree, rather I submit Paul would draw from both sides the MOST if both sides put up old names like Bush vs. Clinton. A lot of people on both sides of the aisle are tired of the short bench from which we are pulling leaders.
Perot is a great example, he got 19% of the vote in 1992 and 8% in a half assed run in 1996. I think discontent is much higher than it was then and social media makes it easier to make a third party push. Plus, how many people didn't want to "waste" their vote on someone who was so far out of the running? In a tighter race, I think he picks up another 3-4 points minimum.
So I can make a case for Perot being preferred by almost 1/4th of voters. 20 years later, I think the level of discontent is much higher and fewer people identify as closely with Rs and Ds.
The interesting thing would be the dynamic if he were able to surpass one of the other candidates. Negative campaigning is so powerful, how many people are voting against someone? if you are voting against Democrats and a third party passes the Republican in the polls, are you going to vote the third party to improve the chance of beating the guy you hate?
Wouldn't it be fascinating if a third party undermined negative campaigns? Negative ad on one candidate helps the other two and not necessarily the one who paid for it.