Politics

[Polish Leppy 22]

In America churches are shrinking (except Muslims) and the conservative right wing is shrinking. The more they shrink, the more wealthy, paranoid, shriveled old hold outs try to cling on to their power by fianancing stooges to spread fear and block progress.

I continue to believe that Romney never had a chance.

No matter the outcome, you are all group of great of people and I've enjoyed reading this thread over the last few months. Thanks for all the mostly friendly discussions.

I'm not smart, but I know someone who is.

Bob

If churches and the right wing were shrinking, the huge swing in the House of Reps wouldn't have happened the way it did in the 2010 mid term election. It was statistically the biggest swing since the 1950's. And to state that Romney doesn't have a chance is simply...well, kool aid talk.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

If churches and the right wing were shrinking, the huge swing in the House of Reps wouldn't have happened the way it did in the 2010 mid term election. It was statistically the biggest swing since the 1950's. And to state that Romney doesn't have a chance is simply...well, kool aid talk.

Church affiliation is shrinking. That's objectively true. I don't know if it means that the right wing is shrinking.

An article asserting the independent vote thinking...certainly a liberal source.

Independents won’t save Mitt - Salon.com

It's clear that Romney has closed the early voting gap. The question is whether or not these were already likely/enthusiastic voters. With Obama, I think it maybe represents a larger percentage of people who may or may not have voted. Not necessarily true for Romney, in my opinion. But, I'm wearing blue-tinted glasses.

 

[WaveDomer]

I just spent the past 30 minutes looking at the electoral maps and associated polling in each of the battleground states. I believe Obama will win Ohio, Nev., Colo., Wisc., Iowa, NH.

Even if Romney wins North Carolina (which I think he will), Florida and Virginia (where many polls now say Obama leads), he doesn't get to 270.

My view of the polls tells me that Obama will get to anywhere between 290 and 332 Electoral votes. If Obama gets to 290, Romney would win VA (13) and Florida (29) and still not cross the finish line victorious. Even if he won Ohio (18), VA and Florida, he'd only get to 266 electoral votes. What addiitonal states are you suggesting he will pick up to move past 270?

This is how I'm seeing it. it it starting to look like Obama will win Ohio (18), Wisc. (10), Nev. (6), Colo. (9), Iowa (6) and NH (4). This would give the president 290 electoral votes and a second term. If Obama takes VA, he is at 303. And, if his ground game allows him to squeak out Florida he is at 332.

Would like to hear the path you are describing that gets Romney to 310.

Here is Obama's biggest worry. Republicans are traditionally Election Day voters while Dems favor absentee or early voting. The Obama campaign has spent their time trying to get their likely voters to vote early and pad the lead or get those votes locked up. Romney's camp has spent their time getting less likely voters to vote early and are counting on "broken glass" voters voting on Election Day. So you would expect the early game to significantly favor Obama. The problem for Obama's team is that it's not. He is down across the board from '08 and Romney is up from McCain in ''08. The difference in Ohio is actually more than what Obama won by in '08. He's down something like 150 thousand and Romney is up 106 thousand from McCain. I think in Cuyahoga County, which is heavy Dem, Obama is down 14% in early voting.

So it's all getting out the vote now. Polls are going to be whatever. I think pollsters get a 9% response rate now, which is bad. And yeah, as JayHawk pointed out, they take polls on certain demographics. However, when a CNN poll comes out today with +11 Dems, that doesn't reflect the reality on the ground. I think '08 was +7, maybe +8, Dem and there is no way President Obama is getting the same support he did in '08. Republican enthusiasm is off the charts.

And the thing about Nate Silver is that he is right if the polls are right. In '10 he wrongly predicted a number of races which were wrongly predicted by the polls. He also said in '08 that the candidate who wins independents will necessarily win the election. He doesn't say that now. And for Nate Silver I can point out Michael Barone who predicts a Romney landslide.

The Romney camp is pretty optimistic and at this point I think he gets FL, NC, VA, and CO which puts him at 257. I think the rest are close with Nevada and Penn. probably being out of reach. I think the scenarios are: close Obama win, close Romney win or Romney landslide. I don't think an Obama landslide is possible. But the win is all that matters anyway.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Additionally...the Redskins won yesterday. I love history.

 

[RDU Irish]

Early Presidential Vote 2012: Where Things Stand in the Final Hours - ABC News

Another interesting piece full of half-stats.

"In Florida in 2008, registered Democrats cast 44.9 percent of the early votes, while registered Republicans only cast 37.9 percent. This year, that gap is down as well. Registered Democrats have accounted for 42.6 percent of the early vote, registered Republicans 39.5 percent."

So Florida = Dems -2.3%, Reps +1.6%, Ind +0.7% (assumed) - No scale provided to measure "enthusiasm" change.

Nevada - Dems -3.7%, Reps +1.2%, Ind +2.5%(assumed) - Not as much ground as the previous article suggests which leads me to say Romney can't make up the ground - until I figure Mormons make the difference here with 11% of Nevada's population giving Romney a good shot.

 

[WaveDomer]

I haven't been posting in this thread because I got tired of all the back and forth and demonization on both sides, but I have a question for both sides.

A number of the polls show ties or statistical ties with O or R lean or an O lean in battleground states. However, almost all of those same polls say that Independents are going R anywhere from 13-23%. They also show that the economy is the biggest factor for the majority of voters and the breakdowns show people prefer R on that by wide margins. Also, many pundits from both sides seem to believe R wins in voter enthusiasm.

What do you think makes for the disconnect within these polls? Is it that the O get out the vote is thought to be that much better? Is it the D/R/I breakdown in the pools makes up for it? Do you feel they are accurate? Why?

Happy Tuesday tomorrow to one and all no matter how it turns out GO IRISH!

Here's a good article on that.

 

[RDU Irish]

Additionally...the Redskins won yesterday. I love history.

Hey, wacko conservative with his bad facts, Newton beat RGIII (as if they were ever on the field at the same time).

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Here's a good article on that.

The state vs. national polls aren't that much different anymore. The national polls have trended gently to Obama. He now holds about a half a point advantage in the RCP average, which includes a Romney +5 from Gallup's poll that hasn't been updated pre-Sandy.


EDIT: They've dropped the Gallup poll. My mistake.

 

[WaveDomer]

The state vs. national polls aren't that much different anymore. The national polls have trended gently to Obama. He now holds about a half a point advantage in the RCP average, which includes a Romney +5 from Gallup's poll that hasn't been updated pre-Sandy.


EDIT: They've dropped the Gallup poll. My mistake.

Yeah, that article is little bit old, at least in terms of how fast polls go up and down, but I thought it was interesting overall in terms of what he was asking.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Yeah, that article is little bit old, at least in terms of how fast polls go up and down, but I thought it was interesting overall in terms of what he was asking.

Sure. This stuff is fascinating to read. It's why I like Nate Silver, actually. He explains his methodology very carefully.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Gallup is back up...Romney by 1 among likely voters and Obama by 3 among registered voters. Big tilt from the last Gallup poll (+4 swing toward Obama)

All about getting out the vote.

 

[GoIrish41]

Gallup is back up...Romney by 1 among likely voters and Obama by 3 among registered voters. Big tilt from the last Gallup poll (+4 swing toward Obama)

All about getting out the vote.

most thought the last Gallup poll was an a bit of an outlier anyway. They are just back on a similar level with most of the other polls now.

 

[RDU Irish]

Why isn’t Oregon a slam dunk for President Obama?

Obama is at 47% here and that never bodes well for an incumbent in a two party race. It sounds like Romney quietly spent some money here too.

5% Mormon population could turn out disproportionately too.

PA looks like a pipe dream though. Even with Sandy suppressing eastern PA vote.

 

[GoIrish41]

Why isn’t Oregon a slam dunk for President Obama?

Obama is at 47% here and that never bodes well for an incumbent in a two party race. It sounds like Romney quietly spent some money here too.

Romney has no shot in Oregon. If he spent money there he wasted it.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

I think Ohio will go Republican because of the voting system but I think Colorado & Virginia will give Obama the election.

 

[RubberSoul]

Romney internals have him up in Ohio and tied in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. i still believe that he wins Ohio and either Either Wisconsin or Iowa. Anything can happen and it will come down to turnout. I wouldnt be surprised if one or the other barely wins several swing states giving a much bigger electoral win than a popular vote win.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Why isn’t Oregon a slam dunk for President Obama?

Obama is at 47% here and that never bodes well for an incumbent in a two party race. It sounds like Romney quietly spent some money here too.

If Obama loses Oregon, the entire election is likely swinging in a way that only Dick Morris is projecting. But, then, he projected that McCain was about to secure the undecided vote and would probably ride it into the white house.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Romney internals have him up in Ohio and tied in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. i still believe that he wins Ohio and either Either Wisconsin or Iowa. Anything can happen and ot will come down to turnout.

People only leak internals to keep people optimistic and motivated. I wouldn't trust them.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

This is pretty much what I think.
Romney, Obama, and economics: The economy’s already recovering, so whoever wins will look like a genius. - Slate Magazine

Because...don't forget...(not revisionist...it was their headline in 2008):
Black Man Given Nation's Worst Job | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

 

[GoIrish41]

Romney internals have him up in Ohio and tied in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. i still believe that he wins Ohio and either Either Wisconsin or Iowa. Anything can happen and it will come down to turnout. I wouldnt be surprised if one or the other barely wins several swing states giving a much bigger electoral win than a popular vote win.

What are they going to say the internals say? No way he will win in Pennsylvania and I think polls I've seen over the past day or so have him even further behind in Wisconsin. He has consistently been behind in Ohio almost the entirety of this election in almost every poll. He either has the worst polsters in the business or they are deliberately misleading the public (I know, shocker).

 

[Downinthebend]

Why should anybody vote for either Romney or Obama? Does nobody value consistency any more?

 

[RubberSoul]

People only leak internals to keep people optimistic and motivated. I wouldn't trust them.

I only pay attention to gallup and internals. It will be interesting asthis race is a toss up. Its really simple with incumbants: either youre happy with the last 4 years and think the country is going in the rivht direction or you dont. Most people complicate ot because they have lifelong republican or democratic affiliations.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

We also need to remember the 7-eleven metric.
Fast, convenient. 7-Eleven®. Oh thank Heaven®.

Obama holds a nice lead. And this result has bee consistent with the winner in the last 3 elections.
7-Eleven election accurately predicts presidential election winner – Eatocracy - CNN.com Blogs

Just sayin'...

 

[dshans]

http://www.irishenvy.com/forums/leprechaun-lounge/70791-happy-birthday-dshans.html

 

[RDU Irish]

Thanks Dshans. For the record, I voted Friday, not straight ticket as some might suspect.

If Obama wins with 300+ EVs I may put away my tinfoil hat for the rest of eternity.

 

[dshans]

Thanks Dshans. For the record, I voted Friday, not straight ticket as some might suspect.

If Obama wins with 300+ EVs I may put away my tinfoil hat for the rest of eternity.

Call me a stickler for tradition, but i eschewed the offer of early voting, an absentee ballot or even an offer for a shuttle bus to my polling site.

I will stick with my habit/tradition of strolling (this year with a cane) across the park to my polling place. Just who I vote for is up for grabs in any given election. I'm sad to say that in all of the elections I've written in my own name, I've lost. Stupid electorate.

I will continue to vote in each and every election until I am no longer able to draw a breath.

Go Irish! Go America!

 

[BobD]

http://www.irishenvy.com/forums/leprechaun-lounge/70791-happy-birthday-dshans.html

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[Buster Bluth]

Why should anybody vote for either Romney or Obama? Does nobody value consistency any more?

I'm voting Mitt Romney and then writing in Ron Paul for every other office. haha

If Romney doesn't get it done in office I'll be libertarian or bust in 2016.

I don't understand why the libertarian movement--not the Tea Party malarkey--isn't concentrated on winning some Senate primaries. A libertarian has no chance to win the Presidency, but they could take ~6 seats and then wouldn't they actually control the Senate, thus Congress?

 

[Old North State Irish]

I am going to come back and post one more pre-election thought. I normally have kept my politics close to the chest as this is a polarizing and personal issue. I cannot in good faith with the other side wish them good luck as this is not a football game or season. I truly understand that if you lean democaratic you feel the opposite of how I stand. This to me (as with the folks on the other side) is about me looking at my two young boys and the immediate and long term future of this country that I so love. I have waited a long time for this day to come and hope it comes out the way that I want. If it does not, I have no chose but to live with it. The best part of the election coming and going is that we will get back to being a "family" in respects to Notre Dame. I wasn't fortunate enough to get accepted into Notre Dame when I graduated and it was my dream. I did get a great degree and have a job that I am proud of and my life is good. It is my goal for my two boys to graduate from UND. My father has a sixth grade education, born in a house and raised in Gravel Switch, Ky (not a joke). This country will come together no matter how it goes tomorrow and we will move on. I hope that you all get out and vote and be safe.
Mark

 

[IrishJayhawk]

I am going to come back and post one more pre-election thought. I normally have kept my politics close to the chest as this is a polarizing and personal issue. I cannot in good faith with the other side good luck as this is not a football game or season. I truly understand that if you lean democaratic you feel the opposite of how I stand. This to me (as with the folks on the other side) is about me looking at my two young boys and the immediate and long term future of this country that I so love. I have waited a long time for this day to come and hope it comes out the way that I want. If it does not, I have no chose but to live with it. The best part of the election coming and going is that we will get back to being a "family" in respects to Notre Dame. I wasn't fortunate enough to get excepted into Notre Dame when I graduated and it was my dream. I did get a great degree and have a job that I am proud of and my life is good. It is my goal for the two boys to graduate from UND. My father has a sixth grade education born and raised in Gravel Switch, Ky (not a joke). This country will come together no matter how it goes tomorrow and we will move on. I hope that you all get out and vote and be safe.
Mark

Bravo. We certainly disagree on many political policies. But, I certainly respect that you have sincere convictions. I do too.

We will rally around the next president, I hope.

So, best of luck...to the Irish.