Politics

[GoIrish41]

I'm not defending Nate Silver or any other pollster, but it seems to me that if that is how you make your living, you would place accuracy of your methods above partisanship. A pollster who is way off loses credibility and relavance that are the source of his/her livlihood. The fact is, come Wednesday we'll all know who was right and who wasn't.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

I'm not defending Nate Silver or any other pollster, but it seems to me that if that is how you make your living, you would place accuracy of your methods above partisanship. A pollster who is way off loses credibility and relavance that are the source of his/her livlihood. The fact is, come Wednesday we'll all know who was right and who wasn't.

^This

His reputation and earning power are entirely tied up in his accuracy.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Using his evidence, 1980 results were 7 points more favorable to Republicans than polls indicated. Given I view Obama as a "welcome back Carter" president, I predict more similarities to that election than 2008. And state polling was in its infancy so hard to pull much from that data in 1980.

It also looks like a statistical anomoly that 2008 results happened to have zero dispersion from the mean, thus resulting in his "incredible" accuracy. Odds of that level of accuracy in the future seem low to me, especially considering a sample set of 10 with a range of outcomes of +7.2 Dem to +3.2 Rep with only one of the last five presidential elections being + Rep.

Now look at incumbents on the state level.
1984 Dems +.1%
1992 Dems +2.9%
1996 Rep +.1%
2004 Dems +.8%

Challenger outperforms polls consistently, when they win they outperform by a large margin, hmmmm.......

Trust me...he knows all of the things you've just outlined. They are accounted for in his model.

Incidentally, this isn't the question you raised. The so-called sampling bias is also explained. Pollsters sample by demographic and people identify their party affiliation. Affiliation is much more fluid than, say, whether you're black or not.

Another excellent column this morning.
Nov. 1: The Simple Case for Saying Obama Is the Favorite - NYTimes.com

 

[Bluto]

Well, nobody I know in the northeast shares the fondness the rest of you guys apparently have for state government, so I'm not going to make a spirited defense of how the State of New York is run. I will say, however, that I'd much rather have the state be broke and the people making money than the other way around. What share of federal revenue do you suppose is generated directly or indirectly through that tiny little island at the mouth of the Hudson River? So yeah, we'll take our seat at (the head of) the table when we discuss how the rest of the country is going to spend our money.

This is an interesting statement. The same dynamic is at play in California on the state level. That is to say the larger metropolitan areas (LA, Bay Area) bankroll much of the states general fund.

 

[irishpat183]

^This

His reputation and earning power are entirely tied up in his accuracy.

So is an NFL kickers....doesn't mean they always make the FG.

Hell, I've been wrong before. (as ridiculous as that seems)

 

[GoIrish41]

Outlook on NY in 2013....

Eighteen states expect gaps in excess of 5 percent of their general fund budgets, with
13 states projecting gaps equal to or greater than 10 percent. The largest shortfalls
are expected in Nevada (40 percent) and New York (20.4 percent).


It's a black hole. There is no "money" in NY...only IOU's

Tell us how they do it in Houston Pat. ... Oh, never mind, I just looked it up.

Houston grappling with decade of deficit spending - Houston Chronicle

How do you keep from bumping your head on the ceiling of your glass house when you are up on that high horse?

 

[irishpat183]

Well, nobody I know in the northeast shares the fondness the rest of you guys apparently have for state government, so I'm not going to make a spirited defense of how the State of New York is run. I will say, however, that I'd much rather have the state be broke and the people making money than the other way around. What share of federal revenue do you suppose is generated directly or indirectly through that tiny little island at the mouth of the Hudson River? So yeah, we'll take our seat at (the head of) the table when we discuss how the rest of the country is going to spend our money.

But the people really aren't "making money"...not with those tax rates and COI.

"The cost of living in New York, NY is 113.6% higher than in Houston, TX . Therefore, you would have to earn a salary of $213,589 to maintain your current standard of living. "

At 100k, you'd have to make OVER DOUBLE to live in NY. You're not really "making money" up there. It's just ridiculously expensive to live there, so they have to pay like that giving you the false sense of "making money".

And don't get me started on the taxes......

 

[IrishJayhawk]

So is an NFL kickers....doesn't mean they always make the FG.

Hell, I've been wrong before. (as ridiculous as that seems)

You just pulled a brilliant bait and switch. Congrats!

You haven't been arguing that he might be wrong (by the way...he's just calling a probability, not predicting a victory). You've been arguing that his partisan affiliation (NY Times) means he's biased.

That's like saying the Vikings kicker was a Bears fan growing up, so he's going to try to miss his FG attempt to win the game in Soldier Field.

 

[irishpat183]

You just pulled a brilliant bait and switch. Congrats!

You haven't been arguing that he might be wrong (by the way...he's just calling a probability, not predicting a victory). You've been arguing that his partisan affiliation (NY Times) means he's biased.

That's like saying the Vikings kicker was a Bears fan growing up, so he's going to try to miss his FG attempt to win the game in Soldier Field.

I was pointing out that you can throw your rep on the line all you want...still doesn't mean that you're going to be anymore accurate than the next guy in the industry who also has a lot vested in his predictions.

It's entirely partisian. We believe who predicts our guy to win.

 

[irishpat183]

Tell us how they do it in Houston Pat. ... Oh, never mind, I just looked it up.

Houston grappling with decade of deficit spending - Houston Chronicle

How do you keep from bumping your head on the ceiling of your glass house when you are up on that high horse?

I thank the liberal local government.

Harris county, despite being in Texas, is very democratic(which is why we moved into Montgomery county, specifically, The Woodlands). They've spent their way into this mess over the last few years.

Same with Austin Texas. Local liberal government = broke city.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

I was pointing out that you can throw your rep on the line all you want...still doesn't mean that you're going to be anymore accurate than the next guy in the industry who also has a lot vested in his predictions.

It's entirely partisian. We believe who predicts our guy to win.

Except Silver has done a decade's worth of work that should make everyone believe his predictions. He's got an amazing system set up.

 

[Irish Houstonian]

In a way, arguing over pollsters is like arguing with OU fans who'll win the game -- we'll find out shortly enough, so not a whole lot of point in arguing about it.

But "bias" in terms of keeping-your-job cuts both ways: he works for the NYT. And he works from election to election, every 4 years. And he knows who his boss is.

So if he really wants to earn his living, he should look down the hall and copy Paul Krugman, who we all know puts partisanship way, way above credibility.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Next time someone asks me why I'm anti union...


SEASIDE HEIGHTS, New Jersey - Crews from Huntsville Utilities and Decatur Utilities are among many that made their way to the hurricane-ravaged East Coast only to be turned away in New Jersey, according to a WAFF 48 News report.

Derrick Moore, one of the Decatur workers, told the North Alabama station they were told by crews in New Jersey that since they are not union employees, they are not allowed to work.

Moore told the station they're frustrated being told "thanks, but no thanks."

New Jersey's loss is New York's gain. According to the report, the Huntsville crew is instead headed to Long Island to assist.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Except Silver has done a decade's worth of work that should make everyone believe his predictions. He's got an amazing system set up.

So does Buffett, but Bershire doesn't beat the S&P 500 every year. Just sayin.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

I'm sure Romney hated meatloaf until last week. He's a Filet Mignon and caviar kinda guy.

Your hatred for conservatives' wealth is laughable. Given the way you talk, only conservatives have money and all liberals are just blue collar, working class people. Such a joke.

Where do you think nancy pelosi dines? how many houses does she have? what is her net worth? how about harry reid? get off media matters and msnbc and get a little perspective.

socialism: making everyone equally poor and miserable since 1917

 

[Irish Houstonian]

Tell us how they do it in Houston Pat. ... Oh, never mind, I just looked it up.

Houston grappling with decade of deficit spending - Houston Chronicle

How do you keep from bumping your head on the ceiling of your glass house when you are up on that high horse?

Houston gov't is actually pretty liberal. Currently the Mayor is a Democrat, and the first lesbian mayor of a major city.

One of our representatives is also that gem of a Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee. You may remember her from such films as

"9/11 -- that was a Bush Cover-Up!"
"The Space Program is Racist"
"The Mars Rover is going to run over the flag Neil Armstrong planted!"

And

"Hurricanes are racist because they all have Anglo names!"

 

[GoIrish41]

Where do you think nancy pelosi dines? how many houses does she have? what is her net worth? how about harry reid? get off media matters and msnbc and get a little perspective.

Not sure, but If I wanted to know I'm sure they released their tax returns when they ran for office and I could find the information. Not so much with Romney.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

In a way, arguing over pollsters is like arguing with OU fans who'll win the game -- we'll find out shortly enough, so not a whole lot of point in arguing about it.

But "bias" in terms of keeping-your-job cuts both ways: he works for the NYT. And he works from election to election, every 4 years. And he knows who his boss is.

So if he really wants to earn his living, he should look down the hall and copy Paul Krugman, who we all know puts partisanship way, way above credibility.

Errant Gingrich Email: 'Obama Is Going to Win' - Yahoo! News

 

[IrishinSyria]

In a way, arguing over pollsters is like arguing with OU fans who'll win the game -- we'll find out shortly enough, so not a whole lot of point in arguing about it.

But "bias" in terms of keeping-your-job cuts both ways: he works for the NYT. And he works from election to election, every 4 years. And he knows who his boss is.

So if he really wants to earn his living, he should look down the hall and copy Paul Krugman, who we all know puts partisanship way, way above credibility.

Reality has a well known liberal bias. Much like Silver, Krugman has a long record of being right and using a ton of research to back his methodology. Most recently, the IMF just published a study on austerity in Europe that basically said what Krugman's been saying for his whole career: austerity in the face of a fiscal crisis amplified the underlying problem. Oops.

But hey, I admire conservatives for sticking with their gut feelings. Stanground.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

So does Buffett, but Bershire doesn't beat the S&P 500 every year. Just sayin.

The stock market and investments are considerably more volatile and prone to change than elections where there can be less speculation and more based on polls and facts. It's more like baseball, Silver's other expertise.

 

[GoIrish41]

Errant Gingrich Email: 'Obama Is Going to Win' - Yahoo! News

this is funny.

 

[Irish Houstonian]

Not sure, but If I wanted to know I'm sure they released their tax returns when they ran for office and I could find the information. Not so much with Romney.

No, Reid's never released his tax returns.

 

[PraetorianND]

So after the election I think we should all continue to argue politics because the Irish are rolling. Don't change ANYTHING.

 

[Irish Houstonian]

Reality has a well known liberal bias. ...the IMF just published a study on austerity in Europe that basically said what Krugman's been saying for his whole career: austerity in the face of a fiscal crisis amplified the underlying problem...

I don't think "bias" means what you think it means.

And every economist "has been saying that their whole career", at least post-Keynes. Everyone knows that cutting spending in a crisis makes that crisis worse at that moment. That Keynesianism 101. The problem is that spending doesn't spur real growth (Solyndra, anyone?), but rather consumption, stunts investment, productivity, and hurts us in the long-run. (That's why Keynes famously remarked "well, in the long run we are all dead"). Not to mention the fact that sometimes you have to cut spending, because excessive borrowing is what created the crisis in the first place (Greece, anyone?). You can't borrow your way out of a liquidity trap, and hope one day another internet bubble will bring you a huge surplus to pay off trillions in debt (just ask Japan).

If Krugman's taking credit for that idea he's more of a crack-pot than I thought.

 

[irishpat183]

In a way, arguing over pollsters is like arguing with OU fans who'll win the game -- we'll find out shortly enough, so not a whole lot of point in arguing about it.

But "bias" in terms of keeping-your-job cuts both ways: he works for the NYT. And he works from election to election, every 4 years. And he knows who his boss is.

So if he really wants to earn his living, he should look down the hall and copy Paul Krugman, who we all know puts partisanship way, way above credibility.

Paul "We need another Bubble" Krugman....and they gave him a nobel prize....Sheesh

 

[irishpat183]

Reality has a well known liberal bias. Much like Silver, Krugman has a long record of being right and using a ton of research to back his methodology. Most recently, the IMF just published a study on austerity in Europe that basically said what Krugman's been saying for his whole career: austerity in the face of a fiscal crisis amplified the underlying problem. Oops.

But hey, I admire conservatives for sticking with their gut feelings. Stanground.

Dear lord.....


How'd he do on that housing bubble???

The guy is a mad man that thinks throwing money on a fire will put it out. If, ladies and gents, we just spend more.....it will work.

 

[Rhode Irish]

But the people really aren't "making money"...not with those tax rates and COI.

"The cost of living in New York, NY is 113.6% higher than in Houston, TX . Therefore, you would have to earn a salary of $213,589 to maintain your current standard of living. "

At 100k, you'd have to make OVER DOUBLE to live in NY. You're not really "making money" up there. It's just ridiculously expensive to live there, so they have to pay like that giving you the false sense of "making money".

And don't get me started on the taxes......

I don't think you're math skills are working properly at the moment, but putting that aside I don't think you can argue that a great deal of the country's wealth is generated in New York City. And if you are going to argue that then you either don't know what you're talking about or you're just saying anything to continue the debate.

 

[irishpat183]

Not sure, but If I wanted to know I'm sure they released their tax returns when they ran for office and I could find the information. Not so much with Romney.

Yet you probably had no qualms about our president refusing to provide proof that he was a natural citizen of this country?

Talk about a guy with a shady past.....


Besides, like Obama with the BC, Romney did eventually release them....

Guess what? He's rich. Like all politicans. Including the ones that tell you that they "identify with middle America"....The biggest hoax in the liberal mind is that their politcians are "for the people"...LOL. Sure they are.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Not sure, but If I wanted to know I'm sure they released their tax returns when they ran for office and I could find the information. Not so much with Romney.

You're an idiot. Romney released his, paid everything he was supposed to pay. Done deal. Still awaiting dirty Harry...

Again original poster, back to my original point: do you only despise conservatives' money or do you have that same hatred for wealthy liberals too? Just a question...

 

[irishpat183]

I don't think you're math skills are working properly at the moment, but putting that aside I don't think you can argue that a great deal of the country's wealth is generated in New York City. And if you are going to argue that then you either don't know what you're talking about or you're just saying anything to continue the debate.

Hey, quit spinning the argument. You said that NY makes more money. I said that is inflated because of Taxes and COI. You have to take that into consideration.

And like CA, a lot of the wealthy are moving outta there. Pretty soon, if they keep penalizing success, there won't be any wealth left.