ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

[BobbyMac]

Two weeks ago I started keeping track of teams that held a possible advantage over ND, teams that could finish with 1 loss or less and win a championship. There were 38 teams then. Two weeks later after Cal's loss, there are just 17. Everything below is based on the Irish winning out of course.

Week 9:

Below is the:

Team............Losses......Opponent......Need..........Outcome

AAC

Houston..........(0)..........@ UCF...........W.............W 59-10
Memphis.........(0)..........@ Tulsa.........W.............W 66-42

The Irish will benefit if the AAC is thought of as the Power 6. The Irish will have wins over Temple and Navy. Memphis has a signature win over Ole Miss which means something. The Irish would be best served if Navy beats Houston and Memphis and plays Temple in the AAC championship. So Houston and Memphis need to beat everyone but Navy.

ACC

Clemson.........(0)..........@ Miami........W..............W 58-0
FSU...............(0)..........@ GT.............L................L 22-16 ..... Must win ACC Championship
UNC...............(1).......... UVa..............L................W 26-13
Duke..............(1)..........@ VT.............L................W 45-43 OT

Here's the big question. Do you think Clemson's side can fall apart and then lose to Pitt in the playoffs or is it better to ride in on Clemson's coattails as the no worse than #3 team in the country? The loss to Clemson considering it was early, close, on the road and conditions might be the best loss in college football at the end of the year.


B1G

tOSU..........(0)...........@ Rutgers.........L...........W 49-7
MSU...........(0)...........IU....................L............W 52-26
Iowa..........(0)............BYE

Yes, I want everyone to lose 2 but that isn't going to happen.


Big 12

Baylor.........(0)...........ISU..................L.............W 45-27
TCU............(0)..........BYE
OSU............(0)..........KU....................L.............W 58-10

Oklahoma with 1 loss is not on the list because the Irish own a tiebreaker with them because of Texas. This makes OU ND's best friend. If OU runs the table and wins the BIG 12, ND goes in before them for sure. Beyond that right now, I have a bad feeling that a 11-1 Baylor slots above ND if just so they don't miss the dance 2 years in a row..


PAC-12

Utah...........(0)..........@ SC...........L..............L 42-24
Cal.............(2)..........@ UCLA........L .............Lost 40-24......Eliminated.

So when SC beats Utah. The Irish control the PAC-12 with their win as long as Utah doesn't beat Stanford in the championship game worse than ND beat them... probably.


SEC

Florida..........(1)..........BYE..........
LSU..............(0)..........WKU..........L..............W 48-20
Bama............(1).........Tenn..........L..............W 19-14
A&M.............(1).........Ole Miss.....L...............L 23-3 ...... A&M Eliminated

Hope everybody loses 2 by the end of the championship game. Ole Miss is your friend here. There loss to Memphis screwed them but they can still win it all and there would be no soup for the SEC.


Opponents Week 8 schedule:

Texas vs K State......W 23-9
UVa @ UNC.............L 26-13
GT vs. FSU...............W 22-16
UMass vs. Toledo.....L 51-35
Clemson @ Miami....W 58-0
Navy vs. Tulane.......W 31-14
SC vs. Utah..............W 42-24
Temple @ ECU.........W 24-14
Pitt @ Cuse..............W 23-0
WF vs. NCSt.............L 35-17
BC @ Ville................L 17-14
Stanford @ UW.........W 31-14



So at this time there is a lot of teams that need to lose. But hope for:

- Stanford vs. SC in the PAC 12 championship game

- Temple and Navy in the AAC championship game

- Oklahoma winning the Big 12

- 2 loss teams all around in the B1G

- Ole Miss wins out and is SEC champs

- and the committee doesn't have an NIU flashback and put an undefeated Toledo above ND.



.

 

[GATTACA!]

11-1 ND gets in over any 12-0 AAC team.

 

[BobbyMac]

11-1 ND gets in over any 12-0 AAC team.

I think I agree. I'd just prefer Navy beat both Memphis and Houston and play Temple in the AAC championship. It would really suck if ND beats Temple by 17 and then Memphis beats both Navy and Temple twice by 21+. A lot of people will listen to that team's argument especially if Ole Miss finishes at the top of the SEC West. I'm not saying it will happen, just accounting for all the arguments that could come up.

 

[NDRock]

I think I agree. I'd just prefer Navy beat both Memphis and Houston and play Temple in the AAC championship. It would really suck if ND beats Temple by 17 and then Memphis beats both Navy and Temple twice by 21+. A lot of people will listen to that team's argument especially if Ole Miss finishes at the top of the SEC West. I'm not saying it will happen, just accounting for all the arguments that could come up.

I think ND is going to have to 11-1 and look impressive doing it. We've got to blow some of these teams out, starting with Temple. If not the Committee will use it against us.

 

[alohagoirish]

Ohio state loses to Michigan---

TCU loses to Baylor etc

Utah losses likely a couple

SEC could self immolate but likely one team will survive

Pac 12 is also a mess

Clemson could sit at #1 with victory over FSU and losses distributed among the other top teams.

If Clemson sits at #1 we would be the first choice of one loss teams



Clemson/Alabama/ ND with room for either an MSU or a TCU but not both

Until it becomes a mathematical certainty that we will not have 2 loss teams winning either the SEC/BIG10/Big 12/Pac10---we have lots of scenarios.....

Clemson at 12-0
OSU at 12-0
TCU at 12-0
Alabama at 11-1


In that scenario we wouldn't even be #5 but more like #7 on the list

Odds are not great but there are lots of favorable possibilities still , if we go 11-1

 

[stlnd01]

I think we need to root for Clemson to run the table. Worst-case scenario for us is 12-0 FSU and 11-1 Clemson. Would help if Pitt goes 10-2 and wins their division.
Also that USC-Utah game on Saturday is huge for us. Hate to say it but Fight the Fuck On.
Otherwise, the Big 12 will get one team in but not two. Same for the Big Ten, though I think we beat any one-loss team there if we've a win over Pac-12 champ Stanford and a close loss to ACC champ Clemson. Hard to see the SEC getting shut out, but the only teams left there that beat us out with one loss are probably Bama and LSU. So root for widespread carnage.
We'll need a few breaks - mostly in our opponents winning a lot of games against other teams - but if we hold up our end we've certainly got a shot. Most important thing is to hold up our end.

 

[aubeirish]

The season is just starting. Heads will start rolling real soon. 11-1 and we are in.

 

[ickythump1225]

I feel like people always panic (not talking about the OP, just in general) thinking all of these 0 and 1 loss teams will stay that way but history shows that most of them will lose at least 1 more game. Remember ND was 7-1 last year and the wheels fell off. There's plenty of time for teams to lose. I feel pretty confident that 11-1 ND gets in.

 

[T Town Tommy]

I feel like people always panic (not talking about the OP, just in general) thinking all of these 0 and 1 loss teams will stay that way but history shows that most of them will lose at least 1 more game. Remember ND was 7-1 last year and the wheels fell off. There's plenty of time for teams to lose. I feel pretty confident that 11-1 ND gets in.

Agree. If the Irish win out they are in. The road to the playoff is pretty simple IMO.

edit: Not meaning the games are easy. Just the principle of winning out to ensure your spot.

 

[irishfan]

Agree. If the Irish win out they are in. The road to the playoff is pretty simple IMO.

edit: Not meaning the games are easy. Just the principle of winning out to ensure your spot.

I hope so.

I just don't think it's far-fetched to think the playoff could be: SEC Champ, B1G Champ, undefeated Big-12 champ, undefeated ACC Champ. With an 11-1 ND stuck at home.

The computers love us this year compared to past seasons which could be huge in the end though.

 

[T Town Tommy]

I hope so.

I just don't think it's far-fetched to think the playoff could be: SEC Champ, B1G Champ, undefeated Big-12 champ, undefeated ACC Champ.

Always possible. The ACC race is the one to watch IMO. Guess you will be a GA Tech fan tomorrow and .... dare I say... an FSU fan a little later on.

 

[BobbyMac]

I hope so.

I just don't think it's far-fetched to think the playoff could be: SEC Champ, B1G Champ, undefeated Big-12 champ, undefeated ACC Champ. With an 11-1 ND stuck at home.

Like you said, It's not far fetched. To say that the Irish are in if they go 11-1 is an opinion, not a fact. The Irish need help. I agree with most that year in and year out, help comes. That's what this thread is for... to cross off the 2 loss teams. Cross off the Oklahoma's that ND owns a clear tie breaker with.

Speaking of Oklahoma... Memphis is beating Tulsa on the road worse than OU beat Tulsa in Norman. Just sayin'

 

[irishfan]

Always possible. The ACC race is the one to watch IMO. Guess you will be a GA Tech fan tomorrow and .... dare I say... an FSU fan a little later on.

My only concern there is 11-1 going up against 11-1 Clemson for the #4 spot if it came down to it. I don't think I could put ND over Clemson there even if we have the more impressive schedule in the end. I think the Big-12 purging itself is really ND's best chance unless the B1G ends up with OSU/MSU/Michigan all finishing 7-1 in the conference and 1-1 against each other.

Every year though it seems like there will be a bunch of undefeated teams and it never happens so who knows. ND may be in comfortably at 11-1.

 

[GATTACA!]

My only concern there is 11-1 going up against 11-1 Clemson for the #4 spot if it came down to it. I don't think I could put ND over Clemson there even if we have the more impressive schedule in the end. I think the Big-12 purging itself is really ND's best chance unless the B1G ends up with OSU/MSU/Michigan all finishing 7-1 in the conference and 1-1 against each other.

Every year though it seems like there will be a bunch of undefeated teams and it never happens so who knows. ND may be in comfortably at 11-1.

Yeah basically this. ESPN ran a segment the other day showing the likelihood of some of the highly ranked teams finishing undefeated, it wasn't very high. I don't remember all of the specifics but none of the teams had a better than 25% chance of going undefeated according to FPI. Utah for example had only like 5% chance same with LSU i believe. I wish i would have written down the statistics.

In any case right now worrying about anyone other than us is pointless. If we win out history has shown that the rest will work itself out.

 

[irishfan]

Yeah basically this. ESPN ran a segment the other day showing the likelihood of some of the highly ranked teams finishing undefeated, it wasn't very high. I don't remember all of the specifics but none of the teams had a better than 25% chance of going undefeated according to FPI. Utah for example had only like 5% chance same with LSU i believe. I wish i would have written down the statistics.

In any case right now worrying about anyone other than us is pointless. If we win out history has shown that the rest will work itself out.

They probably used their FPI.

ESPN Football Power Index - 2015 - ESPN

 

[GATTACA!]

They probably used their FPI.

ESPN Football Power Index - 2015 - ESPN

Yepp I knew it was FPI I didn't know they published a win out statistic. Interesting according to them we have the 3rd highest chance of winning out in the top 20.

 

[philipm31]

I feel like people always panic (not talking about the OP, just in general) thinking all of these 0 and 1 loss teams will stay that way but history shows that most of them will lose at least 1 more game. Remember ND was 7-1 last year and the wheels fell off. There's plenty of time for teams to lose. I feel pretty confident that 11-1 ND gets in.

Agreed. But it would be nice to not be on the outside looking in this season just because we lose another winnable game. IOW, if we were undefeated, then we would be in the discussion, with few negatives for people to nitpick. Now we need a ton of scenarios to fall our way just to have a shot as a 1-loss team. Of course, if there are multiple 1-loss teams, then ND's loss needs to be "better" than the other teams.

All we had to do was perform basic addition and we are unbeaten, instead of losing to a paper tiger.

 

[wizards8507]

I think we need to root for Clemson to run the table. Worst-case scenario for us is 12-0 FSU and 11-1 Clemson. Would help if Pitt goes 10-2 and wins their division.
Also that USC-Utah game on Saturday is huge for us. Hate to say it but Fight the Fuck On.
Otherwise, the Big 12 will get one team in but not two. Same for the Big Ten, though I think we beat any one-loss team there if we've a win over Pac-12 champ Stanford and a close loss to ACC champ Clemson. Hard to see the SEC getting shut out, but the only teams left there that beat us out with one loss are probably Bama and LSU. So root for widespread carnage.
We'll need a few breaks - mostly in our opponents winning a lot of games against other teams - but if we hold up our end we've certainly got a shot. Most important thing is to hold up our end.

If Pitt wins the ACC championship (with a second loss to us), it won't matter what Clemson does. That'll eliminate the ACC from the conversation and the Pac 12 is taking care of itself. A two loss Pity ACC champion is best case, undefeated Clemson second best.

 

[wizards8507]

I hope so.

I just don't think it's far-fetched to think the playoff could be: SEC Champ, B1G Champ, undefeated Big-12 champ, undefeated ACC Champ. With an 11-1 ND stuck at home.

The computers love us this year compared to past seasons which could be huge in the end though.

Right, which is why we're Pitt fans before we're Clemson fans.

 

[IrishLax]

PAC12 really seems like it'll take care of itself if we beat Stanford, unless Utah keeps doing what they're doing.

I don't see any possible combination of results where ND can make it in over the B1G champ unless Iowa falls apart... in general very improbable. Same with SEC.

So we need to bump one of Big 12 or ACC. If the Big 12 has any one loss team they likely get in on pity votes alone. So really we need ACC chaos to get in. In retrospect, beating Clemson and then losing to USC would've been MUCH better for Notre Dame than the other way around. Oh well... this is the situation you put yourself in as an independent. If we were part of the ACC Coastal, we'd be looking at a shot to play our way in at 12-1 in the ACC championship game.

 

[wizards8507]

PAC12 really seems like it'll take care of itself if we beat Stanford, unless Utah keeps doing what they're doing.

I don't see any possible combination of results where ND can make it in over the B1G champ unless Iowa falls apart... in general very improbable. Same with SEC.

So we need to bump one of Big 12 or ACC. If the Big 12 has any one loss team they likely get in on pity votes alone. So really we need ACC chaos to get in. In retrospect, beating Clemson and then losing to USC would've been MUCH better for Notre Dame than the other way around. Oh well... this is the situation you put yourself in as an independent. If we were part of the ACC Coastal, we'd be looking at a shot to play our way in at 12-1 in the ACC championship game.

There's no way the Big 12 gets in ahead of ND with one loss. The first playoff rankings come out before any of the heavy hitters play each other and their nonconference schedules are a joke. If they lose before the first ranking, I think we start ahead of them. If they lose subsequent to the first ranking, I think we jump them. I don't see a pity vote playing into it whatsoever. Ohio State's playoff performance validated last year's decisions.

When we're talking equal records, strength of schedule will be our tiebreaker.

 

[IrishLax]

There's no way the Big 12 gets in ahead of ND with one loss. The first playoff rankings come out before any of the heavy hitters play each other and their nonconference schedules are a joke. If they lose before the first ranking, I think we start ahead of them. If they lose subsequent to the first ranking, I think we jump them. I don't see a pity vote playing into it whatsoever. Ohio State's playoff performance validated last year's decisions.

When we're talking equal records, strength of schedule will be our tiebreaker.

I guess I'm banking on the conspiracy theory that the Big 12 representatives on the committee won't let their conference get shut out in favor of ND, who has no reps on the committee, assuming both have the same record.

 

[NDgradstudent]

Herbie giving ND some love...general view that 11-1 ND will get in. Finebaum said the same the other day, too.

 

[irishfan]

Right, which is why we're Pitt fans before we're Clemson fans.

I mean if we're being realistic about things, I don't think there is a chance in hell that Pitt is close to Clemson/FSU and can actually win the ACC. Congrats to them for being 5-1 (and I certainly hope they keep winning), but they haven't exactly been playing that well. Beating VT by 4, Virginia by 7, and GT by 3 doesn't really make me think they have a chance going up against Clemson/FSU in the Conference Champ game.

I want nothing more than Pitt to win their next two games and be ranked ~20 by the committee when we play them, but I've watched bits and pieces of three of their games now and they don't exactly look like a great team. I think Clemson would smoke them on a neutral field if it came down to it.

 

[wizards8507]

I mean if we're being realistic about things, I don't think there is a chance in hell that Pitt is close to Clemson/FSU and can actually win the ACC. Congrats to them for being 5-1 (and I certainly hope they keep winning), but they haven't exactly been playing that well. Beating VT by 4, Virginia by 7, and GT by 3 doesn't really make me think they have a chance going up against Clemson/FSU in the Conference Champ game.

I want nothing more than Pitt to win their next two games and be ranked ~20 by the committee when we play them, but I've watched bits and pieces of three of their games now and they don't exactly look like a great team. I think Clemson would smoke them on a neutral field if it came down to it.

Does FSU look like a great team to you?

 

[irishfan]

Does FSU look like a great team to you?

Not at all. Neither does Clemson if I'm being honest. I just think both are a massive step up from Pitt.

 

[gkIrish]

I'm going to qualify this a bunch but I'm going on record that a one loss Oklahoma is going to the playoffs over us assuming:

1) Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma St. do not lose any games to teams outside of each other and
2) Pitt does not win the ACC and
3) Stanford does not win he Pac-12

I know that's a lot of qualifiers but in that scenario I think Oklahoma deserves to get in ahead of us easily. They would have 3 better wins than us IMO.

 

[wizards8507]

I'm going to qualify this a bunch but I'm going on record that a one loss Oklahoma is going to the playoffs over us assuming:

1) Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma St. do not lose any games to teams outside of each other and
2) Pitt does not win the ACC and
3) Stanford does not win he Pac-12

I know that's a lot of qualifiers but in that scenario I think Oklahoma deserves to get in ahead of us easily. They would have 3 better wins than us IMO.

How so? None of those teams play anyone besides each other.

 

[gkIrish]

How so? None of those teams play anyone besides each other.

Oklahoma would be Baylor's first loss. So that's a win @ the #2 (or maybe #1) team in the country at that time.

Then (assuming TCU beats Okie St.), Oklahoma would be TCU's first loss. So that's another win over a top 3-4 team.

Then they finish the season with a win @ a 1 or 2 loss Oklahoma St which will be as good of a win on paper as any of our wins

If things work out perfectly for Oklahoma they would beat a #1-2 Baylor, a #1-2 TCU and if Okie State beats Baylor, another top 12 win.

 

[wizards8507]

Oklahoma would be Baylor's first loss. So that's a win @ the #2 (or maybe #1) team in the country at that time.

Then (assuming TCU beats Okie St.), Oklahoma would be TCU's first loss. So that's another win over a top 3-4 team.

Then they finish the season with a win @ a 1 or 2 loss Oklahoma St which will be as good of a win on paper as any of our wins

If things work out perfectly for Oklahoma they would beat a #1-2 Baylor, a #1-2 TCU and if Okie State beats Baylor, another top 12 win.

This is the very thing everyone complains about the SEC doing. Beat up on shit competition all September and then claim "top ten" victories over inflated rivals once conference play begins. Big 12 teams beating each other isn't worth anything unless they also prove they can beat teams outside of the Big 12.