NCAA Playoff Committee Rankings 2014 (Unranked)

[ND NYC]

Todays rankings make me believe we can control our own destiny. SEC judgement day is coming, the SEC West and Big 12 teams are gonna knock each other out.

we cannot.
and before you ask...we just dont

 

[ickythump1225]

Todays rankings make me believe we can control our own destiny. SEC judgement day is coming, the SEC West and Big 12 teams are gonna knock each other out.

The only thing we can do is win out and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[irishtrain]

Alabama ahead of TCU is garbage. Bama has ONE win over ranked teams and TCU just beat that team this past weekend, making it their THIRD win over a ranked team. Give me a fucking break. No SEC bias? Fuck that.

"We felt like, at this point, Alabama is a better team."

Jeff Long comparing Alabama to TCU.

How fucking subjective is that?! Bama has played NO ONE to this point. They'll get their chance to prove themselves. But for them to come out and say that...holy shit.

Can you imagine any other entity that involves this much $$$$/prestige being settled in such a manner. I don't think the Irish will win against ASU but nevertheless these people running this deal are really laughable. Talk about made for TV rather than sport- now espn has former political commentators on board giving their reasons for picks 1-4. LOL as I type. Go to eight teams-if you don't make 1 of 8 then you should keep your mouth shut. Problem with 8 teams is the sec would enter 5/6 on reputation alone. My 2 takes on this is they want Notre Dame in a conference and they want 3 sec teams every year in the 4 team pool. I don't care how old and crotchety I sound this resembles a soap opera more than college football. Next thing is to have Finebaum/Cowherd/on the panel with Ozzie Osborn/Katie Perry.

 

[GoIrish41]

Not worried about asu jumping us since we play this week but how does a win over utah merit jumping five spots?

 

[gkIrish]

Not worried about asu jumping us since we play this week but how does a win over utah merit jumping five spots?

3 teams ahead of them lost and 2 others were meh while they beat a top 20 team.

 

[Circa]

Arizona State #9!!! YEEE HAW!!! Now, let's get this one fellas.

 

[Junkhead]

With only a 4 team playoff, it is still kind of a joke. Instead of the possibility of multiple undefeated teams at the end of the season, the real fight now is to get into the top 4, which is still driven by voting. You could argue that it will always be the case unless the playoff is much larger, but at this point I take it for what it is. We are 7-1 (should be 8-0). Nothing to do other than play the games and let the chips fall where they may, or something.

 

[Circa]

Not worried about asu jumping us since we play this week but how does a win over utah merit jumping five spots?

Odd? Yes, but this is a human mind that empirically will indeed control this delusion.

 

[IrishMoore1]

Even if we win out, a lot of things have to fall into place to make it into the top 4.

If Oregon beats Utah this weekend, they will win out considering the rest of the schedule - pretty much guaranteed make playoff

If Michigan State beats Ohio St., I don't see how we could jump them moving forward since they're already ahead of us and will have another "quality" win. Somehow that win over Nebraska puts them ahead currently.

TCU and Kansas St. play each other. So one of them will lose and fall down the ranking. BUT, the winner notches another quality win and stays ahead.

There's no way Alabama wins out, they're bound to lose 1 more game. I think the SEC teams will beat each other up, and at least 1 stays in the playoff. But I could see a situation where a 2 loss team might be considered before ND because how many wins they have over ranked SEC opponents.

So now we have 1-2 SEC teams, FSU, Oregon, Kansas St./TCU, Michigan St. all ahead of us. At least 3 of those teams need to get a second loss in order for us to make it in. And looking at the schedules, it's a goddam bakery fest after this weekend (except for the SEC). TCU could possible lose to West Virginia, but otherwise the schedules are super easy.

USC could be ranked by the time we come around, but I'm not putting my hopes on that. Situation looks quite dire. We really needed to go undefeated this year. Sucks balls a ref's stupid call could derail ND's playoff chances.

 

[philipm31]

The fact that we've only had one "true" road game and we lost it is really hurting us. If we can somehow jump on ASU early and throttle this team it would bode very well for us.

The Navy win can be argued as excusable or inexcusable. I have no idea which way the committee members will see it.

Inexcusable - Navy racked up yards and points. More than most other opponents they've faced thus far. It wasn't a true road game. ND had an opportunity to put a 4-4 team away and didn't.

Excusable - A win is a win. Their offense could only be stopped by themselves, Navy had no answers. Numerous injuries led to inexperienced players in critical positions on defense. Therefore, communication was an issue and Navy's triple option became too complex to properly defend. NDs offense was able to carry them to victory.

Either way we shouldn't be lower than 11 which keeps us in the hunt.

Just throttle ASU on the road and start making it easy for the committee.

In the hunt for what, exactly? #7?

 

[GATTACA!]

Even if we win out, a lot of things have to fall into place to make it into the top 4.

If Oregon beats Utah this weekend, they will win out considering the rest of the schedule - pretty much guaranteed make playoff

If Michigan State beats Ohio St., I don't see how we could jump them moving forward since they're already ahead of us and will have another "quality" win. Somehow that win over Nebraska puts them ahead currently.

TCU and Kansas St. play each other. So one of them will lose and fall down the ranking. BUT, the winner notches another quality win and stays ahead.

There's no way Alabama wins out, they're bound to lose 1 more game. I think the SEC teams will beat each other up, and at least 1 stays in the playoff. But I could see a situation where a 2 loss team might be considered before ND because how many wins they have over ranked SEC opponents.

So now we have 1-2 SEC teams, FSU, Oregon, Kansas St./TCU, Michigan St. all ahead of us. At least 3 of those teams need to get a second loss in order for us to make it in. And looking at the schedules, it's a goddam bakery fest after this weekend (except for the SEC). TCU could possible lose to West Virginia, but otherwise the schedules are super easy.

USC could be ranked by the time we come around, but I'm not putting my hopes on that. Situation looks quite dire. We really needed to go undefeated this year. Sucks balls a ref's stupid call could derail ND's playoff chances.

They already played this week and TCU pulled it out.

 

[philipm31]

Even if we win out, a lot of things have to fall into place to make it into the top 4.

If Oregon beats Utah this weekend, they will win out considering the rest of the schedule - pretty much guaranteed make playoff

If Michigan State beats Ohio St., I don't see how we could jump them moving forward since they're already ahead of us and will have another "quality" win. Somehow that win over Nebraska puts them ahead currently.

TCU and Kansas St. play each other. So one of them will lose and fall down the ranking. BUT, the winner notches another quality win and stays ahead.

There's no way Alabama wins out, they're bound to lose 1 more game. I think the SEC teams will beat each other up, and at least 1 stays in the playoff. But I could see a situation where a 2 loss team might be considered before ND because how many wins they have over ranked SEC opponents.

So now we have 1-2 SEC teams, FSU, Oregon, Kansas St./TCU, Michigan St. all ahead of us. At least 3 of those teams need to get a second loss in order for us to make it in. And looking at the schedules, it's a goddam bakery fest after this weekend (except for the SEC). TCU could possible lose to West Virginia, but otherwise the schedules are super easy.

USC could be ranked by the time we come around, but I'm not putting my hopes on that. Situation looks quite dire. We really needed to go undefeated this year. Sucks balls a ref's stupid call could derail ND's playoff chances.

TCU beat WVU already.

 

[IrishLax]

We win out, and we'll be no lower than #7 per MUST HAPPEN results.

Assume FSU wins ACC. In.

The odds of two 1-loss SEC are low. Possible, but low. So assume SEC champ but not a second team. Which would slot us up to 6.

Then there is the Big 12 clusterfuck and the joke of a conference that is the B1G and then there is the hyper-competitive PAC. You have to jump 2 of 3 to get in. I don't see how we leap frog any of those people without:
1) B1G champ being OSU with that ugly home loss to a terrible Virginia Tech plus a very bad SOS or a 2-loss MSU somehow backdooring their way in.
2) ASU running the table to win the PAC and being a 2-loss team we beat head-to-head.
3) The Big 12 champ having two losses which would basically require KSU to beat TCU and then lose to WVU and then beat Baylor... or Baylor lose to Oklahoma and then beat KSU... either way this all seems unlikely, but it's possible. If TCU beats KSU this week though I think they're a virtual lock which is pretty disappointing.

All of that hinges on us running the table, which is maybe a 10%-15% chance. So I don't know... we've probably got a 2%-5% chance of making the playoff right now.

 

[Wild Bill]

Even if we win out, a lot of things have to fall into place to make it into the top 4.

If Oregon beats Utah this weekend, they will win out considering the rest of the schedule - pretty much guaranteed make playoff

If Michigan State beats Ohio St., I don't see how we could jump them moving forward since they're already ahead of us and will have another "quality" win. Somehow that win over Nebraska puts them ahead currently.

TCU and Kansas St. play each other. So one of them will lose and fall down the ranking. BUT, the winner notches another quality win and stays ahead.

There's no way Alabama wins out, they're bound to lose 1 more game. I think the SEC teams will beat each other up, and at least 1 stays in the playoff. But I could see a situation where a 2 loss team might be considered before ND because how many wins they have over ranked SEC opponents.

So now we have 1-2 SEC teams, FSU, Oregon, Kansas St./TCU, Michigan St. all ahead of us. At least 3 of those teams need to get a second loss in order for us to make it in. And looking at the schedules, it's a goddam bakery fest after this weekend (except for the SEC). TCU could possible lose to West Virginia, but otherwise the schedules are super easy.

USC could be ranked by the time we come around, but I'm not putting my hopes on that. Situation looks quite dire. We really needed to go undefeated this year. Sucks balls a ref's stupid call could derail ND's playoff chances.

I don't think it's that far fetched. K State and OSU win this weekend and eliminate TCU and MSU. K State plays West Virginia and Baylor on the road to finish the year. They can easily drop one or both of those games. That would eliminate the big 10 and 12 and open up the fourth spot, even if Oregon wins out, for ND or a second SEC team.

FSU
SEC champ
Oregon
ND

rematch with FSU in the first round

 

[IrishinSyria]

I don't think it's that far fetched. K State and OSU win this weekend and eliminate TCU and MSU. K State plays West Virginia and Baylor on the road to finish the year. They can easily drop one or both of those games. That would eliminate the big 10 and 12 and open up the fourth spot, even if Oregon wins out, for ND or a second SEC team.

FSU
SEC champ
Oregon
ND

rematch with FSU in the first round

Yeah, but is Baylor really out if they win out with wins over (ranked) Oklahoma and K State? What if Alabama wins the SEC and hands Miss State its only loss along the way*? Or what if Auburn and Miss State both win out*? What if OSU beats Sparty and wins the Big ten? Are you sure they don't jump us with win #12 over a ranked Nebraska squad in the championship game?

The problem we're starting to see is that a lot of the big stumbling block games that are left for teams sitting in front of us could also be springboard games for teams behind us. If the only thing we had to worry about was the favorites winning out, I'd be pretty content right now. This is CFB, shit happens.

That being said, we have a springboard game too. If we beat ASU this weekend, I'm going to be the country's #1 Sun Devil fan for the rest of the season; we'll desperately need them to finish with 2 losses.


*To be clear, the answer to both of those hypos is 2 SEC teams in the playoffs.

 

[stlnd01]

Assuming we win out (big assumption), and barring big upsets of FSU or Oregon (who knows, it's college football), it seems like we're basically in the mix for the last spot with:

SEC #2 (Auburn/Bama winner?)
Big 12 winner (TCU/KSU winner?)
B1G winner (MSU/OSU)

I can see a more than 2-5% scenario in which we we prevail.
For one, our SOS will climb, for one. Beating ASU would give us a big-time win. Louisville could climb back into the top 25 by the time we play them. If USC keeps winning they could be Top 20. Would also sure help if ASU wins the Pac-12 South (and ideally the whole conference).
Would also help if we win these games in convincing fashion. I think our close wins vs. UNC and Navy have probably cost us at least one, maybe two or three spots in the rankings.
Then, two-loss teams in the SEC, OSU beating MSU, and chaos in the Big 12 all work to our advantage.
Point is, we've certainly still got a path to the playoff.

 

[stlnd01]

Yeah, but is Baylor really out if they win out with wins over (ranked) Oklahoma and K State? What if Alabama wins the SEC and hands Miss State its only loss along the way*? Or what if Auburn and Miss State both win out*? What if OSU beats Sparty and wins the Big ten? Are you sure they don't jump us with win #12 over a ranked Nebraska squad in the championship game?

The problem we're starting to see is that a lot of the big stumbling block games that are left for teams sitting in front of us could also be springboard games for teams behind us. If the only thing we had to worry about was the favorites winning out, I'd be pretty content right now. This is CFB, shit happens.

The stumbling block/springboard dynamic is a good point.
But does anyone actually, deep in their heart, really think Nebraska is any good? Or that Baylor is really one of the four best teams in the country?
If we win out, at this point, i'd be more worried about a two-loss Auburn or Bama staying ahead of us than being leapfrogged by any of the teams behind us.
But I also didn't expect Arizona State to jump us for beating Utah in overtime. So who knows. This is all new territory.

 

[irishfan]

Like others have pointed out, something shocking would have to happen for the Top 3 spots not to be FSU, SEC1, Oregon. That 4th spot looks like it would come down to ND, B1G champ, Big-12 champ, and SEC2.

Assuming that happens this is what we need to root for:

--TCU to lose to K-State. TCU is by far the biggest threat in the Big-12, they have three gimme games after KSU this week. K-State still has to go to WVU and Baylor. I think one of those is a loss. Baylor is far behind already, and their loss was a bad loss IMO. I also think the committee will make a point in punishing them for their OOC even if they go 11-1. Potential chaos of an 11-1 Baylor and 11-1 TCU could benefit as well. The committee couldn't justify putting TCU ahead of Baylor, and we'd have a good chance of being ahead of both due to this.

--Michigan State to lose. Or at least win ugly the rest of the year. I think we finish ahead of a 12-1 OSU or Nebraska. I still think we can jump MSU as well, but it will be close.

--We absolutely can't have more than one 1-loss SEC team.

--We really, really need ASU, Louisville, USC, and Stanford to finish the year strongly. These will be our top four wins on the season. ASU winning out and going 10-2 and winning the PAC-12 South would be absolutely huge. Louisville being 7-3 and ranked in the Top-25 for our game with them is a must. They play BC this week then have a bye. USC being 8-3 and ranked going into our game requires them beating Cal and UCLA. Stanford has a bye and then plays Utah, Cal, and UCLA. Them finishing 8-4 and in the Top-25 would be huge for us. We need these 4 teams to come to play to end the year.

I really think our playoff chances (assuming we go 11-1) really come down to this TCU-Kansas State game this weekend. I don't think there will be two SEC teams, and I don't think the B1G Champ makes it in over us.

 

[Irish Insanity]

It's possibly we go into the SEC championship game with a 1 loss and 2 loss SEC team. Anyone think a 2 loss SEC champ makes it in if the 2 loss team beats the 1 loss team for the championship. Or is there a chance we don't see an SEC team in the playoffs.

 

[rocket66]

NCAA Playoff Committee Rankings 2014 (ND #10)

NCAA Playoff Committee Rankings 2014 (ND #10)

If we go 11-1 and the only loss being to #1 and undefeated FSU, then we are in. At the end, the value of your loss is going to mean a lot and be just as important as your wins. Hell, we are already getting credit for our loss with the #10 rating.

We just need FSU to run the table and look good doing it.

 

[Irish#1]

We win out, and we'll be no lower than #7 per MUST HAPPEN results.

Assume FSU wins ACC. In.

The odds of two 1-loss SEC are low. Possible, but low. So assume SEC champ but not a second team. Which would slot us up to 6.

Then there is the Big 12 clusterfuck and the joke of a conference that is the B1G and then there is the hyper-competitive PAC. You have to jump 2 of 3 to get in. I don't see how we leap frog any of those people without:
1) B1G champ being OSU with that ugly home loss to a terrible Virginia Tech plus a very bad SOS or a 2-loss MSU somehow backdooring their way in.
2) ASU running the table to win the PAC and being a 2-loss team we beat head-to-head.
3) The Big 12 champ having two losses which would basically require KSU to beat TCU and then lose to WVU and then beat Baylor... or Baylor lose to Oklahoma and then beat KSU... either way this all seems unlikely, but it's possible. If TCU beats KSU this week though I think they're a virtual lock which is pretty disappointing.

All of that hinges on us running the table, which is maybe a 10%-15% chance. So I don't know... we've probably got a 2%-5% chance of making the playoff right now.

If we beat ASU this week, I think we run the table and make it very difficult for the committee to ignore us since a number of these teams in the SEC & Big 12 still have to play each other.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

TTT, you're completely missing my point. Remove the team names for a second. Ignore that there is a lot of football to play (as I am speaking solely on this week's rankings alone...they are supposed to be week-to-week, no?). What I'm saying is that the committee established their criteria for determining the rankings on a week-to-week basis. And so far, they have not held completely true to that criteria. Which is cause for concern because when it's time to make the final rankings, I don't have faith that they'll pick them objectively, based on the criteria they established in the first place.

Again, remove the names on the jersey:

Team-X is a one-loss team with victories over TWO ranked teams. Team-Y is a one-loss team with victories over ONE ranked team. Team-Y's one quality win also happens to be the same of Team-X. Team-Y had a bye the same week that Team-X beat yet another ranked team. If these rankings truly are week-to-week, then you cannot objectively look at both of these two teams and rank Team-Y higher than Team-X, can you? No, you cannot. But because Team-Y is Alabama, the committee voted "so close that they had to put in game film to compare and ultimately felt Alabama was a better team and would beat TCU on a neutral site."

That is absolute bullshit. And it's why I've lost my trust in the committee. Yes, the SEC schedule will help sort teams out, but again that's not my point. My point is that the committee is not looking at two teams and what they've accomplished. They're looking at two teams and ranking them based on a subjective eyeball test. That's wrong. It goes against the criteria established and it goes against this entire committee format.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

It's easy to say "Calm down, there's a lot of games left. It'll sort itself out.." But will it? These teams are all going to beat up on each other. Unless 4 teams truly do rise to the top, then the committee could very well be in charge of picking from a bunch of one-loss or even two-loss teams to get into the final four, conference champions included. Do you trust they'll get it right?

The BCS pretty much always got the top 2 right. The top 10 could be interchangeable, but it really didn't matter based on conference bowl tie-ins, etc. Now it does matter, because it's not just two teams getting in. It's 4. And when was the last time four and only four teams deserved a shot? I don't think it's going to be as clear cut as some may think.

 

[GoldenDomer]

Thanks for proving my point. That's a biased comment about a team you THINK is better than another. But at this point in the season, TCU is more accomplished and the rankings don't back that up. It's bullshit and causes me to have little faith in them getting the Four right in the end of they're already playing favorites. Bama most certainly has a chance to prove they belong. But at the moment? No.

So you know which teams are better!? How do you know Miss St. is better than Navy? They haven't played. You don't know what teams are better until they play each other, so you have to go off the eye test, and Alabama has looked flat out awesome the last couple weeks. Their only mutual opponent is WVU, who an Alabama team not clicking on all cylinders beat by 10, and TCU beat by 1. I have a lot of trouble believing Alabama wouldn't beat TCU by at least 10 at this point.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

So you know which teams are better!? How do you know Miss St. is better than Navy? They haven't played. You don't know what teams are better until they play each other, so you have to go off the eye test, and Alabama has looked flat out awesome the last couple weeks. Their only mutual opponent is WVU, who an Alabama team not clicking on all cylinders beat by 10, and TCU beat by 1. I have a lot of trouble believing Alabama wouldn't beat TCU by at least 10 at this point.

That's not what I'm saying.

We keep hearing people talk about "quality wins" and more often than not, that "quality win" means a ranked opponent. TCU has beaten two to Alabama's one.

Sagarin ranks Bama's SOS a lot higher, so maybe that evens things out a bit. But I still don't think it's right to have the committee look at film and predict who will beat who. It's completely subjective. Analysts do that every week and almost never get them right. That's why we play the game.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

For the record, I'm not saying TCU would beat Bama. Nor am I saying the opposite. I am, however, saying that on a week-to-week basis, the committee needs to be more objective and quit being so wishy-washy.

This team is ahead of that team because they have more quality wins. Margin of defeat doesn't matter, nor does margin of victory....

What about TCU/Bama?...

Well, we just feel Bama is better...

C'mon maaaan. Let the chips fall as they may, but don't set this up based on a subjective eyeball test. If they came out and said, "Look, Bama is 7-1 with a much tougher schedule to date..." I'd say, you know what. Fine. But they didn't say that. And that's my issue.

 

[autry_denson]

probably been said a million times already but it just hit me how huge a win would be this weekend at AZ State. If ND wins then they are somewhere between #5 and #8 depending on how teams ahead of them do in some tough games.

Win out from that position and they are in really good shape for the playoff.

 

[Guest]

For the record, I'm not saying TCU would beat Bama. Nor am I saying the opposite. I am, however, saying that on a week-to-week basis, the committee needs to be more objective and quit being so wishy-washy.

This team is ahead of that team because they have more quality wins. Margin of defeat doesn't matter, nor does margin of victory....

What about TCU/Bama?...

Well, we just feel Bama is better...

C'mon maaaan. Let the chips fall as they may, but don't set this up based on a subjective eyeball test. If they came out and said, "Look, Bama is 7-1 with a much tougher schedule to date..." I'd say, you know what. Fine. But they didn't say that. And that's my issue.

You have a point and this is the problem with humans deciding things in a committee. There is no conspiracy theory, it is just human bias always affects opinions. This year it is Alabama (by your analysis) and next year it may be somebody else. It could help ND in a given year, or hurt ND. I am not one to believe that 'it all evens out in the end'. I would rather have a more expansive playoff and have them settle it on the field to remove all doubt.

 

[Woneone]

It's possibly we go into the SEC championship game with a 1 loss and 2 loss SEC team. Anyone think a 2 loss SEC champ makes it in if the 2 loss team beats the 1 loss team for the championship. Or is there a chance we don't see an SEC team in the playoffs.

If there was one scenario that I hope, HOPE, plays out is somehow, someway Missouri wins out and wins the SEC championship.

That would be full-on entertainment at it's finest.

 

[koonja]

We should all be Georgia fans for the rest of the year. They have a chance with Gurley coming back to ruin some partys.