Is Home-Field Advantage a Myth?

[Domina Nostra]

Thought this was an interesting read going into Texas...

College football's greatest myth - College football's greatest myth: The home-field advantage - sports - The Big Stories - Longreads by the Omaha World-Herald

 

[IrishLax]

I only got about halfway through. I don't think he's looking at it correctly. Home field advantage cannot be measured by absolutes (i.e. wins and losses)... it's measured by performance relative to a norm.

There is a ton of research that concludes that home field advantage in college football is worth somewhere around 3.5 points over the "expected" neutral field outcome.

 

[DONTH8]

Lax took the words out of my mouth.

Also I can't help but think about schools like Stanford that will let their grass grow making it more difficult for a team like notre dame to operate

 

[ACamp1900]

Also I can't help but think about schools like Stanford that will let their grass grow making it more difficult for a team like notre dame to operate

 

[NorthDakota]

Lax took the words out of my mouth.

Also I can't help but think about schools like Stanford that will let their grass grow making it more difficult for a team like notre dame to operate

I'm pretty sure that has no legitimate impact on the game of football

 

[wizards8507]

There is a ton of research that concludes that home field advantage in college football is worth somewhere around 3.5 points over the "expected" neutral field outcome.

Is that actual research? I always thought the 3 point number was how people tend to value home field when they're betting. As we know, public perception in gambling doesn't always match statistical reality.

 

[connor_in]

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[IrishinSyria]

Is that actual research? I always thought the 3 point number was how people tend to value home field when they're betting. As we know, public perception in gambling doesn't always match statistical reality.

Gamblers don't pull numbers out of their ass, they're the ones with the incentive to figure it out.

Best study I've seen shows that there is such a thing, it varies across sports, and the biggest factor explaining the variance is referee discretion/power, suggesting that refs are subconsciously influenced by the crowd.

Home field advantage: The facts and the fiction | Chicago Booth Review

 

[IrishinSyria]

Numbers are disguised a little bit more in CFB because of small sample and the major teams' advantages in scheduling, but it would be shocking if an advantage that was real and documented in literally every other sport didn't also exist in CFB.

Also, like lax said, it's possible to figure out performance vs an expected outcome.

e. this is a really interesting point from OP though:

4. Officiating is more balanced

Big Ten data, which only goes back to 2009, doesn't reveal a notable change in flag distribution between home and road teams, but maybe it's more complicated than penalty counts.
Power Five officials, under more scrutiny than ever, are raising their standards and collaborating more. And perhaps the ability to review controversial calls has diminished the "homer" factor. Officials never intended to make mistakes, but it's human nature to let a home crowd influence a whistle or two.
Starting in 2004, calls were subject to replay. Do road teams benefit more than home teams from technology?
"Typically, a home team might get a 50-50 call 60 percent of the time," said Preston Johnson, the Vegas handicapper, "but when you get to review, it's back to a 50-50 call."

 

[edgesofsanity]

I'm pretty sure that has no legitimate impact on the game of football

Disagrees:

 

[IrishLax]

Here's a summary of a study from a few years back. They concluded it was worth closer to 3.8 points.

College Football Homefield Advantage Analysis @ PredictionMachine.com

Look where Notre Dame ranked back then LOL... like Syria said, a big part could be that we bring in "visiting" refs from the opponent's conference on most occasions.

 

[Domina Nostra]

But I think his point is that the advantage is closing, or at least has recently, not that it never existed.

I chose to believe its true until the Texas game is over.

 

[IrishLax]

But I think his point is that the advantage is closing, or at least has recently, not that it never existed.

I chose to believe its true until the Texas game is over.

I'm just not sure if he's evaluating it correctly. He's looking at win-loss record... you can't judge how much it helps/doesn't help by something simple and binary like that. Like it views a 28 point underdog losing by 3 at home the same as that team losing by 50. It'd be much more valuable to say "home field advantage was worth on average 3.8 points over the past decade... this past year, it was only worth 2."

Saying "home teams win less" doesn't account for a myriad of other variables.

 

[Domina Nostra]

I'm just not sure if he's evaluating it correctly. He's looking at win-loss record... you can't judge how much it helps/doesn't help by something simple and binary like that. Like it views a 28 point underdog losing by 3 at home the same as that team losing by 50. It'd be much more valuable to say "home field advantage was worth on average 3.8 points over the past decade... this past year, it was only worth 2."

Saying "home teams win less" doesn't account for a myriad of other variables.

While your logic seems impeccable, I'm just going to ignore it and believe that Texas has no home field advantage. I'll reconsider on Monday.

 

[IrishLax]

While your logic seems impeccable, I'm just going to ignore it and believe that Texas has no home field advantage. I'll reconsider on Monday.

LOL supporting your assertion...

College Football Home Feld Advantage 2015 Rankings @ PredictionMachine.com

Texas has shown recently that they do not up tick playing at home versus on the road. They effectively have no home field "advantage"...