FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | FEI COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS 2008
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.
Game Efficiency (GE) is the composite possession-by-possession efficiency of a team over the course of a game, a measurement of the success of its offensive, defensive, and special teams units’ essential goals: to maximize the team’s own scoring opportunities and to minimize those of its opponent. FEI ratings take the season-long GE data and adjust for opponent, placing special emphasis on quality performance against good teams, win or lose.
OFEI: Offensive FEI, the opponent-adjusted efficiency of the given team's offense.
DFEI: Defensive FEI, the opponent-adjusted efficiency of the given team's defense.
STE: Special Teams Efficiency, the scoring value earned by field goal, punt and kickoff units measured in points per average game.
FPA: Field Position Advantage, the share of the value of total starting field position earned by each team against its opponents.
Overall Efficiency by Year
2007 - Overall FEI Rank - 74 (SOS = 38)
OFEI = 109
DFEI = 45
STE = 109
FPA = 87
2008 - Overall FEI Rank - 50 (SOS = 18)
OFEI = 67
DFEI = 31
STE = 49
FPA = 29
2009 - Overall FEI Rank - 31 (SOS Rank = 56)
OFEI = 3
DFEI = 68
STE = 69
FPA = 84
I can't find anything for FEI prior to 2007. But for Weis at Notre Dame, his teams were woefully inefficient in all aspects of the game (excluding 2009 Clausen, Tate, Floyd and Rudolph who still finished 6-6). These numbers also indicate to me that the teams were wildly inconsistent over the course of each season. As far as Kansas goes in 2012, they had a brutal schedule, poor offense and defense, nearly dead last in special teams and horrible field position. These are likely to improve some but I expect the same inconsistency from CW at Kansas.
Lets contrast that with Kelly:
2010 - Overall FEI Rank - 23 (SOS Rank = 40)
OFEI = 36
DFEI = 27
STE = 12
FPA = 57
2011 - Overall FEI Rank - 15 (SOS Rank = 27)
OFEI = 26
DFEI = 18
STE = 53
FPA = 64
2012 - Overall FEI Rank - 10 (SOS Rank = 10)
OFEI = 12
DFEI = 16
STE = 90
FPA = 84
You can clearly see as the SOS became tougher, ND increased its overall efficiency Offensively and Defensively while overcoming dips in special teams and field position. There is a consistent increase with Off. and Def. and as most people clearly understand our special teams are just not special. So our 2012 team finished undefeated with the toughest SOS in six years and was extremely efficient on both sides of the ball. I attribute that to Kelly's system.
