Foreign Policy

[Legacy]

Good ones.

"You're not anti-Semitic are you?"
"I'll take the two Muslim congresswomen and you can take out Nancy."
"I never had dance lessons."
"Protect this House."

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Incredible thread about how a medieval chivalric order ended up as one of the most powerful airforces in Europe during WW2:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sod Pepsi's navy.<br><br>Let's talk about the point after WW2 where the Knights Hospitaller, of medieval crusading fame, 'accidentally' became a major European air power. <br><br>I shitteth ye not. &#55357;&#57065;️&#55357;&#57065;️</p>— John Bull (@garius) <a href="https://twitter.com/garius/status/1151832864494903296?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 18, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Legacy]

The whole political outcry over a few tankers getting mined above the waterline and never sinking because they are double - lined seems to be the usual stirring up the public in preparation for another expensive engagement.

The Iran-Iraq War saw an estimated 546 commercial vessels damaged and 430 civilian sailors killed. The price of oil spiked in 1980, then came down and by 1986 dropped to below $40 barrel, but that was due to OPEC and America's dependence. Now that may mean a temporary spike in gas prices at best.

Was the Iranian drone we may have destroyed in international waters? Maybe. They had destroyed one of ours, supposedly in their air space. Not too difficult to do in broad daylight. We can jam the signals to their drones. Nothing to go to war about.

We were in the Strait of then But is many Americans do not recall this one, Iranians do:
Iran Air Flight 655

Iran Air Flight 655 was a scheduled passenger flight from Tehran to Dubai via Bandar Abbas, that was shot down on 3 July 1988 by an SM-2MR surface-to-air missile fired from USS Vincennes, a guided missile cruiser of the United States Navy. The aircraft, an Airbus A300, was destroyed and all 290 people on board, including 66 children, were killed.

In 1996, the governments of the United States and Iran reached a settlement at the International Court of Justice which included the statement "...the United States recognized the aerial incident of 3 July 1988 as a terrible human tragedy and expressed deep regret over the loss of lives caused by the incident..."[13] As part of the settlement, even though the U.S. government did not admit legal liability or formally apologize to Iran, it still agreed to pay US$61.8 million on an ex gratia basis, amounting to $213,103.45 per passenger, in compensation to the families of the Iranian victims.[14]

The shootdown is the deadliest aviation disaster involving an Airbus A300,[15] as well as the deadliest to occur in Iran.[16]

 

[Irish YJ]

The whole political outcry over a few tankers getting mined above the waterline and never sinking because they are double - lined seems to be the usual stirring up the public in preparation for another expensive engagement.

The Iran-Iraq War saw an estimated 546 commercial vessels damaged and 430 civilian sailors killed. The price of oil spiked in 1980, then came down and by 1986 dropped to below $40 barrel, but that was due to OPEC and America's dependence. Now that may mean a temporary spike in gas prices at best.

Was the Iranian drone we may have destroyed in international waters? Maybe. They had destroyed one of ours, supposedly in their air space. Not too difficult to do in broad daylight. We can jam the signals to their drones. Nothing to go to war about.

We were in the Strait of then But is many Americans do not recall this one, Iranians do:
Iran Air Flight 655

I sure don't want war with Iran, but your minimization of mining international waters, shooting down our drone in international space, and masked hijackers taking two tankers, is pretty telling.........

Sounds like you're casting doubt that our drone was in international airspace, as well casting doubt on placement of the Iranian drone... Hell, they deny that we even shot down one of their drones, yet you want to cast down on where it was even though there's no claim by them that it was in Iranian airspace.

everyone lies except dems and Iran?

 

[Legacy]

I sure don't want war with Iran, but your minimization of mining international waters, shooting down our drone in international space, and masked hijackers taking two tankers, is pretty telling.........

Sounds like you're casting doubt that our drone was in international airspace, as well casting doubt on placement of the Iranian drone... Hell, they deny that we even shot down one of their drones, yet you want to cast down on where it was even though there's no claim by them that it was in Iranian airspace.

everyone lies except dems and Iran?

Not really. A cautionary tale. Perspective. 546 vessels damaged in the Iran-Iraq War where Iran considered Iraq a puppet of the Great Satan. Iran lost a million and would have carried the war on, Iraq a half million in that war. Mistaking a commercial airline, an Airbus, for a F-14 which was probably in Iranian airspace.

Iran tanker seizure: Radio exchanges reveal Iran-UK confrontation (BBC)

The British tanker is owned by a Swedish company with a crew of Indian, Russian, Latvian and Filipino. A previous ship that was seized and taken to Iran the crew of Russian and Filipino was released after two days and flown to Oman. This would be a morass. I would want the Admin to share all the intelligence and reasoning with Congress before any strikes or major action, but who thinks they will? You don't think that only Reps speak the truth?

 

[Irish YJ]

Not really. A cautionary tale. Perspective. 546 vessels damaged in the Iran-Iraq War where Iran considered Iraq a puppet of the Great Satan. Iran lost a million and would have carried the war on, Iraq a half million in that war. Mistaking a commercial airline, an Airbus, for a F-14 which was probably in Iranian airspace.

Iran tanker seizure: Radio exchanges reveal Iran-UK confrontation (BBC)

The British tanker is owned by a Swedish company with a crew of Indian, Russian, Latvian and Filipino. A previous ship that was seized and taken to Iran the crew of Russian and Filipino was released after two days and flown to Oman. This would be a morass. I would want the Admin to share all the intelligence and reasoning with Congress before any strikes or major action, but who thinks they will? You don't think that only Reps speak the truth?

First, I think all politicians are liars, and I think all media these days is biased.

As far as the flight is concerned. Yes, big error. It was 30+ years ago..... totally different technology too. And even the ICAO said that the US tried multiple times contacting the plane on civ frequency. It was a very unfortunate situation, but don't paint it as relevant to today's shit. It's weak as hell.

Using the word morass make you feel smart? Anyway, on the seized ships, who cares who owned them, who was working them. What matters, and what mattered to Iran, is that they flew a British flag.

I certainly hope intel is shared, but there's not a lot hair splitting that needs to be evaluated right now. Iran is pushing limits, pure and simple. If you say different, you're narrative-blind.

 

[Irish#1]

The whole political outcry over a few tankers getting mined above the waterline and never sinking because they are double - lined seems to be the usual stirring up the public in preparation for another expensive engagement.

The Iran-Iraq War saw an estimated 546 commercial vessels damaged and 430 civilian sailors killed. The price of oil spiked in 1980, then came down and by 1986 dropped to below $40 barrel, but that was due to OPEC and America's dependence. Now that may mean a temporary spike in gas prices at best.

Was the Iranian drone we may have destroyed in international waters? Maybe. They had destroyed one of ours, supposedly in their air space. Not too difficult to do in broad daylight. We can jam the signals to their drones. Nothing to go to war about.

We were in the Strait of then But is many Americans do not recall this one, Iranians do:
Iran Air Flight 655

Honest question.............Do you really think Iran with its history and unstable leadership always tells the truth? Yes or no?

 

[Legacy]

Honest question.............Do you really think Iran with its history and unstable leadership always tells the truth? Yes or no?

No, I'd be reluctant to use that criteria for all countries. Do you think that Trump should use the military without consulting Congress? And only then in cases where U.S. troops are attacked?

 

[Irish YJ]

Exclusive: Britain wins early European support for Hormuz naval mission
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...upport-for-hormuz-naval-mission-idUSKCN1UI2C9

 

[PraetorianND]

Exclusive: Britain wins early European support for Hormuz naval mission
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...upport-for-hormuz-naval-mission-idUSKCN1UI2C9

And they just elected Boris. I guess they are tired of the status quo.

 

[Irish YJ]

And they just elected Boris. I guess they are tired of the status quo.

Europe is all over the place. I've got friends and/or fam in several Euro countries. It's as crazy, or crazier than the US. The next ten years there is going to be interesting. Interested to see how the UK peels off the EU. Also interested to see who the next country to exit is. Ultimately, I think the union is a good thing, I simply think they went too far in this version in some areas, and not far enough in others. The Western countries are all getting divisive. How it all ends up is anyone's guess.

Boris needs to get with Trump's beautician.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Europe is all over the place. I've got friends and/or fam in several Euro countries. It's as crazy, or crazier than the US. The next ten years there is going to be interesting. Interested to see how the UK peels off the EU. Also interested to see who the next country to exit is. Ultimately, I think the union is a good thing, I simply think they went too far in this version in some areas, and not far enough in others. The Western countries are all getting divisive. How it all ends up is anyone's guess.

You can't have an economic union without political integration as well (important lesson about global capitalism there). Europe isn't ready for the latter, so the former is falling apart.

 

[Irish#1]

No, I'd be reluctant to use that criteria for all countries. Do you think that Trump should use the military without consulting Congress? And only then in cases where U.S. troops are attacked?

I think every president should consult with the military and his intelligence agencies before doing anything, then let leaders (majority & minority) know what is happening.

Because of advances in technology, warfare has changed considerably. Each situation should be addressed, but I don't think action should be taken only when troops are attacked. For instance, shooting down a drone shouldn't mandate immediate retaliation, but what if they continue to shoot down drones and the count is now 10? That's a lot of money down the drain and a total disregard for our country.

 

[Irish#1]

Exclusive: Britain wins early European support for Hormuz naval mission
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...upport-for-hormuz-naval-mission-idUSKCN1UI2C9

I like this. We don't have to be the ring leader everytime. They excluded the U.S. because they don't want Trump mouthing off making things more difficult.

 

[RDU Irish]

I like this. We don't have to be the ring leader everytime. They excluded the U.S. because they don't want Trump mouthing off making things more difficult.

Crazy like a fox.

 

[Legacy]

Congress has refused to act on arms sales to the Saudis. Congress passed three bills blocking $8 billion of arms sales to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the UK, France, Spain and Italy, condemning the Saudis war on Yemen and for murdering Khashoggi. So, knowing Congress was not going to approve the sale and that these resolutions were coming, Pompeo used an emergency provision to make the sale. Congress does not have the votes to override the veto. This first sale includes kits to convert bombs into Paveway II precision-guided munitions, fuzes and related components. This precedes a further sale of weapons for up to $100 Billion without Congressional action or approval. Negotiations for the sale of weapons started in the Obama Administration. The Democratic House has been particularly opposed to the sales, which may well soon include "combat aircraft" such as the F-35, IOMAX Archangel aircraft in light combat intended to be used in the Yemen war, and attack helicopters. After Patrick Shanahan, a former top administrator for Lockheed which makes the stealth F-35, withdrew from the Secretary of Defense job, Mark Esper, a former VP for Raytheon which also supplies armament systems especially missiles that may be sold to the Gulf states, has now been confirmed as SecDef. Whether this type of end run around Congressional authority was a factor in Mattis' resignation has not been acknowledged. In his resignation letter, Matttis did say:

My views on treating allies with respect and also being clear-eyed about both malign actors and strategic competitors are strongly held and informed by over four decades of immersion in these issues. We must do everything possible to advance an international order that is most conducive to our security, prosperity and values, and we are strengthened in this effort by the solidarity of our alliances. Because you have the right to have a Secretary of Defense whose views are better aligned with yours on these and other subjects,

 

[Irish YJ]

Congress has refused to act on arms sales to the Saudis. Congress passed three bills blocking $8 billion of arms sales to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the UK, France, Spain and Italy, condemning the Saudis war on Yemen and for murdering Khashoggi. So, knowing Congress was not going to approve the sale and that these resolutions were coming, Pompeo used an emergency provision to make the sale. Congress does not have the votes to override the veto. This first sale includes kits to convert bombs into Paveway II precision-guided munitions, fuzes and related components. This precedes a further sale of weapons for up to $100 Billion without Congressional action or approval. Negotiations for the sale of weapons started in the Obama Administration. The Democratic House has been particularly opposed to the sales, which may well soon include "combat aircraft" such as the F-35, IOMAX Archangel aircraft in light combat intended to be used in the Yemen war, and attack helicopters. After Patrick Shanahan, a former top administrator for Lockheed which makes the stealth F-35, withdrew from the Secretary of Defense job, Mark Esper, a former VP for Raytheon which also supplies armament systems especially missiles that may be sold to the Gulf states, has now been confirmed as SecDef. Whether this type of end run around Congressional authority was a factor in Mattis' resignation has not been acknowledged. In his resignation letter, Matttis did say:

So in terms of the Yemen civil war, are you

A) anti Hadi (the side the US, UK, Saudis, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Sudan, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Somalia are on)

or are you

B) pro Huthi (the side with the slogan "God is great, death to the US, death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory for Islam" for 15+ years) who is backed by Iran?

 

[PraetorianND]

So in terms of the Yemen civil war, are you

A) anti Hadi (the side the US, UK, Saudis, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Sudan, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Somalia are on)

or are you

B) pro Huthi (the side with the slogan "God is great, death to the US, death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory for Islam" for 15+ years) who is backed by Iran?

It’s honestly not worth it. They will be hysterical about whatever the news tells them to be. They have no logic and can’t aggregate facts and come to their own conclusions. You already know the answer to your own question. Orange man bad.

 

[Irish YJ]

It’s honestly not worth it. They will be hysterical about whatever the news tells them to be. They have no logic and can’t aggregate facts and come to their own conclusions. You already know the answer to your own question. Orange man bad.

You're right. I'd bet money Legacy hasn't a clue about the Yemen civil war (or Yemen history in general), who Hadi is, or who the Houthi are. Most of Legacy posts, outside of his attempt to link you death, sound like copy/pastes from the lib papers he links.

Anyone who has a clue about the ME or it's history, knows that there's zero true good guys there, anywhere. And every country has two faces.

 

[Irish#1]

You're right. I'd bet money Legacy hasn't a clue about the Yemen civil war (or Yemen history in general), who Hadi is, or who the Houthi are. Most of Legacy posts, outside of his attempt to link you death, sound like copy/pastes from the lib papers he links.

Anyone who has a clue about the ME or it's history, knows that there's zero true good guys there, anywhere. And every country has two faces.

Yep

Maybe we should take any money for "the wall" and build one giant MF'ing wall around the ME. Put a lid on it and once the dust settles, we can deal with what little is left over.

 

[Legacy]

So in terms of the Yemen civil war, are you

A) anti Hadi (the side the US, UK, Saudis, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Sudan, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Somalia are on)

or are you

B) pro Huthi (the side with the slogan "God is great, death to the US, death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory for Islam" for 15+ years) who is backed by Iran?

That's a pretty irrelevant question, isn't it? Or don't you see that?

 

[Irish#1]

That's a pretty irrelevant question, isn't it? Or don't you see that?

 

[PraetorianND]

That's a pretty irrelevant question, isn't it? Or don't you see that?

Ironic -

I will respond to comments that have a degree of respect for a differing opinion based on those type of sources. Otherwise, don't expect any responses with the typifications and adjectives that lack that measure. Understand that in others minds one can be redefining the TDS in face of the sources above. A more informative comment might include the Trump numbers I've linked prior, referred to and posted again.

 

[Irish YJ]

That's a pretty irrelevant question, isn't it? Or don't you see that?

I think it's very relevant to question your knowledge, or lack there of, on something you seem to be strongly condemning and clearly one sided on. Don't use something (Yemen) in your argument that you won't debate or find irrelevant.

If the history of the Yemen civil war, or the understanding of both sides, is irrelevant.... Than what's driving your condemnation? Is it simply Orange Man Bad? Saudi Arabia Bad? Or is it Khashoggi good.

If it's the later, I would also challenge your knowledge about Khashoggi. While I don't condone murder, let's not pretend Khashoggi was just some do gooder journalist that worked for lib papers. Did you know Khashoggi was a buddy of OBL, and mourned his death. Did you know he was a supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood. Did you know he was an insider to the House of Saud and had an on again off again relationship with them. Hell, his news network was even funded by the HoS. Did you know he was likely a spook in the SAIA as well as the CIA? The guy was not just some altruistic innocent. He tried to live on both sides of the line, and he danced with multiple devils. What do they say happens when you dance with the Devil? But hey, he was a contributor for WAPO, so he must be good, right?

In short, you continually post one sided links, posts, etc.. And then when engaged with fair questions or counter data, you dance... Do yourself a favor and read something other than lib sources. Do the research to understand things at it's core instead of regurgitating lib links and sources.

 

[Irish YJ]

Ironic -

Very ironic. I fixed it for Legacy so there is no misunderstanding going forward.

Originally Posted by Legacy View Post
I will respond to comments that have a degree of respect for a differing opinion based on those type of sources. If I have no understanding of the situation and questioned, I will deem it irrelevant. If asked questions about the hypocritical and convenient nature of articles from the same source, which utilizes both sides of an issue when it fits my narrative, I will act like I didn't link both articles that counter each other. I will only reply to softballs, and will duck any hard question because it's not fair.

 

[Legacy]

The annual National Defense Authorization Act bills have been passed by both the House and the Senate with differences to be ironed out in conference. Some of the provisions in the House bill include topics introduced here as well as others.
They include:
- cutting Trump's spending request for $750 billion by $17 billion with concern for the debt
- limiting Trump's ability to go to war with Iran unless Congress authorizes military action
- overturning the administration's transgender troop ban
- curtailing arms sales to Saudi Arabia and support for its military intervention in Yemen's bloody civil war
- limiting Trump’s power to shift military funds for use in building the wall or to deploy troops to work on the border
- incorporated a massive benefits expansion for military personnel and federal workers
- repeal a deeply unpopular offset in military survivors benefits offered by the Defense and Veterans Affairs Departments, known as the "widow's tax."
- overturn the so-called Feres Doctrine, which bars active-duty troops from suing the military for medical malpractice
- provide federal workers with 12 weeks of paid family leave
- prohibits the U.S. military from deploying low-yield nuclear weapons
- allows U.S. detainees at a military base in Guantanamo Bay to be moved to the United States

Both give military personnel a 3.1% raise

Both bills would mandate the military services to adopt a Tenants' Bill of Rights in response to myriad problems with privatized military family housing investigated by Congress this year

Both would bar Turkey, a NATO ally, from taking on the F-35 fighter in retaliation for purchasing the S-400 missile system from Russia. Turkey took its first delivery of the system on Friday.

Both bills would create a new military space service under the Air Force, a major shakeup first proposed by the House and later endorsed by Trump and the Pentagon brass. Trump wanted a new branch of the military for Space Force

Both bills restrict perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances - PFAS Solution Moving Through Congress on Must-Pass Defense Bill

Russia and the Middle East
Russia, in addition to supplying Turkey with S-400 missile system and backing the Syrian administration, has signed a $2 Billion deal with Egypt to supply Su-35 fighter jets. Those jets were deployed in Syria. The United Arab Emirates, India, Algeria, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, North Korea, Pakistan and Sudan are reportedly among the potential buyers of their jet fighter. UAE however has recently bought F-35s in the weapons purchases announced with the Saudi Arabia deal. Qatar purchased 36 F-15QA fighter jets in 2017.

Egypt and Russia have signed 50-year industrial zone agreement for Egypt's newly created Suez Canal Economic Zone in the New Suez Canal, which has also drawn European investment.

 

[Legacy]

New alignments - as well as competitions in the Horn of Africa - have developed reflected in the responses to the Arab Spring superseding sectarianism.

New Alignments in the Horn of Africa

Middle East’s power struggle moves to the Horn of Africa

 

[Irish YJ]

The annual National Defense Authorization Act bills have been passed by both the House and the Senate with differences to be ironed out in conference. Some of the provisions in the House bill include topics introduced here as well as others.
They include:
- cutting Trump's spending request for $750 billion by $17 billion with concern for the debt
- limiting Trump's ability to go to war with Iran unless Congress authorizes military action
- overturning the administration's transgender troop ban
- curtailing arms sales to Saudi Arabia and support for its military intervention in Yemen's bloody civil war
- limiting Trump’s power to shift military funds for use in building the wall or to deploy troops to work on the border
- incorporated a massive benefits expansion for military personnel and federal workers
- repeal a deeply unpopular offset in military survivors benefits offered by the Defense and Veterans Affairs Departments, known as the "widow's tax."
- overturn the so-called Feres Doctrine, which bars active-duty troops from suing the military for medical malpractice
- provide federal workers with 12 weeks of paid family leave
- prohibits the U.S. military from deploying low-yield nuclear weapons
- allows U.S. detainees at a military base in Guantanamo Bay to be moved to the United States

Both give military personnel a 3.1% raise

Both bills would mandate the military services to adopt a Tenants' Bill of Rights in response to myriad problems with privatized military family housing investigated by Congress this year

Both would bar Turkey, a NATO ally, from taking on the F-35 fighter in retaliation for purchasing the S-400 missile system from Russia. Turkey took its first delivery of the system on Friday.

Both bills would create a new military space service under the Air Force, a major shakeup first proposed by the House and later endorsed by Trump and the Pentagon brass. Trump wanted a new branch of the military for Space Force

Both bills restrict perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances - PFAS Solution Moving Through Congress on Must-Pass Defense Bill

Russia and the Middle East
Russia, in addition to supplying Turkey with S-400 missile system and backing the Syrian administration, has signed a $2 Billion deal with Egypt to supply Su-35 fighter jets. Those jets were deployed in Syria. The United Arab Emirates, India, Algeria, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, North Korea, Pakistan and Sudan are reportedly among the potential buyers of their jet fighter. UAE however has recently bought F-35s in the weapons purchases announced with the Saudi Arabia deal. Qatar purchased 36 F-15QA fighter jets in 2017.

Egypt and Russia have signed 50-year industrial zone agreement for Egypt's newly created Suez Canal Economic Zone in the New Suez Canal, which has also drawn European investment.

I have a feeling that a lot of that won't make the cut..... and some that might make the cut, will likely see a veto and not have the votes to override.

On the S-400 / F35 topic... that's what happens when we don't sell. They go somewhere else. Your condemnation of selling weapons to SA will only lead the Saudis to knock on Putin's door, and build that relationship.

 

[Old Man Mike]

I'm hearing a sort-of dialogue here around the Yemen situation. I'm no expert but my suspicions are that none of this is directly to do with Yemen. Yemen, and its horrific "social situation" is a pawn in a much bigger game wherein I doubt anyone other than humanitarians (operating much lower on the scale than World Movers and Shakers) really gives s sh!t about.

This "game" has to do (again in my ignorant opinion --- one needs a LOT of dedication to study on this one) --- with Ethiopia/Eritrea/Sudan/Djibouti/UAE/Turkey/Saudi/Somalia/Port-of-Aden/ China/USA/Russia/Qatar/and the role of things like The Muslim Brotherhood in Turkey than whether who is killing who in Yemen.

On the one hand you have Ethiopia in drastic need of a Red Sea port now that Djibouti shut them off, but for various reasons a treaty with Eritrea is hateful to both, and a scrambling powerpoint for almost everyone else noted above. Turkey wants a presence (i.e. bases) there from which to establish strong economic presence in the Horn, plus oil presence (with Qatar/UAE) with Ethiopia. plus the easy chances to attack the Saudis if they wish.

On another hand, the Saudis hate all of this having as they do a continual hatred for the Turks and visa versa --- going back to Ottoman Empire (The Sunni Empire) history and constantly re-inflamed by characters like Erdogan. These two Sunni wannabee leader nations hate each other for (to me) astoundingly stupid cultural/historical reasons. The US has been attempting a balance-of-power between the two idiot nations for decades with portioning out its arms sales.

On the third hand (really studying these dead-simple issues quickly uncovers how complex they actually are) China and the Oil Emirates and Turkey and Russia ALL want military bases and presences in one or more of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, along with Djibouti. Chess matches are taking place all over this map and in multidimensional space with no predictability yet monstrous risks.

Whatever "we" decide to do will be almost not-at-all to do with Yemen humanitarianism, but rather with

1. Keeping our own economic interests in good positions;
2. Keeping our military bases in good positions;
3. Keeping China as far from effective meddling in both as possible (not really possible);
4. Keeping Russia as far from effective meddling in both as possible (somewhat do-able --- they don't have the huge $$.);
5. Keeping the Saudis and the Turks from actually bombing one another (Do-able as it's not really in their interest except for rare insane leadership);
6. Keeping the Saudis from overly bullying the Emirates and Qatar;
7. Keeping somewhat alert as to fermenting grounds for Islamic Terrorists (The Brotherhood is not the big issue here.)

I note that Yemen is a secondary thought in all of this. Even if it shouldn't be.

Admittedly, this is WAY beyond my paygrade to wrap my head around. ... or apparently most in the State Department and Congress.

 

[Irish YJ]

I'm hearing a sort-of dialogue here around the Yemen situation. I'm no expert but my suspicions are that none of this is directly to do with Yemen. Yemen, and its horrific "social situation" is a pawn in a much bigger game wherein I doubt anyone other than humanitarians (operating much lower on the scale than World Movers and Shakers) really gives s sh!t about.

This "game" has to do (again in my ignorant opinion --- one needs a LOT of dedication to study on this one) --- with Ethiopia/Eritrea/Sudan/Djibouti/UAE/Turkey/Saudi/Somalia/Port-of-Aden/ China/USA/Russia/Qatar/and the role of things like The Muslim Brotherhood in Turkey than whether who is killing who in Yemen.

On the one hand you have Ethiopia in drastic need of a Red Sea port now that Djibouti shut them off, but for various reasons a treaty with Eritrea is hateful to both, and a scrambling powerpoint for almost everyone else noted above. Turkey wants a presence (i.e. bases) there from which to establish strong economic presence in the Horn, plus oil presence (with Qatar/UAE) with Ethiopia. plus the easy chances to attack the Saudis if they wish.

On another hand, the Saudis hate all of this having as they do a continual hatred for the Turks and visa versa --- going back to Ottoman Empire (The Sunni Empire) history and constantly re-inflamed by characters like Erdogan. These two Sunni wannabee leader nations hate each other for (to me) astoundingly stupid cultural/historical reasons. The US has been attempting a balance-of-power between the two idiot nations for decades with portioning out its arms sales.

On the third hand (really studying these dead-simple issues quickly uncovers how complex they actually are) China and the Oil Emirates and Turkey and Russia ALL want military bases and presences in one or more of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, along with Djibouti. Chess matches are taking place all over this map and in multidimensional space with no predictability yet monstrous risks.

Whatever "we" decide to do will be almost not-at-all to do with Yemen humanitarianism, but rather with

1. Keeping our own economic interests in good positions;
2. Keeping our military bases in good positions;
3. Keeping China as far from effective meddling in both as possible (not really possible);
4. Keeping Russia as far from effective meddling in both as possible (somewhat do-able --- they don't have the huge $$.);
5. Keeping the Saudis and the Turks from actually bombing one another (Do-able as it's not really in their interest except for rare insane leadership);
6. Keeping the Saudis from overly bullying the Emirates and Qatar;
7. Keeping somewhat alert as to fermenting grounds for Islamic Terrorists (The Brotherhood is not the big issue here.)

I note that Yemen is a secondary thought in all of this. Even if it shouldn't be.

Admittedly, this is WAY beyond my paygrade to wrap my head around. ... or apparently most in the State Department and Congress.

Good post OMM. I'd point out that Yemen is not the only crazy complex situation in the ME (and the expanded region) right now. The region is a multidimensional cluster.

I'd add that you also have AQ in Yemen, not to mention both pro-Hadi ISIL and pro-Houthie ISIL and jihadists. The Saudis IIRC just caught a top ISIL guy last month. It's a complete mess. I certainly don't support some of SA's tactics, but I also understand the threats at their border, and it's not like the Houthie aren't killing innocent folk daily too. There are no "good" guys in the situation. Just varying levels/degrees of bad guys with a lot of innocent folks in the middle.

And bridging back to Legacy's post on the topic.... Not selling arms to SA changes nothing. If anything, the Saudis just ring up Putin or another and form another friendship of convenience.