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Bogtrotter07 OP#1: So the basic ethical, moral, and scientific question is : "Is putting more earned wealth into the hands of more people the solution to the economic problems faced by America today?" If not, what is? (from The Street)

If Donald Trump Is Elected President, Here's What Could Happen to the U.S. Economy

Nonpartisan tax research group the Tax Foundation calculates that Trump's plan would cut taxes by $11.98 trillion over the course of a decade. It would lead to 11% growth in the GDP, 6.5% higher wages and 29% larger capital stock as well as 5.3 million jobs. However, it would also reduce tax revenues by $10.14 trillion, even when accounting for economic growth from increases in the supply of labor and capital.

"That tax cut would produce faster economic growth and a bigger economy -- as long as you pay zero attention to the fact that it would dramatically increase the deficit and budget debt," said Pethokoukis.

Covers cost of his immigration proposals, impact of his trade reform, implementation of tariffs, healthcare reform, response of the stock market, etc.
 
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After discussing with a fellow poster, thought I would share this story of "rebirth" in my home town. It is a fairly lengthy article but it touches on many of the economic issues facing small towns across the Delta, and the potential that can be unlocked with private investment that, at least in our case, will likely never pay for itself.

The wizard of Wilson | Cover Stories | Arkansas news, politics, opinion, restaurants, music, movies and art


If this inspires you to visit I'll buy your first doughnut bread pudding from the Café. Sadly my moving back home did not get mentioned in the article as a catalyst . :)
 

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When Armyirish47 PM'd me that article, it made me wonder what we could accomplish if more of our wealthy citizens chose to champion small local communities instead of just being anonymous assholes in Manhattan or San Francisco. Also brought this Chesterton quote to mind:

Let us suppose we are confronted with a desperate thing – say Pimlico. If we think what is really best for Pimlico we shall find the thread of thought leads to the throne of the mystic and the arbitrary. It is not enough for a man to disapprove of Pimlico; in that case he will merely cut his throat or move to Chelsea. Nor, certainly, is it enough for a man to approve of Pimlico; for then it will remain Pimlico, which would be awful. The only way out of it seems to be for somebody to love Pimlico; to love it with a transcendental tie and without any earthly reason. If there arose a man who loved Pimlico, then Pimlico would rise into ivory towers and golden pinnacles… If men loved Pimlico as mothers love children, arbitrarily, because it is theirs, Pimlico in a year or two might be fairer than Florence. Some readers will say that this is mere fantasy. I answer that this is the actual history of mankind. This, as a fact, is how cities did grow great. Go back to the darkest roots of civilization and you will find them knotted round some sacred stone or encircling some sacred well. People first paid honour to a spot and afterwards gained glory for it. Men did not love Rome because she was great. She was great because they had loved her.
 
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When Armyirish47 PM'd me that article, it made me wonder what we could accomplish if more of our wealthy citizens chose to champion small local communities instead of just being anonymous assholes in Manhattan or San Francisco. Also brought this Chesterton quote to mind:

Then there is Kevin Williamson:
Nothing happened to them. There wasn’t some awful disaster. There wasn’t a war or a famine or a plague or a foreign occupation. Even the economic changes of the past few decades do very little to explain the dysfunction and negligence — and the incomprehensible malice — of poor white America. So the gypsum business in Garbutt ain’t what it used to be. There is more to life in the 21st century than wallboard and cheap sentimentality about how the Man closed the factories down. The truth about these dysfunctional, downscale communities is that they deserve to die. Economically, they are negative assets. Morally, they are indefensible. Forget all your cheap theatrical Bruce Springsteen crap. Forget your sanctimony about struggling Rust Belt factory towns and your conspiracy theories about the wily Orientals stealing our jobs. Forget your goddamned gypsum, and, if he has a problem with that, forget Ed Burke, too. The white American underclass is in thrall to a vicious, selfish culture whose main products are misery and used heroin needles. Donald Trump’s speeches make them feel good. So does OxyContin. What they need isn’t analgesics, literal or political. They need real opportunity, which means that they need real change, which means that they need U-Haul.

From "Working-Class Communities ‘Deserve To Die’"
 
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Whiskeyjack

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Then there is Kevin Williamson:

From "Working-Class Communities ‘Deserve To Die’"

I obviously don't agree with that sentiment. As a hardcore free-marketeer, he thinks it's a good thing when upwardly mobile citizens move away from places like Garbutt, because "irrational" attachment to place prevents an "efficient" allocation of talent and resources in a constantly evolving global economy. And he's of course partly right about our underclass being in thrall to a viciously self-centered culture. But part of the reason that Garbutt and its residents seem hopeless is because everyone who could have made a difference moved away.

Pietas is an important virtue. Attachment to place is part of that, just as faith, family, and country are. Williamson and others like him don't understand that their brand of economic liberalism is directly hostile to the virtue necessary to make it work humanely. Which is largely why wizards gets so much heat around here when he posts on such topics as well.

For clarity's sake, I've only ever read a few articles by Williamson. He was (rightly) criticized for the article you quoted above, but an AmCon writer I respect (Rod Dreher) tempered that criticism by pointing out that Williamson's work on Appalachia is good (which is why I brought it to ACamp's attention in the Presidential Election thread.) Please don't interpret that link as an intellectual endorsement of the guy, though.
 
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dshans

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Injected for your listening pleasure:

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/njG7p6CSbCU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 

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Wealth Inequality in the United States by Emmanuel Saez (Cal-Berkeley) and Gabriel Zuchman (London School of Economics and Political Science); National Bureau of Economic Research (Oct 2014)

Abstract
This paper contains income tax returns with Flow of Funds data to examine the distribution of household wealth in the United States since 1913...Wealth concentration has flowed a U shape evolution over the last hundred years. It was high in the beginning of the century, fell from 1929 to 1978, and has continuously increased since then. The rise of wealth inequality is almost entirely due to rise of the top 0.1% wealth share, from 7% in 1979 to 22% in 2012 - a level almost as high as in 1929. The bottom 90% wealth share first increased up to the mid-1980s and then steadily declined. The increase in wealth concentration is due to the surge of top incomes combined with an increase in savings rate inequality.

from Bogs O.P.: So the basic ethical, moral, and scientific question is : "Is putting more earned wealth into the hands of more people the solution to the economic problems faced by America today?"
 
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Ndaccountant posted an article in the Presidential Horse Race thread which is worth reposting here.

The subject was how German wage repression and Eurozone built-in currency manipulation had pushed the Eurozone into crisis.

German Wage Repression: Getting to the Roots of the Eurozone Crisis

Excerpts:
Ben Bernanke not only supports recent German wage increases, he also thinks further wage increases for German workers are “warranted and a win-win proposition for Germany and its trade partners”? Now that’s a jaw-dropper. Has the former head of the Federal Reserve Board—the guardian of “price stability,” which makes policy designed to keep U.S. wages in check—switched sides in the class war, now that he is retired?

China is widely accused of “currency manipulation,” keeping the renminbi weak to boost its exports. But few see that the eurozone—the now 19- country bloc sharing the euro as its common currency—has functioned for Germany as a built-in currency manipulation system. And much like China, Germany used a lethal combination of wage repression and an undervalued currency to boost its exports and output at the expense of its trading partners.

Following the adoption of the euro, Germany instituted a set of “labormarket flexibility” policies intended to further improve its international competitiveness. Known as the “Agenda 2010 Reforms,” the new policies reduced pensions, cut medical benefits, and slashed the duration of unemployment benefits from nearly three years to just one. They made it easier to fire workers, while encouraging the creation of parttime and short-term jobs.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reports that, from the mid-1990s to 2008, the incomes of the poorest 30% of Germans actually declined in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. Germany’s repressive labor policies kept a lid on wage growth. In every year from 2000 through the onset of the financial crisis in 2009, German compensation per employee increased more slowly than the eurozone average, and less even than in the United States

In this way, German wage repression is an essential component of the euro crisis. Heiner Flassbeck, the German economist and longtime critic of wage repression, and Costas Lapavistas, the Greek economist best known for his work on financialization, put it best in their recent book Against the Troika: Crisis and Austerity in the Eurozone: “Germany has operated a policy of ‘beggar-thy-neighbor’ but only after ‘beggaring its own people’ by essentially freezing wages. This is the secret of German success during the last fifteen years."
 
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McKinsey recently published an article titled "Redefining Capitalism", which I was prepared to roll my eyes at, but it was actually pretty insightful:

Capitalism is under attack. The financial crisis of 2008, the stagnation of the middle class in many developed countries, and rising income inequality are challenging some of our most deeply held beliefs about how a fair and well-functioning society should be organized.

Many business leaders are of two minds about the situation. They note that market capitalism has yielded massive increases in human prosperity, particularly in the West in the 19th and 20th centuries. More recently, it has lifted hundreds of millions from poverty in emerging economies. Yet despite these historic accomplishments, it’s also easy to worry that something is wrong with how the system is performing today.

This article will argue that while we have been correct to believe that capitalism has been the major source of historical growth and prosperity, we have been mostly incorrect in identifying how and why it worked so well. By analogy, our ancestors did know that the stars and planets moved in the sky and had various theories to explain their observations. But it wasn’t until the Copernican model replaced the Earth with the sun at the center of the solar system and Newton articulated his laws of gravitation that people understood how and why they move.

Likewise, the conventional economic theories we have relied upon for the past century have misled us about the workings of capitalism. Only by replacing our old theories with better and more modern ones will we build the deeper understanding necessary to improve our capitalist system.

Rocking-horse versus wild-horse economics

For the past century, the dominant economic paradigm—neoclassical economics—has painted a narrow and mechanistic view of how capitalism works, focusing on the role of markets and prices in the efficient allocation of society’s resources. The story is familiar: rational, self-interested firms maximize profits; rational, self-interested consumers maximize their “utility”; the decisions of these actors drive supply to equal demand; prices are set; the market clears; and resources are allocated in a socially optimal way.

Over the past several decades, though, some of the bedrock assumptions of neoclassical theory have begun to unravel. Behavioral economists have accumulated a mountain of evidence showing that real humans don’t behave as a rational homo economicus would. Experimental economists have raised awkward questions about the very existence of utility; and that is problematic because it has long been the device economists use to show that markets maximize social welfare. Empirical economists have identified anomalies suggesting that financial markets aren’t always efficient. And the macroeconomic models built on neoclassical ideas performed very poorly during the financial crisis.

Andy Haldane, the chief economist of the Bank of England, notes that the conventional theory views the economy as a rocking horse that, when perturbed by an outside force, sways for a while before predictably settling back down to a static equilibrium. But, as Haldane has pointed out, what we saw during the crisis was more like a herd of wild horses—something spooks one of them, it kicks another horse, and pretty soon the whole herd is running wildly in a pattern of complex, dynamic behavior.

In the years before the crisis, a new view of economics began to stir. Since the crisis, it has begun to blossom. This view holds that the economy is a constantly evolving, interacting network of highly diverse households, firms, banks, regulators, and other agents, more like Haldane’s wild herd than a rocking horse. The economy—a complex, dynamic, open, and nonlinear system—has more in common with an ecosystem than with the mechanistic systems the neoclassicists modeled their theory on. The implications of this emerging view are only just beginning to be explored. But the two of us believe it has fundamental implications for how people think about the nature of capitalism and prosperity.

Significantly, this view shifts our perspective on how and why markets work from their allocative efficiency to their effectiveness in promoting creativity. It suggests that markets are evolutionary systems that each day carry out millions of simultaneous experiments on ways to make our lives better. In other words, the essential role of capitalism is not allocation—it is creation. Life isn’t drastically better for billions of people today than it was in 1800 because we are allocating the resources of the 19th-century economy more efficiently. Rather, it is better because we have life-saving antibiotics, indoor plumbing, motorized transport, access to vast amounts of information, and an enormous number of technical and social innovations that have become available to much (if not yet all) of the world’s population. The genius of capitalism is that it both creates incentives for solving human problems and makes those solutions widely available. And it is solutions to human problems that define prosperity, not money.

Prosperity redefined

Most of us intuitively believe that the more money people have, the more prosperous a society must be. America’s average household disposable income in 2013 was $38,001, versus $28,194 for Canada ; therefore, people believe, America is more prosperous than Canada.

But the idea that prosperity is simply about having money can be disproved with a simple thought experiment. Imagine you had the $38,001 income of a typical American but lived among the Yanomami people, an isolated hunter-gatherer tribe deep in the Brazilian rainforest. You’d easily be the richest of the Yanomami (they don’t use money, but anthropologists estimate their standard of living at something around $90 a year). But you’d still feel a lot poorer than the average American. Even after you’d fixed up your hut, bought the best baskets in the village, and eaten the finest Yanomami cuisine, all of your riches still wouldn’t get you antibiotics, air conditioning, or a comfy bed. Yet even the poorest Americans typically have access to these important elements of well-being.

This is why prosperity in human societies can’t be properly understood by looking just at monetary measures, such as income or wealth. Prosperity in a society is the accumulation of solutions to human problems.

These solutions run from the prosaic (crunchier potato chips) to the profound (cures for deadly diseases). Ultimately, the measure of the wealth of a society is the range of human problems it has solved and how available it has made those solutions to its people. Every item in a modern retail store can be thought of as a solution to a different kind of problem—how to eat, dress, entertain, make homes more comfortable, and so on. The more and better the solutions available to us, the more prosperity we have.

Growth redefined

We typically talk about growth in terms of GDP, though it has been much criticized recently as a measure of progress. There have been a variety of attempts to make GDP account for things such as environmental damage, unpaid work, the progress of technology, or the development of human capital.

In our view, the biggest problem with GDP is that it doesn’t necessarily reflect how growth changes the real, lived experience of most people. In the United States, for example, GDP has more than tripled over the last three decades. Although those increases have been concentrated at the top of the income spectrum, people across the board have benefited from improvements in technology (say, safer cars, new medical treatments, and smartphones). Other changes, though, have been accompanied by unintended consequences (such as the stress many knowledge workers feel from 24/7 connectivity). Is life actually better or worse for most people? How are the gains of growth shared? GDP cannot answer these questions.

If the concept of growth is to have significance, it should represent improvements in lived experience. If the real measure of a society’s prosperity is the availability of solutions to human problems, growth cannot simply be measured by changes in GDP. Rather, it must be a measure of the rate at which new solutions to human problems become available.

Going from fearing death by sinus infection one day to having access to life-saving antibiotics the next, for example, is growth. Going from sweltering in the heat one day to living with air conditioning the next is growth. Going from walking long distances to driving is growth. Going from needing to look up basic information in a library to having all the world’s information instantly available on your phone is growth.

Growth is best thought of as an increase in the quality and availability of solutions to human problems. Problems differ in importance, and a new view of growth must take this into account: finding a cure for cancer would trump many other product innovations. But in general, economic growth is the actual experience of having our lives improved.

This is different from other alternative measures of growth. For example, research shows that happiness does not necessarily correlate with GDP growth—Bhutan has even famously developed a Gross National Happiness (GNH) Index. Likewise, the United Nations created a Human Development Index (HDI) based on Amartya Sen’s theory of human capabilities and freedom. What the two of us are proposing sits somewhere between GDP and these measures. Like GDP, it is intended to be a definition of material prosperity. But it is also a more meaningful way of thinking about material standards of living than GDP.

Can the rate at which solutions appear and their availability be measured? While such a measure has not been tried yet, we believe it is possible. Inflation is measured by looking at changes in the prices of goods and services in a “basket” typically consumed by households. Similarly, it’s possible to look at how the actual contents of such a basket are changing across time or how they differ across countries or levels of income. What kind of food, housing, clothing, transport, healthcare, education, leisure, and entertainment do people have access to?

Capitalism redefined

If prosperity is created by solving human problems, a key question for society is what kind of economic system will solve the most problems for the most people most quickly. This is the genius of capitalism: it is an unmatched evolutionary system for finding solutions.

Finding new solutions to human problems is rarely easy or obvious—if it was, they would have already been found. For example, what is the optimal way to solve the problem of human-powered transportation? There are a multitude of options: bicycles, tricycles, unicycles, scooters, and so on. Human creativity develops a variety of ways to solve such problems, but some inevitably work better than others, and we need a process for sorting the wheat from the chaff. We also need a process for making good solutions widely available.

Capitalism is the mechanism by which these processes occur. It provides incentives for millions of problem-solving experiments to occur every day, provides competition to select the best solutions, and provides incentives and mechanisms for scaling up and making the best solutions available. Meanwhile, it scales down or eliminates less successful ones. The great economist Joseph Schumpeter called this evolutionary process “creative destruction.”

The orthodox economic view holds that capitalism works because it is efficient. But in reality, capitalism’s great strength is its problem-solving creativity and effectiveness. It is this creative effectiveness that by necessity makes it hugely inefficient and, like all evolutionary processes, inherently wasteful. Proof of this can be found in the large numbers of product lines, investments, and business ventures that fail every year. Successful capitalism requires what venture capitalist William Janeway calls “Schumpeterian waste.”

The role of business

Every business is based on an idea about how to solve a problem. The process of converting great ideas into products and services that effectively fulfill fast-changing human needs is what defines most businesses. Thus, the crucial contribution business makes to society is transforming ideas into products and services that solve problems.

This sounds simple and obvious, and many executives would say, “Of course that is what we do.” But again, that is not what standard theory says businesses should do. In the 1970s and 1980s, academic work based on neoclassical theory argued that maximizing shareholder value should be the sole objective of business. If corporations just did this, said these professors, they would maximize overall economic efficiency and social welfare. This focus did correct some deficiencies in the previous system, most notably by empowering shareholders to push back against CEOs who maximized the size of their empires rather than economic returns.

But some argue that elevating the creation of shareholder value to the status of primary objective is based on a faulty assumption—that capital is the scarcest resource in an economy, when in reality it’s knowledge that’s the scarce, critical ingredient in solving problems. It has also led to a myopic focus on quarterly earnings and short-term share-price swings, to say nothing of a decline in long-term investment. This is in startling contrast to the attitudes of even the recent past. If you asked a CEO in the 1950s, an era of tremendous prosperity growth, what his job was, his first reply would probably have been “to make great products and services for customers.” After that, the CEO might have said something about looking after his company’s employees, making profits to invest in future growth—and then, finally, giving the shareholders a decent, competitive return.

We believe that a reorientation toward seeing businesses as society’s problem solvers rather than simply as vehicles for creating shareholder returns would provide a better description of what businesses actually do. It could help executives better balance the interests of the multiple stakeholders they need to manage. It could also help shift incentives back toward long-term investment—after all, few complex human problems can be solved in one quarter.

This is not to say that shareholders or other owners are unimportant. But providing them with a return that is competitive compared with the alternatives is a boundary condition for a successful business; it is not the purpose of a business. After all, having enough food is a boundary condition for life—but the purpose of life is more than just eating.

Some companies already think in these terms. Google, for example, defines its mission as “to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful”—a statement about solving a problem for people. And it famously refuses to provide quarterly financial forecasts.

Government redefined

Traditional economic theory holds that markets are efficient, inherently maximize welfare, and work best when managed least. But such perfect markets don’t seem to exist in the real world. Furthermore, this view fails to recognize that the great genius of capitalism—solving people’s problems—has, by necessity, a dark side: the solution to one person’s problem can create problems for someone else.

This is the age-old puzzle of political economy: how does an economic system resolve conflicts and distribute benefits? A fancy derivative product may help corporate treasurers solve their problem of managing corporate risk, and it might make bankers rich, but it might also create greater systemic risk for the financial system as a whole. Likewise, eating fatty food may solve someone’s problem of satisfying unconscious desires programmed by millennia of evolution. But it might also create new problems of clogged arteries and burden society with that person’s future health costs.

It can be challenging to distinguish between problem-solving and problem-creating economic activity. And who has the moral right to decide? Democracy is the best mechanism humans have come up with for navigating the trade-offs and weaknesses inherent in capitalism. Democracies allow its inevitable conflicts to be resolved in a way that maximizes fairness and legitimacy and that broadly reflects society’s views.

Seeing prosperity as solutions helps explain why democracy is so highly correlated with prosperity. Democracies actually help create prosperity because they do several things better than other systems of government. They tend to build economies that are more inclusive, enabling more citizens to be both creators of solutions and customers for other people’s solutions. And they offer the best way to resolve conflicts over whether economic activity is generating solutions or problems. Many (though not all) government regulations are created to do just that—to encourage economic activity that solves problems and to discourage economic activity that creates them—thus fostering trust and cooperation in society.

Businesspeople often complain about regulation—and indeed many regulations are poorly designed or unnecessary—but the reality is that solving capitalism’s problems requires the trust and cooperation that good regulation fosters. It is notable that the most prosperous economies in the world all mix regulation with free markets, while unregulated and anarchic economies are universally poor.

What problems do you solve?

Once we understand that the solutions capitalism produces are what creates real prosperity in people’s lives, and that the rate at which we create solutions is true economic growth, then it becomes obvious that entrepreneurs and business leaders bear a major part of both the credit and the responsibility for creating societal prosperity. But standard measures of business’s contribution—profits, growth rates, and shareholder value—are poor proxies. Businesses contribute to society by creating and making available products and services that improve people’s lives in tangible ways, while simultaneously providing employment that enables people to afford the products and services of other businesses. It sounds basic, and it is, but our economic theories and metrics don’t frame things this way.

Today our culture celebrates money and wealth as the benchmarks of success. This has been reinforced by the prevailing theory. Suppose that instead we celebrated innovative solutions to human problems. Imagine being at a party and rather than being asked, “What do you do?”—code for how much money do you make and what status do you have—you were asked, “What problems do you solve?” Both capitalism and our society would be the better for it.

Free enterprise as a system of innovation and discovery instead of greed and monopoly is much easier to defend.
 

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The Ninskanen Center's Will Wilkinson just published an article titled "The Great Enrichment and Social Justice":

The great strange fact of human history is how it came to be that a good chunk of our species, after more than 100,000 years of scraping by, suddenly got rather wildly rich. Deirdre McCloskey, the eminent economic historian and social theorist, calls it the “Great Enrichment.”

Here’s a picture:

Growth.jpg


(Source: Alex Tabarrok and Tyler Cowen, Modern Principles of Economics.)

The suddenness of the Great Enrichment is nuts. Graphs like this one actually conceal how nuts it is. Imagine a linear horizontal axis that is nothing but a flat line hovering above zero for, like, a mile. And then, about a second ago in geological time, wham! And here you are, probably wearing pants, reading about it on a glowing screen. Nuts is what it is.

Accounting for the Great Enrichment is the deepest puzzle of the social sciences. Some think it was all just a matter of figuring out how to exploit natural resources, or some combination of enslavement, exploitation, and colonial plunder, or maybe it was just geographic and genetic good luck. None of that really explains it.

Joel Mokyr says it was the development of science and technology. Douglass North and his followers, such as Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, say it was a matter of stumbling into the right political and economic “institutions”—of getting the “rules of the game” right. Acemoglu and Robinson say institutions need to be “inclusive” rather than “extractive.” They become more inclusive when ruling elites take a little pressure off the boot they’ve got on people’s backs (which they do mainly when cornered by effective collective action from below) and allow economic and political rights to expand. Deirdre McCloskey says the Great Enrichment came about from a shift in beliefs and moral norms that finally lent dignity and esteem to the commercial classes, their “bourgeois” virtues, and the tasks of trade and betterment. This revaluation of values was the advent of what has come to be known as “liberalism.”

Each of these views is part of the truth. The debate is mainly a matter of how beliefs and norms, institutions and incentives, scientific knowledge and technical innovation all fit together. Which are the causes and which are the effects? There’s no way to adequately summarize the involuted nuance of the debate. But it’s not wrong to sum it up bluntly like this: humans rather suddenly got immensely better at cooperating and now a lot of us are really rich.

Before I go on, I hasten to add that not all of us are really rich. Most humans don’t live in the places first touched by the Great Enrichment and aren’t that rich now. Moreover, the path from “extractive” to “inclusive” institutions in the places that did get rich has been bumpy and brutal, and the liberal revaluation of values has always been opportunistically applied and rife with hypocrisy.

Here’s a familiar example. When the American colonial elites, piqued by their lack of power to set local policy, rebelled against their king and seceded from his empire, they drew on compelling new liberal ideas about natural equality and set up a constitution that was, at the time, a huge leap forward toward more “inclusive” institutions. But their rebellion and new liberal legal order locked in place an absolutely monstrous, maximally exclusive, maximally extractive system of human enslavement—which, it so happens, was abolished across the British Empire in 1833, three decades before the Emancipation Proclamation. Suffice it to say, the complaints of George Washington and Thomas Jefferson against King George were completely trivial next to the complaints of the people Jefferson and Washington bought and bred and worked and whipped like so much livestock. The enrichment has been great, but its progress has been greatly uneven and its riches unevenly, unfairly spread. These inequalities shape our world, and our politics, to this day.

Still, a lot of us did get rich, and it happened through grand improvements in the scope and fruitfulness of cooperation. We cooperate because we do better together. When we effectively coordinate our efforts, we produce gains over and above what we could have done acting independently. Those gains are the “surplus” of cooperation. Enrichment—that is to say, economic growth—is about creating ever more and ever larger surpluses from cooperation.

But whenever we produce a surplus there’s always the question of how to divvy it up. If it’s a question about how to divide it fairly—about who ought to get what, rather than about who has the power to snatch the most—then it’s a question of “distributive justice.”

Questions of distributive justice are hard. Who did how much work? How well did they do it? How relatively valuable were the efforts of the various contributors to the common enterprise? Maybe everyone agreed to the division in advance. But was the distribution of bargaining power that led to the agreement itself fair?

Our answers to these questions matter. When the distribution of the burdens and benefits of cooperation aren’t fair, we get fed up. And we want to keep positive-sum games going. We need to keep them going. But if we keep getting less than those doing less, we feel used. So we fight for our share. We develop enforcement mechanism to punish free-riders. We impose sanctions. We negotiate. According to some thinkers, the adaptive function of some of our most basic emotions is to police compliance with cooperative norms and bargain over who does and gets how much of what. An indignant fit of pique, slow-burning resentment, an explosion of petulant anger—all are common “moves” in everyday distributional negotiation. If we can’t negotiate a fairer deal, we’ll withdraw or minimize our efforts, one way or another. The surpluses will get smaller. Positive-sum enrichment might turn into negative-sum conflict. Lacking good exit options, mainly we press on and bargain the best we can with the leverage we’ve got.

Humans may be natural cooperators with a built-in instinct for distributive fairness, but we’re also natural opportunists who will negotiate over everything, including the very idea of distributive fairness, to increase or preserve our shares. “That’s not fair!” is always a bargaining move and only sometimes a fact.

Surplus-promoting distributive fairness is so hard to achieve in part because we rarely agree when it is a fact. People with outsized bargaining power have always found a way to convince themselves that they deserve it, and they tend to use that power to crush those clamoring, often righteously, for a bigger cut of the surplus. Indeed, the powerful get nervous when a fairer distribution of burdens and benefits induces greater cooperative effort, spurs creativity, and creates larger surpluses—even if it makes them richer. The trouble is that growth makes others richer, too, decentering power, inviting challenges from rival, new-money elites. So the old guard sooner or later tends to close ranks and reassert rules of exclusion and exploitation and stagnation. Acemogulu and Robinson say something like this happened to the Venetians, to the Romans, probably even happened to the Mayans. We’ve always had the potential for great enrichment in us, but we always managed to crush it with domination, expropriation, and war. Until, miraculously, we didn’t.

When people talk about “social justice,” sometimes they’re really talking about “distributive justice.” The immense influence of socialist ideology in the 20th century encouraged the idea that social and distributive justice pretty much came to the same thing. But 1991 was a long time ago, and these days when people agitate for social justice, or refer derisively to those who do as “social justice warriors,” they’re likely to be talking at least as much about the distribution of rights and dignity as they are to be talking about the distribution of material resources and economic opportunities. That’s a healthy development. Social justice is about a lot more than dividing up the surplus from the totality of society’s manifold, interlocking cooperative schemes. Social justice is also about (but not exhausted by) the way we need to treat people in order to get cooperation off the ground in the first place. How do we bring people to the table? How do we encourage them to bring their best? How do we get them to adhere to and enforce the norms that make cooperation more productive and that keep it from falling apart?

There’s not a single answer to that, but here are some good ones. Treat people as though their lives matter. Treat them as equals. Treat them with respect. Honor their rights.

You know what’s nuts? What’s nuts is that nobody kicks off a discussion of justice, distributive or social, with the fact of the Great Enrichment. Because the upshot of our best accounts of the most important thing that has ever happened to the human race seems to be that equalizing the distribution of rights and liberties, powers and prerogatives, respect and esteem led to an increase in the scope and productivity of cooperation, generating hugely enriching surpluses.

And these gains spurred further demands for and advances in inclusion and dignity—that is to say advances in giving people what they’re morally due, in virtue of being people—which led in turn to broader, more intensive, more creative cooperation, producing yet more enrichment, and so on. There appears to be a very happy relationship of mutual reinforcement between what is very naturally called “social justice” and the sort of enrichment that is known to produce longer, healthier, happier, human lives.

This seems incredibly important, but we haven’t heard that much about it. Why not?

Here’s my best guess: an unintentional 20th century left-right conspiracy made it all-but-impossible for anyone to take seriously the idea that gains in social justice launched and sustained the era of modern growth, and that enrichment in turn reinforced and promoted further gains in justice, and still does.

The 20th century socialist-leaning left misdiagnosed the sources of the economic growth. The Great Enrichment was rooted in the exploitation of labor and the depredations of colonialism, while ongoing post-capitalist production was largely a matter of technology and rational state management. Poverty is toxic and the effects of widespread wealth are beneficial. But wealth in excess of potential-realizing sufficiency isn’t improving. Stable equality is improving, and brings out the best in us. Continuously rising market-led prosperity, on the other hand, encourages un-civic avidity and generates inequalities that undermine the amiable stability of egalitarian social justice.

The left-leaning 20th century literature on the distributive aspects of social justice as often as not treated wealth like manna from heaven. It’s as if the astonishing bounty of the Great Enrichment was something we’d just stumbled upon, like a cave full of naturally-occurring, neatly-stacked gold ingots in a newly-discovered cave beneath the village square. How do we divide up the gold among the villagers? Equal shares seems fair!

Or else wealth was something workers produced automatically by working only to have it stolen by the idle rich, who control the state’s goons. Or wealth was something that mechanical and social engineers could get together to produce with the right combination of workers and machines. Since it was no problem whatsoever producing more than enough for everybody (our best men are on top of it!), there was no good reason for anybody to have more than everybody else.

John Rawls’ Theory of Justice, the 20th century’s most influential text on the nature of social justice, was controversial on the left because it provided a supply-side argument against the assumption that socialist equality was the end-all-be-all of distributive justice. Rawls recognized that incentives to production have something to do with levels of consumption and argued persuasively that unequal shares are justified if they leave society’s least advantaged as well off they can be. For many socialists, admitting that justice can possibly admit of unequal shares gives away the store. Rawls sold them out.

Yet Rawls himself, like many other mid-century social democrats, had an uneasy attitude toward enrichment, and tended not to see much to admire in the human motives or legal rights that tend to produce it. Rawls was a liberal who saw society in liberal terms as a “cooperative venture for mutual advantage,” but there was in Rawls’ theory very little appreciation of the possibility that liberal rights and economic growth might need each other. Indeed, he thought that, after a certain modest level of material comfort had been achieved, a regime of fair cooperation founded on liberal rights would do better—and would still be the most desirable of all regimes—without any growth at all.

When you take a certain level of productive, surplus-generating social cooperation more or less for granted, and consider economic output to be a sort of engineering problem, the moral problems of political economy, the problems of social and distributive justice, have to do with consumption, not production. Assume a pie. Now, who should get how much of it? This consumption-side fixation led thinkers on the left to prescribe measures that would and did harm the productive institutional, cultural, and moral underpinnings of the Great Enrichment.

Now let’s flip the ideological coin. Those on the classical liberal/libertarian right, who I think more clearly grasped the causes and moral significance of the Great Enrichment—thinkers like Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek, Milton Friedman, and Ayn Rand—inclined toward indifference or outright hostility to the idea of “social justice.” They tended to see it, not entirely unreasonably, as a stalking horse for a technocratically managed economy, confiscatory levels of taxation on the wealthy, and progressive redistribution in the name of socialist material equality.

Hayek thought the liberal market order could survive only if its champions were able to articulate moral ideals as inspiring as socialism. Yet he found it inconceivable to argue for his own ideal of the liberal market order as a realization of social justice. It wasn’t that the left was wrong about what social justice requires. It was that “social justice” was pernicious gobbledygook. For Hayek and the mid-century liberal right, capitalism was a goose that lays golden eggs. “Social justice” was a euphemism for breaking its neck.

In Free-Market Fairness, John Tomasi, a political theorist at Brown, makes the case that the classical liberal and libertarian allergy to social justice, which he calls “social justicitis,” is based on a number of intellectual mistakes. I think he’s right, and will have a thing or two to say about what’s wrong and right in the attacks of Hayek and others on the very idea of social justice in a future post. In Tomasi’s forthcoming book with Matt Zwolinski, Libertarianism: A Progressive Intellectual History, they argue that 20th century libertarians became so obsessed with combating socialism that libertarianism narrowed into a sort of codified anti-socialism, fixated on defending the underpinnings of the free enterprise system against technocratic economic planning and redistributive leveling. In the process, they argue, libertarianism lost much of what had made 19th-century classical liberalism such a powerfully progressive and emancipatory force. Having hunkered down in a defensive anti-socialist posture, libertarians become unable to see, for example, that the feminist and civil rights movements were fighting for forms of freedoms earlier classical liberals had devoted their lives to. Social justictis, in my view, is a further symptom of this anti-socialist monomania. And it saddled classical liberals with a distorted and enfeebled message that forces a false choice: whatever liberty is, whatever free markets and limited government are good for, it ain’t social justice.

In McCloskey’s magisterial “bourgeois” trilogy, she shows that moral rhetoric has real, often profound political and economic consequences. I don’t think she says so, but her argument led me to suspect that it was a big intellectual and rhetorical mistake for classical liberals to concede social justice to the socialists and technocratic welfare-state liberals.

Hostility to the very idea of social and distributive justice lent weight—and continues to lend weight—to the charge that those who defend robust economic rights, regulatory restraint, and limited government are heartlessly indifferent to the welfare of the poor and working classes. Moreover, libertarian and conservative hostility to social justice creates a strong, though illogical, presumption of hostility to whatever social justice is thought to require. That’s why many advocates of economic liberty—even those who don’t believe in the absolute inviolability of property rights and the inherent injustice of redistribution—reflexively badmouth the welfare state with little regard for the possibility that the welfare state is an efficiency-enhancing institution that helps maintain popular support for relatively free markets by ensuring they more or less benefit everyone. Meanwhile, people who like social insurance, and worry about bad luck and the human costs of capitalist creative destruction—that is to say, most people—turn away in contempt or bemusement from what’s advertised to them as the politics of freedom.

More importantly, and more disastrously, rejecting the very idea of social justice, letting it harden into principle, hobbled classical liberalism’s ability to make the argument it has always been making, in less attractive terms, all along: that social justice is, first and foremost, a supply-side concept; that social justice is about the moral equality, respect, and rights that call forth cooperation and foster the creativity and cultivation of potential that generates ever larger surpluses, which, once they’ve been created, we can worry about divvying up; that social justice is a cause and effect of the Great Enrichment; that increasing social justice will make us greater and more greatly enriched.

It’s a potent and beguiling argument. It is an important argument. I’m convinced that it is, in broad strokes, a sound argument. The failure of our forebears to make it shouldn’t stop us from making it now.

Fits in nicely with the McKinsey article about free enterprise being necessary to create a surplus that can then be distributed justly.
 

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From whiskey's post (580, Conclusion):
What problems do you solve?

Once we understand that the solutions capitalism produces are what creates real prosperity in people’s lives, and that the rate at which we create solutions is true economic growth, then it becomes obvious that entrepreneurs and business leaders bear a major part of both the credit and the responsibility for creating societal prosperity. But standard measures of business’s contribution—profits, growth rates, and shareholder value—are poor proxies. Businesses contribute to society by creating and making available products and services that improve people’s lives in tangible ways, while simultaneously providing employment that enables people to afford the products and services of other businesses. It sounds basic, and it is, but our economic theories and metrics don’t frame things this way.

Today our culture celebrates money and wealth as the benchmarks of success. This has been reinforced by the prevailing theory. Suppose that instead we celebrated innovative solutions to human problems. Imagine being at a party and rather than being asked, “What do you do?”—code for how much money do you make and what status do you have—you were asked, “What problems do you solve?” Both capitalism and our society would be the better for it.

And from whiskey' post, 581, Conclusion:
More importantly, and more disastrously, rejecting the very idea of social justice, letting it harden into principle, hobbled classical liberalism’s ability to make the argument it has always been making, in less attractive terms, all along: that social justice is, first and foremost, a supply-side concept; that social justice is about the moral equality, respect, and rights that call forth cooperation and foster the creativity and cultivation of potential that generates ever larger surpluses, which, once they’ve been created, we can worry about divvying up; that social justice is a cause and effect of the Great Enrichment; that increasing social justice will make us greater and more greatly enriched.

It’s a potent and beguiling argument. It is an important argument. I’m convinced that it is, in broad strokes, a sound argument. The failure of our forebears to make it shouldn’t stop us from making it now.

America’s Shrinking Middle Class: A Close Look at Changes Within Metropolitan Areas: The middle class lost ground in nearly nine-in-ten U.S. metropolitan areas examined (Pew Research)

The American middle class is losing ground in metropolitan areas across the country, affecting communities from Boston to Seattle and from Dallas to Milwaukee. From 2000 to 2014 the share of adults living in middle-income households fell in 203 of the 229 U.S. metropolitan areas examined in a new Pew Research Center analysis of government data. The decrease in the middle-class share was often substantial, measuring 6 percentage points or more in 53 metropolitan areas, compared with a 4-point drop nationally.

The American Middle Class Is Losing Ground: No longer the majority and falling behind financially (Pew Research)

After more than four decades of serving as the nation’s economic majority, the American middle class is now matched in number by those in the economic tiers above and below it. In early 2015, 120.8 million adults were in middle-income households, compared with 121.3 million in lower- and upper-income households combined, a demographic shift that could signal a tipping point, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of government data.1
 
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Whiskeyjack

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First Things' R.R. Reno just published an article titled "Capitalism Beyond Caricature":

Earlier this week, Samuel Gregg penned a rebuttal to aspects of David Hart's essay in the June/July issue (“Mammon Ascendant”). He drew particular attention to the limitations of Hart's account of the history of finance and the Bible's condemnations of wealth.

I'll leave aside the history of finance, something about which I'm not well-informed enough to have a right to an opinion. I can say, however, that I agree with Gregg's push-back against Hart's one-dimensional reading of scriptural warnings about the dangers of wealth. A verse in 1 Timothy reads, “Money is the root of all evil.” Strong words, but I take them to be hyperbolic and intended to awaken us to the dangers of greed, rather than to provide a genealogy of evil. For the genealogy I look to Romans 1. There St. Paul identifies idolatry as the original sin, a judgment in keeping with the constant polemic of the Old Testament against false worship. The first table of the Ten Commandments is more fundamental than the second.

I agree with Gregg, moreover, that when it comes to contemporary global capitalism we need to move beyond caricatures. David Hart's essay traffics in some. But then again, so do many defenders of capitalism. The greatest-poverty-relief-program-in-history trope is a good example.

So, what would it mean to move beyond caricatures? I'm not sure. Over the last year or two I've lost confidence that I even know how to characterize the global economic system. When the Soviet Union still existed, we had a sense of alternatives: a planned economy or a free one. And we had a sense of the moral import of this choice. Planned economies around the world were characterized by coercion and the suppression of freedom, in the economic realm and in public life more broadly. The free economies were allied with democracy and with a wide range of freedoms.

That has changed. Socialism has shriveled and capitalism reigns. In consequence, the relation between the relative freedom of a capitalist economy to political freedom seems more opaque. China provides a signal example.

Even in the democratic West, the relation between economic freedom and our culture of freedom is less happy now. As Hart points out, late-modern capitalism whips up consumer desires. As a result, the meaning of freedom seems to be changing. Freedom today means freedom from anybody judging my desires. This “freedom” underwrites the paradoxical tyranny of political correctness. It's telling that in the last few years, the most dynamic engines of the postmodern free economy, technology companies, have put their muscle behind political correctness, using their market power to stomp on anyone who dissents from the sexual revolution.

Put more simply, the countries with the freest economies aren't doing much to promote cultures of freedom. In the United States, Catholic adoption agencies aren't allowed to function in accord with Catholic norms—though pornographers have an almost unlimited freedom. Perhaps this dissonance is just happenstance, unrelated to our economic system. Perhaps it is not.

As I said, I'm not sure. But of this I'm increasingly convinced: Capitalism—or something yet to be adequately named—has largely triumphed. The problems we face today aren't those of the Cold War. Today our problems arise from the ubiquity of capitalism. The dynamism, velocity, and mobility of capitalism are destabilizing our societies. And this economic volatility seems to be married to a cultural project, one that seeks to free all personal desires from traditional modes of discipline and limitation.

Capitalism has a marvelous capacity to innovate, create wealth, and expand prosperity. But it lacks the capacity to give people stability, solidarity, and a sense of belonging. In fact, in its current form, global capitalism seems positively hostile to these fundamental human needs. That's our twenty-first-century problem, one very different from the twentieth-century ones that did so much to shape our thinking (and rhetoric) about capitalism.
 

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Charles Murray just published an article in the WSJ titled "A Guaranteed Income for Every American":

When people learn that I want to replace the welfare state with a universal basic income, or UBI, the response I almost always get goes something like this: “But people will just use it to live off the rest of us!” “People will waste their lives!” Or, as they would have put it in a bygone age, a guaranteed income will foster idleness and vice. I see it differently. I think that a UBI is our only hope to deal with a coming labor market unlike any in human history and that it represents our best hope to revitalize American civil society.

The great free-market economist Milton Friedman originated the idea of a guaranteed income just after World War II. An experiment using a bastardized version of his “negative income tax” was tried in the 1970s, with disappointing results. But as transfer payments continued to soar while the poverty rate remained stuck at more than 10% of the population, the appeal of a guaranteed income persisted: If you want to end poverty, just give people money. As of 2016, the UBI has become a live policy option. Finland is planning a pilot project for a UBI next year, and Switzerland is voting this weekend on a referendum to install a UBI.

The UBI has brought together odd bedfellows. Its advocates on the left see it as a move toward social justice; its libertarian supporters (like Friedman) see it as the least damaging way for the government to transfer wealth from some citizens to others. Either way, the UBI is an idea whose time has finally come, but it has to be done right.

First, my big caveat: A UBI will do the good things I claim only if it replaces all other transfer payments and the bureaucracies that oversee them. If the guaranteed income is an add-on to the existing system, it will be as destructive as its critics fear.

Second, the system has to be designed with certain key features. In my version, every American citizen age 21 and older would get a $13,000 annual grant deposited electronically into a bank account in monthly installments. Three thousand dollars must be used for health insurance (a complicated provision I won’t try to explain here), leaving every adult with $10,000 in disposable annual income for the rest of their lives.

People can make up to $30,000 in earned income without losing a penny of the grant. After $30,000, a graduated surtax reimburses part of the grant, which would drop to $6,500 (but no lower) when an individual reaches $60,000 of earned income. Why should people making good incomes retain any part of the UBI? Because they will be losing Social Security and Medicare, and they need to be compensated.

The UBI is to be financed by getting rid of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, Supplemental Security Income, housing subsidies, welfare for single women and every other kind of welfare and social-services program, as well as agricultural subsidies and corporate welfare. As of 2014, the annual cost of a UBI would have been about $200 billion cheaper than the current system. By 2020, it would be nearly a trillion dollars cheaper.

Finally, an acknowledgment: Yes, some people will idle away their lives under my UBI plan. But that is already a problem. As of 2015, the Current Population Survey tells us that 18% of unmarried males and 23% of unmarried women ages 25 through 54—people of prime working age—weren’t even in the labor force. Just about all of them were already living off other people’s money. The question isn’t whether a UBI will discourage work, but whether it will make the existing problem significantly worse.

I don’t think it would. Under the current system, taking a job makes you ineligible for many welfare benefits or makes them subject to extremely high marginal tax rates. Under my version of the UBI, taking a job is pure profit with no downside until you reach $30,000—at which point you’re bringing home way too much ($40,000 net) to be deterred from work by the imposition of a surtax.

Some people who would otherwise work will surely drop out of the labor force under the UBI, but others who are now on welfare or disability will enter the labor force. It is prudent to assume that net voluntary dropout from the labor force will increase, but there is no reason to think that it will be large enough to make the UBI unworkable.

Involuntary dropout from the labor force is another matter, which brings me to a key point: We are approaching a labor market in which entire trades and professions will be mere shadows of what they once were. I’m familiar with the retort: People have been worried about technology destroying jobs since the Luddites, and they have always been wrong. But the case for “this time is different” has a lot going for it.

When cars and trucks started to displace horse-drawn vehicles, it didn’t take much imagination to see that jobs for drivers would replace jobs lost for teamsters, and that car mechanics would be in demand even as jobs for stable boys vanished. It takes a better imagination than mine to come up with new blue-collar occupations that will replace more than a fraction of the jobs (now numbering 4 million) that taxi drivers and truck drivers will lose when driverless vehicles take over. Advances in 3-D printing and “contour craft” technology will put at risk the jobs of many of the 14 million people now employed in production and construction.

The list goes on, and it also includes millions of white-collar jobs formerly thought to be safe. For decades, progress in artificial intelligence lagged behind the hype. In the past few years, AI has come of age. Last spring, for example, a computer program defeated a grandmaster in the classic Asian board game of Go a decade sooner than had been expected. It wasn’t done by software written to play Go but by software that taught itself to play—a landmark advance. Future generations of college graduates should take note.

Exactly how bad is the job situation going to be? An Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development study concluded that 9% of American jobs are at risk. Two Oxford scholars estimate that as many as 47% of American jobs are at risk. Even the optimistic scenario portends a serious problem. Whatever the case, it will need to be possible, within a few decades, for a life well lived in the U.S. not to involve a job as traditionally defined. A UBI will be an essential part of the transition to that unprecedented world.

The good news is that a well-designed UBI can do much more than help us to cope with disaster. It also could provide an invaluable benefit: injecting new resources and new energy into an American civic culture that has historically been one of our greatest assets but that has deteriorated alarmingly in recent decades.

A key feature of American exceptionalism has been the propensity of Americans to create voluntary organizations for dealing with local problems. Tocqueville was just one of the early European observers who marveled at this phenomenon in the 19th and early 20th centuries. By the time the New Deal began, American associations for providing mutual assistance and aiding the poor involved broad networks, engaging people from the top to the bottom of society, spontaneously formed by ordinary citizens.

These groups provided sophisticated and effective social services and social insurance of every sort, not just in rural towns or small cities but also in the largest and most impersonal of megalopolises. To get a sense of how extensive these networks were, consider this: When one small Midwestern state, Iowa, mounted a food-conservation program during World War I, it engaged the participation of 2,873 church congregations and 9,630 chapters of 31 different secular fraternal associations.

Did these networks successfully deal with all the human needs of their day? No. But that isn’t the right question. In that era, the U.S. had just a fraction of today’s national wealth. The correct question is: What if the same level of activity went into civil society’s efforts to deal with today’s needs—and financed with today’s wealth?

The advent of the New Deal and then of President Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society displaced many of the most ambitious voluntary efforts to deal with the needs of the poor. It was a predictable response. Why continue to contribute to a private program to feed the hungry when the government is spending billions of dollars on food stamps and nutrition programs? Why continue the mutual insurance program of your fraternal organization once Social Security is installed? Voluntary organizations continued to thrive, but most of them turned to needs less subject to crowding out by the federal government.

This was a bad trade, in my view. Government agencies are the worst of all mechanisms for dealing with human needs. They are necessarily bound by rules applied uniformly to people who have the same problems on paper but who will respond differently to different forms of help. Whether religious or secular, nongovernmental organization are inherently better able to tailor their services to local conditions and individual cases.

Under my UBI plan, the entire bureaucratic apparatus of government social workers would disappear, but Americans would still possess their historic sympathy and social concern. And the wealth in private hands would be greater than ever before. It is no pipe dream to imagine the restoration, on an unprecedented scale, of a great American tradition of voluntary efforts to meet human needs. It is how Americans, left to themselves, have always responded. Figuratively, and perhaps literally, it is in our DNA.

Regardless of what voluntary agencies do (or fail to do), nobody will starve in the streets. Everybody will know that, even if they can’t find any job at all, they can live a decent existence if they are cooperative enough to pool their grants with one or two other people. The social isolates who don’t cooperate will also be getting their own monthly deposit of $833.

Some people will still behave irresponsibly and be in need before that deposit arrives, but the UBI will radically change the social framework within which they seek help: Everybody will know that everybody else has an income stream. It will be possible to say to the irresponsible what can’t be said now: “We won’t let you starve before you get your next deposit, but it’s time for you to get your act together. Don’t try to tell us you’re helpless, because we know you aren’t.”

The known presence of an income stream would transform a wide range of social and personal interactions. The unemployed guy living with his girlfriend will be told that he has to start paying part of the rent or move out, changing the dynamics of their relationship for the better. The guy who does have a low-income job can think about marriage differently if his new family’s income will be at least $35,000 a year instead of just his own earned $15,000.

Or consider the unemployed young man who fathers a child. Today, society is unable to make him shoulder responsibility. Under a UBI, a judge could order part of his monthly grant to be extracted for child support before he ever sees it. The lesson wouldn’t be lost on his male friends.

Or consider teenage girls from poor neighborhoods who have friends turning 21. They watch—and learn—as some of their older friends use their new monthly income to rent their own apartments, buy nice clothes or pay for tuition, while others have to use the money to pay for diapers and baby food, still living with their mothers because they need help with day care.

These are just a few possible scenarios, but multiply the effects of such interactions by the millions of times they would occur throughout the nation every day. The availability of a guaranteed income wouldn’t relieve individuals of responsibility for the consequences of their actions. It would instead, paradoxically, impose responsibilities that didn’t exist before, which would be a good thing.

Emphasizing the ways in which a UBI would encourage people to make better life choices still doesn’t do justice to its wider likely benefits. A powerful critique of the current system is that the most disadvantaged people in America have no reason to think that they can be anything else. They are poorly educated, without job skills, and live in neighborhoods where prospects are bleak. Their quest for dignity and self-respect often takes the form of trying to beat the system.

The more fortunate members of society may see such people as obstinately refusing to take advantage of the opportunities that exist. But when seen from the perspective of the man who has never held a job or the woman who wants a stable family life, those opportunities look fraudulent.

My version of a UBI would do nothing to stage-manage their lives. In place of little bundles of benefits to be used as a bureaucracy specifies, they would get $10,000 a year to use as they wish. It wouldn’t be charity—every citizen who has turned 21 gets the same thing, deposited monthly into that most respectable of possessions, a bank account.

A UBI would present the most disadvantaged among us with an open road to the middle class if they put their minds to it. It would say to people who have never had reason to believe it before: “Your future is in your hands.” And that would be the truth.
 

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Policy Basics: Top Ten Facts about Social Security (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities)

Among these facts are:
-- The United States ranks 31st among 34 developed countries in the percentage of a median worker’s earnings that the public-pension system replaces.

-- Social Security lifted 1.2 million children out of poverty in 2013.

-- Without S.S., 40% of Americans over 65 would fall into the poverty category. For 36% of them, S.S. provides 90% of their income.

-- Minorities are particularly impacted. 44 percent of Asian Americans, 46 percent of African Americans, and 53 percent of Hispanics, compared with 35 percent of whites rely on SS for 90% of their income.

-- Women constitute 56 percent of Social Security beneficiaries aged 62 and older and 66 percent of beneficiaries aged 85 and older. In addition, women make up 97 percent of Social Security survivor beneficiaries.

-- After 2034, even if policymakers took no further action, Social Security could still pay three-fourths of scheduled benefits, relying on Social Security taxes as they are collected.

-- The long-term gap between Social Security’s projected income and promised benefits is estimated at just under 1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) over the next 75 years (and 1.6 percent of GDP in the 75th year). A mix of tax increases and modest benefit reductions — carefully crafted to shield the neediest recipients and give ample notice to all participants — could put the program on a sound financial footing indefinitely.
 
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Swiss voters have overwhelmingly rejected a proposal to give the entire population of the country enough money to live on, according to exit polls.

A projection provided to the public broadcaster RTS said 78% had voted against all Swiss citizens, along with foreigners who have been residents in Switzerland for at least five years, being given a universal basic income, or UBI.

Supporters said providing such an income would help fight poverty and inequality in a world where good jobs with steady salaries are becoming harder to find.


Swiss voters reject nationalist plan to expel foreigners for minor crimes
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The result comes as no surprise, however opinion polls ahead of the vote had indicated more than 70% of Swiss voters opposed the measure. The Swiss government and nearly all the country’s political parties had urged voters to reject the initiative.

Critics have called the initiative “a Marxist dream”, warning of sky-high costs and people quitting their jobs in droves, to the detriment of the economy. “If you pay people to do nothing, they will do nothing,” said Charles Wyplosz, economics professor at the Geneva Graduate Institute.

Proponents reject that suggestion, arguing that people naturally want to be productive, and a basic income would simply provide them with more flexibility to choose the activities they find most valuable.


Swiss to vote in referendum on world's highest minimum wage
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Ralph Kundig, one of the lead campaigners, said ahead of the vote: “For centuries this has been considered a utopia, but today it has not only become possible, but indispensible.”

Kundig conceded there was little chance of the initiative passing, but said that “just getting a broad public debate started on this important issue is a victory”.

The amount to be paid was not determined, but the non-political group behind the initiative had suggested paying CHF2,500 (£1,765) a month to each adult, and CHF625 (£445) for each child.

Authorities have estimated an additional CHF25bn (£17.6bn) would be needed annually to cover the costs, requiring deep spending cuts or significant tax increases.

The Swiss said no to UBI. I am going to read up on the details, but the bolded part is what is interesting. Obviously contradicts what Murray had in his article.

Swiss voters reject proposal to give basic income to every adult and child | World news | The Guardian
 

Whiskeyjack

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The Swiss said no to UBI. I am going to read up on the details, but the bolded part is what is interesting. Obviously contradicts what Murray had in his article.

Swiss voters reject proposal to give basic income to every adult and child | World news | The Guardian

Big difference between Murray's UBI and the one the Swiss just voted down:

The basic income would have meant big tax hikes, even if some social spending were cut. This was not a “replace the welfare state with a government check” kind of basic income. It was additive.
 

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<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/089xOB9bbhU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

GoIrish41 might find this interesting. Talks a lot about getting money out of politics.
 

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GoIrish41 might find this interesting. Talks a lot about getting money out of politics.

Where do you find time to watch these hour+ long videos? Is there a specific segment that summarizes the point?
 

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Where do you find time to watch these hour+ long videos? Is there a specific segment that summarizes the point?
I don't really watch them, I listen to them in the background like a podcast while I work. Also I have three monitors. I find that I can stay much more productive that way than if I were reading articles.

32:35 explores the critique that people acting in their own self interest would lead to exploitation and anarchy

46:25 begins the discussion on how smaller government is the key to less cronyism, using examples of Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Wall Street
 
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32:35 explores the critique that people acting in their own self interest would lead to exploitation and anarchy

Very interesting argument for Brook to make-- that every individual, if left to his own devices, will ultimately adopt bourgeois morality out of naked self-interest. I assume he'd also attribute the breakdown of social cohesion to the fact that government has crowded out the intermediate institutions that Americans used to rely on for building community. The problem there is that's not remotely Randian. The bourgeois morality that Brook describes is a bastardized form of Christian ethics, and Rand despised Christianity because it supposedly hindered social darwinism by restraining the "Great Men" and propping up the weak and unfit.

46:25 begins the discussion on how smaller government is the key to less cronyism, using examples of Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Wall Street

This touches on the issues we debated in the Theology thread. Libertarians argue from a position of strength when they note that classical economic principles were revolutionary and generated historically unprecedented amounts of wealth and innovation during the late 19th and early 20th century. But they invariably misattribute the reasons for its success (negative liberty made us rich!) and apply that "insight" to everything else (negative liberty is the only good secured by a just government!).

The industrial revolution generated a lot of social upheaval and human misery. The welfare state, for all its failings, was designed to address those problems, and it has largely succeeded, by drastically reducing poverty and material deprivation. The libertarian knee-jerk reaction of "big government is the problem!" is no less reductionist and harmful than the Progressive knee-jerk reaction of "big business is the problem!"

In my view, the most desirable political-economy we're likely to get in America is one that: (1)recognizes and appreciates the amazing wealth and innovation engine of classical economics; (2) while also seeking to alleviate the extreme inequality it generates through a minimally paternalistic welfare program, like the UBI described by Charles Murray above.
 
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Conor Sen just published an article on WaPo's WonkBlog titled "The biggest business story of the next five years":

Putting it all together:

  • The economic shortfall in the U.S. right now is mostly on the housing side. Because of how important housing is to the U.S. economy, this is why 4.7 percent headline unemployment doesn’t feel like full employment.
  • Construction employment as a share of total employment is likely going to rise at least another 0.4% to get to a level of 5% in this cycle.
  • At the current level of employment, this means we need another 550,000-to-600,000 construction workers.
  • Construction unemployment is already near record lows.
  • Demographic trends in the U.S. – an aging workforce, a workforce that’s growing more educated, the changing mix of immigration toward Asian knowledge workers rather than Hispanic blue collar workers (29 percent of construction workers are Hispanic) – all act as headwinds toward finding more construction workers.
  • From a labor slack standpoint, the pool of potential construction workers is probably well-represented by unemployed men under the age of 55. To get back to late 1990s levels of male unemployment, we would need essentially every single male unemployed worker who finds a job in the coming years to go into construction. This doesn’t take into account skill, desire, education level, geography, etc.
If we had to find 500,000 construction workers tomorrow, from a math standpoint it would be impossible. The slack isn’t there. But this isn’t the way things work in the real world. Time and market forces allow for adjustments. So here’s what that means:

  • Over time, as construction employers become more aggressive, they will bid away workers from similar fields — agriculture, oil and mining extraction, manufacturing. New entrants to goods-producing fields will be drawn overwhelming to construction, so as workers quit or retire from agriculture/oil/manufacturing-related industries it will create increasing scarcities in those industries.
  • Goods-producing/blue collar workers will increasingly bleed from the Midwest/Northeast to the faster-growing Southeast and West Coast, where increasing numbers of construction jobs will be. This will put more and more of a strain on Midwest/Northeast goods-producing firms.
  • With construction-friendly immigration flows not being what they were, the globalization solution will be to move ever more numbers of agricultural/manufacturing activity overseas to free up their domestic workers for construction. Neither California farm owners nor Midwest voters and governments will be happy about this.
  • Construction wages/costs going up will mean higher housing/real estate costs for households and firms, leaving less of a spending pie available for the rest of the economy. If you’re spending an extra 3 percent of your pay on housing, that’s taking business from a grocery store or a movie theater or Amazon.
  • Capital will flow increasingly toward the housing sector, starving other sectors of capital. If construction can’t achieve productivity gains, then labor shortages in other sectors (agriculture, manufacturing, entry level services/fast food) will mean more and more incentives to automate labor-intensive tasks to free up those workers to work in construction.
“Software eating the world” implied that digital upstarts were going to create low cost solutions to take demand away from older, high cost analog firms. Amazon eating big box stores, Facebook eating print and TV. Demand was going to shift. “Housing eating the U.S. economy” implies that housing is going to steal your inputs. They’re coming for your workers and capital on the supply side. It’s a different dynamic but a similar outcome — housing is poised to reassert itself as the main driver of the U.S. economy.
 

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Very interesting argument for Brook to make-- that every individual, if left to his own devices, will ultimately adopt bourgeois morality out of naked self-interest. I assume he'd also attribute the breakdown of social cohesion to the fact that government has crowded out the intermediate institutions that Americans used to rely on for building community. The problem there is that's not remotely Randian. The bourgeois morality that Brook describes is a bastardized form of Christian ethics, and Rand despised Christianity because it supposedly hindered social darwinism by restraining the "Great Men" and propping up the weak and unfit.
That's the beauty of the philosophy. You don't need Christianity to arrive at Christian ethics. Reason and rationality alone get you pretty damn close. You've talked many times about how diverse our country is, and I believe that we need a political and legal system that works for atheists as well as Christians, Muslims, and Jews. Rational self-interest (not naked self-interest) brings you to many of the same legal and ethical conclusions as Christianity. Moreover, it doesn't prohibit one from subjecting oneself to the more stringent and nuanced tenets of any particular faith, so long as that association is not coerced by force of law.

You know more about Randian philosophy than I do, so if this position is incongruous with hers, so be it.

This touches on the issues we debated in the Theology thread. Libertarians argue from a position of strength when they note that classical economic principles were revolutionary and generated historically unprecedented amounts of wealth and innovation during the late 19th and early 20th century. But they invariably misattribute the reasons for its success (negative liberty made us rich!) and apply that "insight" to everything else (negative liberty is the only good secured by a just government!).

The industrial revolution generated a lot of social upheaval and human misery. The welfare state, for all its failings, was designed to address those problems, and it has largely succeeded, by drastically reducing poverty and material deprivation. The libertarian knee-jerk reaction of "big government is the problem!" is no less reductionist and harmful than the Progressive knee-jerk reaction of "big business is the problem!"
The welfare state hasn't brought anyone out of poverty, considering that anyone relying on the welfare state is, by definition, impoverished. As trite as it may be, Benjamin Franklin was correct:

I am for doing good to the poor, but...I think the best way of doing good to the poor, is not making them easy in poverty, but leading or driving them out of it. I observed...that the more public provisions were made for the poor, the less they provided for themselves, and of course became poorer. And, on the contrary, the less was done for them, the more they did for themselves, and became richer.

This is an observable and objectively true condition. Case-in-point, fatherless rates in inner cities.

In my view, the most desirable political-economy we're likely to get in America is one that: (1)recognizes and appreciates the amazing wealth and innovation engine of classical economics; (2) while also seeking to alleviate the extreme inequality it generates through a minimally paternalistic welfare program, like the UBI described by Charles Murray above.
What's wrong with inequality? Consider a room with ten people:

Room 1 - Eight men who earn $25,000 per year. Two men who earn $50,000 per year.

Room 2 - Eight men who earn $35,000 per year. Two men who earn $1 million per year.

Assuming those are real incomes (and thus accurately reflect purchasing power and economic standard of living), I can't see how any rational person could argue that Room 1 is superior. Room 2, though vastly more "unequal", features every member of the population better off than they would have been in Room 1.*

*Before GoIrish41 comes in an scolds me, I am not arguing that these rooms are a perfect analogy for free markets. I'm simply arguing that inequality in and of itself is not a valid justification for government intervention.

Conor Sen just published an article on WaPo's WonkBlog titled "The biggest business story of the next five years":
I'm in an MBA course right now that's nominally called "Advanced IT Management" but one of our primary topics of conversation has been what to do with displaced workers. I don't hate UBI as much as I used to but I'm still of the opinion that this is a lot of fear mongering. We transitioned from an agricultural society to a manufacturing society and everyone is still around to talk about it, so I don't see why the transition from a manufacturing society to an information society will be as catastrophic as the futurists like to indicate. Moore's law has reached it's upper bound due to fundamental laws of physics that can't be overcome, so if anything, technological progress will be leveling out in the coming years.
 

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That's the beauty of the philosophy. You don't need Christianity to arrive at Christian ethics. Reason and rationality alone get you pretty damn close.

That's not "beauty"; it's magical thinking, and the trends for abortion, euthanasia, no-fault divorce, illegitimacy, and general social dissociation directly contradict it. Also makes one wonder why Christian ethics are desirable if Christianity isn't true.

You've talked many times about how diverse our country is, and I believe that we need a political and legal system that works for atheists as well as Christians, Muslims, and Jews.

Where have I ever argued for theocracy? I think the separation of Church and State is a great thing. But there's no such thing as a "view from nowhere". Politics is only possible within a shared moral framework, and to the extent we still have one, it's distinctly Christian.

Rational self-interest (not naked self-interest) brings you to many of the same legal and ethical conclusions as Christianity. Moreover, it doesn't prohibit one from subjecting oneself to the more stringent and nuanced tenets of any particular faith, so long as that association is not coerced by force of law.

This is idiotic, wizards. Is it in one's rational self-interest to have children? Based on the cost and life-style sacrifices involved, certainly not. And an increasingly large share of Westerners are coming to that realization, which is partly why birth rates have plummeted and we're all graying toward civilizational collapse. Society is only made possible by selflessness and sacrifice; any philosophy touting the benefits of "selfishness" will eventually destroy the society that adopts it.

You know more about Randian philosophy than I do, so if this position is incongruous with hers, so be it.

I give Brook credit for at least addressing the cultural question, and for recognizing that morality must be taught. But it's a huge stretch to claim that "rational self-interest" has anything to do with that, and pure sophistry to connect that with Rand's work.

The welfare state hasn't brought anyone out of poverty, considering that anyone relying on the welfare state is, by definition, impoverished.

That's quite obviously not true.

What's wrong with inequality?

Extreme inequality, which is a symptom of social dissociation, has historically resulted in violent revolution.

We transitioned from an agricultural society to a manufacturing society and everyone is still around to talk about it, so I don't see why the transition from a manufacturing society to an information society will be as catastrophic as the futurists like to indicate.

From the Murray article linked above:

We are approaching a labor market in which entire trades and professions will be mere shadows of what they once were. I’m familiar with the retort: People have been worried about technology destroying jobs since the Luddites, and they have always been wrong. But the case for “this time is different” has a lot going for it.

When cars and trucks started to displace horse-drawn vehicles, it didn’t take much imagination to see that jobs for drivers would replace jobs lost for teamsters, and that car mechanics would be in demand even as jobs for stable boys vanished. It takes a better imagination than mine to come up with new blue-collar occupations that will replace more than a fraction of the jobs (now numbering 4 million) that taxi drivers and truck drivers will lose when driverless vehicles take over. Advances in 3-D printing and “contour craft” technology will put at risk the jobs of many of the 14 million people now employed in production and construction.

The list goes on, and it also includes millions of white-collar jobs formerly thought to be safe. For decades, progress in artificial intelligence lagged behind the hype. In the past few years, AI has come of age. Last spring, for example, a computer program defeated a grandmaster in the classic Asian board game of Go a decade sooner than had been expected. It wasn’t done by software written to play Go but by software that taught itself to play—a landmark advance. Future generations of college graduates should take note.

Exactly how bad is the job situation going to be? An Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development study concluded that 9% of American jobs are at risk. Two Oxford scholars estimate that as many as 47% of American jobs are at risk. Even the optimistic scenario portends a serious problem. Whatever the case, it will need to be possible, within a few decades, for a life well lived in the U.S. not to involve a job as traditionally defined. A UBI will be an essential part of the transition to that unprecedented world.
 

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That's not "beauty"; it's magical thinking, and the trends for abortion, euthanasia, no-fault divorce, illegitimacy, and general social dissociation directly contradict it. Also makes one wonder why Christian ethics are desirable if Christianity isn't true.
Christianity is true, but you don't need Christianity to arrive at Christian ethics. Murder was evil and divorce discouraged long before a star rose in Bethlehem. You and I reach our moral and ethical conclusions based on Christianity, but an objectivist can reach many of those same conclusions, albeit with different flavoring around the fringes.

As to your specific examples, abortion and euthanasia are murder. I can arrive at that conclusion through reason and intellect without reference the Bible if necessary. No-fault divorce and illegitimacy are legitimate ethical concerns, but I don't think either one warrants state intervention.

You also see to have a bit of is-ought fallacy going on here. I said people should act in their rational self-interest, not that people do. Many of the negative consequences we see in society are people acting selfishly (based on short-term gratification) and contrary to their long-term well-being.

This is idiotic, wizards. Is it in one's rational self-interest to have children? Based on the cost and life-style sacrifices involved, certainly not. And an increasingly large share of Westerners are coming to that realization, which is partly why birth rates have plummeted and we're all graying toward civilizational collapse. Society is only made possible by selflessness and sacrifice; any philosophy touting the benefits of "selfishness" will eventually destroy the society that adopts it.
You're falling into the anti-libertarian trap of using economic well-being as a proxy for well-being generally, and that couldn't be further from the truth. There's a 19-month old shit machine stomping around behind me while her mother gives me dirty looks to get off of the computer, and I wouldn't trade it for the world. The "rational" in "rational self-interest" does not mean that you should only act to increase your economic well-being, it simply means that we should consider the long-term consequences of our actions and not just the immediate benefits of acting selfishly.

All that to say, I'm happier (albeit poorer) with a wife and a daughter than I would be without them. So yes, having a family was in my self-interest. Self-interest is not a matter of wealth maximization, it's a matter of quality of life maximization. That's why the model can be successful in both economic and moral contexts. The telos of the firm is different than the telos of the individual, so firms can pursue wealth maximization while individuals pursue more holistic well-being and those things are not incongruous with one another in the broader context of self-interest.
 
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SIAP. I'm still not fully on board, but Whiskey has talked about this in the past.

In_our_hands_may23.jpg
 

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Hypothesis: Every downturn in the economy is preceded by policy changes that inordinately favor the top 1%.
 

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UBI has its attractions, but I would want to test how effective it would be on a smaller population to begin with. Initially, we might initiate UBI on one of the most socialist aspects of federal government - military health care. A huge bureaucracy that is inefficient, a drain on the economy to which Congress appropriates Billions a year, where drug prices are negotiated, and benefits extend for lifetimes.

We need to privatize their facilities, provide them with competitive health plans to choose from and provide a UBI. Vets could receive a one time bonus for their service, select from any number of plans including high-deductibles, for instance, provided a UBI and be able to access health care at any hospital or doctor's office. Selling the VA's facilities would bring revenue to the federal government as well as freeing us from the bureaucracy that some many vets complain about, making health care more efficient for them. Veterans would also be able to use their UBI for any specialized needs that resulted from their service -mental or physical. This would stimulate economic growth in the private health care industries. Vets, as the test population, would benefit by not having deductions for Medicare and Social Security. Taxpayers would save money on the pensions and other benefits provided. In these ways, we would get out of the business of socialized medicine, privatize a government function, eliminate federal bureaucracy while providing a health care workforce to be managed more efficiently by private industry, and be able to test UBIs by on a sub-population with the similar factors as the overall population. We could also see if this resulted in an increased contribution to the workforce and a more productive society.

From the article in Post 584:
The UBI is to be financed by getting rid of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, Supplemental Security Income, housing subsidies, welfare for single women and every other kind of welfare and social-services program, as well as agricultural subsidies and corporate welfare. As of 2014, the annual cost of a UBI would have been about $200 billion cheaper than the current system. By 2020, it would be nearly a trillion dollars cheaper.
 
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Harvard Gazette: Middle-class income doesn't buy middle-class lifestyle

This is thirteen years old and from Elizabeth Warren of all people, but it offers some fantastic insight into the negative systematic impact that the normalization of the dual income household has had on society. Wooly and I were joking in another thread that wimminz in the workplace were a conspiracy by the Chamber of Commerce to depress wages, but that doesn't seem so crazy when you keep this research in mind.

Another article on the same topic:

The Two-Income Trap | Mother Jones
 

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Harvard Gazette: Middle-class income doesn't buy middle-class lifestyle

This is thirteen years old and from Elizabeth Warren of all people, but it offers some fantastic insight into the negative systematic impact that the normalization of the dual income household has had on society. Wooly and I were joking in another thread that wimminz in the workplace were a conspiracy by the Chamber of Commerce to depress wages, but that doesn't seem so crazy when you keep this research in mind.

Another article on the same topic:

The Two-Income Trap | Mother Jones

Interesting articles, wiz, especially since they are from 2003 and 2004, warning of the impacts on the two income middle class. Of course, health care costs, the recession, upside down mortgages, increasing student loan debt, dependency on the stock market for retirement, job insecurity with layoffs or less benefits,, etc. Anything more recent you might share? Anything in post 582 or 585 that you see as applicable?

This is a small contribution, I hope, though not specific to two income families.
The Average American's Saving Habits -- 9 Scary Statistics

According to a Federal Reserve report (2014), nearly half of Americans couldn't cover a $400 emergency expense without borrowing the money or selling something. More than half of households have less than one month's worth of income in a readily available savings account, far from the six-month emergency fund many experts recommend.

Even more alarming is that many people have no savings at all. In fact, almost 30% report having a zero balance, and 62% have less than $1,000 in savings, according to a survey by GOBankingRates.com. An additional 21% report having no savings account whatsoever.

I know someone who used to be head of HR for a large corporation (single person) who said that she was proud when she could report to corporate heads that she could cut $500,000 from their bottom line through layoffs. She does not feel that way anymore and does not do that in the small business she started.

Portrait of Financial Security (Pew, 2016) interactive to adjust for different groups)

The Precarious State of Family Balance Sheets (Pew, 2015)
 
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