Does 1 Loss End ND's Playoff Hopes?

[IRISH in MT]

*Playoff Rankings as of 10/28/2014.

1) Miss State 7-0: @ #4 Bama (11/15), @ #3 Ole Miss (11/29), SEC Chipper
2) Florida State 7-0: @ Miami (11/15 rivals), ACC Chipper
3) Auburn 6-1: @ #9 Georgia (11/15), @ #4 Bama (11/29), SEC Chipper
***#4 Ole Miss is 7-2 after losing to Auburn
5) Oregon 7-1: @ #19 Utah (11/8), PAC 12 Chipper
6) Bama 7-1: @ #23 LSU (11/8), #1 Miss St (11/15), #6 Auburn (11/29), SEC Chipper
7) TCU 6-1: #11 K State (11/8), @ Texas (11/27)
8) Michigan State 7-1: #12 Ohio State (11/8), Big 10 Chipper
9) K State 6-1: @ #10 TCU (11/8), @ #13 Baylor (12/6)
10) Notre Dame 6-1: @ #14 Arizona State (11/8), Louisville (11/22), @ #21 U$C (11/29)
***#11 Georgia is now 6-2 after losing to Florida
***#12 Arizona is now 6-2 after losing to UCLA
13) Baylor 6-1: @ #18 Oklahoma (11/8), OK State (11/22), #11 K State (12/6)
14) Arizona State 6-1: #8 ND (11/8), @ #15 Arizona (11/28), PAC 12 Chipper
15) Nebraska 7-1: @ Wisconsin (11/15), #24 Minnesota (11/22), Big 10 Chipper
16) Ohio State 6-1: @ Michigan State (11/8), Big 10 Chipper
***#17 Utah is now 6-2 after losing to ASU
***#23 East Carolina is now 6-2 after losing to Temple
24) Duke 6-1: @ Syracuse (11/8), Virginia Tech (11/15), UNC (11/20), ACC

***Marshall -0: Western Kentucky (11/28)

 

[Rack Em]

No but a loss does end our hopes of going undefeated.

 

[woolybug25]

There is already a thread(s) for this.

 

[tussin]

I'd include Louisville in our big games list. Pretty big let down potential there against a good team.

 

[Irishnuke]

No but a loss does end our hopes of going undefeated.

You state your opinion like its a fact.

 

[ickythump1225]

I'd say so yes. I mean anything could happen but we won't have a conference title to resume boost the last week of the season and get us to 12 wins.

 

[Rack Em]

You state your opinion like its a fact.

I learned from NDSean.

 

[ACamp1900]

No.

 

[Jerry]

We would need our opponents to step up a little. Like USC can't lose anymore and it would be nice if Northwestern beat Nebraska so they look better on the resume. I think it will be tough though. ND has been ranked at the bottom of the unbeaten teams so a loss might drop us to 14 or 15 no matter how close. Wouldn't be a surprise.

 

[koonja]

Only 1 loss to FSU by 10 points or less with Winston playing, and ND's in the playoffs.

I'll take bets on that.

 

[Irish YJ]

Not with 1 loss. Too many other things would need to happen.

Make it a poll...

 

[irishfan]

This is assuming we lose to FSU:

It doesn't eliminate us, but we're going to have to get lucky to make it. Even if we lose a very tight game, it will still be rough.

1) We would need FSU to win out, thus FSU is getting 1 playoff spot. Makes our loss look stronger, but takes up a playoff spot. If FSU beats us and loses to someone else, we're all but eliminated.
2) The SEC Champ seems guaranteed a spot. Hell, two 1-loss SEC teams could make it. We would need more carnage in the SEC West, can't have two 11-1 teams. We NEED just 1 SEC team making it.

Now, we're down to just 2 spots remaining. The only threat of beating out an 11-1 ND from the PAC-12 is a 12-1 Oregon while the only threat from B1G is a 12-1 MSU/OSU (these two play so only one team can finish that high). I think we'd get in over an 11-1 Baylor/TCU, but I think a 11-1 OU would edge us out.

 

[IRISH in MT]

This is assuming we lose to FSU:

It doesn't eliminate us, but we're going to have to get lucky to make it. Even if we lose a very tight game, it will still be rough.

1) We would need FSU to win out, thus FSU is getting 1 playoff spot. Makes our loss look stronger, but takes up a playoff spot. If FSU beats us and loses to someone else, we're all but eliminated.
2) The SEC Champ seems guaranteed a spot. Hell, two 1-loss SEC teams could make it. We would need more carnage in the SEC West, can't have two 11-1 teams. We NEED just 1 SEC team making it.

Now, we're down to just 2 spots remaining. The only threat of beating out an 11-1 ND from the PAC-12 is a 12-1 Oregon while the only threat from B1G is a 12-1 MSU/OSU (these two play so only one team can finish that high). I think we'd get in over an 11-1 Baylor/TCU, but I think a 11-1 OU would edge us out.

Nice scenario breakdown! A few things I hadn't thought about. There is plenty of opportunity in the SEC West for the rep in the Chipper to have 2 losses. IF they win, would a 2 loss SEC Champ deserve a spot? I don't see Oregon losing again. I agree on losing out to 1 loss OU. I don't think it is fair but, we had so much favortism during the BCS era where I don't think we will get favored by the Playoff Com.

 

[IRISH in MT]

Only 1 loss to FSU by 10 points or less with Winston playing, and ND's in the playoffs.

I'll take bets on that.

I was thinking last minute FG loss but I like your optimism!

 

[phork]

Loss eliminates us because we dont have a conference championship to crawl back up and all the talking heads feel like the FSU game validates or invalidates us. Sadly the playoff committee will do the same thing.

If you guys are are expecting miracles to happen from the playoff committee, let me just curb your enthusiasm now. The SEC is going to ride its way to 2 teams in the playoff, expect it.

We will however go to a nice bowl game as a springboard to a run next year.

 

[greyhammer90]

If we beat FSU I think it's possible we get in with one loss. Because then we would have a victory over the ACC champion. If the Pac 12 champion is either Stanford, ASU, or USC I think we get in. We'd have victories over 2 major conference champions.

If we lose to FSU I don't think we have a chance.

 

[woolybug25]

If we beat FSU I think it's possible we get in with one loss. Because then we would have a victory over the ACC champion. If the Pac 12 champion is either Stanford, ASU, or USC I think we get in. We'd have victories over 2 major conference champions.

If we lose to FSU I don't think we have a chance.

Let me hypothetical onya for a moment...

Say we lose close to FSU, beat the Pac 12 champion, the Pac 12 runner up, and there are no undefeated teams. Do you think that both a 2 loss Pac12 champ (who we beat) and a BIG team with at least one loss would pass a 1 loss Notre Dame team whose only loss is to the #1 team in the country (assuming FSU is there)?

 

[greyhammer90]

Let me hypothetical onya for a moment...

Say we lose close to FSU, beat the Pac 12 champion, the Pac 12 runner up, and there are no undefeated teams. Do you think that both a 2 loss Pac12 champ (who we beat) and a BIG team with at least one loss would pass a 1 loss Notre Dame team whose only loss is to the #1 team in the country (assuming FSU is there)?

No but I think 2 SEC teams, FSU, and Oklahoma go above us.

 

[woolybug25]

No but I think 2 SEC teams, FSU, and Oklahoma go above us.

So in your scenario... you would have 2-3 one loss teams in front of Notre Dame then? Since Miss St still plays Bama, Ole Miss still plays Auburn, Ole Miss and Miss St play eachother and any of the above have to play the SEC championship game. This all despite (by your account) Notre Dame also only having one loss, which would be to a playoff team in FSU (and presumably the #1 team in the country). We also would have beat 3 ranked teams and possibly the PAC12 Champ.

I really don't see anybody coming out of the SEC with undefeated and I actually believe the winner of the SEC could end up having two losses (Bama for instance).

 

[ACamp1900]

I'd love to see the winner of the SEC East beat the West champ and essentially knock the whole conference out of it... A couple 1 loss champs from the Big 12 and Pac 12, ND/FSu winner and MSU winning out and it could def happen...

#letaboydream

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I'd love to see the winner of the SEC East beat the West champ and essentially knock the whole conference out of it... A couple 1 loss champs from the Big 12 and Pac 12, ND/FSu winner and MSU winning out and it could def happen...

#letaboydream

Georgia's only got one loss and they don't have a very hard road ahead of them. Their only remaining game against a ranked opponent (Auburn) is at home.

 

[ickythump1225]

Georgia's only got one loss and they don't have a very hard road ahead of them. Their only remaining game against a ranked opponent (Auburn) is at home.

Georgia's going to choke at some point this season. Bound to happen. As long as Mark Richt is there he'll Richt away a game or two.

 

[ickythump1225]

If we beat FSU I think it's possible we get in with one loss. Because then we would have a victory over the ACC champion. If the Pac 12 champion is either Stanford, ASU, or USC I think we get in. We'd have victories over 2 major conference champions.

If we lose to FSU I don't think we have a chance.

While most seem to think we'd be better off losing to FSU and winning out (in the 1 loss hypothetical) I actually tend to agree with you that it would be better to beat FSU and then lose to maybe ASU (so long as they don't shit the bed the rest of the year). We need this marquee win over FSU. Beating the defending National Champions on their home turf in the midst of a 22 game winning streak will carry a lot of weight with the voters and the committee. Losing to our best opponent and then beating ASU and USC I don't think will carry the day.

 

[phork]

SEC champ is not going to be out of the playoff.

 

[CHIDomer9]

I think the only way ND makes it in with a loss is if Florida State is far and away the best of the remaining 4. ND was banking on USC and Arizona State being really good teams and I think they both will finish with 3 losses.

 

[kmoose]

I think the only way ND makes it in with a loss is if Florida State is far and away the best of the remaining 4. ND was banking on USC and Arizona State being really good teams and I think they both will finish with 3 losses.

Since when has finishing 9-3 meant that you were not "really good"?

 

[ickythump1225]

I think the only way ND makes it in with a loss is if Florida State is far and away the best of the remaining 4. ND was banking on USC and Arizona State being really good teams and I think they both will finish with 3 losses.

I just think having the marquee win over FSU will carry more weight than losing to the one super respected opponent we have and then beating teams that are perceived to be "lesser" or not that good.

SEC champ is not going to be out of the playoff.

In a scenario where a 2 or 3 loss UGA team wins the SECCG I think the SEC champ will be left out however the committee would then likely pick best 1 loss SEC team a la 2011. The SEC, barring every team having at least 2 losses, isn't being left out but I could foresee the SEC champ being left out.

 

[IRISH in MT]

I guess I am struggling to decide which scenario I prefer...a close loss to FSU or beating FSU for a "quality win" but losing to a lesser opponent like ASU, Louisville, or U$C. In the BCS era, when you lost and who you lost to seemed important in determining who got in. If you lost late in November, it stuck more on the minds of the pollsters than losing in September and going on a winning streak to end the season. So I guess I would prefer to lose now to a Top 5 team than lay an egg in November to lower ranked/unranked team.

 

[phork]

I guess I am struggling to decide which scenario I prefer...a close loss to FSU or beating FSU for a "quality win" but losing to a lesser opponent like ASU, Louisville, or U$C. In the BCS era, when you lost and who you lost to seemed important in determining who got in. If you lost late in November, it stuck more on the minds of the pollsters than losing in September and going on a winning streak to end the season. So I guess I would prefer to lose now to a Top 5 team than lay an egg in November to lower ranked/unranked team.

You would rather lose to FSU. If FSU wins they are a lock for the playoff, the remaining schedule is pretty bad and not too worried about facing Duke again in the ACC championship.

If ND loses to anyone but FSU, ND will have almost a zero shot to make the playoff. A lot of losses have to happen in front of them.

This playoff deal and the slant to put in teams who play a conference championship game is a real threat to NDs independence. The only way ND plays 13 games is if they play Hawaii every year. All things considered a trip to Hawaii in August might not be a bad idea.

 

[ickythump1225]

You would rather lose to FSU. If FSU wins they are a lock for the playoff, the remaining schedule is pretty bad and not too worried about facing Duke again in the ACC championship.

If ND loses to anyone but FSU, ND will have almost a zero shot to make the playoff. A lot of losses have to happen in front of them.

This playoff deal and the slant to put in teams who play a conference championship game is a real threat to NDs independence. The only way ND plays 13 games is if they play Hawaii every year. All things considered a trip to Hawaii in August might not be a bad idea.

Why not play BYU every year for the 13th game? They are independent like us and Utah is a hell of a lot closer than Hawaii.

Also I think it's best to beat FSU. Like you said if FSU beats us they are almost a lock to make the playoffs, that is 1 of 4 spots gone right there. If we beat them and both end with 1 loss our case to get in over them is more compelling than if we lose to them.