Degenerate Gambling Thread

[Dale]

What am I missing with the Oregon game? That feels like a 45 point drubbing

I bet Oregon TT O40.5. Maybe Ok St O shows up, maybe it doesn’t. But pretty confident their D sucks either way. Some concern Lanning hasn’t traveled East well consistently for a early kick

 

[tirishman505]

This post is not to be viewed as judgemental or condescending, strictly informative.

As someone that doesn't sports gamble, but is generally interested in business and economics, I was curious how people generally fare when it comes to wins and losses.

Is it similar to casinos where "the house always wins" and where the experience itself is part of the fun (how long can I make the money last and enjoy myself, and maybe I'll come up ahead sometimes). Aka - does the betting itself just make other games more fun and entertaining?

Not asking for ledgers of wins and losses. I just have a couple of much younger brothers that are pretty big into it and not sure if they're always honest about their performance.

As I understand it, professional gamblers have around a 55% win rate, averaged out of course. They also shy away from parlays. I too have a younger brother who understates his likely losses. He might not even know how much he’s losing overall. But he’ll tell me every time a parlay hits.

 

[Dale]

ASU - Texas A&M not a real edge but lean over and these 3 props I can’t not bet out of principle. Not a big rec like yesterdays though:

- Reed Harris is O37.5 on Bet365, 47.5 elsewhere
- Omarion Miller is O45.5 on Bet365, 54.5 elsewhere
- Isaiah Horton is O43.5 on FD, 49.5 elsewhere

Can even just middle it if you want

Reed Harris catches in the 1Q

 

[JamIrish]

Notice odds for ND Defensive TD dropped from +480 to +220. Something I'll track

 

[NotKoon]

I had Western last week and Purdue this week. Awful beats back to back

 

[Henges24]

Notice odds for ND Defensive TD dropped from +480 to +220. Something I'll track

I took it at +500, 2 minutes before the game started.

That was fun.

Have a Burress TD waiting still at +1125

 

[DCDomer]

Ryan Garcia by TKO just salvaged the night for me after Ryan Day pissed it away

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

Went 8-7 this week. Went 2-1 on my big bets… Hit FAU and Texas ML and missed badly on Kentucky. Honing in on week 3 and should have around 10 picks ☘️

 

[RDU Irish]

Held my own on college ball no thanks to Minchey and Iowa State. Bet the ND cover pretty hard and hit some SGPs to make up for it.

NFL tho - bank building roll this week on NFL. TD parlay Henry/Taylor/Irving/Brown/Monangui +4100 (boosted 50%) only a couple bucks b/c it felt silly. Parlays are self limiting since I only bet them with promos. Bigger $$ for smaller odds on a protected Kyren/Hampton/Gibbs TD plus Price 40+ rushing was nice - missed on Taylor/Henry/Price TD parlay but turned out OK.

Price will get a lot more touches as the season progresses and due to break some bigger plays. Love got the touches and just a matter of time before he pops some big ones too. Probably go with a homer ND parlay next week of Williams/Price/Love TDs and another targeting around -200 level for their Rush+Rec lines. Likely start betting on 100+ yard game singles for Price and Love - just a matter of time and still showing strong odds on those lines thanks to both having modest results this week.

I thought I had Bucs figured out with either Godwin or Emeka going for 100+ yards. Big odds singles for both and Mayfield decided to butterfingers all day instead. I'll be back on those next week hosting Cleveland. Should be lots of TDs and yards to go around.

Seattle at AZ next week 4:25 must see ND TV! Line came in a lot making Seattle -4.5 pretty attractive IMO. AZ gets reality check by Super Bowl champs. MNF Giants at Rams should be a fun one without Miles Garrett, possible return of Donald and Rams offense bouncing back. Giants are going to be fun to watch this year - Fields got 4 targets ending with 2 rec for 25 yards, not bad for a rookie debut and worth keeping an eye on his line as I bet he gets looks cleaning up after Nabors and Likely.

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

Went 4-2 on NFL picks yesterday with Steelers, Jets, Texans, Vikings, Raiders, and Eagles. Also had some huge hits on ATD bets with Vele, Warren, Caleb, Coker (parlayed together), DJ Moore, Collins (parlayed together), Willis, Bech (parlayed together), Watson, Jefferson (parlayed together), and Goedert. All of my ATD picks come from The Touchdown Show podcast on Action Network with Sean Koerner, Gilles Gallant, and Grant Neifer- highly recommend it to everyone. They hit 11 out of their 26 ATD picks yesterday... Tonight they're on Nix ATD and Worthy ATD.

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

Early week 3 picks:

1. Houston +7.5 (and moneyline)
2. Georgia -24
3. UTEP +35.5
4. Rutgers +24
5. FIU +7 (and moneyline)
6. Texas State -3
7. Colorado State +17
8. UTSA +30

 

[Dale]

Montana - Oregon State has moved from Oregon St -9.5 to 17.5 from Sunday to current

A couple Montana potential defensive injuries but seems like just steam on Oregon St playing well against Houston and Tech. Braden Atkinson is tearing defenses apart. Might look at the total instead

Montana 115th in SP+ and power ratings that include FCS have this closer to single digit spread. Market calling BS. Montana does not schedule FBS games like NDSU and Montana State do

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

Added some more picks for week 3...

1. Houston +7.5 (and moneyline)
2. Georgia -24
3. UTEP +35.5
4. Rutgers +24
5. FIU +7 (and moneyline)
6. Texas State -3
7. Colorado State +17
8. UTSA +30
9. Old Dominion -3
10. Jacksonville State -3
11. UAB +7.5 (and moneyline)
12. Purdue +14.5

 

[WineGate]

Montana - Oregon State has moved from Oregon St -9.5 to 17.5 from Sunday to current

A couple Montana potential defensive injuries but seems like just steam on Oregon St playing well against Houston and Tech. Braden Atkinson is tearing defenses apart. Might look at the total instead

Montana 115th in SP+ and power ratings that include FCS have this closer to single digit spread. Market calling BS. Montana does not schedule FBS games like NDSU and Montana State do

The FCS teams that Montana has played are not good either. Utah Tech is one of the worst teams in the Big Sky right now and Drake is a mid-tier Pioneer League team.

 

[matman4593]

Added some more picks for week 3...

1. Houston +7.5 (and moneyline)
2. Georgia -24
3. UTEP +35.5
4. Rutgers +24
5. FIU +7 (and moneyline)
6. Texas State -3
7. Colorado State +17
8. UTSA +30
9. Old Dominion -3
10. Jacksonville State -3
11. UAB +7.5 (and moneyline)
12. Purdue +14.5

I understand picking against USC in an east coast game, but I just can't rationalize betting on RU and Dylan Lonergan's backup. And rutgers is my second team lol

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

I understand picking against USC in an east coast game, but I just can't rationalize betting on RU and Dylan Lonergan's backup. And rutgers is my second team lol

Having Rutgers as your 2nd team and calling Surace "Dylan Lonergan's backup" is the most Rutgers fan shit ever lol. And to make matters worse on your take, Lonergan might start this game. Either way, I'll take my chances.

 

[matman4593]

Curious how else you'd describe him, but you do you

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

Curious how else you'd describe him, but you do you

I might be wrong on this pick, but I might be right on the next one. You'll be an uninformed square forever.

 

[matman4593]

Whatever you say big guy

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

Whatever you say big guy

Just going off what you're showing us.

 

[notredomer23]

 

[Dale]

Having Rutgers as your 2nd team and calling Surace "Dylan Lonergan's backup" is the most Rutgers fan shit ever lol. And to make matters worse on your take, Lonergan might start this game. Either way, I'll take my chances.

I might be wrong on this pick, but I might be right on the next one. You'll be an uninformed square forever.

What is wrong with calling Surace the backup?

 

[RDU Irish]

Who GAF enough about Rutgers football to know who any of the players are let alone the back up QB?

After getting burned spitefully betting against Bama, I'm inclined to bet on USC to cover but will buy it down to -20.5 in a parlay or two. Rutgers lost to UMass FFS.

SMU/L-ville over line should probably be 80 instead of 60. I'll probably put a fiver on a juiced over like 76.5 and watch it live ready to mash more. First half over too.

Clemson might be terrible again and UNC undefeated hosting ND in two weeks would be neato. ML UNC or take the +3.

ND to cover. Carr +220 yards and +2TDs currently -160 and will add to some parlays. 250 yards and 3+ TDs is +190.

Texas -30.5 seems low.

Not in love with much this weekend outside of SMU and the Carr props. Need to find some more -200 to -300 high confidence player props to stack a monster parlay. I like NFL better than college this week.

Baseball - put some on Brewers and Dodgers to win WS. Dodgers range from +190 to +250 and Brewers +500 to +650 depending on the site. Which ever one wins the NL will be heavy favorite for WS and promos at that time will make for cheap hedges if I want to be a puss about it.

 

[Dale]

The FCS teams that Montana has played are not good either. Utah Tech is one of the worst teams in the Big Sky right now and Drake is a mid-tier Pioneer League team.

Only knowledge of Drake is they debuted those special jerseys and then got beat by West Florida without Stokes lol

I sprinkled a ML out of principle but not touching that spread and played O52.5 hopefully can get 35+ from Oregon State

 

[notredomer23]

Really like Florida Auburn Under 53.5. I also like the fighting Gerad Parkers to keep it within 28.5 against Missouri.

 

[Dale]

Oregon - USC:

GOY Oregon -5.5
Current USC -1.5

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

Who GAF enough about Rutgers football to know who any of the players are let alone the back up QB?

After getting burned spitefully betting against Bama, I'm inclined to bet on USC to cover but will buy it down to -20.5 in a parlay or two. Rutgers lost to UMass FFS.

SMU/L-ville over line should probably be 80 instead of 60. I'll probably put a fiver on a juiced over like 76.5 and watch it live ready to mash more. First half over too.

Clemson might be terrible again and UNC undefeated hosting ND in two weeks would be neato. ML UNC or take the +3.

ND to cover. Carr +220 yards and +2TDs currently -160 and will add to some parlays. 250 yards and 3+ TDs is +190.

Texas -30.5 seems low.

Not in love with much this weekend outside of SMU and the Carr props. Need to find some more -200 to -300 high confidence player props to stack a monster parlay. I like NFL better than college this week.

Baseball - put some on Brewers and Dodgers to win WS. Dodgers range from +190 to +250 and Brewers +500 to +650 depending on the site. Which ever one wins the NL will be heavy favorite for WS and promos at that time will make for cheap hedges if I want to be a puss about it.

You would think a Rutgers fan would know the name of the QB who started last week. I know his name because I bet on them and he threw 4 picks. In any event, my point was that I don't care who the QB is against USC this week and that's not why I'm betting on them. I'm fading USC because Lincoln Riley is traveling 3 time zones to the east, they're laying 24, and they're in a look ahead spot with Oregon on deck. Whether the QB is Lonergan or Surace doesn't matter one bit to me because they both suck equally.

 

[Dale]

You would think a Rutgers fan would know the name of the QB who started last week. I know his name because I bet on them

Or he knew his name and calling him Dylan Lonergan’s backup was a derogatory description because of how bad Dylan Lonergan is. I did the same thing. I know AJ Surace. You can find him deep in Krooter’s files.

 

[MeanGreenBeans]

Or he knew his name and calling him Dylan Lonergan’s backup was a derogatory description because of how bad Dylan Lonergan is. I did the same thing. I know AJ Surace. You can find him deep in Krooter’s files.

Krooter?

 

[Dale]

Krooter?