BVG Fired

[Rhode Irish]

Yup

We haven't stopped them much at all. They're built to run. Being conservative much of the game aided in putting us in the position we were in..

Vs.

Our offense has methodically marched down the field in the 4th. We have limited time and are down by 1+ scores. Aggression has worked down the stretch.

Gotta be aggressive there. Then again, if the play calls on that set of downs were better to begin with we may not even be in that position. You QB has been your best running back all day. I'm 3rd and 3, you go empty and he gets sacked.

If they hadn't lost 5 yards on third down I would agree. But in reality, 4th and 7 is a very high risk proposition, to put it mildly. It isn't like just gaining 7 yards on any other play during the game; it has a far lower chance of succeeding than just about any other play in the game, because so much of the field is off-limits before the snap. And the defense had held MSU for (I think) 4 consecutive drives and they were likely to be super conservative upon getting the ball back. The only reason why the strategy didn't work is because Cole Luke just decided not to stay anywhere near his man so O'Connor lobbed a ball to guy with nobody within 4 strides of him. If that play had been covered correctly, he likely throws it into the stands or eats it - they punt back to you and you're right where you started with a new set of downs and 20 seconds having run off the clock.

 

[Irish4Life09]

If WKU played ND this year I would bet 1,000 dollars on the Toppers

I went to WKU from 03-06, so I have been a fan of their athletics, and still follow them today. But what you said just got me laughing. Ever our terrible Irish would probably crush WKU. They barely beat my recent Alma Mater of Miami University by 7 points today,and they are one of the worst teams in the country.

 

[NDPhilly]

First time I really feel like we'll never win a national championship with BK. Got absolutely outcoached by Dantonio

 

[Sherm Sticky]

First time I really feel like we'll never win a national championship with BK. Got absolutely outcoached by Dantonio

I was going to say this is the worst lost since 2010 for Kelly. But then I remembered North Western and Louisville in 2014.

I'm very disappointed with the coaching staff for this game. Kelly is right that his is on the coaches and the coaches need to do a better job.


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[IrishLax]

If they hadn't lost 5 yards on third down I would agree. But in reality, 4th and 7 is a very high risk proposition, to put it mildly. It isn't like just gaining 7 yards on any other play during the game; it has a far lower chance of succeeding than just about any other play in the game, because so much of the field is off-limits before the snap. And the defense had held MSU for (I think) 4 consecutive drives and they were likely to be super conservative upon getting the ball back. The only reason why the strategy didn't work is because Cole Luke just decided not to stay anywhere near his man so O'Connor lobbed a ball to guy with nobody within 4 strides of him. If that play had been covered correctly, he likely throws it into the stands or eats it - they punt back to you and you're right where you started with a new set of downs and 20 seconds having run off the clock.

Mathematically speaking, your only realistic chance of winning if you punt the ball is to get a 3&out. The odds of getting a 3&out are roughly 15%-25% depending on the defense. Then you have to get the ball back, go down the field, and score a TD in 2 minutes. Let's call the odds of that 50% given how ND's offense was playing... this is an aggressive number, but probably fair considering what was going on in the game.

So punting the ball away, Kelly was basically conceding a 90% chance of defeat.

Going for it on 4th & 7 is about a 35% chance of conversion. That is about twice as good as the odds of getting a 3&out, and you have more time, all your timeouts, and better field position if you convert. Statistically, there is no justification -- absolutely none -- for punting there. The only rationale is that the coaches don't know the math or chose to ignore the math because they're stupid and/or conservative wimps.

 

[OlympiaIrishFan]

We constantly lose to good teams. BK has done a good job, but we lose more than we win against good teams. We buckle when the lights are the brightest. Are the kids prepared? Wrong players? Wrong Coaches? Too tough of academics? All of the abs e.

Stanford, Clemson, FSU, Clemson, OSU, OK, Bama, SC, MSU, etc. Yes we have beaten some, but sure looks like we lose to more good teams than we beat.

 

[GATTACA!]

Mathematically speaking, your only realistic chance of winning if you punt the ball is to get a 3&out. The odds of getting a 3&out are roughly 15%-25% depending on the defense. Then you have to get the ball back, go down the field, and score a TD in 2 minutes. Let's call the odds of that 50% given how ND's offense was playing... this is an aggressive number, but probably fair considering what was going on in the game.

So punting the ball away, Kelly was basically conceding a 90% chance of defeat.

Going for it on 4th & 7 is about a 35% chance of conversion. That is about twice as good as the odds of getting a 3&out, and you have more time, all your timeouts, and better field position if you convert. Statistically, there is no justification -- absolutely none -- for punting there. The only rationale is that the coaches don't know the math or chose to ignore the math because they're stupid and/or conservative wimps.

I'll go with option two since he showed the same type of pussy play calling all night long putting off the 2 point conversion. That's the same shit he's done how many times?? FSU Clemson and now this game. There is zero justification for putting off the two point conversion until the last play, and it very well could have come back and bit him again tonight had we scored that last TD. You go for the 2 point conversion ASAP so you know exactly how many possessions you need to win the game. Putting it off until the last possible minute basically puts the game on a coin flip. You don't get the conversion at that point and the game is basically done. It's a pussy play call intended to make it appear that the game was within reach and had that one final play gone our way we would have sent the game to OT, when in reality had you taken the 2 point conversion earlier and failed the same way you would have been able to try and squeeze out and extra possession.

rant

 

[NDgradstudent]

Remember when we played the 12-1 MSU team in 2013 and gave up 13 points?

 

[military_irish]

Remember when we played the 12-1 MSU team in 2013 and gave up 13 points?

That team also had a better scheme and personnel. Day, Nix, Tuitt, Rochell, Smith, Russell, Farley. Not Alabama talent defense but they did their job and half are in the league now.

 

[Irish4Life09]

Remember when we played the 12-1 MSU team in 2013 and gave up 13 points?

We also didn't have Uncle Rico running our Defense.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

That team also had a better scheme and personnel. Day, Nix, Tuitt, Rochell, Smith, Russell, Farley. Not Alabama talent defense but they did their job and half are in the league now.

Motta, Bennet Jackson, Grace pre injury, I hate to say his name but Prince Shembo, etc


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[Rhode Irish]

Mathematically speaking, your only realistic chance of winning if you punt the ball is to get a 3&out. The odds of getting a 3&out are roughly 15%-25% depending on the defense. Then you have to get the ball back, go down the field, and score a TD in 2 minutes. Let's call the odds of that 50% given how ND's offense was playing... this is an aggressive number, but probably fair considering what was going on in the game.

So punting the ball away, Kelly was basically conceding a 90% chance of defeat.

Going for it on 4th & 7 is about a 35% chance of conversion. That is about twice as good as the odds of getting a 3&out, and you have more time, all your timeouts, and better field position if you convert. Statistically, there is no justification -- absolutely none -- for punting there. The only rationale is that the coaches don't know the math or chose to ignore the math because they're stupid and/or conservative wimps.

The coaches don't know this math because you just made most of that up. In willing to concede that maybe the coaches made right move there for the wrong reasons and they really don't know the math, but in that situation the chances of getting a 3 and out are very high because of the play calling you are likely to get. You can't look at all possessions that go 3 and out overall and say that's your chance of getting the ball back. If they hadn't burned the dumb timeout and/or Cole Luke had played defense, they'd have gotten the ball back exactly where they punted from (with a good punt from MSU, but more likely closer to midfield) with three minutes left. If there were less time, you had fewer timeouts or better field position, or you had less distance to cover on 4th down then I'd be fine with going for it. Like I said before, I'd go for it just about all over the field for all of the game up until about exactly the spot they were in right there. Where a FG ends the game, you can't roll the dice on 4th and long when the most likely outcome of punting is to gain incremental field position, get a new set of downs and only use 20-30 seconds and timeouts that would be meaningless if you had the ball at midfield 1st & 10 with 3:00 left.

 

[NDgradstudent]

That team also had a better scheme and personnel. Day, Nix, Tuitt, Rochell, Smith, Russell, Farley. Not Alabama talent defense but they did their job and half are in the league now.

And that was a better MSU team, too. And we gave up 23 fewer points.

 

[military_irish]

And that was a better MSU team, too. And we gave up 23 fewer points.

This is far from an excuse response but truthful. We really don't know how talented or good this team will be by the end of the year. Dantonio tends to get his teams up to play tough games. Hence the reason he has only lost 4 games in 3 seasons.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

This is far from an excuse response but truthful. We really don't know how talented or good this team will be by the end of the year. Dantonio tends to get his teams up to play tough games. Hence the reason he has only lost 4 games in 3 seasons.

Agree. Don't know how good this MSU team is yet...


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[NDgradstudent]

Agree. Don't know how good this MSU team is yet...


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We don't, but what difference should that make? Are we not supposed to be able to beat good teams?

 

[Sherm Sticky]

We don't, but what difference should that make? Are we not supposed to be able to beat good teams?

We are Notre Dame. We have not beating a good team in 23 years lol


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[military_irish]

We don't, but what difference should that make? Are we not supposed to be able to beat good teams?

Should and they always seem to be right on the verge but If I had to choose I'd rather get beat by good teams and not Navy, Tulsa, Northwestern, and teams similar.

Those losses give me nightmares. Getting beat by good teams is just heartbreaking.

 

[ulukinatme]

Our rushing attack sucks donkey balls right now, which is sad given the experience on offense is all on the OL and RB spots. I understand we get shut down by MSU's defense, but we didn't exactly light it up against Texas either. We're completely one dimensional on offense right now, unless we're playing a non P-5 team. If we continue to struggle running the ball against big boys, we're not going to find success.

Obviously the defense is the bigger question though, and tonight was probably just another nail in the coffin for BVG. He got a pass the first two years given the injuries, but at some point the excuses have to stop. Our front 7 are healthy, where is the pass rush? Why are we tackling poorly? Obviously the secondary is once again a banged up/suspended/ejected mess, but I'm not sure Lyght was the right guy for the job. I think Denson turned out very good, but our secondary has been a mess.

I honestly don't know why we don't try jamming receivers at the line either, it seems like all we do is play 3-7 yards off and play turn and run with them. Some of these teams we face are getting the ball out quickly, quicker than anyone's pass rush would be able to get to their QB. If we bought some time for our front 7, maybe we COULD get some sacks.

 

[IrishLax]

The coaches don't know this math because you just made most of that up.

Pro tip... don't be totally ignorant when commenting on something if you're going to talk shit and be wrong. Educate yourself before you embarrass yourself.

Going for It on 4th Down: Do the Statistics Say It’s a Gamble? | Minitab

Three-and-out Percentage: 2015 NFL Season

 

[phgreek]

Offense is really young. 3 first year starters on the oline. All 3 starting WR's are first time staters. TE is also vey green, Smythe has only started a handful of games. Where the hell has Latua been this year? Would like to see him play more to help it the line. As good as Kizer is, he is only a redshirt sophomore who has started a total of 14 games. The offense is good, but still very young.


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Yea....Offense is young, and a bit inconsistent. Which makes the poor play of the D that much worse. Need to pay a D coordinator that already has an identity and reputation. Texas and Sprty were very very bad losses. USC and Stanford will beat his team...and Vatech and Miami are a toss up at this point. BVG needs to go.

 

[philipm31]

Mathematically speaking, your only realistic chance of winning if you punt the ball is to get a 3&out. The odds of getting a 3&out are roughly 15%-25% depending on the defense. Then you have to get the ball back, go down the field, and score a TD in 2 minutes. Let's call the odds of that 50% given how ND's offense was playing... this is an aggressive number, but probably fair considering what was going on in the game.

So punting the ball away, Kelly was basically conceding a 90% chance of defeat.

Going for it on 4th & 7 is about a 35% chance of conversion. That is about twice as good as the odds of getting a 3&out, and you have more time, all your timeouts, and better field position if you convert. Statistically, there is no justification -- absolutely none -- for punting there. The only rationale is that the coaches don't know the math or chose to ignore the math because they're stupid and/or conservative wimps.

It is always the latter.

Oh, and they want to cover their ass.

Also, I was almost positive Kelly would come out conservative for literally no reason, just so he could say it was a tough loss and not have to shoulder as much blame as he richly deserved.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Pro tip... don't be totally ignorant when commenting on something if you're going to talk shit and be wrong. Educate yourself before you embarrass yourself.

Going for It on 4th Down: Do the Statistics Say It’s a Gamble? | Minitab

Three-and-out Percentage: 2015 NFL Season

I've read this. Many times. Very familiar with it. Like I said, because of situational play calling this type of analysis greatly understates the likelihood of forcing the other team to punt back to you.

 

[Crazy Balki]

Problem is we're not losing to good teams. Texas just got beat by an average at best Cal team. What does that say about us? Odds are that Michigan State isn't much better. We didn't lose to two good teams. We just outsucked two maybe okay teams. They aren't Stanford, Ohio State or Clemson from last year by any stretch.

 

[irish4ever]

BVG should have been fired after last year but tonight wasn't his fault. He should get at least one more week.

Fault?!? He sure as hell didn't help the Irish chances of winning tonight either. Irish D is equivalent to swiss cheese ... wholes galore!

 

[NDgradstudent]

Pro tip... don't be totally ignorant when commenting on something if you're going to talk shit and be wrong. Educate yourself before you embarrass yourself.

Going for It on 4th Down: Do the Statistics Say It’s a Gamble? | Minitab

Three-and-out Percentage: 2015 NFL Season

This is all true, obviously the game should not have been this close late. It should have been 28-15 or something.

 

[NDgradstudent]

BVG should have been fired after last year but tonight wasn't his fault. He should get at least one more week.

Right, when we beat a lousy Duke team 45-35, or whatever, he can stay on?

The D was put in tough spots again and again, no doubt about that. It was clear from watching MSU's D that they were fundamentally sound, especially against the run, and that we were not.

The buck stops with BK. He hired this guy, and kept him on after two appalling seasons on D. Time for a total overhaul of the program.

 

[Irish#1]

Given the discussion on the sideline, I think BVG will be gone after this year. I think it's also time for Longo. MSU must much stronger than us.

 

[NDgradstudent]

Given the discussion on the sideline, I think BVG will be gone after this year. I think it's also time for Longo. MSU must much stronger than us.

These are both Kelly cronies. BK apparently sees the university as the proverbial 'flags for orphans' bill in Congress that can be used to fund every stupid project somebody wants. Does he care about what is best for ND football?

 

[Irish#1]

Fault?!? He sure as hell didn't help the Irish chances of winning tonight either. Irish D is equivalent to swiss cheese ... wholes galore!

Right, when we beat a lousy Duke team 45-35, or whatever, he can stay on?

The D was put in tough spots again and again, no doubt about that. It was clear from watching MSU's D that they were fundamentally sound, especially against the run, and that we were not.

The buck stops with BK. He hired this guy, and kept him on after two appalling seasons on D. Time for a total overhaul of the program.

I've said give BVG this year before deciding, but this one sealed the deal for me. Our defense came to life late, but only because he started calling some run blitzes. He should have called some earlier in the game to keep MSU from getting into a flow.