Brian Kelly Revisited (RIP BOZO)

[BleedBlueGold]

Someone asked the II podcasters how far back the BVG era set back ND and they kind of scoffed at the question. I think it's a legit question and ultimately, if BK doesn't right the ship, will lead to his demise at ND. A head coach simply cannot accept the current product. He cannot make excuses for the current product. He cannot ignore the current product. The defense is bad. It's at the level of cost-you-your-job-bad.

 

[RDU Irish]

Someone asked the II podcasters how far back the BVG era set back ND and they kind of scoffed at the question. I think it's a legit question and ultimately, if BK doesn't right the ship, will lead to his demise at ND. A head coach simply cannot accept the current product. He cannot make excuses for the current product. He cannot ignore the current product. The defense is bad. It's at the level of cost-you-your-job-bad.

I think it is a fair question - I also think the answer is "not much at all". We have better defensive talent, it just needs to be put in a position to succeed. That is what makes this so damned frustrating - top 50 defense should be a given. I think a top notch DC could turn this around in one off-season (would have been nice if it were LAST offseason and not the NEXT one).

Keeping BVG had to have been an emotional decision, which is bad but you have to respect that on some level. With his kid on the sideline it really makes it tough on a personal level. Putting off a hard decision hurts worse though (see QB derby in addition to DC fiasco). No doubt in my mind the DC has to go if the HC is moving down to teach tackling technique.

 

[GO IRISH!!!]

Just a question, but if this team loses one or two of the next three games (making it either 3-3 or 2-4 heading in to the Stanford game), does someone on the staff get clipped mid-season? I think we might be 3-3 heading in to Stanford which I think is absolutely unacceptable.

At what point does something need to be done to salvage the recruiting?

 

[Irish#1]

Head coach Brian Kelly taking a more active role in Notre Dame's defense | Notre Dame Insider Football | ndinsider.com
I don't even know what to think about some of things Kelly says herein. I just don't even have words to express my lack of understanding.

Read between the lines...........BK realizes his seat is getting pretty hot.

1. This is the first step in BVG being let go at the end of the year. Sooner if BK & BVG clash over BK's involvement.

2. JS has been instrumental in upgrading and changing everything (admissions, training table, turf, etc.) associated with the football program. Given what he has done already, he's not going to settle for 3-5 losses every season. He may have been subtle or just came and and said it, but its been conveyed to BK that he is not happy with the results.

3. This could also be another step in BK realizing he needs to be more of a CEO and be involved in every facet of the program rather than giving the keys to one piece to someone else and ignoring it until it becomes bankrupt. Remember how he adjusted the recruiting program after a couple of years.

 

[WestCoast]

Remember how he adjusted the recruiting program after a couple of years.

2010 - 16th
2011 - 9th
2012 - 18th
2013 - 5th
2014 - 11th
2015 - 13th
2016 - 15th

Ummm... no, no I don't. The only adjustment I see lately is going back to where it began.

 

[ulukinatme]

Just a question, but if this team loses one or two of the next three games (making it either 3-3 or 2-4 heading in to the Stanford game), does someone on the staff get clipped mid-season? I think we might be 3-3 heading in to Stanford which I think is absolutely unacceptable.

At what point does something need to be done to salvage the recruiting?

Not saying it wouldn't happen, but you think we're dropping a game to either Duke, NC State, or Syracuse? NC State is the only one of those three that's averaging more points on offense than us, but they faced effectively two FCS teams and Eastern Carolina (Who they lost to). Even if we had to get into a shoot out with NC State (heaven help us), I think we're coming out on top 9 times out of 10.

In any case, even if our defense is super porous for the next three games, I see no reason this offense won't score more than the other team. Stanford...that's a different story.

 

[Cali_domer]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSTlr5jHgmQ

BK needs to take his own advice (2:00- 2:08)

 

[Irish#1]

2010 - 16th
2011 - 9th
2012 - 18th
2013 - 5th
2014 - 11th
2015 - 13th
2016 - 15th

Ummm... no, no I don't. The only adjustment I see lately is going back to where it began.

Let me refresh your memory. We were missing on a lot of kids the first couple of years because we were late offering. He's now contacting kids as freshmen and sophomores.

 

[WestCoast]

Let me refresh your memory. We were missing on a lot of kids the first couple of years because we were late offering. He's now contacting kids as freshmen and sophomores.

That's nice. Downward slide is still downward slide. But I'm sure those young kids like getting the call before they choose another school. It's checks an item of their bucket list.

 

[Blaise]

That's nice. Downward slide is still downward slide. But I'm sure those young kids like getting the call before they choose another school. It's checks an item of their bucket list.

the 2018 class is shaping up to be the best class in Kelly's history... Notre Dame is ranked 4-7 in the 2017 class as of right now depending on what site you look at...

 

[WestCoast]

the 2018 class is shaping up to be the best class in Kelly's history... Notre Dame is ranked 4-7 in the 2017 class as of right now depending on what site you look at...

My prior numbers were using 24/7 composite. So yes, if you use one service over another it could be highly rate.

I don't think it's going to be the highest in BK's tenure. In order to stay at or near #5 (which was his 2013 class) it would need to be higher right now. ND will sign less of the top-100 than other schools that are near it on the ranking list. I suspect this class ends up outside the top 10 (24/7 composite).

For most of his classes, offensive players made up 3 or more of the top 5, and 6 or more of the top 10 players signed. If you look at his 2 best classes, the top recruits were on defense.

In 2011 it was 1-Lynch, 2-Williams and 3-Tuitt. The closest offensive player was 4-Ben Koyack (I hear he had a lot of potential). In 2013, it was 1-J.Smith and 2-Redfield.

This year, the highest defensive recruits are 4-Adams and 5-Ewell, and 5 of the top 10 are on defense (that's as of right now -- those might be bumped down if higher rated offensive recruits sign).

If I'm not mistaken, the most likely remaining recruits are OL, WR, WR and CB. So unless something changes, the offense vs defense make-up of this class will once again favor offense at the top, which leads me to believe it will end up outside the top 10.

 

[BoredIrish]

Last week, Ohio State coach Urban Meyer let us know that the defensive coaches absolutely would use Oklahoma backup quarterback Austin Kendall’s comments that said the Buckeyes had a “basic defense.” After Ohio State’s 45-24 win, they are selling “basic defense” shirts in Columbus now.

More ducks, trucks and Tennessee-Florida trash talk, please | NCAA Football | Sporting News

What I wouldnt give for an ND team that could play basic defense.

 

[NDgradstudent]

the 2018 class is shaping up to be the best class in Kelly's history... Notre Dame is ranked 4-7 in the 2017 class as of right now depending on what site you look at...

What have Kelly's results been with the 2013 class? 9-4, 8-5, 10-3 (with losses to each good team we played), and now 1-2. No playoff appearances, no big bowl wins. Color me pessimistic about what he will do with this class, too, even if it stays ranked where it is now.

 

[GO IRISH!!!]

Not saying it wouldn't happen, but you think we're dropping a game to either Duke, NC State, or Syracuse? NC State is the only one of those three that's averaging more points on offense than us, but they faced effectively two FCS teams and Eastern Carolina (Who they lost to). Even if we had to get into a shoot out with NC State (heaven help us), I think we're coming out on top 9 times out of 10.

In any case, even if our defense is super porous for the next three games, I see no reason this offense won't score more than the other team. Stanford...that's a different story.

Yep.

I will almost never pick the Irish to lose. I won't even bet against them with my vBucks no matter how crazy the spread. However, based solely on my assessment of the team and the feeling I am having this season, I really think we lose one, if not even two of those games.

From the couch in my living room, I am seeing the psyche of this team is very fragile right now. I think there is tension among the coaches, I think there is increased pressure on them to turn this around, and I think there are still lingering distractions from off the field including, but not limited to the arrests before the season. I have no direct knowledge and I am basing this solely on what I infer from the circumstances I am seeing.

This is just my opinion and I don't blame anyone for disagreeing with me, but I am preparing myself for one possibly two shit shows over the next three games.

You're right about the Stanford game. I am just glad I will be at a swanky all-inclusive resort on the Mayan Riviera in Mexico for that one. I plan to be hammered and floating in the pool that entire day, so I might not care too much at the time. McCaffery could hang 500 AP yards and 4+ touchdowns on us and could have his Heisman highlight reel type game.

 

[ulukinatme]

I think we'd have to really fall off offensively to drop a game to Duke and Syracuse. I could see NC State getting a possible upset since they seem to have a decent offense, but I think we still win in a shootout.

 

[Irish Insanity]

I think we'd have to really fall off offensively to drop a game to Duke and Syracuse. I could see NC State getting a possible upset since they seem to have a decent offense, but I think we still win in a shootout.

Upset? Would it really be an upset if they won...

 

[ND NYC]

anyone happen to catch the FSU "season with" episode last night? (the episode that covered the big loss to Louisville)

I was actually very impressed with Jimbo Fisher, and how he handled and reacted to the ass whoopiin they got and how he handled himself, his players, coaches... what he said to them etc during and after the game.

worth the watch

 

[ulukinatme]

Upset? Would it really be an upset if they won...

In the traditional sense that we should be favored to win, yes.
I think they'll put a lot of points up on us, but there's no reason we shouldn't beat them in a shoot out...crummy defense aside.

 

[ScooterIrish]

I think we'd have to really fall off offensively to drop a game to Duke and Syracuse. I could see NC State getting a possible upset since they seem to have a decent offense, but I think we still win in a shootout.

Lol yeah fair to judge the NCSU offense based on games against ODU and William & Mary. NCSU is not good and if Kelly can't beat them, it will be his worse L at ND.

 

[irishff1014]

Lol yeah fair to judge the NCSU offense based on games against ODU and William & Mary. NCSU is not good and if Kelly can't beat them, it will be his worse L at ND.

The USF lose was pretty bad.

 

[dang227]

The USF lose was pretty bad.

Absolutely. I was there and USF looked like a MAC team. Still can't believe we lost that game.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[kmoose]

NCSU is not good and if Kelly can't beat them, it will be his worse L at ND.

The USF lose was pretty bad.

Notre Dame vs. Navy Oct. 23, 2010

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Recruiting:

How many of those top rated players are still on the team from 2013?

Eddie V - never came to ND
Jaylon - left early for NFL. IMO, potential wasn't fully utilized by BVG
Greg Bryant - rarely played while at ND. RIP.
Max Redfield - absolute bust. His fault? Coaches? He gone, so it doesn't matter.
Steve Elmer - quit football
Corey Robinson - quit football
Mike Huerman - quit football
Fuller - left early for NFL
Doug Randolph - quit football
Kinlaw - no longer at ND
Butler - currently not with team
Deeb - quit football

That's 50% of the class that is not on the 2016 football team as seniors. Hell, only a few of those guys contributed to last year's success.

The 2014 class had numbers but lacked talent on defense. Only 3 or the 13 were rated 4* or better by Rivals. Two of the three are currently injured.

This trend is not unique. It's basically the norm. Go back and look at all of BK's classes and see how many highly rated kids never lasted at ND.

Take all of these recruiting misses and compound that with bad coaching and key injuries to the guys who are there, and that's how you end up with all of these losses.

 

[Hammer Of The Gods]

I think we'd have to really fall off offensively to drop a game to Duke and Syracuse. I could see NC State getting a possible upset since they seem to have a decent offense, but I think we still win in a shootout.

Here is going to be some of the problem in my opinion. There will be a select few that are trying to go to the NFL, like legit go. So, they will play hard, but it won't be assignment football its going to turn into a all about 'me' show. The incentives are gone on the season outside of personal gain. That is a recipe for disaster.

 

[ulukinatme]

Lol yeah fair to judge the NCSU offense based on games against ODU and William & Mary. NCSU is not good and if Kelly can't beat them, it will be his worse L at ND.

That was kind of my point...the poster I was responding to was calling for 1-2 losses in the next three games, with those opponents being Duke, NC St, and Syracuse. I don't see it, but I thought MAYBE given how bad our defense is we get in a shootout with NC St because they seem to have the more productive offense among the 3. However, I still said there's no reason we shouldn't out score them even if our defense completely shits the bed.

 

[Guest]

Recruiting:

How many of those top rated players are still on the team from 2013?

Eddie V - never came to ND
Jaylon - left early for NFL. IMO, potential wasn't fully utilized by BVG
Greg Bryant - rarely played while at ND. RIP.
Max Redfield - absolute bust. His fault? Coaches? He gone, so it doesn't matter.
Steve Elmer - quit football
Corey Robinson - quit football
Mike Huerman - quit football
Fuller - left early for NFL
Doug Randolph - quit football
Kinlaw - no longer at ND
Butler - currently not with team
Deeb - quit football

That's 50% of the class that is not on the 2016 football team as seniors. Hell, only a few of those guys contributed to last year's success.

The 2014 class had numbers but lacked talent on defense. Only 3 or the 13 were rated 4* or better by Rivals. Two of the three are currently injured.

This trend is not unique. It's basically the norm. Go back and look at all of BK's classes and see how many highly rated kids never lasted at ND.

Take all of these recruiting misses and compound that with bad coaching and key injuries to the guys who are there, and that's how you end up with all of these losses.

This is one of the reasons you succession plan, and never rely on 'key' recruits or players. Each season should have at least 2 of every position taken, with exception at QB (1 good every year is fine) and special teams specific players. But in the case of busts and academic suspensions, use the Noah's ark rule to reduce the impact key players can have when they don't pan out.

But what BK does is load up on OL, RB, and WR and that is why our offense is that good. If they spread it a bit more to the defense, then the team will be more balanced, but still have a good offense. And they will have a nice spread of upper and lower classmen contributing every year. This is what good teams do as consistently as possible!

 

[ulukinatme]

This is one of the reasons you succession plan, and never rely on 'key' recruits or players. Each season should have at least 2 of every position taken, with exception at QB (1 good every year is fine) and special teams specific players. But in the case of busts and academic suspensions, use the Noah's ark rule to reduce the impact key players can have when they don't pan out.

But what BK does is load up on OL, RB, and WR and that is why our offense is that good. If they spread it a bit more to the defense, then the team will be more balanced, but still have a good offense. And they will have a nice spread of upper and lower classmen contributing every year. This is what good teams do as consistently as possible!

I see what you're saying, but I think his point is we should have been counting on some or most of those guys to provide leadership/experience as seniors on this team this year. Instead none of them are currently playing and we're forced to play younger players. Ideally a well managed roster is playing almost all seniors and juniors each year, but that doesn't always happen because of roster turnover and the occasional player that fails to live up to expectations. What we're experiencing with this 2013 class is pretty bad though, that's a lot of players that didn't make it to Senior year, and it was a class that was pretty stacked from top to bottom. It's not that we were relying on key players, we were relying on at least MOST of the 2013 class surviving till year 4. Instead half the class has either moved on, quit, or transferred.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I see what you're saying, but I think his point is we should have been counting on some or most of those guys to provide leadership/experience as seniors on this team this year. Instead none of them are currently playing and we're forced to play younger players. Ideally a well managed roster is playing almost all seniors and juniors each year, but that doesn't always happen because of roster turnover and the occasional player that fails to live up to expectations. What we're experiencing with this 2013 class is pretty bad though, that's a lot of players that didn't make it to Senior year, and it was a class that was pretty stacked from top to bottom. It's not that we were relying on key players, we were relying on at least MOST of the 2013 class surviving till year 4. Instead half the class has either moved on, quit, or transferred.

Yup.

 

[11titlesandcounting]

The answer is likely not for several years. He will likely quit first. He is a pretty good coach who can deal with this administration, academic requirements, and runs a pretty clean program (some infractions notwithstanding).

However, from a football perspective, his hiring of Vangorder should be his undoing. BVG cannot coach. The recruiting on the defensive side has caught up to the offense. They should have a good, solid defense now. There is simply no excuse for the type of bullshit we saw against Texas.

Also, Kelly's questionable clock management and handling of the QB situation makes me think he has hit his ceiling has a head coach at ND. I think he is a quality coach but not one of the elite. Not that I expect one of the elite to come here ...

If Kelly had hired a good college DC, it's likely we are singing his praises even with some of his mistakes. But with this loss and the complete cluster fuck of a defense, I think we have seen the best he has to offer the team.

I am not sure who we will get to replace him given the challenges of coaching at ND. I am not sure whomever we could get would even be better. It could setup a dry spell where we wish he was still here. But I know that if you want ND to actually be one of the challengers every year, this isn't it. Can ND ever be one of the truly elite programs again? I am not sure.

Kelly has had more than enough time to build a winning program. He simply made too many mistakes along the way to get ND over the hump. Still a very good coach, but I think fans are going to begin to want to run him out of town at the end of this season because of another big disappointing year. This defense is going to get murdered by several teams, and we may be looking at 4-5 losses again even though the offense is fantastic.

If we go 8-4 or worse he should be fired.

Unfortunately the admin won't act unless at least has a losing record . He might not even get fired at 5-7 or 4-8. 3-9 is the point where I'm relatively certain the admin wouldn't consider retaining him.

 

[kmoose]

The incentives are gone on the season outside of personal gain. That is a recipe for disaster.

You rip off 9 wins in a row to finish 10-2, having beaten the likes of Stanford, Miami, Virginia Tech, and USC along the way; you're getting a good bowl, most likely a NY6 bowl. If that's not an incentive, then you don't belong at ND.