Biden Presidency

[IrishLax]

lol

 

[IrishLax]

I don’t think he’d lose in a landslide. The major cities will still vote for him in droves b/c he’s not Trump. They’ll justify it by saying “well whoever was pulling the levers for Biden these past four years hasn’t been that bad & he’s still not orange Hitler”. It’s the inverse of the Lefties talking points on these threads who love to mock those who are right of center but won’t vote Trump. They’re the same…they will or would still vote Biden.

The thing is tho:
1. He has worse polling with minorities than any Democratic candidate in recent memory
2. He is getting killed in swing states
3. The demographic that carried Biden last time around was suburban, educated whites that flipped from 2016 Trump to 2020 Biden. Personal anecdote but I think a lot of “country club Republican” types are flipping back from Biden or planning to not vote. No data on this, just vibes.

As things stand I expect Trump to win every midwestern swing state, Georgia, and Arizona. Virginia, Nevada, and some others could also hypothetically be in play. Could be wrong but I expect Trump electoral blowout with a narrow popular vote victory unless the Dems drop Biden.

 

[Irish#1]

The thing is tho:
1. He has worse polling with minorities than any Democratic candidate in recent memory
2. He is getting killed in swing states
3. The demographic that carried Biden last time around was suburban, educated whites that flipped from 2016 Trump to 2020 Biden. Personal anecdote but I think a lot of “country club Republican” types are flipping back from Biden or planning to not vote. No data on this, just vibes.

As things stand I expect Trump to win every midwestern swing state, Georgia, and Arizona. Virginia, Nevada, and some others could also hypothetically be in play. Could be wrong but I expect Trump electoral blowout with a narrow popular vote victory unless the Dems drop Biden.

Well Joe said he's not dropping out and TBH, with Jill and Hunter encouraging him to stay in it, I don't think he will drop out regardless of the pressure. Whether he stays in or they find a way to run someone else, it's not a good look for the Dems. I'm curious to see what the fallout is in senate or congressional races if Joe stays in.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

The thing is tho:
1. He has worse polling with minorities than any Democratic candidate in recent memory
2. He is getting killed in swing states
3. The demographic that carried Biden last time around was suburban, educated whites that flipped from 2016 Trump to 2020 Biden. Personal anecdote but I think a lot of “country club Republican” types are flipping back from Biden or planning to not vote. No data on this, just vibes.

As things stand I expect Trump to win every midwestern swing state, Georgia, and Arizona. Virginia, Nevada, and some others could also hypothetically be in play. Could be wrong but I expect Trump electoral blowout with a narrow popular vote victory unless the Dems drop Biden.

Let’s see what happens after the two conventions. I can’t see Trump getting any part of a popular vote victory & the electoral will go down to the very end IMO. Just gut feeling.

 

[Irish#1]

Joe has dug in, but not every Dem supports this.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/10/politics/biden-democratic-lawmakers-analysis/index.html

 

[Irish#1]

 

[Irish#1]

Oops

 

[Bishop2b5]

If Biden stays in the race, he's going to be beaten soundly by Trump. If the Dems replace him with Kamala, the most likely successor, she's polling even worse than Biden and is extremely unqualified and will be beaten soundly by Trump. Replacing Biden with anyone besides Kamala has its own problems that will play into Trump's hands and likely be a disaster that leads to a big loss in November, including the down ballot races.

I've become convinced that the best course of action for the Dems is to accept the loss now and use the rest of the election cycle to position themselves for 2028. Trying to win 2024 with some candidate nobody wants, slight-of-hand, last minute savior nonsense, or trotting a disliked incompetent unqualified Harris out there to be the sacrificial lamb is foolish. Pick someone who has a chance to win in '28, accept that they can't win now under the circumstances, but give them a chance to look "presidential" and on the rise, like Reagan in '76, and use this as the first step in your '28 campaign.

 

[NDVirginia19]

Mostly I brush off these "Celebrity says XXX about politics" but I legitimately think this Clooney piece in the NYT is going to be the most impactful thing that causes the democrats to get Biden to bow out

 

[ulukinatme]

If Biden stays in the race, he's going to be beaten soundly by Trump. If the Dems replace him with Kamala, the most likely successor, she's polling even worse than Biden and is extremely unqualified and will be beaten soundly by Trump. Replacing Biden with anyone besides Kamala has its own problems that will play into Trump's hands and likely be a disaster that leads to a big loss in November, including the down ballot races.

I've become convinced that the best course of action for the Dems is to accept the loss now and use the rest of the election cycle to position themselves for 2028. Trying to win 2024 with some candidate nobody wants, slight-of-hand, last minute savior nonsense, or trotting a disliked incompetent unqualified Harris out there to be the sacrificial lamb is foolish. Pick someone who has a chance to win in '28, accept that they can't win now under the circumstances, but give them a chance to look "presidential" and on the rise, like Reagan in '76, and use this as the first step in your '28 campaign.

I feel like both parties need a reset and should throw their support behind moderate candidates. The moderates tend not to do well in the primaries, but if they make it out they connect better with the independents which is who you really want to impress come election time. Charisma doesn't hurt either, usually the more charismatic candidate wins over voters. The exception was 2020, but there was a lot that went into that fiasco. First time in several decades that a candidate won without bellwethers Ohio and Florida, not to mention a pandemic the likes of which hadn't been seen in 100 years.

 

[NDVirginia19]

I feel like both parties need a reset and should throw their support behind moderate candidates. The moderates tend not to do well in the primaries, but if they make it out they connect better with the independents which is who you really want to impress come election time. Charisma doesn't hurt either, usually the more charismatic candidate wins over voters. The exception was 2020, but there was a lot that went into that fiasco. First time in several decades that a candidate won without bellwethers Ohio and Florida, not to mention a pandemic the likes of which hadn't been seen in 100 years.

That is exactly why having increased political participation in the primary process is a huge mistake, and I think probably the single most influential development of the 1900s that has lead to the political polarization of today. Participation in primaries is largely skewed towards the activist-extremes of the respective political parties, which elects more polarizing political figures at all ends of government, gives more political power to extreme activists for the parties, and degrades the ability for a centrist contingent to have significant political power. It entrenches a two party system as well. There is zero chance that the smoked filled back rooms of party elite would ever pick somebody like Donald Trump to be the nominee, and you would see more strategic center-friendly candidates. Of course, if the party elite were not responding to the desires of the electorate, you would see more third party power and the waning and waxing of existing parties, as was present in all of American history before the open electing primaries of today.

 

[IrishLax]

When you lose Clooney you’ve already lost everyone else lol

 

[GATTACA!]

When you lose Clooney you’ve already lost everyone else lol

He's no Scott Baio, but this is not a great look.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

When you lose Clooney you’ve already lost everyone else lol

From Conkrite in ‘68 to Clooney in ‘24. How apropos

 

[GATTACA!]

If Biden stays in the race, he's going to be beaten soundly by Trump. If the Dems replace him with Kamala, the most likely successor, she's polling even worse than Biden and is extremely unqualified and will be beaten soundly by Trump. Replacing Biden with anyone besides Kamala has its own problems that will play into Trump's hands and likely be a disaster that leads to a big loss in November, including the down ballot races.

I've become convinced that the best course of action for the Dems is to accept the loss now and use the rest of the election cycle to position themselves for 2028. Trying to win 2024 with some candidate nobody wants, slight-of-hand, last minute savior nonsense, or trotting a disliked incompetent unqualified Harris out there to be the sacrificial lamb is foolish. Pick someone who has a chance to win in '28, accept that they can't win now under the circumstances, but give them a chance to look "presidential" and on the rise, like Reagan in '76, and use this as the first step in your '28 campaign.

Biden and Kamala both auto lose. Anyone arguing otherwise at this point is delusional.

How would you handicap the other options? I think Whitmer wins. I think she all but guarantees you Michigan and will play extremely well with women in the wake of Roe.

 

[TorontoGold]

I feel like both parties need a reset and should throw their support behind moderate candidates. The moderates tend not to do well in the primaries, but if they make it out they connect better with the independents which is who you really want to impress come election time. Charisma doesn't hurt either, usually the more charismatic candidate wins over voters. The exception was 2020, but there was a lot that went into that fiasco. First time in several decades that a candidate won without bellwethers Ohio and Florida, not to mention a pandemic the likes of which hadn't been seen in 100 years.

Moderate Dems rallied around Biden in 2020 lmao they hold responsibility for this mess. They literally could have picked Mayor Pete to just be younger Biden.

 

[Bishop2b5]

As long as the rest of the world plays nice and doesn't do anything crazy the other 18 hours per day, everything will be fine.

 

[RDU Irish]

The issue is down ticket. Knowing you are losing depresses your base and lowers turnout. Tester, Manchin and Brown (MT, WV, OH) are already swimming upstream to stay blue with Manchin pretty much conceded. They way things are running they also need to defend AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA, VA. Even MD could be a battle with no incumbent running. At current polling it's easy to imagine Rs picking up 5-6 senate seats for the strongest margin they have had in a long time. Would be a shame if Menendez took enough as an independent to lose that seat for the Dems.

I have no idea what impact this has on the house but I would think 20 seat pickup would be a reasonable low end estimate.

A swing to a 55-43-2 Senate and 240-193 house would set the stage for a pretty strong "Trump mandate". Those independents would be silly not to caucus with Republicans too. This is why everyone's hair is on fire on the left.

 

[Bishop2b5]

Biden and Kamala both auto lose. Anyone arguing otherwise at this point is delusional.

How would you handicap the other options? I think Whitmer wins. I think she all but guarantees you Michigan and will play extremely well with women in the wake of Roe.

I don't think Whitmer has much national presence nor any real organization. Who would she bring in on the abortion issue that isn't already going to vote Dem regardless of the candidate? I just don't see anyone with the charisma or national pull to win for the Dems in '24. Plenty of run-of-the-mill Dems that are little more than Joe or Hillary rubber stamp types without the charisma, but nobody inspiring in the least who can pull a lot of undecideds from the middle, which is where a presidential election is won. Maybe they find someone and pull off a miracle, but I doubt it and I still think their best bet is to use this to set up for '28 like the Reps did with Reagan in '76.

 

[RDU Irish]

I don't think Whitmer has much national presence nor any real organization. Who would she bring in on the abortion issue that isn't already going to vote Dem regardless of the candidate? I just don't see anyone with the charisma or national pull to win for the Dems in '24. Plenty of run-of-the-mill Dems that are little more than Joe or Hillary rubber stamp types without the charisma, but nobody inspiring in the least who can pull a lot of undecideds from the middle, which is where a presidential election is won. Maybe they find someone and pull off a miracle, but I doubt it and I still think their best bet is to use this to set up for '28 like the Reps did with Reagan in '76.

I think you are correct in your assessment which is why I expect Biden gets the kibosh at the convention. Whitmer probably secures the Michigan senate seat but if they need to secure the Michigan Senate seat they probably have bigger problems in PA, NV, AZ, VA for example.

 

[GATTACA!]

I don't think Whitmer has much national presence nor any real organization. Who would she bring in on the abortion issue that isn't already going to vote Dem regardless of the candidate? I just don't see anyone with the charisma or national pull to win for the Dems in '24. Plenty of run-of-the-mill Dems that are little more than Joe or Hillary rubber stamp types without the charisma, but nobody inspiring in the least who can pull a lot of undecideds from the middle, which is where a presidential election is won. Maybe they find someone and pull off a miracle, but I doubt it and I still think their best bet is to use this to set up for '28 like the Reps did with Reagan in '76.

I don't think it's about turning voters blue. I think 95% of the population has already picked their side. The election is going to come down to getting people out to actually vote. No one is running to the polls for Biden. You can only inspire so much action by getting people to vote against someone. A young energetic candidate might actually get some people to go vote for them.

Whitmer is not well known nationally yet but that could work in her favor. Allows her to make a fresh impression and distance herself from the current administration. Also replacing Biden at the convention would be gigantic news. She would dominate the news cycle for weeks.

 

[Bishop2b5]

I don't think it's about turning voters blue. I think 95% of the population has already picked their side. The election is going to come down to getting people out to actually vote. No one is running to the polls for Biden. You can only inspire so much action by getting people to vote against someone. A young energetic candidate might actually get some people to go vote for them.

Whitmer is not well known nationally yet but that could work in her favor. Allows her to make a fresh impression and distance herself from the current administration. Also replacing Biden at the convention would be gigantic news. She would dominate the news cycle for weeks.

Anyone but Kamala is going to present a field day to Trump to pound the Left for abandoning their woman of color VP. "You picked her for her race & gender, but clearly don't think she's actually qualified. Or do you just not really want a black woman like you claimed?" It'll be savage and paint the Dems as pandering in 2020 or hypocritical in '24, and he'll be right. And if they stick with her, it'll be an automatic loss as you said. Whitmer is very unlikely to win now for those reasons and the others I mentioned before. Setting her up for '28 might be effective, though.

 

[GATTACA!]

Anyone but Kamala is going to present a field day to Trump to pound the Left for abandoning their woman of color VP. "You picked her for her race & gender, but clearly don't think she's actually qualified. Or do you just not really want a black woman like you claimed?" It'll be savage and paint the Dems as pandering in 2020 or hypocritical in '24, and he'll be right. And if they stick with her, it'll be an automatic loss as you said. Whitmer is very unlikely to win now for those reasons and the others I mentioned before. Setting her up for '28 might be effective, though.

This would be an issue if anyone actually liked her. She was already unpopular because of her time as DA and sounding like she’s constantly bombed out on Pinot. Most people online don’t want her to be the replacement and even just from a pragmatic standpoint understanding that she already polls worse than Biden who could be upset?

They could also do a mini primary and make her compete for it so it doesn’t look like they completely stepped over her. She would certainly lose that runoff.

 

[RDU Irish]

This would be an issue if anyone actually liked her. She was already unpopular because of her time as DA and sounding like she’s constantly bombed out on Pinot. Most people online don’t want her to be the replacement and even just from a pragmatic standpoint understanding that she already polls worse than Biden who could be upset?

They could also do a mini primary and make her compete for it so it doesn’t look like they completely stepped over her. She would certainly lose that runoff.

Why do we act like Dems care about looking fair? They can do whatever they want and the media will fall in line to praise them for it. Mini primary at the convention is a plenty defensible path for them and presents the chance to build some momentum. Is the pandering DEI bullshit really inspiring or winning anyone over anyway?

 

[IrishLax]

The cover up here was truly insane. The media actively suppressed that he has been comatose for 1-2 years. Who has been running the country!?!

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

This would be an issue if anyone actually liked her. She was already unpopular because of her time as DA and sounding like she’s constantly bombed out on Pinot. Most people online don’t want her to be the replacement and even just from a pragmatic standpoint understanding that she already polls worse than Biden who could be upset?

They could also do a mini primary and make her compete for it so it doesn’t look like they completely stepped over her. She would certainly lose that runoff.

The CEOs like her. That's where I have to wonder.

I think Whitmer is the best bat the Democrats have on the bench.

 

[Bishop2b5]

And it's not like it hasn't been rather obvious to us all. He's been spiraling down and having an increasing and alarming number of goofs and brain-dead moments for at least 2-3 years. We've all seen it, even with the press and his handlers doing their best to hide it and cover it up and explain it away and "manage" him and limit his opportunities to have a confused moment. They're the people with a much greater access to him than us and we could see it, so they surely could, and yet they intentionally deceived us.

 

[GATTACA!]

Memo: Welcome test of alternative Democratic presidential candidates

To: Interested Parties From: Jason Boxt - Senior Research Advisor, PFP Research and 3W Insights Date: July 9, 2024 RE: Test of alternative Democratic presidential candidates Summary As the political class feverishly debates potential alternative Democratic presidential nominees, Welcome...

www.welcomestack.org

Among Democrats tested, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris trail, while all other potential Democrats lead.
​

Ten alternative Democratic candidates were tested against former President Donald Trump. To help control for the different levels of awareness of each candidate, likely voters were provided a brief bio of each candidate, including Trump and Biden. These bios were sourced from campaign materials, specifically from what appeared on these candidates’ websites. We randomized between two biographies for every candidate to control for the idiosyncrasies of a single biography.

Every one of the alternative Democratic candidates outpaced Joe Biden in head to head polling against Trump. Joe Biden himself trailed Donald Trump by nearly 4 points, while Kamala Harris trails by a point.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown emerged as the strongest candidates from this testing. Both received 49% of the vote compared to 44% for Donald Trump. The rest of the vote went to third parties. This translates into a popular vote margin of victory of 5%. They were closely followed by Senator Raphael Warnock, Secretary Gina Raimondo and Governor Gretchen Whitmer, all leading Trump by 4 points. All five of these candidates performed roughly similarly.

 

[Sea Turtle]

The cover up here was truly insane. The media actively suppressed that he has been comatose for 1-2 years. Who has been running the country!?!

So does this mean that the press really is the enemy of the people?

I mean, what other conclusion can you draw?

Trump says clumsy, coarse things but they seem to be correct. And you know he is correct when the press pummels him.

 

[ulukinatme]

The cover up here was truly insane. The media actively suppressed that he has been comatose for 1-2 years. Who has been running the country!?!

It's crazy that people have been sounding the alarm for awhile on this and some are just finding out. The media has been covering for him and suppressing it for awhile. I imagine there's a number of people that have been covering for him in his inner circle and they're the ones calling a lot of the shots. We know KJP has been running his Twitter for one, along with other aides. She recently said his team would handle nuclear threats that come in after 8pm.

The press on both sides in this country have really done a bang up job keeping the American people in the dark in the last decade. I mean, it's certainly been going on a lot longer, but it's harder to wave it away with the rise of the internet and social media. It's no wonder trust in the media has waned further and further over time. The deception is sad, they think we're all just puppets in the end.