Biden Presidency

[drayer54]

Despite Russian imports doubling under Biden (kompromat?) my Devon, Chevron, and Coterra are doing just fine. Don't ask me about tech.

 

[Irish#1]

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[drayer54]

Interesting to see Kyiv calm and many in Europe reluctant to believe Putin will advance. Russian media is blaming the US of course and pointing out corrupt business practices with Biden and Ukraine. Getting the Russian/Ukrainian point of view this morning on an energy update was interesting.

 

[RDU Irish]

Sounds like an opportunity for countries that export natural gas and wheat. Anybody got that venn diagram handy?

Liquid Natural Gas is limited by supply chain constraints - maybe if the US had invested in LNG infrastructure and partnered closer with our European allies ten years ago instead of going all in on unicorn horns and divesting from evil oil/gas companies..... US industries that are heavy nat gas consumers have a huge global advantage right now. Europe is shutting down a lot of industry b/c 1) the high nat gas price makes production uneconomical and 2) scarcity necessitates resources are diverted to heating homes. People are getting crushed with $1000+ monthly heating bills. 50% of European gas comes from Russia - they are funding their own demise. Keystone gets axed, Nordstream thumbs up! Asia and Europe fighting for those LNG ships - can't fill them up and ship them fast enough.

Nitrogen fertilizers are primarily produced using natural gas - US centric producers are making ridiculous profits (watch CF, NTR, LXU, UAN this week as earnings roll out). Coal producer Peabody Energy (BTU) just announced Q4 profits equal to one fourth of their stock price. In both cases prices for Q1 are higher than they were in Q4 with negligible change in their production costs. Dirty business that has had zero capital investment after being vilified for a decade is where it is at.

 

[Irish#1]

Just heard on the radio that some intelligence are reporting that Putin is going to invade on Wednesday. Joe better cinch up his belt because this could be a bigger disaster than Afghanistan if not handled right.

 

[Armyirish47]

Liquid Natural Gas is limited by supply chain constraints - maybe if the US had invested in LNG infrastructure and partnered closer with our European allies ten years ago instead of going all in on unicorn horns and divesting from evil oil/gas companies..... US industries that are heavy nat gas consumers have a huge global advantage right now. Europe is shutting down a lot of industry b/c 1) the high nat gas price makes production uneconomical and 2) scarcity necessitates resources are diverted to heating homes. People are getting crushed with $1000+ monthly heating bills. 50% of European gas comes from Russia - they are funding their own demise. Keystone gets axed, Nordstream thumbs up! Asia and Europe fighting for those LNG ships - can't fill them up and ship them fast enough.

Nitrogen fertilizers are primarily produced using natural gas - US centric producers are making ridiculous profits (watch CF, NTR, LXU, UAN this week as earnings roll out). Coal producer Peabody Energy (BTU) just announced Q4 profits equal to one fourth of their stock price. In both cases prices for Q1 are higher than they were in Q4 with negligible change in their production costs. Dirty business that has had zero capital investment after being vilified for a decade is where it is at.

Lol, what isn't limited by supply chain constraints? I guess the US could have partnered closer or something but that is driven more by price of natural gas than anything. Unicorn horns are funny and all but the US has gone from no LNG exports prior to 2016 to being the projected world leader this year with 6 different export terminals. Soooo the last ten years have taken some pretty big investments. Which positions the US to continue to be a leader in exports. USA! USA! USA! Keystone is tar sands, not sure what point that is about?


The rest of your post sounds like good news for US companies? Or bad because ridiculous profits are contributing to inflation? Or something?

 

[Irish#1]

Just heard on the radio that some intelligence are reporting that Putin is going to invade on Wednesday. Joe better cinch up his belt because this could be a bigger disaster than Afghanistan if not handled right.

Russia is saying they are withdrawing some troops, but they haven't provided any details on the size of the withdrawal. While Russia issued that statement, reports show that they just added a regiment(?) of 75 helicopters in another area. I'm beginning to think Putin is just screwing with everyone to flex his ego.

 

[drayer54]

The rest of the world has been consistent that the invasion wasn't happening. It's only the dream team in DC that keeps saying otherwise.

 

[ulukinatme]

The rest of the world has been consistent that the invasion wasn't happening. It's only the dream team in DC that keeps saying otherwise.

Might just be smoke to distract from other issues. If they do invade it'll be interesting to see how Biden handles it.

 

[drayer54]

This is a pure lie to set up a press conference to claim they deterred Russia and ended Covid.

 

[Sea Turtle]

This is a pure lie to set up a press conference to claim they deterred Russia and ended Covid.

I tend to agree.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Even the Ukrainians said it wasn't happening.

 

[ulukinatme]

To be fair, if Russia did invade it wouldn't be the first time on Biden's/Obama's watch.

 

[drayer54]

ir, if Russia did invade it wouldn't be the first time on Biden's/Obam

The fact that Kyiv has shelves stocked better than Indiana and the complete normalcy there, tells me that nobody thought it was going to happen. My Russian neighbors who lived in Soviet Ukraine for 40 ish years told me nobody they know over there thinks anything will happen and the Russian news they watch is all about Biden's family and corruption. I think this is like mask science, a response to the polls and an election strategy.

 

[RDU Irish]

Lol, what isn't limited by supply chain constraints? I guess the US could have partnered closer or something but that is driven more by price of natural gas than anything. Unicorn horns are funny and all but the US has gone from no LNG exports prior to 2016 to being the projected world leader this year with 6 different export terminals. Soooo the last ten years have taken some pretty big investments. Which positions the US to continue to be a leader in exports. USA! USA! USA! Keystone is tar sands, not sure what point that is about?


The rest of your post sounds like good news for US companies? Or bad because ridiculous profits are contributing to inflation? Or something?

Exactly right - exports have increased from zero. Even with the increased exports we still have $4 nat gas in the US versus $30 in Europe and parts of Asia. If there was ample transport available those foreign prices would be cut in half and US prices higher to represent a global market for a commodity. Imagine what NG markets would look like if we hadn't built those terminals? I have no idea what the maximum LNG export capacity is (either by terminal capacity or tanker logistics) but I know it isn't enough to alleviate the shortages in Europe and Asia.

New York apparently doesn't allow pipelines to be built across state lines - thus heating costs are very different than neighboring PA who is fracks an abundant supply of NG. Distribution is not just function of the current supply chain environment - it has faced perpetual greenie weenie fight against anything fossil fuel related for decades. Keystone is just one highly correlated high profile example. Under investment in the production of essential materials and energy is coming home to roost and there is no quick fix.

Companies producing energy dependent products in US facilities are the #1 place to be invested right now IMO.

 

[drayer54]

European energy policy has been completely ridiculous. Let them have $30 gas.

Where’s the Canadian delegation on the bank account control over peaceful protestors? Trudeau is looking like Xi.

 

[irishog77]

European energy policy has been completely ridiculous. Let them have $30 gas.

Where’s the Canadian delegation on the bank account control over peaceful protestors? Trudeau is looking like Xi.

I'm still looking for that time in history a single leader (or even a body of leaders) continued giving themselves more and more power or continued to tell the populace all the reasons they needed to keep this power, and it worked out well for the populace.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Russia seems to be creating a pretext for war after shelling being reported on in Eastern Ukraine. Couple that with American diplomats being expelled and 7,000 troops being added to the border by Russia and this may happen after all.

If Russia were to invade and take Ukraine after taking Crimea, and basically get away with it from the west, you'd have to think that China would invade Taiwan soon. Nobody would stop them.

 

[Irish#1]

Russia seems to be creating a pretext for war after shelling being reported on in Eastern Ukraine. Couple that with American diplomats being expelled and 7,000 troops being added to the border by Russia and this may happen after all.

If Russia were to invade and take Ukraine after taking Crimea, and basically get away with it from the west, you'd have to think that China would invade Taiwan soon. Nobody would stop them.

Report said it was extremist backed by Russia that did the shelling on a kindergarten. They claim it was Ukraine troops that fired first, but no evidence or proof provided by Russia or the extremist to back up their claims. Weird that they expelled the second highest diplomat, but didn't provide a reason. Agree, it's just a matter of time.

 

[drayer54]

Here's a Russian Embassy Twitter account mocking Biden's Feb 16th invasion account. Hard to believe this State Department would be wrong on anything.

 

[Irishize]

Kyle Dunnigan needs much more exposure w/ his Biden impression. It’s hilarious. Even Biden fans should enjoy it…well…may not them.

 

[ulukinatme]

The fact that Kyiv has shelves stocked better than Indiana and the complete normalcy there, tells me that nobody thought it was going to happen. My Russian neighbors who lived in Soviet Ukraine for 40 ish years told me nobody they know over there thinks anything will happen and the Russian news they watch is all about Biden's family and corruption. I think this is like mask science, a response to the polls and an election strategy.

I wouldn't put it past Biden to play this up as some big win if he "negotiates" a ceasefire with Putin when the threat was being played up from the start. It would be the perfect distraction from everything else going on, and he'd wave that false flag for the next three years. It's really hard to tell what's really going on with the media in his back pocket and how much of this is true and how much is exaggeration.

If this all is the real deal, more than anything it's telling that Putin's last invasion into Crimea came during the Obama/Biden presidency and now he's rattling sabers once more with Biden as president. He doesn't fear these guys. Biden will try to put on a brave face, but if Putin was really worried about the blowback from Biden he wouldn't be treading the waters to start with.

 

[Sea Turtle]

My liberal, woke 18 year old daughter is now complaining about gas prices, inflation and even her Coverdale education fund tanking. Her mother and I had a nice conversation with her about 'why people would actually vote for Republicans and real world problems and election consequences '

When you vote republican, there are going to be things you don't like. When you vote democrat, there are going to be things you don't like. You have to figure out what's more important and affects you the most.
She's starting to understand 'life' a little more as a college freshman.

 

[TorontoGold]

My liberal, woke 18 year old daughter is now complaining about gas prices, inflation and even her Coverdale education fund tanking. Her mother and I had a nice conversation with her about 'why people would actually vote for Republicans and real world problems and election consequences '

When you vote republican, there are going to be things you don't like. When you vote democrat, there are going to be things you don't like. You have to figure out what's more important and affects you the most.
She's starting to understand 'life' a little more as a college freshman.

Should send her this article for a history lesson Stocks perform better when a Democrat is in the White House. History proves it

"Since 1945, GDP grew by an average of 4.1% under Democrats, compared with 2.5% under Republicans, according to CFRA.
Since 1945, the S&P 500 has averaged an annual gain of 11.2% during years when Democrats controlled the White House, according to CFRA Research. That's well ahead of the 6.9% average gain under Republicans."

Always good to look at the stats.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Should send her this article for a history lesson Stocks perform better when a Democrat is in the White House. History proves it

"Since 1945, GDP grew by an average of 4.1% under Democrats, compared with 2.5% under Republicans, according to CFRA.
Since 1945, the S&P 500 has averaged an annual gain of 11.2% during years when Democrats controlled the White House, according to CFRA Research. That's well ahead of the 6.9% average gain under Republicans."

Always good to look at the stats.

That's true and there is no disputing stats and facts. I'm just glad that she's asking questions and experiencing life under both parties. She now wishes we had a third party. A moderate party.

We're like 'dont we all, sweetie'. Lol

 

[TorontoGold]

That's true and there is no disputing stats and facts. I'm just glad that she's asking questions and experiencing life under both parties. She now wishes we had a third party. A moderate party.

We're like 'dont we all, sweetie'. Lol

Amen. Helping a client that run's a fashion show to explain to models that a $50 fee to apply is not "inappropriate". Some of the responses are incredible, and they think I'm some sort of neo-capitalist.

 

[irishtrooper]

Yet another argument could be more nuanced. Perhaps one could argue that policies enacted during Republican administrations cause the arrow pointing up that democrats get “credit“ for and such. Also, one might look further and look into which party controlled Congress during said prosperous periods.….. Finally, another may look into “luck” situation, such as the internet exploding during the Clinton years for example. That was happening regardless of which party controlled the White House…. In reality it likely would have been a Republican if not for Ross Perot taking a lot of votes from mostly R leaning voters. I also think the argument Nader stole votes that prevented D leaning voters is applicable too. My point is, the policies matter and the person in control sometimes inherits a terrible situation and makes it better (Reagan/Clinton). Sometimes they inherit a good situation (or one moving the right way) and it continues to improve - which Biden did, yet seems intent on ruining it by overheating the economy by overspending and myriad other issues that he’s an abject failure on handling.

 

[ulukinatme]

Should send her this article for a history lesson Stocks perform better when a Democrat is in the White House. History proves it

"Since 1945, GDP grew by an average of 4.1% under Democrats, compared with 2.5% under Republicans, according to CFRA.
Since 1945, the S&P 500 has averaged an annual gain of 11.2% during years when Democrats controlled the White House, according to CFRA Research. That's well ahead of the 6.9% average gain under Republicans."

Always good to look at the stats.

Something something Republicans Democrats are always the beneficiaries of Democrat Republican economic policies once they switch offices.

 

[TorontoGold]

Yet another argument could be more nuanced. Perhaps one could argue that policies enacted during Republican administrations cause the arrow pointing up that democrats get “credit“ for and such. Also, one might look further and look into which party controlled Congress during said prosperous periods.….. Finally, another may look into “luck” situation, such as the internet exploding during the Clinton years for example. That was happening regardless of which party controlled the White House…. In reality it likely would have been a Republican if not for Ross Perot taking a lot of votes from mostly R leaning voters. I also think the argument Nader stole votes that prevented D leaning voters is applicable too. My point is, the policies matter and the person in control sometimes inherits a terrible situation and makes it better (Reagan/Clinton). Sometimes they inherit a good situation (or one moving the right way) and it continues to improve - which Biden did, yet seems intent on ruining it by overheating the economy by overspending and myriad other issues that he’s an abject failure on handling.

That's an interesting argument - econometric studies run counter to this though https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20140913
The study does interestingly say that Dem presidents have received a boost from better oil shocks and international growth which we can agree can't be tied to Dem president which explain for 56% of the D-R growth gap....the rest of the gap is explained by factors not included in the study.

Based on the studies a Democrat in the white house has been the best for US GDP growth. It seems like they have been benefitting from taking over from a Repub that ended with a recession like 10 of the past 11 GOP presidents have had.

 

[Irish#1]

One could also say a Repub negatively benefited from the Dems fiscal policies as things corrected themselves.