A New Era in College Football

[NDohio]

Now that ND's season is completed. it is time to look ahead. I was having this discussion with my BIL (Ohio State fan) over the Holidays. We were talking about the new expectations from fan bases with the twelve team playoffs now upon us. We discussed what teams are going to have playoff expectations and what fan bases are going to be disappointed. Here is a list of teams that their fans will expect to make the playoffs every season that we came up with:

Notre Dame
Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State
USC
Washington
Oregon
Wisconsin
Georgia
Alabama
Ole Miss
LSU
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Texas
Oklahoma
Florida State
Clemson
Miami
Oklahoma State
Utah

This isn't necessary a realistic playoff bound list, but simply based on the expectations of fans. Obviously there are gonna be a lot of fan bases disappointed - some are going to be disappointed a lot of seasons.

Did we miss anybody?

Are there fan bases that shouldn't be on this list?

What 8-10 fan bases really should expect to make the playoffs on a very regular basis?

 

[NDohio]

The one conference that we struggled with is the Big Twelve. What teams will be consistently at the top of the new league?

Here are the ten teams that I felt like their fans should have playoff expectations every year:

Notre Dame
Ohio State
Michigan
Georgia
Alabama
LSU
Texas
Florida State
Clemson
Oklahoma State

 

[tussin]

Florida and Nebraska should have high expectations in a 12-team playoff era.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Florida and Nebraska should have high expectations in a 12-team playoff era.

And they will based on pride factor.

Florida can realistically go 3-9 next season, but the fact remains they are still a Tier 1 program, and the fan base’s expectations wont dip below 9-3.


Another question to consider: what programs would you confidently place in a 12 team playoff every single year, no matter what? Like, even in a down year you would think they will still make it.

That list IMO would be:

Alabama
Georgia
Ohio State


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[IrishLax]

Now that ND's season is completed. it is time to look ahead. I was having this discussion with my BIL (Ohio State fan) over the Holidays. We were talking about the new expectations from fan bases with the twelve team playoffs now upon us. We discussed what teams are going to have playoff expectations and what fan bases are going to be disappointed. Here is a list of teams that their fans will expect to make the playoffs every season that we came up with:

Notre Dame
Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State
USC
Washington
Oregon
Wisconsin
Georgia
Alabama
Ole Miss
LSU
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Texas
Oklahoma
Florida State
Clemson
Miami
Oklahoma State
Utah

This isn't necessary a realistic playoff bound list, but simply based on the expectations of fans. Obviously there are gonna be a lot of fan bases disappointed - some are going to be disappointed a lot of seasons.

Did we miss anybody?

Are there fan bases that shouldn't be on this list?

What 8-10 fan bases really should expect to make the playoffs on a very regular basis?

Add Florida, Auburn, Nebraska, Iowa, UCLA, Michigan State, and Colorado to the list of fans with “expectations” rightful or not.

It’s going to be binary pass/fail now on whether a season is “successful” based on whether you make the 12 team playoff. Most coaches at blue bloods will not survive 2 years in a row of missing the playoffs.

 

[IrishLax]

The worst jobs in CFB now are going to be the ones like Louisville, TCU, Michigan State, Pitt, and Virginia Tech. Those fan bases will want to be in the playoffs regularly and those schools have historically had periods of success. But the reality is that they are middle tier teams in their respective conferences and are unlikely to make it more than once in every 3-5 years under even the best circumstances.

Best schools are going to be true blue bloods where your roster’s talent level should be good enough that even if you stub your toe once or twice then you still have a very good opportunity to make the playoffs. Consider a school like Penn State which went 0-3 against schools with a pulse and otherwise played cupcakes… still finished regular season top 10 and will finish in the top 15 of final polls.

 

[NDohio]

Some interesting additions:

Notre Dame - YES
Ohio State - YES
Michigan - YES
Penn State - Bubble
USC - Bubble
Washington - Bubble
Oregon - Bubble
Wisconsin - No
Nebraska - Absolutely no
Iowa - What are they thinking
UCLA - No
Michigan State - No
Georgia - Yes
Alabama - Yes
Ole Miss - Bubble
LSU - Yes
Tennessee - Bubble
Florida - Not in their current state
Auburn - No
Texas A&M - Absolutely no
Texas - Yes
Oklahoma - Bubble
Florida State - Yes
Clemson - Yes
Miami - No
Oklahoma State - Yes
Utah - Bubble
Colorado - LOL

 

[IrishSteelhead]

The worst jobs in CFB now are going to be the ones like Louisville, TCU, Michigan State, Pitt, and Virginia Tech. Those fan bases will want to be in the playoffs regularly and those schools have historically had periods of success. But the reality is that they are middle tier teams in their respective conferences and are unlikely to make it more than once in every 3-5 years under even the best circumstances.

Best schools are going to be true blue bloods where your roster’s talent level should be good enough that even if you stub your toe once or twice then you still have a very good opportunity to make the playoffs. Consider a school like Penn State which went 0-3 against schools with a pulse and otherwise played cupcakes… still finished regular season top 10 and will finish in the top 15 of final polls.

I would think 12 teams will encourage more ambitious scheduling, knowing you get a mulligan now. We should see some pretty good non-conference matchups coming up in the next decade.

I wish everyone boycotted the idea of neutral site bangers though. Alabama going to the Shoe would generate much more buzz than them meeting Ohio State at Jerry World or The Georgia Dome.


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[Te'o4Heisman]

The one conference that we struggled with is the Big Twelve. What teams will be consistently at the top of the new league?

Here are the ten teams that I felt like their fans should have playoff expectations every year:

Notre Dame
Ohio State
Michigan
Georgia
Alabama
LSU
Texas
Florida State
Clemson
Oklahoma State

OU and Oregon should be included based on the last 20 years

 

[Lberry]

Have a feeling Nebraska is going to come back much better than people expect. A sleeping giant with the best, most dedicated fans in CFB, a real coach, and have shown signs they're clearly in the NIL game.

 

[NDohio]

NIL, transfer portal, new conferences, new playoffs - it's gonna be really interesting to see how teams respond to not making the playoffs. I agree that there will be some teams that will have some crazy expectations. I had thought about Missouri, too. They had a great season for them and will that become the expectation going forward?

 

[NDohio]

OU and Oregon should be included based on the last 20 years

I thought that both those teams will probably have their fan bases have those expectations, but each of them are going to be hurt by their new conference affiliations. You are probably correct though.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Have a feeling Nebraska is going to come back much better than people expect. A sleeping giant with the best, most dedicated fans in CFB, a real coach, and have shown signs they're clearly in the NIL game.

The B1G move and the modern era really screwed them. They lost their recruiting footprint making the jump, and now everyone has training tables and other state of the art at the time features they had long ago.


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[Irish du Nord]

Have a feeling Nebraska is going to come back much better than people expect. A sleeping giant with the best, most dedicated fans in CFB, a real coach, and have shown signs they're clearly in the NIL game.

The most self-congratulatory fans in CFB is more like it. They haven’t had a winning record since 2016 and their fans aren’t anything special.

 

[IrishLax]

The best thing about the new era of CFB is that NIL money is all above board and it's immediately diluting the "concentration" of talent in the 3-5 schools that were the best at cheating // most willing to cheat.

 

[domer13]

Did we miss anybody?

Are there fan bases that shouldn't be on this list?

What 8-10 fan bases really should expect to make the playoffs on a very regular basis?

Liberty

 

[Old Man Mike]

Random opinion: probably a year (or two?) too soon, but I'd guess that TA&M is not only going to expect to be in 12 game playoffs every year, but will spend like crazy to get there. In my opinion, nothing would surprise me even this coming year. That's because I believe Mike Elko to be a "boggling good" football coach. I'm not sure what is beyond his ability to squeeze the best out of teams. The coming of Texas into the SEC will hyper-motivate the A&M money people to be even crazier than usual, since they hate Texas so much. Recruiting should be all out war. A&Ms current HS class is small in numbers, but #6 in average player star-rating count. They blew it to Kelly on a MAJOR DLineman, so they can't be doing that, but I'd bet NIL etc monies flow like a torrent.

On a different, equally ignorant, topic: I'd expect next year's 12 teams to be 4 SEC, 3 B1G, two other champs, one "little", Notre Dame, and a violent controversy about team #12. The SECs will be an angry GA, a better AL, TX, and one of OK, MS, or LSU. The B1Gs will be a Harbaugh-less MI, an always there regardless OSU, and an over-all O-weaker but team-better USC (due to the head coach). Clemson will return and who knows about the Big12 champ --- could almost literally be anyone. Some "little" program but who ... ?, Notre Dame, who surprisingly due to great defense, turns out to be the best "Northern" team due to slippages in teams elsewhere. That's eleven. Screaming and cursing will surround the other two SEC teams (who probably deserve a spot, but do you want FIVE of them in?) OR and WA can't put their offenses back together at the high levels. PSU is PSU --- can't score on anyone. FSU partly disintegrates. Utah? Missouri? ... really? FIVE SECs? Thankfully no one will remember this in eleven months.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

The best thing about the new era of CFB is that NIL money is all above board and it's immediately diluting the "concentration" of talent in the 3-5 schools that were the best at cheating // most willing to cheat.

I really do believe this is the great equalizer more than anything, and you are also correct that the jobs at the fringe P4 programs are going to be the worst going forward. My hope is that this dilution can even things out to the point that the development of three star players becomes that much more valuable.

I also think that the high pressure recruiter types in the Urban Meyer type of way also lose out big time on this. I believe now more than ever that Meyer is going to stay away for good with this landscape now being what it is. His shenanigans won't cut it in today's market.

 

[Lberry]

The most self-congratulatory fans in CFB is more like it. They haven’t had a winning record since 2016 and their fans aren’t anything special.

Not sure how you can say that. Despite not being good for decades, their fans sell out their stadium every week during that time. Their fans are very special IMO.

 

[bobbyok1]

The best thing about the new era of CFB is that NIL money is all above board and it's immediately diluting the "concentration" of talent in the 3-5 schools that were the best at cheating // most willing to cheat.

For all of the crazy that the NIL has injected into College Footballs veins, this is one of BIGGEST benefits to the sport.

Now if we can only find a way to secure players actually doing legitimate coursework and receiving legit degrees across CFB we'll be all set.

 

[MNIrishman]

The worst jobs in CFB now are going to be the ones like Louisville, TCU, Michigan State, Pitt, and Virginia Tech. Those fan bases will want to be in the playoffs regularly and those schools have historically had periods of success. But the reality is that they are middle tier teams in their respective conferences and are unlikely to make it more than once in every 3-5 years under even the best circumstances.

Best schools are going to be true blue bloods where your roster’s talent level should be good enough that even if you stub your toe once or twice then you still have a very good opportunity to make the playoffs. Consider a school like Penn State which went 0-3 against schools with a pulse and otherwise played cupcakes… still finished regular season top 10 and will finish in the top 15 of final polls.

Add A&M to the worst job list --- historically a .60 win percentage team identical to MSU, but a fan base that sees themselves as something other than Texas' little brother and Alabama/LSU's warmup.

 

[forkbeard3777]

Now that ND's season is completed. it is time to look ahead. I was having this discussion with my BIL (Ohio State fan) over the Holidays. We were talking about the new expectations from fan bases with the twelve team playoffs now upon us. We discussed what teams are going to have playoff expectations and what fan bases are going to be disappointed. Here is a list of teams that their fans will expect to make the playoffs every season that we came up with:

Notre Dame
Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State
USC
Washington
Oregon
Wisconsin
Georgia
Alabama
Ole Miss
LSU
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Texas
Oklahoma
Florida State
Clemson
Miami
Oklahoma State
Utah

This isn't necessary a realistic playoff bound list, but simply based on the expectations of fans. Obviously there are gonna be a lot of fan bases disappointed - some are going to be disappointed a lot of seasons.

Did we miss anybody?

Are there fan bases that shouldn't be on this list?

What 8-10 fan bases really should expect to make the playoffs on a very regular basis?

I think it's fair to say that the NC winners in the past couple of decades and the teams that have made Playoffs (with some obvious exceptions) should "expect" to make them on a consistent basis.

So:

Alabama
Auburn
Georgia
LSU
Florida
Texas
Oklahoma
Ohio State
USC
Florida State
Clemson
Michigan
Washington
Oregon
Notre Dame

Maybe Penn State, Tennessee, Wisconsin, USC on some random years...but that should pretty much do it.

 

[jspags10pg]

I bet there will be a few year stretch, in the not-too-distant future, where no one will expect Michigan to be in the playoffs. Not even their own fans.

 

[Irish#1]

Going off history, these are the schools that realistically should be in the 12 every year.

Alabama
Georgia
LSU
Texas
Oklahoma
Ohio State
USC
Florida State
Michigan
Oregon
Notre Dame
Utah

The following might get an occasional sniff, but not consistently
Clemson
FSU
Miami
Florida
Auburn
Tenn
A&M

 

[Giddyup]

Ah we went 8-4, 9-3 the last two years. I love our current trajectory but let’s just hope we get in 75% of the time as things stand now.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

Going off history, these are the schools that realistically should be in the 12 every year.

Alabama
Georgia
LSU
Texas
Oklahoma
Ohio State
USC
Florida State
Michigan
Oregon
Notre Dame
Utah

The following might get an occasional sniff, but not consistently
Clemson
FSU
Miami
Florida
Auburn
Tenn
A&M

Just curious where you actually have FSU slotted since they are listed on both.

If College Football has been anything, it's been cyclical in nature. To think where Miami, Nebraska and Florida State were during my formative years versus now. Then you had USC and Texas in the era that followed. Now we're in the SEC Era.

Hard to say what could be coming next. I think we may end up surprised.

 

[calvegas04]

Fsu? Nope

 

[NDohio]

Fsu? Nope

There will be an ACC champion in the playoffs every year. Who else ya got?

 

[calvegas04]

There will be an ACC champion in the playoffs every year. Who else ya got?

Clemson will be back on top of the ACC, fsu won't be able to handle cal and stanford

 

[tussin]

Going off history, these are the schools that realistically should be in the 12 every year.

Alabama
Georgia
LSU
Texas
Oklahoma
Ohio State
USC
Florida State
Michigan
Oregon
Notre Dame
Utah

The following might get an occasional sniff, but not consistently
Clemson
FSU
Miami
Florida
Auburn
Tenn
A&M

This list is silly. No one besides Bama, Georgia, and OSU should have "realistic" expectations to be in every year.

And OSU may be on their way out. CFB is a dynastic sport and only 2-3 programs should have those expectations annually.