2025 College Football Playoffs

Kingbish01

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I disagree. I would think GA takes a nose dive in that scenario, past committee history notwithstanding.
I stand by 0% chance UGA tumbles to 9/10 regardless of what happens in that game. 2 losses to the SEC champ, 1 by 3 points. They are easily, and I mean easily ranked the highest 2 loss team.
 

IrishLax

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what is no bueno is it continues to decline. Like routinely decline since last Saturday night.
Luckily that's because people are hammering ND to miss / Miami to make it (I was one of them)... it's not because of new information. When there is new information you will see a drastic, inexplicable movement in the odds like when Bama brazenly shot up to -3000 after beating Auburn and despite ND still being above them in the polls. This is a drip drip drip.

We'll know what's going to happen at least half a day before it's "announced" but yeah I don't see ND getting in. Is what it is, but the coordinated media blitz with political lobbying is going to be too much to overcome IMO. These guys are pawns, it's not 12 Angry Men in there.
 

IrishLax

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Also, Notre Dame is still at 80% on Polymarket and has been pretty static since Tuesday. Miami is "up" a good amount in the same span, but just overall the market has not flipped on ND to be "most likely out in favor of Miami."
 

Kingbish01

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Also, Notre Dame is still at 80% on Polymarket and has been pretty static since Tuesday. Miami is "up" a good amount in the same span, but just overall the market has not flipped on ND to be "most likely out in favor of Miami."
Because even with the H2H ND is in a much better spot than Miami. ND is definitely the horse you want in this race.
 

EvilleIrish

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Luckily that's because people are hammering ND to miss / Miami to make it (I was one of them)... it's not because of new information. When there is new information you will see a drastic, inexplicable movement in the odds like when Bama brazenly shot up to -3000 after beating Auburn and despite ND still being above them in the polls. This is a drip drip drip.

We'll know what's going to happen at least half a day before it's "announced" but yeah I don't see ND getting in. Is what it is, but the coordinated media blitz with political lobbying is going to be too much to overcome IMO. These guys are pawns, it's not 12 Angry Men in there.
I've noticed with FanDuel that the playoff odds will swing wildly while actual games are going on. Will be interesting to watch them during the Tech/BYU game.
 

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Is there anyone here who can put together a new rankings system that basically does the BCS model w/ weighted data but also add a weighting number for Jamie U's metrics for championship caliber teams? ND checks 6 of his 8 boxes. BYU checks zero. Miami checks 4 i think. Bama checks 2, if memory serves me from their recent podcast. I'd be curious if combining these data points and putting a weight on a combined "box checking" metric would move the needle on some of these teams. Jamie and Greg basically lay out an argument for why ND should be over OU, Bama, BYU, and Miami....all by mathing the math.

Basically ND, IU, Oregon are the only teams who checked 6+ boxes. OSU was at 5.
This is what I came up with based on someone asking a similar thing over on Reddit.
CsXNzgZ.jpeg
 

Wild Bill

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I'd say zero % chance the Dawgs drop behind ND even if Bama beat them 56-3 furthest IMO would be 5/6 right in front of Ole Miss.
Agreed, I think they drop to 5 if Texas Tech wins and 4 if tech loses.

Bama getting throttled may be more helpful for the purposes of getting in, but if we assume ND is in with a BYU loss, bama beating Georgia may give ND the best path. Drops Ole Miss down so we get them in a 7 vs 10 first round, and then it will probably be Texas Tech in the second round, assuming the jump Georgia and the BIG loser.
 

Kingbish01

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Agreed, I think they drop to 5 if Texas Tech wins and 4 if tech loses.

Bama getting throttled may be more helpful for the purposes of getting in, but if we assume ND is in with a BYU loss, bama beating Georgia may give ND the best path. Drops Ole Miss down so we get them in a 7 vs 10 first round, and then it will probably be Texas Tech in the second round, assuming the jump Georgia and the BIG loser.
That's a good angle I haven't thought of. Hard to think Bama losing and potentially by double digits isn't our best path. But I feel a tad less stressed about the UGA game now..ha
 

jprue24

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We'll know what's going to happen at least half a day before it's "announced" but yeah I don't see ND getting in. Is what it is, but the coordinated media blitz with political lobbying is going to be too much to overcome IMO. These guys are pawns, it's not 12 Angry Men in there.
It's announced like 12 hours after the last ccg, no? Would I be wrong to guess action would begin during the Big12 ccg and be fully cranked up by the time the SEC ccg is decided (not over)?
 

Irish#1

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I don't agree with that. The football playoff is much smaller than the basketball tournament, relative to the number of teams.

Football has 12 teams among 136 FBS teams. So 9%.
Basketball has 68 teams among 363 D1 programs. So 19%.

If we had 19% of FBS teams in the playoff (26) letting the G5 teams get an auto-bid is less of an issue.
You need to ensure you get the teams capable of winning a NC in the field. With college basketball the National championship 90% of the time comes from first 3 seeds (12 teams), and 95% of the time from the top 4 seeds (16 teams). You need to ensure your system gets those top 12-16 teams in. March madness does that. The march madness argument of who gets left out is amongst teams that have 0% chance of winning. Now, there's things march madness can improve on IMO especially with the last 15-20 teams in but that doesn't have much of an impact on who wins it all.

College football is still broken, ND is what, 4th most likely to win it all and may be left out of a 12 team playoff. Absolutely criminal
You really can't compare the two. In the NCAA, It's not the destination, it's the journey. Most of those schools know they aren't going to win and are just happy to be in the tournament. Don't get me wrong, they will play to win and hope they can be one of those that gets hot and makes a little run or just pulls an upset.

If the CFP expands it won't be by much simply due to the fact that you can only play one game a week.
 

T-Boone

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I am looking forward to watching some games this weekend with nothing but hatred (my preferred sports spectator setting) but I already know I'll get 5 minutes into most of these games and be flabbergasted by the low standard and get bored and turn off. Duke v Virginia is the prime candidate for this.
 

IrishSteelhead

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$20 says the committee is all lighting candles for BYU, hoping they can put a nice little bow on the final 12 and call it a day without any serious debate.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Huntr

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Great that we have national media saying power ratings aren’t a sign of the season we’ve put together when that’s exactly what they are by this point of the season.
Mandel knows jack shit despite having covered the game for like 20 years

He knows SP+ is predictive and assumes the others are. He's in over his head if he's not talking about a game he directly watched happen.
 

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The playoff rules say that the 6 highest ranked conference champions get auto bids. What happens if Troy, Boise, and Duke win though? The Committee only ranks 25 teams. What happens if there legitimately isn't 6 ranked conference winners?

Idiot
 
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Kingbish01

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The playoff rules say that the 6 highest ranked conference champions get auto bids. What happens if Troy, Boise, and Duke win though? The Committee only ranks 25 teams. What happens if there legitimately isn't 6 ranked conference winners?
The selection committee will extend the top 25 to rank enough teams to get 6 conference champs. We see the top 25 after that, they privately rank them.
 

Rudy89

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Great that we have national media saying power ratings aren’t a sign of the season we’ve put together when that’s exactly what they are by this point of the season.
Everything is a viable and legit way of looking at a team until it shows ND as being good.
Then all of the sudden it’s flawed.
 

Kingbish01

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PS...that was all chatgpt see below:

Great question. This is one of the strangest and least-talked-about edge cases in the new 12-team playoff format, and you are exactly right to notice it.

Here is the clean answer.


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✅ What the rule actually says

The CFP rules specify:

The six highest-ranked conference champions get automatic bids.

The key phrase is highest-ranked, meaning ranked by the CFP selection committee.

The committee only produces a Top 25, but the rules do not guarantee that all conference champions must be ranked.


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✅ So what happens if Troy, Boise State, and Duke win their conferences and the committee refuses to rank them?

The CFP cannot have fewer than 6 auto bids.

So here is the important rule built into the system:

✔️ If fewer than six conference champions appear in the Top 25, the committee MUST extend the rankings beyond 25

until six conference champions are assigned an order.

The committee is not allowed to say:

> “Only four conference champions are ranked, so we only have four auto bids.”



That would break the format.

They must select six, even if it means ranking teams in positions 26, 27, 28, etc., internally.

These extended rankings are not published, but they absolutely exist.


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🧩 Why we know this is the rule

The CFP Manual explains the following principle:

> The selection committee will rank enough teams to determine the six highest conference champions and the next highest at-large teams.



Which means:

✔️ The public sees a Top 25 only

✔️ The committee privately ranks additional teams as needed

✔️ They do this in any situation where championships or at-large spots require it

They used this same mechanism during the four-team era, when determining replacement teams for New Year's Six bowls.


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📌 Scenario: Troy, Boise, and Duke win titles

If this happens:

Troy would be the Sun Belt champion

Boise State would likely be the Mountain West champion

Duke would be the ACC champion with a big upset


Depending on other champs (Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, Pac-12, AAC), the committee would need to identify six of them in ranked order.

If they only had, say, four champs inside the public Top 25, the committee would:

➤ Internally rank champions 26 and 27

➤ Use those positions to assign automatic bids

➤ Publish only the Top 25 to the public

➤ Release a bracket where those champs appear as auto bids even without a public ranking

This is exactly how the system is designed.


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🟦 So the real answer is:

⭐ The committee will ALWAYS produce six ranked conference champions

even if they have to “rank” teams outside of the publicly released Top 25.

⭐ Those private rankings will determine auto bids

even though you will never see them printed.


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💬 If you want, I can break down:

How Troy, Boise, or Duke winning would change the entire CFP bracket

Which big teams would get squeezed out

What it does for Notre Dame

How the at-large order shifts in that scenario


Just tell me which direction you want to take it.
 

IRISHDODGER

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ND is looking less likely to get in. This week it was evident that the CFP was going to ensure Bama didn’t get left out two years in a row. Whether they were “encouraged” via back channels no one will ever know but come on…

Honestly, why spend all this money for travel/lodging to Grapevine, TX if we’re basically getting the AP poll? Get rid of the committee and go to all the metrics (SP+, FEI, Sagarin, Etc) that already leave out the biases of the polls?

IF ND gets left out, I’d be fine w/ them taking the rest of the year off and declining a bowl invite. No one gives two shits about the non-CFP bowls other than sponsors & media. ND & most teams would likely incur a net loss after factoring in travel. The players get paid now so they‘re not going to miss out on a free Fossil Watch or a PS5. Nobody attends the games other than corporate dolts & family members of players. Any draft eligible player will justifiably opt out. The remaining starters would be susceptible to injury in what amounts to an exhibition game that just happens to count in their final record. Zero sense.
 

Bane

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Something that just hit me. If Bama wins and the committee feels the need to have a buffer between ND and Miami and still want them in, drop Georgia to 10. They remain in the playoff, haven’t played TAMU and you can easily cite their game control for the reasoning
If you thought Miami, Texas, BYU, or Bama fans (last year) are whiny, you ain't seen nothing yet if UGA loses in Atlanta and gets dropped out of a hosting spot.
 
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