2020 Elections

[drayer54]

Uhhhh yeah... there is a big difference. You act like he spoke at the funeral of some KKK head honcho, when in reality he and a bunch of other people spoke at Senator Byrd’s funeral. Senator Byrd is famous for RENOUNCING his ties to the KKK and supporting civil rights. He was a conservative person from West Virginia but aligned Democrat because he was pro-worker and pro-union. Anyways, this is what the NAACP said after his passing:

So yeah, shame on Biden and the NAACP for talking positively about a guy with decades of public service doing the right thing after taking the wrong path in his youth. I guess “Joe Biden and other leaders spoke at the funeral of a prominent Senator” doesn’t play to the sheep though.

My point wasn’t to argue that Biden is an old racist. I think that is well established.

My point was to point out completely absurd the AP fact check was.

 

[ACamp1900]

My point wasn’t to argue that Biden is an old racist. I think that is well established.

My point was to point out completely absurd the AP fact check was.

Republican says anything,... fact check: Nazi racist confirmed.
Democrat has verifiable ties to the KKK, says verifiably racist shit, does overly racist crap in front of a camera,..... nuance is needed,... confirmation: Republicans are racist

 

[NEIIrish]

Republican says anything,... fact check: Nazi racist confirmed.
Democrat has verifiable ties to the KKK, says verifiably racist shit, does overly racist crap in front of a camera,..... nuance is needed,... confirmation: Republicans are racist

The water has to be carried regardless....

 

[drayer54]

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette endorsed Donald Trump for re-election this weekend, their first GOP Presidential endorsement since 1972.

Agree or disagree, this editorial is a good counterpoint to the conventional wisdom that's out there about the election on Tuesday.


https://www.post-gazette.com/opinio...al-candidate-endorsement/stories/202010310021


“ Donald Trump is not Churchill, to be sure, but he gets things done.”

“ But the Biden-Harris ticket offers us higher taxes and a nanny state that will bow to the bullies and the woke who would tear down history rather than learning from history and building up the country.

It offers an end to fracking and other Cuckoo California dreams that will cost the economy and the people who most need work right now. “Good-paying green jobs” are probably not jobs for Pittsburgh, or Cleveland, or Toledo, or Youngstown.

It offers softness on China, which Mr. Trump understands is our enemy.

Mr. Biden is too old for the job, and fragile. There is a very real chance he will not make it through the term. Mr. Trump is also too old but seemingly robust. But in Mike Pence, Mr. Trump has a vice president ready to take over, if need be. He is a safe pair of hands. Sen. Kamala Harris gives no evidence of being ready to be president.

This newspaper has not supported a Republican for president since 1972. But we believe Mr. Trump, for all his faults, is the better choice this year. We respect and understand those who feel otherwise. We wish that we could be more enthusiastic and we hope the president can become more dignified and statesmanlike. Each American must make up his or her own mind and do what he or she thinks is best for the community and the republic. Vote your conscience. And, whatever happens, believe in the country.‘

 

[Irish YJ]

WTF is wrong with people.

Perhaps someone should tweet back pics of burnt out stores from libs compared to Aleppo, or blacked masked Antifa lol...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">See the difference? Me neither. <a href="https://t.co/vRkGJOoyZ9">pic.twitter.com/vRkGJOoyZ9</a></p>— Renée Graham ️* (@reneeygraham) <a href="https://twitter.com/reneeygraham/status/1322586265850728457?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 31, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Irish YJ]

LOL

<iframe width="500" height="280" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Nw63Trv0hxg" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This "Eagles" jacket Biden claims he's wearing to try and show how much he's in touch with Pennsylvania?<br><br>It's a Delaware Blue Hens jacket <a href="https://t.co/4AUx2lj0Nu">pic.twitter.com/4AUx2lj0Nu</a></p>— Zach Parkinson (@AZachParkinson) <a href="https://twitter.com/AZachParkinson/status/1323018859301974017?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 1, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[TorontoGold]

LOL

<iframe width="500" height="280" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Nw63Trv0hxg" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This "Eagles" jacket Biden claims he's wearing to try and show how much he's in touch with Pennsylvania?<br><br>It's a Delaware Blue Hens jacket <a href="https://t.co/4AUx2lj0Nu">pic.twitter.com/4AUx2lj0Nu</a></p>— Zach Parkinson (@AZachParkinson) <a href="https://twitter.com/AZachParkinson/status/1323018859301974017?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 1, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Irish YJ]

 

[NorthDakota]

LOL

<iframe width="500" height="280" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Nw63Trv0hxg" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This "Eagles" jacket Biden claims he's wearing to try and show how much he's in touch with Pennsylvania?<br><br>It's a Delaware Blue Hens jacket <a href="https://t.co/4AUx2lj0Nu">pic.twitter.com/4AUx2lj0Nu</a></p>— Zach Parkinson (@AZachParkinson) <a href="https://twitter.com/AZachParkinson/status/1323018859301974017?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 1, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

If Biden wins its gonna be COVFEFE on a daily basis lol. Between his s-s-s-s-stutter and his brain being eaten by worms it would make for great tv lol

 

[Irish YJ]

If Biden wins its gonna be COVFEFE on a daily basis lol. Between his s-s-s-s-stutter and his brain being eaten by worms it would make for great tv lol

My fear is

 

[Irish#1]

The wife and I came upon a Trump caravan yesterday. I would guess it stretched about 5 miles long. The were circling I-465. I didn't count the vehicles, but the number of them and the length of the caravan was pretty impressive. A number of people on the overpasses waving at them.

I still have no idea who is going to win, but if these supporters are an indication of their intent to vote Trump may run away with this.

 

[RDU Irish]

lol check at 18 seconds, very normal

Check again - who was in the other person's lane, i.e. initiating contact? Not the big black truck.

Funny civil disobedience at best - absolutely insane to see libs calling this some violent assault on society while they celebrate burning down businesses in every urban dem haven.

 

[IrishLax]

The wife and I came upon a Trump caravan yesterday. I would guess it stretched about 5 miles long. The were circling I-465. I didn't count the vehicles, but the number of them and the length of the caravan was pretty impressive. A number of people on the overpasses waving at them.

I still have no idea who is going to win, but if these supporters are an indication of their intent to vote Trump may run away with this.

There's some info out there that the rallies and clogging traffic and everything else is actually driving down numbers in the areas where it's occurring not up. I think Trump very well may win, but it will be by razor thin margins in a couple key states and while losing the popular vote by millions.

I posted on here four years ago that I spent the weekend before the election with a bunch of GOP friends at a winery including someone working on Trump's campaign overseeing 5 states. He ended up going on to be a political appointee in the Department of Energy after they won. I also had a friend working for Clinton that was 100% sure they were going to win and knew what his role in the administration was going to be and literally uprooted his life after they lost. Ended up packing his bags, leaving DC, and starting over. His emotional state I would best describe is ND fans after the Denard Robinson "Under the Lights" game. I don't know anyone working directly on either campaign this year, but I do know some still involved (tangentially or directly) in GOP politics and this is gist of what I've heard.
1. The internal polls for Trump were much better in 2016 than they are in 2020, BUT...
2. That's not true for every state. Specifically, Florida. They expect to win Florida by a couple points. They also aren't worried at all about Ohio.
3. They expect to lose the popular vote by 2-5 points, not the ~8 points shown in the polls. They think that votes getting thrown out for various reasons buys them 1-3 points. They also think the increased turnout in battleground states give them a couple points.
4. They don't really believe in the "shy" Trump voter. They said the "silent majority" this time around is basically old people trapped in nursing homes and off social media, and millennials without strong affinity for either candidate. "Middle aged white people have never been louder than in 2020."
5. They are cautiously optimistic that Trump wins because of turnout and other factors. COVID cases spiking makes it disproportionately unlikely that Biden voters will go to the polls tomorrow. They expect to gain a couple points on ballots getting thrown out for being completed incorrectly. They've been canvassing for a long time while Biden hasn't. They think they have avenues to get votes thrown out in the courts in close races. The mail delays help them. Etc. Etc. There are about a dozen factors that lead them to believe they will outperform their polls, but none of them are simply the fact that the polls are "wrong" this time.
6. They don't give a shit about anything other than Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina. "If we lose Georgia or Iowa, that means it was already a blowout and it doesn't matter. There is no scenario where they win Iowa but lose Pennsylvania."
7. Most were not a fan of the efforts to invalidate legitimate ballots or declare victory before all the votes are counted. Others said it's "win by any means necessary" and that people will "get over it." Some said if Trump doesn't win, they hope its a blowout because a tight Biden win is going to be a shit show.

I'm personally of the belief that the odds are in Biden's favor, but I think it's VERY easy to see a path to Trump victory and the 2-to-1 betting odds are likely closer to reality than the analytical models.

 

[NorthDakota]

There's some info out there that the rallies and clogging traffic and everything else is actually driving down numbers in the areas where it's occurring not up. I think Trump very well may win, but it will be by razor thin margins in a couple key states and while losing the popular vote by millions.

I posted on here four years ago that I spent the weekend before the election with a bunch of GOP friends at a winery including someone working on Trump's campaign overseeing 5 states. He ended up going on to be a political appointee in the Department of Energy after they won. I also had a friend working for Clinton that was 100% sure they were going to win and knew what his role in the administration was going to be and literally uprooted his life after they lost. Ended up packing his bags, leaving DC, and starting over. His emotional state I would best describe is ND fans after the Denard Robinson "Under the Lights" game. I don't know anyone working directly on either campaign this year, but I do know some still involved (tangentially or directly) in GOP politics and this is gist of what I've heard.
1. The internal polls for Trump were much better in 2016 than they are in 2020, BUT...
2. That's not true for every state. Specifically, Florida. They expect to win Florida by a couple points. They also aren't worried at all about Ohio.
3. They expect to lose the popular vote by 2-5 points, not the ~8 points shown in the polls. They think that votes getting thrown out for various reasons buys them 1-3 points. They also think the increased turnout in battleground states give them a couple points.
4. They don't really believe in the "shy" Trump voter. They said the "silent majority" this time around is basically old people trapped in nursing homes and off social media, and millennials without strong affinity for either candidate. "Middle aged white people have never been louder than in 2020."
5. They are cautiously optimistic that Trump wins because of turnout and other factors. COVID cases spiking makes it disproportionately unlikely that Biden voters will go to the polls tomorrow. They expect to gain a couple points on ballots getting thrown out for being completed incorrectly. They've been canvassing for a long time while Biden hasn't. They think they have avenues to get votes thrown out in the courts in close races. The mail delays help them. Etc. Etc. There are about a dozen factors that lead them to believe they will outperform their polls, but none of them are simply the fact that the polls are "wrong" this time.
6. They don't give a shit about anything other than Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina. "If we lose Georgia or Iowa, that means it was already a blowout and it doesn't matter. There is no scenario where they win Iowa but lose Pennsylvania."
7. Most were not a fan of the efforts to invalidate legitimate ballots or declare victory before all the votes are counted. Others said it's "win by any means necessary" and that people will "get over it." Some said if Trump doesn't win, they hope its a blowout because a tight Biden win is going to be a shit show.

I'm personally of the belief that the odds are in Biden's favor, but I think it's VERY easy to see a path to Trump victory and the 2-to-1 betting odds are likely closer to reality than the analytical models.

Great post.

This is a goofy election in a million different ways (covid, Donald, mail-in, etc) so nothing will really surprise me.

This is a land of wolves now. Both parties are too far in opposition now. I think it'll get ugly.

 

[TorontoGold]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">One of the most reliable Wall Street indicators is pointing to a Biden win.<br><br>S&P 500 closing level on:<br>July 31: 3,271.12<br>Oct 30: 3,269.96<br><br>When the stock market falls in that 3 month stretch, the incumbent almost always loses. <br><br>(This metric also predicted Trump's 2016 win) <a href="https://t.co/JYpaOTwPfc">pic.twitter.com/JYpaOTwPfc</a></p>— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) <a href="https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1323302119961694213?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

FWIW a couple clients who are hedge funds/asset managers on Bay Street (our version of Wall Street but for the TSX) have kept a lot of powder dry for the fallout of the election. Most of their models have accounted for an unstable Biden win.

 

[RDU Irish]

There's some info out there that the rallies and clogging traffic and everything else is actually driving down numbers in the areas where it's occurring not up. I think Trump very well may win, but it will be by razor thin margins in a couple key states and while losing the popular vote by millions.

I posted on here four years ago that I spent the weekend before the election with a bunch of GOP friends at a winery including someone working on Trump's campaign overseeing 5 states. He ended up going on to be a political appointee in the Department of Energy after they won. I also had a friend working for Clinton that was 100% sure they were going to win and knew what his role in the administration was going to be and literally uprooted his life after they lost. Ended up packing his bags, leaving DC, and starting over. His emotional state I would best describe is ND fans after the Denard Robinson "Under the Lights" game. I don't know anyone working directly on either campaign this year, but I do know some still involved (tangentially or directly) in GOP politics and this is gist of what I've heard.
1. The internal polls for Trump were much better in 2016 than they are in 2020, BUT...
2. That's not true for every state. Specifically, Florida. They expect to win Florida by a couple points. They also aren't worried at all about Ohio.
3. They expect to lose the popular vote by 2-5 points, not the ~8 points shown in the polls. They think that votes getting thrown out for various reasons buys them 1-3 points. They also think the increased turnout in battleground states give them a couple points.
4. They don't really believe in the "shy" Trump voter. They said the "silent majority" this time around is basically old people trapped in nursing homes and off social media, and millennials without strong affinity for either candidate. "Middle aged white people have never been louder than in 2020."
5. They are cautiously optimistic that Trump wins because of turnout and other factors. COVID cases spiking makes it disproportionately unlikely that Biden voters will go to the polls tomorrow. They expect to gain a couple points on ballots getting thrown out for being completed incorrectly. They've been canvassing for a long time while Biden hasn't. They think they have avenues to get votes thrown out in the courts in close races. The mail delays help them. Etc. Etc. There are about a dozen factors that lead them to believe they will outperform their polls, but none of them are simply the fact that the polls are "wrong" this time.
6. They don't give a shit about anything other than Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina. "If we lose Georgia or Iowa, that means it was already a blowout and it doesn't matter. There is no scenario where they win Iowa but lose Pennsylvania."
7. Most were not a fan of the efforts to invalidate legitimate ballots or declare victory before all the votes are counted. Others said it's "win by any means necessary" and that people will "get over it." Some said if Trump doesn't win, they hope its a blowout because a tight Biden win is going to be a shit show.

I'm personally of the belief that the odds are in Biden's favor, but I think it's VERY easy to see a path to Trump victory and the 2-to-1 betting odds are likely closer to reality than the analytical models.

I think the silent support is higher - threats of physical violence, socially ostracized, professionally doxed and destroyed.... Only a few people really feared Hillary literally killing them, this is more grassroots level of threats. Anyone tries to poll me and I am telling them to GFY. Trump supporters knock on our door, we tell them to GFY. I won't post anything remotely political that has my name attached.

I don't see the reliance on Arizona - I think that is one of the first to fall given their love for RINOs and Trump doing much better with communist hating hispanics that are less predominant out west. I think he has a better shot in Michigan and maybe WI than AZ.

I think Trump has FL/PA locked up (I mean Philly could have 150% votes more than registered voters). He loses either of those and he is toast, IMO. Yeah there is a path but I don't see it happening. If he loses PA after Joe declared a war on fracking and we all get to go to bed early and sell our oil stocks first thing in the AM.

Toss ups : NM/MN/AZ/WI/MI/IA/NC/GA in about that order of leaning D to R (IMO) - add in those solo EVs in NE and ME too. This puts Joe at 217 and Trump at 230 and 91 in the middle. Is is possible riots put MN in play? If so WI can't be far behind. Will fracking ban deliver NM to Trump on PA coattails? NC/GA are interesting - yes the rust belt can bail him out if he loses one or both, however I think that is a sign of lower support everywhere that will not be enough to win.

 

[RDU Irish]

Anyone seen a more comprehensive look at polls that include Jorgensen vs those that don't? Seems like Trump does much better in those North Carolina polls, wondering if that is consistent elsewhere.

 

[ulukinatme]

There's some info out there that the rallies and clogging traffic and everything else is actually driving down numbers in the areas where it's occurring not up. I think Trump very well may win, but it will be by razor thin margins in a couple key states and while losing the popular vote by millions.

I posted on here four years ago that I spent the weekend before the election with a bunch of GOP friends at a winery including someone working on Trump's campaign overseeing 5 states. He ended up going on to be a political appointee in the Department of Energy after they won. I also had a friend working for Clinton that was 100% sure they were going to win and knew what his role in the administration was going to be and literally uprooted his life after they lost. Ended up packing his bags, leaving DC, and starting over. His emotional state I would best describe is ND fans after the Denard Robinson "Under the Lights" game. I don't know anyone working directly on either campaign this year, but I do know some still involved (tangentially or directly) in GOP politics and this is gist of what I've heard.
1. The internal polls for Trump were much better in 2016 than they are in 2020, BUT...
2. That's not true for every state. Specifically, Florida. They expect to win Florida by a couple points. They also aren't worried at all about Ohio.
3. They expect to lose the popular vote by 2-5 points, not the ~8 points shown in the polls. They think that votes getting thrown out for various reasons buys them 1-3 points. They also think the increased turnout in battleground states give them a couple points.
4. They don't really believe in the "shy" Trump voter. They said the "silent majority" this time around is basically old people trapped in nursing homes and off social media, and millennials without strong affinity for either candidate. "Middle aged white people have never been louder than in 2020."
5. They are cautiously optimistic that Trump wins because of turnout and other factors. COVID cases spiking makes it disproportionately unlikely that Biden voters will go to the polls tomorrow. They expect to gain a couple points on ballots getting thrown out for being completed incorrectly. They've been canvassing for a long time while Biden hasn't. They think they have avenues to get votes thrown out in the courts in close races. The mail delays help them. Etc. Etc. There are about a dozen factors that lead them to believe they will outperform their polls, but none of them are simply the fact that the polls are "wrong" this time.
6. They don't give a shit about anything other than Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina. "If we lose Georgia or Iowa, that means it was already a blowout and it doesn't matter. There is no scenario where they win Iowa but lose Pennsylvania."
7. Most were not a fan of the efforts to invalidate legitimate ballots or declare victory before all the votes are counted. Others said it's "win by any means necessary" and that people will "get over it." Some said if Trump doesn't win, they hope its a blowout because a tight Biden win is going to be a shit show.

I'm personally of the belief that the odds are in Biden's favor, but I think it's VERY easy to see a path to Trump victory and the 2-to-1 betting odds are likely closer to reality than the analytical models.

A lot of this tracks I think. I do hope if Biden wins it's just a landslide, because a close electoral college win is going to be ugly. Crazy to think early this year Trump was likely a lock to win given the state of the economy and basically beating the impeachment. Strong economy was almost always a sure predictor of re-election. The pandemic changed everything quick though, you can't dodge a pandemic like this that comes around once every 100 years. If Obama had been the Vice 4 years ago and was now running as President I think this would be no contest, but Biden's age and lack of charisma has probably helped Trump hang in there.

 

[Irish#1]

There's some info out there that the rallies and clogging traffic and everything else is actually driving down numbers in the areas where it's occurring not up. I think Trump very well may win, but it will be by razor thin margins in a couple key states and while losing the popular vote by millions.

I posted on here four years ago that I spent the weekend before the election with a bunch of GOP friends at a winery including someone working on Trump's campaign overseeing 5 states. He ended up going on to be a political appointee in the Department of Energy after they won. I also had a friend working for Clinton that was 100% sure they were going to win and knew what his role in the administration was going to be and literally uprooted his life after they lost. Ended up packing his bags, leaving DC, and starting over. His emotional state I would best describe is ND fans after the Denard Robinson "Under the Lights" game. I don't know anyone working directly on either campaign this year, but I do know some still involved (tangentially or directly) in GOP politics and this is gist of what I've heard.
1. The internal polls for Trump were much better in 2016 than they are in 2020, BUT...
2. That's not true for every state. Specifically, Florida. They expect to win Florida by a couple points. They also aren't worried at all about Ohio.
3. They expect to lose the popular vote by 2-5 points, not the ~8 points shown in the polls. They think that votes getting thrown out for various reasons buys them 1-3 points. They also think the increased turnout in battleground states give them a couple points.
4. They don't really believe in the "shy" Trump voter. They said the "silent majority" this time around is basically old people trapped in nursing homes and off social media, and millennials without strong affinity for either candidate. "Middle aged white people have never been louder than in 2020."
5. They are cautiously optimistic that Trump wins because of turnout and other factors. COVID cases spiking makes it disproportionately unlikely that Biden voters will go to the polls tomorrow. They expect to gain a couple points on ballots getting thrown out for being completed incorrectly. They've been canvassing for a long time while Biden hasn't. They think they have avenues to get votes thrown out in the courts in close races. The mail delays help them. Etc. Etc. There are about a dozen factors that lead them to believe they will outperform their polls, but none of them are simply the fact that the polls are "wrong" this time.
6. They don't give a shit about anything other than Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina. "If we lose Georgia or Iowa, that means it was already a blowout and it doesn't matter. There is no scenario where they win Iowa but lose Pennsylvania."
7. Most were not a fan of the efforts to invalidate legitimate ballots or declare victory before all the votes are counted. Others said it's "win by any means necessary" and that people will "get over it." Some said if Trump doesn't win, they hope its a blowout because a tight Biden win is going to be a shit show.

I'm personally of the belief that the odds are in Biden's favor, but I think it's VERY easy to see a path to Trump victory and the 2-to-1 betting odds are likely closer to reality than the analytical models.

Appreciate the post. I was curious after I got home and after a google, saw there were quite a few of the caravans going on. This one didn't block traffic. They occupied the middle lane and drove the speed limit which is 15mph slower than I'm use to. lol

I'm not of a mindset that there is a silent majority this year. Those that were silent last election have been pretty vocal as indicated by these caravans and the turnouts at the rallies. Interesting comment on Ohio by your friends. Last night on 60 Minutes it stated that Ohio has voted for the winner since something like 1956. If their data is correct, then DJT wins again. AZ will be interesting as it looks like a tossup at this time.

Putting the fate of your families future in the hands of an election is either crazy or ballsy. Hope they didn't suffer too much.

 

[NorthDakota]

The best part of a US Presidential Election is....the Epic Rap Battle. This one is not as good as the 2012 and 2016 ones but each of them drops some bars with their first verse.

<iframe width="703" height="395" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FkGK7bitav0" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

3 damn months and GoIrish41 still hasn't gotten back to me about hanging out tomorrow night. And I offered to bring goods. Low energy.

 

[Irish YJ]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I want this lawn sign.. <a href="https://t.co/g227dmKEo8">pic.twitter.com/g227dmKEo8</a></p>— Supercalifragilisticexpialidopeness (@BlackHippy77) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlackHippy77/status/1321789412670345216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 29, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[tussin]

There's some info out there that the rallies and clogging traffic and everything else is actually driving down numbers in the areas where it's occurring not up. I think Trump very well may win, but it will be by razor thin margins in a couple key states and while losing the popular vote by millions.

I posted on here four years ago that I spent the weekend before the election with a bunch of GOP friends at a winery including someone working on Trump's campaign overseeing 5 states. He ended up going on to be a political appointee in the Department of Energy after they won. I also had a friend working for Clinton that was 100% sure they were going to win and knew what his role in the administration was going to be and literally uprooted his life after they lost. Ended up packing his bags, leaving DC, and starting over. His emotional state I would best describe is ND fans after the Denard Robinson "Under the Lights" game. I don't know anyone working directly on either campaign this year, but I do know some still involved (tangentially or directly) in GOP politics and this is gist of what I've heard.
1. The internal polls for Trump were much better in 2016 than they are in 2020, BUT...
2. That's not true for every state. Specifically, Florida. They expect to win Florida by a couple points. They also aren't worried at all about Ohio.
3. They expect to lose the popular vote by 2-5 points, not the ~8 points shown in the polls. They think that votes getting thrown out for various reasons buys them 1-3 points. They also think the increased turnout in battleground states give them a couple points.
4. They don't really believe in the "shy" Trump voter. They said the "silent majority" this time around is basically old people trapped in nursing homes and off social media, and millennials without strong affinity for either candidate. "Middle aged white people have never been louder than in 2020."
5. They are cautiously optimistic that Trump wins because of turnout and other factors. COVID cases spiking makes it disproportionately unlikely that Biden voters will go to the polls tomorrow. They expect to gain a couple points on ballots getting thrown out for being completed incorrectly. They've been canvassing for a long time while Biden hasn't. They think they have avenues to get votes thrown out in the courts in close races. The mail delays help them. Etc. Etc. There are about a dozen factors that lead them to believe they will outperform their polls, but none of them are simply the fact that the polls are "wrong" this time.
6. They don't give a shit about anything other than Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina. "If we lose Georgia or Iowa, that means it was already a blowout and it doesn't matter. There is no scenario where they win Iowa but lose Pennsylvania."
7. Most were not a fan of the efforts to invalidate legitimate ballots or declare victory before all the votes are counted. Others said it's "win by any means necessary" and that people will "get over it." Some said if Trump doesn't win, they hope its a blowout because a tight Biden win is going to be a shit show.

I'm personally of the belief that the odds are in Biden's favor, but I think it's VERY easy to see a path to Trump victory and the 2-to-1 betting odds are likely closer to reality than the analytical models.

Anecdotal but I’m not sure I buy the recent narrative of “there is no shy Trump vote.” A few stories from someone who is from Luzerne county PA (maybe the most important county in the US this election):

1. I went home for a fundraiser a month or two ago and it was the first I’ve heard from people saying they actively lie or tell pollsters to leave them alone. One guy said he gets calls every other week and he always lies and says he’s a Biden voter.

2. I don’t know anyone at home that is switching from Trump 2016 to Biden 2020. Conversely, I probably know 25+ Clinton or 3rd party voters that are now going Trump.

3. The ANTIFA / BLM stuff has really alienated people from the left (at least in my life). I know about 10 registered Dem women that are voting Trump because they feel the Democratic Party as a whole has a platform that is way too progressive. Things like reduced police funding, trans conversions for minors, renewed lockdowns and national mask mandates... all this is alienating for many and is mainstream Dem policy.

4. The same women above are literally afraid to say they voted for Trump. All are active on social media, generally well educated, up to date with pop culture... your basic white chick. And they won’t ever say they are even considering voting for Trump.

Again, all anecdotal but TIFWIW.

 

[Irish#1]

Anecdotal but I’m not sure I buy the recent narrative of “there is no shy Trump vote.” A few stories from someone who is from Luzerne county PA (maybe the most important county in the US this election):

1. I went home for a fundraiser a month or two ago and it was the first I’ve heard from people saying they actively lie or tell pollsters to leave them alone. One guy said he gets calls every other week and he always lies and says he’s a Biden voter.

2. I don’t know anyone at home that is switching from Trump 2016 to Biden 2020. Conversely, I probably know 25+ Clinton or 3rd party voters that are now going Trump.

3. The ANTIFA / BLM stuff has really alienated people from the left (at least in my life). I know about 10 registered Dem women that are voting Trump because they feel the Democratic Party as a whole has a platform that is way too progressive. Things like reduced police funding, trans conversions for minors, renewed lockdowns and national mask mandates... all this is alienating for many and is mainstream Dem policy.

4. The same women above are literally afraid to say they voted for Trump. All are active on social media, generally well educated, up to date with pop culture... your basic white chick. And they won’t ever say they are even considering voting for Trump.

Again, all anecdotal but TIFWIW.

Interesting comment on those that get polled. Jason Whitlock mentioned the same thing this morning on Clay Travis. He thought people lie because they are afraid of those on the left that would threaten, scream and try to humiliate the person. In less than 24 hours, we'll have our answer.

 

[Irish#1]

So here we are. Not sure how to set up a poll, but would like to hear who you think is going to win? I think Biden wins.

 

[TorontoGold]

Cool write up from 538, IIRC they gave DJT the best odds in 2016. Large focus on math and less on the partisanship side of things.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-presidential-election-forecast/

 

[drayer54]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">&#55357;&#57000; DK Election Pool Alert: With over 350K entries, a majority of people in every state besides Colorado predict that <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@realdonaldtrump</a> will be the winner of tomorrow’s election. <a href="https://t.co/zUF0uZZtwK">pic.twitter.com/zUF0uZZtwK</a></p>— DraftKings (@DraftKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/DraftKings/status/1323294561079304192?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[NorthDakota]

Interesting comment on those that get polled. Jason Whitlock mentioned the same thing this morning on Clay Travis. He thought people lie because they are afraid of those on the left that would threaten, scream and try to humiliate the person. In less than 24 hours, we'll have our answer.

One day at school a guy who I'm little more than an acquaintance with came up to me and whispered that he heard I might be Republican and he wanted me to know that there are some others at school too.

 

[Irish#1]

One day at school a guy who I'm little more than an acquaintance with came up to me and whispered that he heard I might be Republican and he wanted me to know that there are some others at school too.

lol

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

2 hours standing outside in line to vote in the Philly suburbs