2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race


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wizards8507

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Nah I really liked that.

Broken families are a large issue. I don't think it's the issue like Carolla says, I instead go with campaign finance reform, but it's a large one.

I don't have broken family figures in front of me and I'm going to hit the hay right now, but I did stumble upon this graph the other day, Teen Birth Rates Per 1000 Females, Ages 15-19.

2014_figure_1_teen_birth_rates_per_1000_females_ages_15_to_19_by_race_ethnicity.jpg



Trends in Teen Pregnancy and Childbearing - The Office of Adolescent Health

That's a remarkable improvement. Good news like this doesn't make the commentary though.
Declining teen birth rates is not good news if it comes on the back of rising abortions.
 

GoIrish41

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You're just proving my point. The American left brain is collectively dead. Its not about critical thinking, logic and facts...its about beliefs and feelings. Left, right, center...up and fucking down....wherever you are...dig in deeper and deeper because you are right by virtue of self importance. Maybe we need more reality T.V.

If political messages do not resonate it is because voters, not the messages, are flawed?
 
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kmoose

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If someone's a republican, and they're not concerned, then they simply aren't paying attention. Trump makes consistently concerning comments about Russia, meanwhile... Ivanka isn't off vacationing with Putin's girlfriend and yahcting off Croatia with. Billionaire Clinton sonar.

This is your candidate, Patriots...

I'm not saying that I don't care about this. But I am trying to keep it in perspective. What should I be more concerned about?

Manafort, who is a campaign manager not a candidate, used to work for a non-profit that handled the lobbying efforts of the Ukrainian government. In the course of that work, he paid a couple of DC lobbying firms to lobby for his client in Washington. He was NOT a government employee; he didn't have any personal stake(that we are aware of) in the outcome of the lobbying; and he had basically no influence to trade to anyone for anything.

Clinton, the SecState, through the Clinton Foundation, took millions of dollars in donations from countries, businesses, and organizations that had business with the US. Business that she was in position to directly and profoundly influence. She could very easily have peddled her influence as SecState, in return for large donations. She is currently running for President of the United States. Which means that, if elected, SHE (not her former campaign manager) will have tremendous influence on American policy and/or politics.
 

pkt77242

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Declining teen birth rates is not good news if it comes on the back of rising abortions.

Que?

I believe that the rate of teen abortions is declining (and has been for a while), so I don't really understand your post.
 
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woolybug25

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I'm not saying that I don't care about this. But I am trying to keep it in perspective. What should I be more concerned about?

Manafort, who is a campaign manager not a candidate, used to work for a non-profit that handled the lobbying efforts of the Ukrainian government. In the course of that work, he paid a couple of DC lobbying firms to lobby for his client in Washington. He was NOT a government employee; he didn't have any personal stake(that we are aware of) in the outcome of the lobbying; and he had basically no influence to trade to anyone for anything.

Clinton, the SecState, through the Clinton Foundation, took millions of dollars in donations from countries, businesses, and organizations that had business with the US. Business that she was in position to directly and profoundly influence. She could very easily have peddled her influence as SecState, in return for large donations. She is currently running for President of the United States. Which means that, if elected, SHE (not her former campaign manager) will have tremendous influence on American policy and/or politics.

Do you wait at home for me to post or do you have some kind of alarm that goes off whenever I post? Because you never miss an opportunity to respond to my posts. Always with the same response tactic: deflect>redirect>blame Clinton for something.

It's literally the same exact thing every time. No critical thinking. No substance. Just the typical Trumpian response. I really don't get why you bother? Ha.
 

Bishop2b5

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If political messages do not resonate it is because voters, not the messages, are flawed?

In some cases, yes. Just because a message isn't popular doesn't mean it isn't right. Most people would rather hear what they want to hear instead of what they need to hear. When I tell my 5-year-old she has to eat her veggies, pick up her room, turn the TV off and go to bed early, that message doesn't resonate well with her either. At that moment her 18-year-old sister who'll let her do what she wants, stay up late, and eat nothing but junk food is a lot more popular with her than I am. Doesn't mean my message isn't correct, though.

Here's the difference in our two parties' message to voters:

cartoons-com-the-debates-90-far-free-vegetables-for-sale-3294534.png
 

kmoose

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Do you wait at home for me to post or do you have some kind of alarm that goes off whenever I post? Because you never miss an opportunity to respond to my posts. Always with the same response tactic: deflect>redirect>blame Clinton for something.

It's literally the same exact thing every time. No critical thinking. No substance. Just the typical Trumpian response. I really don't get why you bother? Ha.

I guess we just both have similar schedules, that allow us to be on here at roughly the same time? At least my response directly addressed your post, not you personally. I'm not sure why you seem to have a hard-on for me, other than you think I "called you out" once because I pointed out, not to you, that a thread of yours had been allowed to stand, when a very similar thread from someone else was deleted. I never did understand that. I wasn't attacking you when I said that. I just said, "hey, wooly made a very similar thread recently and the mods didn't have a problem with it." I never commented on whether or not I thought the content of your thread was good or bad. Just that it was similar to the one that had been deleted. But, ever since then, you have this crazy vendetta........... :whoknows:
 

woolybug25

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I guess we just both have similar schedules, that allow us to be on here at roughly the same time? At least my response directly addressed your post, not you personally. I'm not sure why you seem to have a hard-on for me, other than you think I "called you out" once because I pointed out, not to you, that a thread of yours had been allowed to stand, when a very similar thread from someone else was deleted. I never did understand that. I wasn't attacking you when I said that. I just said, "hey, wooly made a very similar thread recently and the mods didn't have a problem with it." I never commented on whether or not I thought the content of your thread was good or bad. Just that it was similar to the one that had been deleted. But, ever since then, you have this crazy vendetta........... :whoknows:

Deflect deflect deflect....

You are responding to my posts, not the other way around. Every single day you respond to my posts and none of them are directed to you. I will post a general observation, link or thought... Then BOOM!... There you are with the same deflect, redirect and blame Clinton response. I'm not addressing you, I'm not asking you questions. You just wait for me to post anything in this thread and pounce on it. It's freaking creepy man. So you are clearly the one with the hard on.
 

phgreek

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In some cases, yes. Just because a message isn't popular doesn't mean it isn't right. Most people would rather hear what they want to hear instead of what they need to hear. When I tell my 5-year-old she has to eat her veggies, pick up her room, turn the TV off and go to bed early, that message doesn't resonate well with her either. At that moment her 18-year-old sister who'll let her do what she wants, stay up late, and eat nothing but junk food is a lot more popular with her than I am. Doesn't mean my message isn't correct, though.

Here's the difference in our two parties' message to voters:

cartoons-com-the-debates-90-far-free-vegetables-for-sale-3294534.png

...Hehehe. Look at the Donkey's insane eyes and Joker smile and tell me you don't see it...ga head.
 

IrishBroker

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In some cases, yes. Just because a message isn't popular doesn't mean it isn't right. Most people would rather hear what they want to hear instead of what they need to hear. When I tell my 5-year-old she has to eat her veggies, pick up her room, turn the TV off and go to bed early, that message doesn't resonate well with her either. At that moment her 18-year-old sister who'll let her do what she wants, stay up late, and eat nothing but junk food is a lot more popular with her than I am. Doesn't mean my message isn't correct, though.

Here's the difference in our two parties' message to voters:

cartoons-com-the-debates-90-far-free-vegetables-for-sale-3294534.png

Hilarious. And the Free Candy voters are still lining up, despite the cavities....
 

GoIrish41

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In some cases, yes. Just because a message isn't popular doesn't mean it isn't right. Most people would rather hear what they want to hear instead of what they need to hear. When I tell my 5-year-old she has to eat her veggies, pick up her room, turn the TV off and go to bed early, that message doesn't resonate well with her either. At that moment her 18-year-old sister who'll let her do what she wants, stay up late, and eat nothing but junk food is a lot more popular with her than I am. Doesn't mean my message isn't correct, though.

Here's the difference in our two parties' message to voters:

cartoons-com-the-debates-90-far-free-vegetables-for-sale-3294534.png

First, voters aren't children. Second, your argument sounds a lot like the complains that the GOP has about the Democrats -- we know what's best for you, and you cannot be trusted to make the right decision. A prominent feature of our government is Democracy, government by the consent of the governed. If you cannot find consent, your ideas are toast. Simple. People have stopped buying what you are selling -- at least enough people to ensure that your candidates' messages do not move them to the voting booths.

The cartoon makes me laugh. It's always good for a little chuckle to be reminded of how Republicans see themselves. You guys are the responsible party ... the one who is "making us eat or vegetables?" You might have had better luck 20 or 30 years ago selling that nonsense, but those days are long gone. Republican "responsibility" the last time they occupied the White House led us to a war of false premises that has lasted for a decade and a half and is responsible for thousands of lost lives. Their responsible behavior and economic prowess led to an economy that wobbled near the edge of collapse.

And now, the same grown-ups have offered up Donald J. Trump as their choice to be the next President of the United States. He shows tremendous wisdom when he goes on late night Twitter rampages or tells us that he has "big strong hands" and no complaints from any of his three wives about the size of his junk. Instead of showing any hint of intellectual curiosity about anything, he jumps right in the raging river of politics without so much as dipping his toe in the water before making ridiculous suggestions about how "he and nobody else" can fix everything, by means that would (and in some cases already are) do harm to our alliances and destabilize the world. At home, he stokes fear like he's on a school yard, pointing at "them" as the bad guys who are ruining everything for the rest of us. Calling women fat pigs, men "little" "liars," and his GOP congressmen and the most experience people in his own party pathetic losers.

Your party isn't selling vegetables ... they are selling crack if they expect people to believe GOP policies work after 30 years of proof that the only thing that trickles down is despair and increased poverty for the working class and the poor. And yet, just this week, your great outsider candidate of the people is pitching the same tired disproven BS that the GOP has pitched for decades.

It makes me smile when I see anyone suggest that the Republicans have any moral authority left to dictate what is best for the country. The governed no longer consent. Your cartoon of a candidate will likely lose in a historic landslide. Which way will the Republicans go afterward? Will they double down on candidates who are increasingly off kilter, or will they realize that the country they want to govern is different that the one they resided over in the 1980s. Inspire us with new ideas that help people instead of blaming those same people for the unbalanced conditions that have been foisted upon them via the GOP's responsible policies.
 
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MJ12666

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First, voters aren't children. Second, your argument sounds a lot like the complains that the GOP has about the Democrats -- we know what's best for you, and you cannot be trusted to make the right decision. A prominent feature of our government is Democracy, government by the consent of the governed. If you cannot find consent, your ideas are toast. Simple. People have stopped buying what you are selling -- at least enough people to ensure that your candidates' messages do not move them to the voting booths.

The cartoon makes me laugh. It's always good for a little chuckle to be reminded of how Republicans see themselves. You guys are the responsible party ... the one who is "making us eat or vegetables?" You might have had better luck 20 or 30 years ago selling that nonsense, but those days are long gone. Republican "responsibility" the last time they occupied the White House led us to a war of false premises that has lasted for a decade and a half and is responsible for thousands of lost lives. Their responsible behavior and economic prowess led to an economy that wobbled near the edge of collapse.

The last eight years have been been just great. Just imagine what the next eight years will bring if HRC gets elected and the Dems get control of the House and win 60+ seats in the Senate. We will all think we have been transported to Nirvana.

U.S. Has Record 10th Straight Year Without 3% Growth in GDP

U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
 
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Bogtrotter07

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Declining teen birth rates is not good news if it comes on the back of rising abortions.

Why don't you think, let alone research before you say something so dysfunctional and ignorant?

It's not you Wiz, it is the moralistic anti-abortion motards, whose banner mantra you evoked, [everyone else is wrong, a sinner, and going to hell!] Every time someone tries to talk sensibly with that block about their views, and has the gall to use facts, or logic it is the same. Like a combination of Jimmy Swaggart and Eeyore!

Abortion rates have been coming down :

ANNUAL ABORTION STATISTICS
•Based on available state-level data, an estimated 954,000 abortions took place in 2014—down from approximately 983,000 abortions in 2013 and 1.02 million abortions in 2012.
•In 2011, 1.06 million abortions took place in the U.S., down from 1.21 million abortions in 2008, 1.2 million in 2005, 1.29 million in 2002, 1.31 million in 2000 and 1.36 million in 1996. From 1973 through 2011, nearly 53 million legal abortions occurred in the U.S. (AGI).
•Twenty-one percent of all U.S. pregnancies (excluding miscarriages) end in abortion. (AGI).
•In 2011, the highest number of reported abortions occurred in California (181,730), New York (138,370) and Florida (84,990); the fewest occurred in Wyoming (120), South Dakota (600) and North Dakota (1,250) (AGI).
•Mississippi had the lowest abortion rate in 2011 (Wyoming had too few abortions for reliable tabulation), and New York had the highest (AGI). There were approximately 17.5 births for every abortion in Mississippi and approximately 2.3 births for every abortion in New York.
•The annual number of legal induced abortions in the United States doubled between 1973 and 1979, and peaked in 1990. There was a slow but steady decline through the 1990's. Overall, the number of annual abortions decreased by 6% between 2000 and 2009, with temporary spikes in 2002 and 2006 (CDC).

•From 2011 to 2012, the total number and ratio of reported abortions decreased by 4% (CDC).
•In 2011, 17% of legal induced abortions occurred in California (AGI).
•The US abortion rate is similar to those of Australia, New Zealand, and Sweden but higher than those of other Western European countries (NAF).

•In 2005, the abortion rate in the United States was higher than recent rates reported for Canada and Western European countries and lower than rates reported for China, Cuba, the majority of Eastern European countries, and certain Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union (CDC).

WHO HAS ABORTIONS?
•In 2012, unmarried women accounted for 85.3% of all abortions (CDC).
•Women living with a partner to whom they are not married account for 25% of abortions but only about 10% of women in the population (NAF).
•In 2012, women who had not aborted in the past accounted for 55.7% of all abortions; women with one or two prior abortions accounted for 35.6%, and women with three or more prior abortions accounted for 8.6% (CDC).
•Among women who obtained abortions in 2012, 40.3% had no prior live births; 45.8% had one or two prior live births, and 14.0% had three or more prior live births (CDC).

•Women between the ages of 20-24 obtained 32.8% of all abortions in 2012; women between 25-29 obtained 25.4% (CDC).
•In 2012, adolescents under 15 years obtained .04% of all abortions, but had the highest abortion ratio: 817 abortions for every 1,000 live births (CDC).
•Black women were 3.6 times more likely to have an abortion in 2012 than non-Hispanic white women (CDC).
•The abortion rate of non-metropolitan women is about half that of women who live in metropolitan counties (NAF).

•The abortion rate of women with Medicaid coverage is three times as high as that of other women (NAF).

37% of women obtaining abortions identify themselves as Protestant, and 28% identify themselves as Catholic (AGI).

Maybe we can blame contraception, or Planned Parenthood!
 

pkt77242

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The last eight years have been been just great. Just imagine what the next eight years will bring if HRC gets elected and the Dems get control of the House and win 60+ seats in the Senate. We will all think we have been transported to Nirvana.

U.S. Has Record 10th Straight Year Without 3% Growth in GDP

U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

I believe that the years of consistent 3%+ growth are gone. Mature economies just don't grow that fast consistently (and usually when they do it is because they are accelerating the growth into the near futre and will pay for it with a recession down the road). The economy under GWB is a good example of that (and if I remember correctly GWB only had 2 years of 3%+ growth out of 8).

An interesting article
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-01-28/economics-might-be-all-wrong-about-growth
 

GoIrish41

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The last eight years have been been just great. Just imagine what the next eight years will bring if HRC gets elected and the Dems get control of the House and win 60+ seats in the Senate. We will all think we have been transported to Nirvana.

U.S. Has Record 10th Straight Year Without 3% Growth in GDP

U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

When W left office we were hemorrhaging hundreds of thousands of jobs a month and the economy was on the verge of collapse. Even modest growth is better than the bottom falling out because of tax cuts to the rich and costly wars waged for dubious reasons. The last time you guys had the keys to the car you nearly blew the engine and the passenger side was riddled with dents and scratches. You have not shown that you can be trusted with the keys again.
 
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Bogtrotter07

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In some cases, yes. Just because a message isn't popular doesn't mean it isn't right. Most people would rather hear what they want to hear instead of what they need to hear. When I tell my 5-year-old she has to eat her veggies, pick up her room, turn the TV off and go to bed early, that message doesn't resonate well with her either. At that moment her 18-year-old sister who'll let her do what she wants, stay up late, and eat nothing but junk food is a lot more popular with her than I am. Doesn't mean my message isn't correct, though.

Here's the difference in our two parties' message to voters:

cartoons-com-the-debates-90-far-free-vegetables-for-sale-3294534.png

Love all you reactionaries! You guys are great ACamp, Bish, etc. But when it comes to politics ya'll need a colonic.

Really.

I am not a Democrat. But I rarely vote Republican. Except at a local level. And I expect I will vote less Republican because of the way they gerrymandered Ohio Congressional Districts; That was taking advantage of the sick and dying.

Here are some Republican topics for you to discuss in this thread. I am not a Hillary fan, but the implication that she has people murdered is complete scum-mockery! Unless you have proof. I don't mean see it in print from a media source.

  • MN Radio Host states Unsubstantiated allegations by conservative hosts, blow public's perception of all media's credibility.
  • Mitch McConnell's decision to hold up any hearings for the replacement of Alito's from the night of Sam's death in April have been discussed among Republican strategists as one of the stupidest strategic blunders in the history of American politics.
  • Colorado's largest single voting block is now independent, and seems to have made more gains from the erosion of disenchanted former Republicans.
  • Many Trump primary voters are first timers, and camouflage flaccid support from life-long Republican voters.
  • Swing group. Polls show among educated white male voters, Trump support is falling steadily and Clinton support is growing at a nearly equal pace.
  • Swing states, aren't. States that have been considered swing states in any of the last five elections are not looking as if they will be swing states this time. The Democrats have extended single digit leads from the post convention bump, to commanding single digit leads in states that traditionally have been too close to call.

Respectfully, I would like to see any of these points discussed in this thread, instead of the hackneyed, droolmongering, semi-intelligible clichéd chestnuts, that no longer hold any weight with the changing political landscape.

I heard a lifelong Republican, someone that I truly respect say it best. He said that he almost felt disenfranchised because he wouldn't sport moronic truisms, doubt the science he based his life and career on, for a bunch of nonsense that had been dispelled decades ago. I told him that I understood what he was saying. He then shrugged and said it took some Tea Party idiots, but it was nice that we could have a better understanding of each other.
 

IrishBroker

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When W left office we were hemorrhaging hundreds of thousands of jobs a month and the economy was on the verge of collapse. Even modest growth is better than the bottom falling out because of tax cuts to the rich and costly wars waged for dubious reasons. The last time you guys had the keys to the car you nearly blew the engine and the passenger side was riddled with dents and scratches. You have not shown that you can be trusted with the keys again.

Billy had a lot to do with that. I know you probably don't believe that. But the mortgage crisis (and 2008 collapse) can be attributed to him and his opening the floodgates to subprime lending practices.
 

EddytoNow

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First, voters aren't children. Second, your argument sounds a lot like the complains that the GOP has about the Democrats -- we know what's best for you, and you cannot be trusted to make the right decision. A prominent feature of our government is Democracy, government by the consent of the governed. If you cannot find consent, your ideas are toast. Simple. People have stopped buying what you are selling -- at least enough people to ensure that your candidates' messages do not move them to the voting booths.

The cartoon makes me laugh. It's always good for a little chuckle to be reminded of how Republicans see themselves. You guys are the responsible party ... the one who is "making us eat or vegetables?" You might have had better luck 20 or 30 years ago selling that nonsense, but those days are long gone. Republican "responsibility" the last time they occupied the White House led us to a war of false premises that has lasted for a decade and a half and is responsible for thousands of lost lives. Their responsible behavior and economic prowess led to an economy that wobbled near the edge of collapse.

And now, the same grown-ups have offered up Donald J. Trump as their choice to be the next President of the United States. He shows tremendous wisdom when he goes on late night Twitter rampages or tells us that he has "big strong hands" and no complaints from any of his three wives about the size of his junk. Instead of showing any hint of intellectual curiosity about anything, he jumps right in the raging river of politics without so much as dipping his toe in the water before making ridiculous suggestions about how "he and nobody else" can fix everything, by means that would (and in some cases already are) do harm to our alliances and destabilize the world. At home, he stokes fear like he's on a school yard, pointing at "them" as the bad guys who are ruining everything for the rest of us. Calling women fat pigs, men "little" "liars," and his GOP congressmen and the most experience people in his own party pathetic losers.

Your party isn't selling vegetables ... they are selling crack if they expect people to believe GOP policies work after 30 years of proof that the only thing that trickles down is despair and increased poverty for the working class and the poor. And yet, just this week, your great outsider candidate of the people is pitching the same tired disproven BS that the GOP has pitched for decades.

It makes me smile when I see anyone suggest that the Republicans have any moral authority left to dictate what is best for the country. The governed no longer consent. Your cartoon of a candidate will likely lose in a historic landslide. Which way will the Republicans go afterward? Will they double down on candidates who are increasingly off kilter, or will they realize that the country they want to govern is different that the one they resided over in the 1980s. Inspire us with new ideas that help people instead of blaming those same people for the unbalanced conditions that have been foisted upon them via the GOP's responsible policies.

The GOP won't listen. They can't understand why the rest of the country wants nothing to do with their "we know what's best for you" policies and their feeble attempt to show any compassion for those who can't afford to live in their neighborhoods. The rest of the country has passed them by. We are moving forward with or without the GOP.
 
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Bogtrotter07

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When W left office we were hemorrhaging hundreds of thousands of jobs a month and the economy was on the verge of collapse. Even modest growth is better than the bottom falling out because of tax cuts to the rich and costly wars waged for dubious reasons. The last time you guys had the keys to the car you nearly blew the engine and the passenger side was riddled with dents and scratches. You have not shown that you can be trusted with the keys again.

You know I am with you. I never liked W. I knew he would be a lousy president, and he was. Hell, he tried to take a page from the Reagan playbook, and most of it didn't work back then!

Rudy said it perfectly the other night. All the terrorist attacks were when Clinton or Obama were presidents. I mean he had to be right, because after all, Republican Presidents are tough on our enemies! Aren't they? Well maybe not so much.

The fact is if you look at the unvarnished truth going back to Nixon, there hasn't been a Republican president worth a shit with foreign policy. Nor has there been one very successful with the economy. Our best economic presidents since 1970 have been Democratic, (but not all Democrats.) And the last two democratic presidents have been smart enough to keep our heads down when it comes to effecting military solutions instead of diplomacy. But that kind of truth would expose those 'vegetables' for what they are, as bitter nightshade.
 
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Bogtrotter07

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Billy had a lot to do with that. I know you probably don't believe that. But the mortgage crisis (and 2008 collapse) can be attributed to him and his opening the floodgates to subprime lending practices.

Just not true. Bill's contribution was NAFTA and elimination of the down-tick, up-tick rule. Much of the groundwork for the mortgage crisis started as early as the Reagan Administration with the SL bailout and a few other choice little policies.

But W. Opened it wide in his first term. All the info is there.

Note : See my previous post. The 'Great GOP Presidents' fucked up bigtime, and revisionists are trying to paper over it all.

Democrats have lustful hearts which are almost as despicable! Right?

All of our politicians leave more than enough to be desired. Some are a little more forthcoming/transparent.
 
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IrishBroker

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The GOP won't listen. They can't understand why the rest of the country wants nothing to do with their "we know what's best for you" policies and their feeble attempt to show any compassion for those who can't afford to live in their neighborhoods. The rest of the country has passed them by. We are moving forward with or without the GOP.

If there is any party that lends itself to the creed of "we know what's best for you" it's the Dems.

They've been screaming that at minorities and the poor for decades.


You can't move on without the GOP with nominations to someone like Clinton...who is EXACTLY like a GOPer. But she's just saying things right now to dupe you. Seriously.
 

IrishBroker

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Just not true. Bill's contribution was NAFTA and elimination of the down-tick, up-tick rule. Much of the groundwork for the mortgage crisis started as early as the Reagan Administration with the SL bailout and a few other choice little policies.

But W. Opened it wide in his first term. All the info is there.

Nope. Two words: Glass-Steagall.

By repealing it, he effectively destroyed any "checks and balances" that might have contained the damage.

Repealing Glass-Steagall in 1999 lead to a 200% jump in subprime mortgage originations and it never looked back.

Pair that with the idiotic Community Reinvestment Act, And the fact that he exempted credit-default swapping from regulation, and it's pretty clear who holds the biggest bag in this debacle
 
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