2016 Presidential Horse Race

[phgreek]

Not a huge fan of Daily News or King, but I found this article to be pretty much on point.


http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/king-stop-blaming-hillary-struggles-bernie-article-1.2640135


Just out of curiosity, since many of you on here plan to hold their nose and vote Trump or HRC, how many would rather hold their nose and vote Bernie? Not because you agree with him or because you think he's the best candidate who ran, but because perhaps he's better than the other two?

Bernie just tied HRC in a state (Kentucky) that had a closed primary and she won in a landslide back in '08. (Of course the Clinton campaign and the mainstream media aren't declaring it a tie. 27 delegates each at a 46% clip after >99% reporting sounds like a tie to me.) Anyways, he then went on to crush her in Oregon. Up ahead is Cali, where RCP average polling is around +9 in favor of HRC. Note, the polling in states with open primaries have been wrong in a lot of these states. Bernie over achieves polling and Hillary underachieves. It's conceivable that he can tie or win CA. Will he win the nomination outright? No. But the point I'm trying to make is this: Does Bernie have a legitimate shot at a third party run? The longer and longer this goes on, the more I believe he does.

I already said earlier I would vote Sanders even though we couldn't be further from one another politically. I'd probably regret it due to SCOTUS appointments...but the thing is, if DC ran honestly and efficiently, maybe SCOTUS is less a factor.

You'd have to believe he would and could shatter special interest grasp on law making...I actually do believe he could have an impact. That is something I could support.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I already said earlier I would vote Sanders even though we couldn't be further from one another politically. I'd probably regret it due to SCOTUS appointments...but the thing is, if DC ran honestly and efficiently, maybe SCOTUS is less a factor.

You'd have to believe he would and could shatter special interest grasp on law making...I actually do believe he could have an impact. That is something I could support.

If he accomplishes only one thing and it's this, I will consider it a success. I don't think you're alone in supporting that task regardless of who is leading the charge.

 

[gkIrish]

I think that would guarantee Trump wins in a landslide.

It would never even make it to the House. Trump would easily get enough electoral votes because Bernie and Clinton would be splitting the liberal/Dem vote, letting Trump win the states. Now if a true moderate candidate (with mass appeal) ran then it could lead to it going to the House of Representatives.

I disagree. Ballpark popular votes:

Hillary: 13 million
Trump: 11 million
Sanders: 10 million
Cruz: 7.5 million
Kasich: 3.9 million
Rubio: 3.5 million

Keep in mind that Trump DOMINATES the percentages in almost all Republican primaries, and he still has less votes than Hillary and only 1 million more than Bernie.

Trump isn't going to win California or New York no matter what he does. Bernie is going win some of these small New England states and probably Oregon no matter what Trump does. So the question is whether Trump can win Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, AND Michigan. He would probably need to sweep those states.

 

[NDinL.A.]

I agree with you. But recently, it just seems like he may actually do it.

Think of the shit show American politics are right now that Republicans are openly stating they'll vote for Hillary Fucking Clinton over the GOP candidate. Democrats are so disgusted with Clinton that they're considering not voting at all or even voting for Trump. The #neverTrump and #neverHillary crowds could easily begin to see common ground with the #Bernieorbust crowd. Voter turnout could be ignited if there's a third option. When turnout is high, it's hard to say what will and will not happen.

Bernie and even his wife have consistently said he isn't going to do it. In fact, he keeps saying he doesn't want Trump in the WH and will do whatever it takes to keep him out. Well, if he runs third party, he'll just be ushering Trump into the WH on a red carpet. There is a reason Trump keeps begging Sanders to run as an independent. So why do it? He won't.

This will all go away in a couple of months after the convention. Sanders knows he has no chance, but he wants to get more and more of his agenda into the platform. It'll work too, because Clinton desperately needs his followers to vote for her. I don't like the way he is going about it, and he is hurting Clinton in the short term and if he isn't careful, he's going to unwittingly engender too much hatred for the DNC that too many of his supporters will go to Trump as a protest vote. And as a result, he'll put his bigger nemesis in the WH.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Bernie and even his wife have consistently said he isn't going to do it. In fact, he keeps saying he doesn't want Trump in the WH and will do whatever it takes to keep him out. Well, if he runs third party, he'll just be ushering Trump into the WH on a red carpet. There is a reason Trump keeps begging Sanders to run as an independent. So why do it? He won't.

This will all go away in a couple of months after the convention. Sanders knows he has no chance, but he wants to get more and more of his agenda into the platform. It'll work too, because Clinton desperately needs his followers to vote for her. I don't like the way he is going about it, and he is hurting Clinton in the short term and if he isn't careful, he's going to unwittingly engender too much hatred for the DNC that too many of his supporters will go to Trump as a protest vote. And as a result, he'll put his bigger nemesis in the WH.

^This

 

[drayer54]

I am surprised how many democrats I know that say they won't vote for Hillary and are firm Bernie types. They may change their minds over the next few months, but the dislike for her isn't unique to the GOP. Conversely, I've heard a few GOP types say that Bernie might have a chance at their vote, but not a chance in hell that Hillary does.

It still amazes me that we are going to be stuck with these two con artists as our choices.

 

[GATTACA!]

Bernie and even his wife have consistently said he isn't going to do it. In fact, he keeps saying he doesn't want Trump in the WH and will do whatever it takes to keep him out. Well, if he runs third party, he'll just be ushering Trump into the WH on a red carpet. There is a reason Trump keeps begging Sanders to run as an independent. So why do it? He won't.

This will all go away in a couple of months after the convention. Sanders knows he has no chance, but he wants to get more and more of his agenda into the platform. It'll work too, because Clinton desperately needs his followers to vote for her. I don't like the way he is going about it, and he is hurting Clinton in the short term and if he isn't careful, he's going to unwittingly engender too much hatred for the DNC that too many of his supporters will go to Trump as a protest vote. And as a result, he'll put his bigger nemesis in the WH.

I think it's more than just pushing his agenda on Hillary. I think the closer we get to the convention the stronger his argument is to the super delegates. If by the time the convention rolls around the current trends hold and by then Hillary is losing to fucking Trump in most polls, while Bernie still holds a double digit lead on him, I think he has a really strong argument. You can either stick with Hillary and hand Trump the white house or you can get behind me and have a cake walk.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

I think it's more than just pushing his agenda on Hillary. I think the closer we get to the convention the stronger his argument is to the super delegates. If by the time the convention rolls around the current trends hold and by then Hillary is losing to fucking Trump in most polls, while Bernie still holds a double digit lead on him, I think he has a really strong argument. You can either stick with Hillary and hand Trump the white house or you can get behind me and have a cake walk.

He's losing to her in pledged delegates by a wide margin. I don't see how he has a legitimate claim. Especially given that he and his supporters have been saying that super delegates are a way to subvert the will of the voters.

 

[irishfan]

Fox News Poll: Trump tops Clinton, both seen as deeply flawed candidates | Fox News

So this is a very legit poll. 538 gives it a B rating. Her unfavorables are terrible....Trump already survived every attack possible. If anything, I see his favorable numbers going up and her's going down...

 

[kmoose]

Not a huge fan of Daily News or King, but I found this article to be pretty much on point.


http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/king-stop-blaming-hillary-struggles-bernie-article-1.2640135


Just out of curiosity, since many of you on here plan to hold their nose and vote Trump or HRC, how many would rather hold their nose and vote Bernie? Not because you agree with him or because you think he's the best candidate who ran, but because perhaps he's better than the other two?

Bernie just tied HRC in a state (Kentucky) that had a closed primary and she won in a landslide back in '08. (Of course the Clinton campaign and the mainstream media aren't declaring it a tie. 27 delegates each at a 46% clip after >99% reporting sounds like a tie to me.) Anyways, he then went on to crush her in Oregon. Up ahead is Cali, where RCP average polling is around +9 in favor of HRC. Note, the polling in states with open primaries have been wrong in a lot of these states. Bernie over achieves polling and Hillary underachieves. It's conceivable that he can tie or win CA. Will he win the nomination outright? No. But the point I'm trying to make is this: Does Bernie have a legitimate shot at a third party run? The longer and longer this goes on, the more I believe he does.

If I had a choice between those 3, I would vote Bernie all day long, and twice on Sunday.

 

[kmoose]

He knew of all this a LONG time ago, but he didn’t care. He never said a word about her character, quite the opposite in fact. When he wasn’t inviting them to his wedding, he was helping support their political runs financially. When he wasn’t doing that, he was praising her for her excellent work as Secretary of State and how she’d make a fine president. NOW all of a sudden he has a problem with her being an enabler.

Hillary wasn't trying to draw any lines between her and him, using respect for women, back when he "didn't care." Again, you guys are missing the point, or simply trying to make it a point that isn't there. The point is not that Hillary is a terrible person(she is, but that's not what this is about), it's that she is saying one thing, but her actions strongly indicate something else. I'm not saying Trump doesn't do any of that, but that doesn't make Clinton doing it disappear.

 

[GATTACA!]

He's losing to her in pledged delegates by a wide margin. I don't see how he has a legitimate claim. Especially given that he and his supporters have been saying that super delegates are a way to subvert the will of the voters.

Not really. She leading in regular delegates 1768-1494, while not insignificant it's also isn't insurmountable when you consider there are still 781 regular delegates up for grabs. She would need 614/781 to get to her magic number with just regular delegates which will never happen. The big gap is in her absurd super delegate lead which is currently 525-39. If Sanders can convince a large portion of those super delegates to flip to him he certainly still has a chance.

 

[MJ12666]

If I had a choice between those 3, I would vote Bernie all day long, and twice on Sunday.

First I have read a lot of your posts on this topic and they are quite reasonable. I am curios about this in that you would vote for BS even with what is happening in Venezuela?

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Fox News Poll: Trump tops Clinton, both seen as deeply flawed candidates | Fox News

So this is a very legit poll. 538 gives it a B rating. Her unfavorables are terrible....Trump already survived every attack possible. If anything, I see his favorable numbers going up and her's going down...

Clinton has been under attack for years, most recently for the emails and Benghazi (whether legit or not). She's not new to the stage, so most people have pretty concrete opinions about her already. I would think that her unfavorables are much more stable.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Not really. She leading in regular delegates 1768-1494, while not insignificant it's also isn't insurmountable when you consider there are still 781 regular delegates up for grabs. She would need 614/781 to get to her magic number with just regular delegates which will never happen. The big gap is in her absurd super delegate lead which is currently 525-39. If Sanders can convince a large portion of those super delegates to flip to him he certainly still has a chance.

But the delegates are proportional on the democratic side. There are no winner-take-all states. He won in Oregon by 12 points but only netted 9 pledged delegates (34-25). That's about 58% of the delegates in a comfortable win. If that was the case moving forward (and she'll still likely get some wins), he'd only get 452 of the pledged delegates to her 329. So it pretty much is insurmountable.

 

[kmoose]

First I have read a lot of your posts on this topic and they are quite reasonable. I am curios about this in that you would vote for BS even with what is happening in Venezuela?

I think Sanders is misguided. But I think he's misguided by a desire to do what is right, not what is right for him. I think he is dead wrong on free college. If 75% of the available workforce has a Bachelor's degree, then the value of those degrees will plummet. But I think he will listen to people who will probably encourage him to take some of that money and dump it into Trades Apprenticeship programs which will bring living wage jobs to a lot of people. I don't worry about what is happening in Venezuela. Bernie Sanders has never been the President of Venezuela; Venezuela's economy is a one-trick pony(oil); And I would bet that our State governments are much stronger than Venezuela's. I'd bet that there was ample opportunity for the States(Districts, Provinces?) in Venezuela to pick up the slack from the Federales, but weren't able to. I don't think that happens in the US.

I'm not championing Sanders, here. But given those three options? Give me Bernie or give me death.

 

[Irish#1]

Fox News Poll: Trump tops Clinton, both seen as deeply flawed candidates | Fox News

So this is a very legit poll. 538 gives it a B rating. Her unfavorables are terrible....Trump already survived every attack possible. If anything, I see his favorable numbers going up and her's going down...

I think this has already started.

 

[irishfan]

I think this has already started.

It definitely has. She had him destroyed a couple months ago.

 

[GATTACA!]

But the delegates are proportional on the democratic side. There are no winner-take-all states. He won in Oregon by 12 points but only netted 9 pledged delegates (34-25). That's about 58% of the delegates in a comfortable win. If that was the case moving forward (and she'll still likely get some wins), he'd only get 452 of the pledged delegates to her 329. So it pretty much is insurmountable.

I agree with all of this. Let me try and explain myself again. What I mean is that even though Bernie has no shot at securing the nomination, neither does Hillary without the help of the super delegates. Without the super delegates if we use your projection for the remaining primaries Sanders would finish within about 150 delegates. However once you add the lopsided super delegates Hillary will cruise past the magic number. You're correct that in that sense her lead is insurmountable, Bernie couldn't reach it if he won every single regular delegate that's left.

He doesn't have to though. My point is that if he finishes within about 150 delegates by convention time and neither candidate is at the magic number he has a strong case based on the predicted outcomes of both Hillary and Bernie vs Trump that they should support him instead. The super delegates that Hillary has now, and the ones she will gain in the remaining states are unbound. Meaning they can vote for whomever they want. If Sanders can convince enough of them to flip to his side he has kept the regular delegates close enough to give himself a chance.

 

[Fenway]

 

[IrishJayhawk]

I agree with all of this. Let me try and explain myself again. What I mean is that even though Bernie has no shot at securing the nomination, neither does Hillary without the help of the super delegates. Without the super delegates if we use your projection for the remaining primaries Sanders would finish within about 150 delegates. However once you add the lopsided super delegates Hillary will cruise past the magic number. You're correct that in that sense her lead is insurmountable, Bernie couldn't reach it if he won every single regular delegate that's left.

He doesn't have to though. My point is that if he finishes within about 150 delegates by convention time and neither candidate is at the magic number he has a strong case based on the predicted outcomes of both Hillary and Bernie vs Trump that they should support him instead. The super delegates that Hillary has now, and the ones she will gain in the remaining states are unbound. Meaning they can vote for whomever they want. If Sanders can convince enough of them to flip to his side he has kept the regular delegates close enough to give himself a chance.

Sure. But then Bernie and his supporters would rightly be pegged as hypocrites, given how fiercely they criticized the super delegate system throughout

 

[MJ12666]

I think Sanders is misguided. But I think he's misguided by a desire to do what is right, not what is right for him. I think he is dead wrong on free college. If 75% of the available workforce has a Bachelor's degree, then the value of those degrees will plummet. But I think he will listen to people who will probably encourage him to take some of that money and dump it into Trades Apprenticeship programs which will bring living wage jobs to a lot of people. I don't worry about what is happening in Venezuela. Bernie Sanders has never been the President of Venezuela; Venezuela's economy is a one-trick pony(oil); And I would bet that our State governments are much stronger than Venezuela's. I'd bet that there was ample opportunity for the States(Districts, Provinces?) in Venezuela to pick up the slack from the Federales, but weren't able to. I don't think that happens in the US.

I'm not championing Sanders, here. But given those three options? Give me Bernie or give me death.

A rational argument and while I agree that the US will not follow the exact same path, I don't think the states have much power in the US and once you start down the road of socialism it is very difficult if not impossible to reverse course. Additionally, there is no evidence that BS will change course on free college nor has there been any indication that he will listen to anyone. One other important issue is who he will be nominate to the Supreme Court. It certainly will not include any of the judges on the list that Trump issued today.

Anyway, BS will not run as a third party candidate so it is a moot point. Way to late to make that decision. His only chance is if HRC gets indicted and even with that I don't see the Dem establishment nominating him.

 

[GATTACA!]

Sure. But then Bernie and his supporters would rightly be pegged as hypocrites, given how fiercely they criticized the super delegate system throughout

He can still be critical of the system while still understanding that getting their support is the only possible way to win the nomination. A candidate would have to win an insane amount of the regular delegates to overcome the amount of super delegates Hillary has bought..... oops I mean won, all the super delegates she's won.

It's the same way I see Trump being critical of companies making things in China, while he still uses China to produce his products. You can be critical of a system of doing things and still partake in it yourself if it's the only way you can currently do business.

 

[NDinL.A.]

Hillary wasn't trying to draw any lines between her and him, using respect for women, back when he "didn't care." Again, you guys are missing the point, or simply trying to make it a point that isn't there. The point is not that Hillary is a terrible person(she is, but that's not what this is about), it's that she is saying one thing, but her actions strongly indicate something else. I'm not saying Trump doesn't do any of that, but that doesn't make Clinton doing it disappear.

Dude, I CLEARLY said that your post was true (which, for some reason, you cut out of the quote). I then said Trump was a giant hypocrite and the same as every other politician that he claims to loathe (which I've said since he first started running). He's a fraud and a hypocrite (among many other things), and I find it hysterical that the woman he supported and praised for so many years is suddenly this awful person when she is the same as she has always been.

 

[NDinL.A.]

Fox News Poll: Trump tops Clinton, both seen as deeply flawed candidates | Fox News

So this is a very legit poll. 538 gives it a B rating. Her unfavorables are terrible....Trump already survived every attack possible. If anything, I see his favorable numbers going up and her's going down...

I think this has already started.

I feel like I should just copy and paste the same argument until August.

Do people really believe these polls mean anything this far out? What has happened since Trump has been the presumptive nominee, and Cruz and Rubio supporters have reluctantly said they'd vote for Trump? It doesn't take a genius to know that the reason his numbers have gone up is because the party has only one person to vote for now.

What do you think will happen when Sanders inevitably throws his unwavering support behind Clinton (people are insane if they think that isn't going to happen once Sanders gets more of his agenda on the Democratic platform - this morning at his rally he didn't mention Hillary once and instead talked about keeping Trump out of the White House)? Her numbers will go up as well with that bump. And then when those bumps even out, we'll see where everything stands after the dust settles. It's laughable that Trump supporters were downplaying the polls when he was losing (badly) and now I see they (not you guys) are quick to point them out now that he is predictably surging.

Not that he can't win, but those 538 guys will be quick to tell you that these polls mean very little so far out.

 

[GoIrish41]

Fox News Poll: Trump tops Clinton, both seen as deeply flawed candidates | Fox News

So this is a very legit poll. 538 gives it a B rating. Her unfavorables are terrible....Trump already survived every attack possible. If anything, I see his favorable numbers going up and her's going down...

Right now, aren't his favorables worse than hers? And she is still in a race for the nomination against a formitable candidate. When she is the presumptive nominee she will get the same kind of bump that caused his numbers to rise recently. I will bet that it will be a bigger bump than he got.

And Hillary has been accused of treason, murder, corruption and any number of other terrible things for decades. Trump has not begun to take the kind of punches she took. And she is no pushover ... she will land her share of punches on him, too. She will demonstrate how much smarter she is than him, how much more prepared she is. All of these things will push his numbers lower, not higher. When Bernie's supporters start coming home (don't make the mistake of thinking most of them won't) her numbers will rise dramatically. We are already dealing with a very difficult map for Trump to navigate as a republican. He would have to sweep the rust belt purple states that have been fairly dependable democratic voters in national elections for multiple cycles.

I don't care what any poll says right now ... It'll all change when she is the nominee. And when it does, Trump will become progressively more ignorant and demeaning and it will hurt him with independents, democrats and a group of republicans who will be further convinced that the party has made a huge mistake in nominating a guy like Trump. This isn't the GOP primary where you can score points by waving the flag, hugging vets, and insulting minority groups. Trump is going to be in a big boy election now and he is going against the grand masters of political gamesmanship. He's going to get crushed against Hillary. And this is coming for a guy who was clamoring for Bernie to get in the race long before he announced. I don't like her much either, but Trump is an awful candidate in so many ways.

 

[kmoose]

Dude, I CLEARLY said that your post was true (which, for some reason, you cut out of the quote). I then said Trump was a giant hypocrite and the same as every other politician that he claims to loathe (which I've said since he first started running). He's a fraud and a hypocrite (among many other things), and I find it hysterical that the woman he supported and praised for so many years is suddenly this awful person when she is the same as she has always been.

I cut it out because I was answering a specific part of your post. I wasn't making a general rebuttal about the whole post, just the specific part about why Trump was cozy with her before, but now he is attacking her. I just think the difference is that now she is a rival for the same office that he is running for.

 

[kmoose]

A rational argument and while I agree that the US will not follow the exact same path, I don't think the states have much power in the US and once you start down the road of socialism it is very difficult if not impossible to reverse course. Additionally, there is no evidence that BS will change course on free college nor has there been any indication that he will listen to anyone. One other important issue is who he will be nominate to the Supreme Court. It certainly will not include any of the judges on the list that Trump issued today.

Anyway, BS will not run as a third party candidate so it is a moot point. Way to late to make that decision. His only chance is if HRC gets indicted and even with that I don't see the Dem establishment nominating him.

The States have a lot more economic power, I think, than Venezuela's. The Fed might control the supply, but there is still plenty out there. Florida will not go bankrupt if the auto industry goes through a downturn, but the citrus market stays strong. Venezuela's economy was largely a one trick pony; that pony being oil, and the Federales owned the oil companies. I'd bet that Venezuela's states had very little to fall back on, if the Federales didn't send them a bunch of money. Our States would certainly feel the sting if the Fed cut off Federal funds, but they would likely survive, and maybe even thrive in some cases.

I don't worry much about the Supreme Court, since I am the beneficiary of White Privilege, and I don't really worry too much about gays and trans and people who are different. I don't like them trying to force me to accept their lifestyle choices as "normal", or them trying to force me to celebrate their choices, but I really don't care if the guy pissing next to me is gay. It doesn't make me gay.

 

[MJ12666]

Right now, aren't his favorables worse than hers? And she is still in a race for the nomination against a formitable candidate. When she is the presumptive nominee she will get the same kind of bump that caused his numbers to rise recently. I will bet that it will be a bigger bump than he got.

No. Link and quote from article today on new poll numbers:

Fox News Poll: Clinton's negatives surpass Trump's | Fox News

By Dana Blanton Published May 18, 2016 FoxNews.com
Facebook568 Twitter1223 livefyre1207 Email Print

American voters dislike Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

A record 61 percent have a negative view of the likely Democratic nominee, according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday. That’s up from 58 percent in March.

Fifty-six percent have an unfavorable view of Trump -- though that’s actually good news for Donald. Because it was 65 percent two months ago (that was a record high).

 

[GoIrish41]

Right now, aren't his favorables worse than hers? And she is still in a race for the nomination against a formitable candidate. When she is the presumptive nominee she will get the same kind of bump that caused his numbers to rise recently. I will bet that it will be a bigger bump than he got.

No. Link and quote from article today on new poll numbers:

Fox News Poll: Clinton's negatives surpass Trump's | Fox News

By Dana Blanton Published May 18, 2016 FoxNews.com
Facebook568 Twitter1223 livefyre1207 Email Print

American voters dislike Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

A record 61 percent have a negative view of the likely Democratic nominee, according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday. That’s up from 58 percent in March.

Fifty-six percent have an unfavorable view of Trump -- though that’s actually good news for Donald. Because it was 65 percent two months ago (that was a record high).

Thanks. I didn't read the article, but my post still stands. I don't think polls mean anything until she settles in as the nominee.