2016 Presidential Horse Race

[connor_in]

The Mythology Of Trump's ‘Working Class’ Support | FiveThirtyEight

 

[dales5050]

I don't think you watched the video. Nowhere did they talk about it's effectiveness. Only the process of getting something like that done.

Admittedly it was a CNN source so I did not put too much effort into it and watch the entire video. I only got to the cinder block segment where they mentioned it would be too labor intensive to build what would be effective. So you have a point there.

That said, I don't think the above had much to do with understanding the comment by phgreek.

I think 'ObamaCare' and 'The Wall' are really good comparisons to each other actually.

'Affordable' Health Insurance ≠ Health Care. That's one of the biggest misconceptions out there. ObamaCare did nothing to make health care more affordable. It just simply defined a path to get more people on health insurance. They are not the same. The Wall is like insurance. It's not actually going to curb illegal immigration. People think it will but it won't.

What was needed for health care was to lower to costs so that it was affordable for people to use. I am not saying giving it away. I am saying getting sick should not bankrupt you.

What is needed for immigration is policy that makes it undesirable to come to the US illegally. Until you remove the why...there is no point to talking about the how.

 

[dublinirish]

What is needed for immigration is policy that makes it undesirable to come to the US illegally. Until you remove the why...there is no point to talking about the how.

it would probably help curb it unscrupulous business owners didn't allow them for cheaper labour for one thing.

 

[RDU Irish]

34 college majors with the highest post-grad unemployment



Not if they will complain about being unemployed

Underemployment and salary ranges are as telling as anything since you are really splitting hairs between 5% and 5.2% unemployment levels.

 

[RDU Irish]

it would probably help curb it unscrupulous business owners didn't allow them for cheaper labour for one thing.

IRS is completely complicit. They issue Tax IDs (starting with a 9) and accept W2s with a different SSN to file taxes under that tax ID. If they don't file, the real owner of that SSN gets hung up for not reporting all of their income and have to go through a mess to disclaim the fraudulent use of their SSN.

How is that the fault of the business again? And if they are aware, how unscrupulous is it to employ people and provide them a means of supporting themselves? Don't hate the player, hate the game.

 

[dales5050]

it would probably help curb it unscrupulous business owners didn't allow them for cheaper labour for one thing.

Well that only happens if people want to pay more for food. But I agree it's an issue.

 

[phgreek]

Hillary Rakes in Nearly $75,000 From Justice Department Employees

...There was once a time where this would not be tolerated. Now the justice Department and the IRS can be openly partisan, and clearly employ decisions along ideological lines...just remember when the tables turn folks...and you stop agreeing with their politics, and YOU become the persecuted...

This is dangerous stuff...where the influence of money is poisonous, the worst part of this is not the money. When you get down to it...it gets at the heart of confidence in government...no not some rating of congresses job through approval ratings, but rather the willingness to be governed and ultimately the foundation of this republic...the implicit deal is the government is a fair arbiter of the work of running the nation, and people pay taxes and abide by the laws. When the government fails here, it causes people to start engaging in violence...or simply ignoring taxes and laws...you simply can't do this.

 

[Armyirish47]

...There was once a time where this would not be tolerated. Now the justice Department and the IRS can be openly partisan, and clearly employ decisions along ideological lines...just remember when the tables turn folks...and you stop agreeing with their politics, and YOU become the persecuted...

This is dangerous stuff...where the influence of money is poisonous, the worst part of this is not the money. When you get down to it...it gets at the heart of confidence in government...no not some rating of congresses job through approval ratings, but rather the willingness to be governed and ultimately the foundation of this republic...the implicit deal is the government is a fair arbiter of the work of running the nation, and people pay taxes and abide by the laws. When the government fails here, it causes people to start engaging in violence...or simply ignoring taxes and laws...you simply can't do this.

228 contributions out of 113,000 + employees......

 

[Ndaccountant]

A different view on explaining, at least in part, why inequality has been on the rise.

http://pareto.uab.es/nguner/ggksPandP-December2013.pdf

For assortative matching to have an impact on
income inequality married females must work.
Married females worked more in 2005 than
1960. The righthand side panel of Figure 4
shows married female labor-force participation
by percentile. As can be seen, across all income
percentiles labor-force participation was higher
in 2005 versus 1960, but the increase is most
precipitous at the highest percentiles. For example,
at the 80th percentile 42 percent of married
women worked in 1960. This rose to 77 percent
in 2005. At the 20th percentile the numbers are
25 and 34 percent. The lefthand side panel of
Figure 4 shows the contribution of the wife’s labor
income to household labor income, again by
percentile. The wife’s contribution to household
labor income is significantly larger in 2005 relative
to 1960. This share rises with the income
percentile. At the 80th percentile the share that
married woman provided to household income
rose from 16 to 34 percent, and from 13 to 25
percent at the 20th percentile.
To examine the impact of married female
labor-force participation (MFLP) and sorting on
income inequality, undertake this thought experiment.
Assume that matching is random in
the years 1960 and 2005 with one twist: assume
that in 1960 married woman participate in
the labor force at their 2005 levels and that in
2005 they work at their 1960 levels. The resulting
Gini coefficients are 0.32 and 0.45. When
matching is random, married female labor-force
participation has a significant dampening effect
on income inequality for the year 2005. Random
sorting works to equalize incomes across
households in 2005 because it diversifies income
across husbands and wives. But, this effect
is only operational to the extent that married
women work. Random matching has less of an
effect in 1960 than in 2005. Incomes are less
polarized in 1960, as Figure 1 and Table 1 both
show.

 

[phgreek]

228 contributions out of 113,000 + employees......

Ah...i see so the existence of this issue has Not manifested in an malfeasance from The DOJ or The IRS...Sure. And the percentages are so small...why be concerned?

Just remember that stance....when the DOJ under a Republican targets non profits...hell planned parenthood deserves to be heavily scrutinzed NOW...can you imagine that witch hunt?

DID YOU CONTRIBUTE TO POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS?...I'm presuming you were are active duty army.

 

[irishfan]

Exclusive: Trump surges in support, almost even with Clinton in national U.S. poll | Reuters

The results could signal a close fight between the two likely White House rivals as Americans make up their minds ahead of the Nov. 8 election to succeed Democratic President Barack Obama. As recently as last week, Clinton led Trump by around 13 points in the poll.

In the most recent survey, 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, the Democratic front-runner, and 40 percent backed Trump, with 19 percent not decided on either yet, according to the online poll of 1,289 people conducted from Friday to Tuesday. The poll had a credibility interval of about 3 percentage points.

He is closing the gap in every poll at a pretty astounding rate.

 

[connor_in]

WV: Hillary loses 2/3 of support from 2008 - The American MirrorThe American Mirror

 

[Armyirish47]

Ah...i see so the existence of this issue has Not manifested in an malfeasance from The DOJ or The IRS...Sure. And the percentages are so small...why be concerned?

Just remember that stance....when the DOJ under a Republican targets non profits...hell planned parenthood deserves to be heavily scrutinzed NOW...can you imagine that witch hunt?

DID YOU CONTRIBUTE TO POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS?...I'm presuming you were are active duty army.

I'm not making a stance, just pointing out how small that number of contributors is. Lies, damned lies, statistics, and jazz hands.

According to this article I just googled President Bush received over $42,000 from DOJ employees while running in 2000. (cue dramatic music!)

Federal Workers Stuffing Campaign Coffers - latimes

Was active duty, currently reserves, no contributions to political campaigns. I pushed my CFC dollars to The Human Fund.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

WV: Hillary loses 2/3 of support from 2008 - The American MirrorThe American Mirror

That was expected, given her comments on coal.

ETA: Maybe not the magnitude of drop, I guess. But she was known to have a problem with the coal industry, which is very large there.

 

[connor_in]

Dear Hillary...

 

[connor_in]

Bernie Sanders: Nominating Hillary Clinton would be 'disaster' for party, nation - Washington Times

In a fundraising email to supporters, Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver cited recent polls showing the Vermont senator performing better against Republican Donald Trump in general election match-ups. Recent surveys have shown Mrs. Clinton virtually tied with Mr. Trump in the key battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

Citing those troubling figures, Mr. Weaver said the Democratic Party — and its superdelegates who are free to support either candidate — must reject Mrs. Clinton and embrace Mr. Sanders, or face a crushing defeat in November.

“For months, Bernie Sanders has out-polled Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump, and often by extraordinarily large margins. Because we must do everything we can to defeat Trump in November, our mission is to win as many pledged delegates as we can between now and June 14,” when the primary season ends, Mr. Weaver said. “Then we’re going to have a contested convention where the Democratic Party must decide if they want the candidate with the momentum who is best positioned to beat Trump, or if they are willing to roll the dice and court disaster simply to protect the status quo for the political and financial establishment of this country.”

 

[connor_in]

Divine intervention? Indian Hindus ask gods to help Trump

 

[NDinL.A.]

Exclusive: Trump surges in support, almost even with Clinton in national U.S. poll | Reuters

He is closing the gap in every poll at a pretty astounding rate.

Again, it doesn't matter until Sanders is out and he throws his support behind Clinton. Polls right now, per just about everyone who does this for a living, are close to meaningless. Trump has gotten his "I'm alone now, get behind me GOP" bump that was entirely predictable, and Clinton will get her predictable bump next month or so. And then when it dies down, the polls will be much more important/reliable IMO.

 

[GoIrish41]

Again, it doesn't matter until Sanders is out and he throws his support behind Clinton. Polls right now, per just about everyone who does this for a living, are close to meaningless. Trump has gotten his "I'm alone now, get behind me GOP" bump that was entirely predictable, and Clinton will get her predictable bump next month or so. And then when it dies down, the polls will be much more important/reliable IMO.

Let 'em have their moment NDinLA ... If they get their hopes up, it will just sting all the more when Hillary inevitably wins.

 

[connor_in]

saw this on twitter:


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/MEZsEoPl8E">pic.twitter.com/MEZsEoPl8E</a></p>— Political Math (@politicalmath) <a href="https://twitter.com/politicalmath/status/730472681607299072">May 11, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[connor_in]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We could have had it all America <a href="https://t.co/bXcvgX6ahk">pic.twitter.com/bXcvgX6ahk</a></p>— Stephen Miller (@redsteeze) <a href="https://twitter.com/redsteeze/status/730405977850294273">May 11, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[connor_in]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/iix2t0zulVM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Ndaccountant]

Again, it doesn't matter until Sanders is out and he throws his support behind Clinton. Polls right now, per just about everyone who does this for a living, are close to meaningless. Trump has gotten his "I'm alone now, get behind me GOP" bump that was entirely predictable, and Clinton will get her predictable bump next month or so. And then when it dies down, the polls will be much more important/reliable IMO.

Will she though, at least as big as what you are hinting?

The big difference is that Trump was the "outsider" and the GOP establishment can now only sit it out or get behind him. However, Sanders is the "outsider", who has had tremendous amount of success running on populist measures that Clinton tepidly supports or is the antithesis of. If he was about rallying the troops, he would have dropped out by now, no? I think what is most likely to happen is that Sanders gives a speech at the convention saying that Clinton is by far the better option than Trump, but will not throw all his support towards her. If he does, than what good was his message?

 

[Irish YJ]

Let 'em have their moment NDinLA ... If they get their hopes up, it will just sting all the more when Hillary inevitably wins.

Unless Sanders runs as an independent...
I'd say that the Trump-Bump is not over. I think you will see more Rs come around over the next month or so. Once the big debates start to occur, anything could happen IMO. You also have the Hillary email scandal still brewing which could have an impact depending on the outcome. I also don't think Trump's populist movement is anywhere close to peaking.

If I were to bet, I'd bet Hilary in a close one but I wouldn't bet much. I'd rather not bet, and just enjoy the show.

 

[kmoose]

Let 'em have their moment NDinLA ... If they get their hopes up, it will just sting all the more when Hillary inevitably wins.

It's nice to know that the thought of the country losing is enough to make you smile.

 

[GoIrish41]

It's nice to know that the thought of the country losing is enough to make you smile.

Like Trump would be a great win for the country. Give me a break. The thought of guys like you losing though ... Pure Joy! Thanks for trying to pick an argument over what was obviously a joke.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

SIAP

Few stand in Trump’s way as he piles up the Four-Pinocchio whoppers

 

[Irish YJ]

SIAP

Few stand in Trump’s way as he piles up the Four-Pinocchio whoppers

Brought to you by Pravda on the Potomac lol..

 

[GoIrish41]

Unless Sanders runs as an independent...
I'd say that the Trump-Bump is not over. I think you will see more Rs come around over the next month or so. Once the big debates start to occur, anything could happen IMO. You also have the Hillary email scandal still brewing which could have an impact depending on the outcome. I also don't think Trump's populist movement is anywhere close to peaking.

If I were to bet, I'd bet Hilary in a close one but I wouldn't bet much. I'd rather not bet, and just enjoy the show.

Trump bump may not be over but he hasn't caught up yet and the Hillary bump hasn't even begun yet. No way Bernie runs as an independent. And. Once the debates begin Trump will be exposed as a moron when he has to go toe to toe someone who understands policy like Hillary -- especially after all the idiotic crap he's said in the primaries and the subsequent flip flops. All of this and the electoral map is more than daunting for the GOP this year. The fact that he alienated Latinos, women, African Americans, Muslims and god knows who else makes his chances near zero to win IMO.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Brought to you by Pravda on the Potomac lol..

You can dispute the things they choose to fact check. But their fact checks (complete with links and sources) are solid.