Your Loyola preview... GAME IS AT 2:30 TOMORROW ON ESPN2!
Loyola is probably the most well rounded team in the tournament. They defend well and play great offense. There isn't one area of their team that you can look at and say they are "poor" in that area. So let's start with what they do especially well.
What Loyola does well: Loyola's success this year starts with their balance on attack. Mike Sawyer and Eric Lusby give them a righty-lefty combo of high percentage shooters. Lusby is a converted midfielder who is a bit more catch-and-shoot, but he's also a bit more apt to pass than Sawyer. Sawyer is a little better dodging to create his shots. Their linemate is the pass-first Justin Ward who does a very good job of distributing the ball to their scorers. Complimenting them is a 1st line of midfielders who are all well-rounded players who are great passers. What this leads to is an EMO that clicks at 48% and a settled offense that tends to generate high percentage looks that Sawyer and Lusby finish. On top of that, their defensive midfield is quite good... led by Scott Ratliff who is a stud who can both defend and score at a very high level. Their transition game is great and they are the best faceoff team left in the tournament.
What Loyola does poorly: This biggest glaring issue with Loyola is their depth. It's hard to poke holes in their team, but they over-play their 1st line of midfielders with only spot duty from a second line... whereas Notre Dame plays 3 full lines of midfielders. This is the kind of game where if it gets up tempo and Notre Dame can stay even at the faceoff X the lack of depth for Loyola could really burn them in the 4th quarter... it's supposed to be 85 in Foxoboro tomorrow which isn't oppressive but it also isn't cool. On top of that, Loyola's goalie is solid but he's no John Kemp... so there is a very decided advantage in our favor there.
What to watch for: Faceoffs will play a huge factor in this game as Notre Dame controlling possession would likely spell doom for Loyola, whereas Loyola jumping out to an early lead might do the same for ND. The bottom line is Loyola has become incredibly dependent recently on scoring in transition or specialty situations to get their goals. I think they only had 4 settled 6-on-6 goals against a crappy Denver defense last week, and Notre Dame simply doesn't foul. With Loyola's tough midfield defense, the Notre Dame attack will have to play at a high level if Notre Dame doesn't get enough ball possession to effectively use our depth. Westy Hopkins, Connor Doyle, and Sean Rogers must finish open looks if they get them.
Prediction: ND 9 Loyola 7. I don't think Loyola is ready for the moment. All of their interviews seem very arrogant and you can't overstate ND's "big game" experience edge on the Greyhounds. Also, Loyola has looked awful so far in the tournament and lucked out to get past Denver. Loyola has only played one team this year with a "good" defense and that was Johns Hopkins... who really handled them all game before Loyola went on a late run... but Hopkins still persevered. No matter what way you try to break down this game, in my mind it keeps coming back to the fact that Loyola's scoring is predicated on getting open looks and the one thing Notre Dame does better than anyone is not give up open looks. Ward is no Steele Stanwick level quarterback. Lusby is no Chris Bocklett level inside-out finisher. Mike Sawyer is dynamic, but even if he gets 3+... who else is going to step up for them? I just don't see it because Notre Dame doesn't foul and has an athletic midfield really capable of limiting transition. Maybe they'll get a couple off of faceoffs, but I just don't think it's enough assuming ND's offense continues to show up to a reasonable level. The one thing ND does struggle to defend is a dominant crease attackman coupled with powerful outside shooting midfielders... and Loyola frankly doesn't have an inside presence. Both Sawyer and Lusby are more 6-and-6 style guys.
So in summary, Vegas has Loyola as a 1.5 goal favorite... and I think it should be the other way around. As long as ND stays above 45% on the faceoffs we should be able to pull the upset... if we dip below 25% we'll almost surely lose.
