What is"more often than not" as a percentage? Wouldn't that be > 50%
Depends. If you are a simpleton and think recruits choosing between ND and the other 120+ schools is a simple 'this or that' equation, then yes, I suppose you could say that.
If you look at it a little deeper, you'd say we are really competing with probably 40 programs for the top talent, so if the odds are 1:40 and we're hitting close to 50%, I'd say that's more often than not.
If you assume we should have better odds because we signed a sibling, then what should we expect, 3x better odds or roughly 1/10? Still qualifies as "more often than not"?
If you'd like to prove a point: do an analysis of all siblings in a single sport over the past 10-15 years and determine what the average "retention" rate is for all the schools. Maybe do a regression analysis looking at other factors like geography and offers to determine if retention was a possibility, then you should be on the right path.
But I guess it's easier to say "Siblings rarely work out".