Dec 29 | Champs Sports Bowl vs. Florida State

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HereComeTheIrish

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Im not so stoked about this game. Tommy Rees really scares me in this situation. Can some one talk me up and give me some good reasonoing why we have a good shot at winning?

Brah, you're act is growing a bit tiresome. Put on your big boy pants and grow a set. You'll be ok. I promise. This is big time football, not a chess match down in the park. FSU's gonna line up and ND's gonna line up and get after it. If you want guarantees, go bet on Dieter not winning 10 games in his collegiate career. ND/FSU are going to give everything they have for 60 minutes come thursday. How's that? I've provided you with a guarantee and with that is a reason for us having a shot at winning.
 

arrowryan

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Brah, you're act is growing a bit tiresome. Put on your big boy pants and grow a set. You'll be ok. I promise. This is big time football, not a chess match down in the park. FSU's gonna line up and ND's gonna line up and get after it. If you want guarantees, go bet on Dieter not winning 10 games in his collegiate career. ND/FSU are going to give everything they have for 60 minutes come thursday. How's that? I've provided you with a guarantee and with that is a reason for us having a shot at winning.

Good enough. I sure hope we punch FSU right in the mouth!
 

phork

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The only guarantee I have is that ND wins walking away.
 

arrowryan

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I do like the fact that Brian Kelly had a month to prepare for this game. Also, the off the field issues for FSU will help as well
 

Old Man Mike

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If you want to look for some early signs of how the day might go:

A). both the FSU defensive line [their strength] and the ND offensive line [in my opinion our strength] have been talking to reporters about one another, saying that this mano-a-mano match-up is what they play for. These guys have been very respectful about their opponents, but you can see the gleam in their eyes. Watch what happens there. Can Golic stand up?? Can Dever stand up?? Can ND get Wood some openings and will he hit them hard?? Will the #2 back have any production?? Stopping watching the ball every play might give you some inside sense of how this is going early.

B). Rees gets rid of the ball quickly; and Hendrix can, and must, too. This should mitigate the FSU rush somewhat. All of the FSU D-Line said that Rees is hard to sack because the ball's usually gone. If Tommy and Andrew can run the Kelly dart-thrower offense with proper reads, the strength of FSU will be marginalized. Perhaps easier said than done, but in theory the Kelly offense is built to negate effectiveness of pass-rushers.

C). Defensively for us, FSU has stunk in many areas on offense, and we need to keep our fingers crossed that this is not a better EJManuel game. If he is "ordinary" or less, they won't score much unless we give them short fields. Our D-Line should win the line of scrimmage. If Diaco has a good plan for the linebackers, then our DBs should be plenty good enough to do their part. If the D-Line wins, we probably win (with no turnovers).

D). FSU is a decent team, but this game is about how Notre Dame functions. If we get proper reads and no turnovers, we move the ball. They are scared of Eifert and Floyd. They have said so. I seriously doubt that they believe they can defend them with "island corners", which means we will have a numbers advantage somewhere each play.

E). The game is somewhat about EJManuel as well. Does he have his head right? Can Diaco confuse him? Can Lynch et al rough him up? Can the linebackers guard somebody close enough that he's not confident in pulling the trigger?

There are all sorts of ways we can win this game and all sorts of ways we can lose it. Who's "burning without" and "ice cool" within --- as Harbaugh said: playing with confidence and cruelty --- will win.
 

phork

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Floyd in the Southern Peruvian dialect means "Torch the FSU secondary to the tune of 219 yards and 3 TDs"

Eifert using the Midwestern Hungarian slang means "To eat poor LBs for lunch"

Just in case you didn't know.
 

NDinFL

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Floyd in the Southern Peruvian dialect means "Torch the FSU secondary to the tune of 219 yards and 3 TDs"

Eifert using the Midwestern Hungarian slang means "To eat poor LBs for lunch"

Just in case you didn't know.

Damn phork, I'm diggin the optimism
 
B

Buster Bluth

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A). both the FSU defensive line [their strength] and the ND offensive line [in my opinion our strength] have been talking to reporters about one another, saying that this mano-a-mano match-up is what they play for. These guys have been very respectful about their opponents, but you can see the gleam in their eyes. Watch what happens there. Can Golic stand up?? Can Dever stand up?? Can ND get Wood some openings and will he hit them hard?? Will the #2 back have any production?? Stopping watching the ball every play might give you some inside sense of how this is going early.

I would feel a lot more confident about this game if Cave were playing. If I'm Florida State I am blitzing inside all day. I do not think Golic is anywhere near good enough to hang with Florida State's defense. I hope he improved a ton over the last month or so.
 
G

Grahambo

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Taking a quick look at some stats, these two teams are not far apart from one another.

ND is 34th in passing and FSU is 35th
FSU is 99th in rushing so they are one dimensional. FSU scores 1.7 points more then we do and their defense allows 5 less points although playing Charleston Southern kinda helps.

We thought Rees is erratic but looking at EJ Manuel's numbers, he is not all that different then Rees.

In 104 LESS pass attempts, Manuel has 4 less INTs (12-8), comparable completion percentage, with a difference in YPA. (8.63-7.05)

The big stat that stood out was in sacks. He has been sacked 28 times this year. With games against Charleston Southern and Louisiana Monroe, that's quite a bit.

Manuel is coming off his worst month of the season and stats show he is worse off in the 2nd half.

I think we have a really good chance in this game. We also have the momentum of having Te'o announce his return along with Lynch and Nix getting excited to be playing back home. With FSU having 3 arrests in the past week, mentally, we seem to be in better shape. If we can get out early like we did against Miami last year, this could be a really good game for us.
 

Sherm Sticky

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irishff1014

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We need Toma to be good in this game. With them trying to double cover bot Floyd and Eifert he will have his chances to make some big plays. Grahambo and old man mike made some good points as well. One other thing we will have is a healthy Manti.
 

NYMIKE6

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The "WIN" could hinge on the play of our center Jr. needs to step up big for us. If our O-line limits the pressure to a minimum we could force the hand of FSU.
 

IrishLax

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In other news..... FSU is starting 4 frosh on the OL for this game. Diaco needs to dial up some blitzes... I think we can get to the passer here if we're aggressive and playing conservative might get us burnt.
 

BurningRiver

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In other news..... FSU is starting 4 frosh on the OL for this game. Diaco needs to dial up some blitzes... I think we can get to the passer here if we're aggressive and playing conservative might get us burnt.


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Whiskeyjack

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ND Offense:
Overall- 18
Rushing- 10
Passing- 34
Standard Downs- 16
Passing Downs- 18

FSU Defense:
Overall- 6
Rushing- 9
Passing- 18
Standard Downs- 11
Passing Downs- 18

FSU Offense:
Overall- 50
Rushing- 57
Passing- 48
Standard Downs- 33
Passing Downs- 41

ND Defense:
Overall- 12
Rushing- 3
Passing- 28
Standard Downs- 14
Passing Downs- 24

As you can see, ND's offense v. FSU's defense is a pretty even match-up, but the converse is not true. FSU will really struggle to move the ball against our defense. Assuming Kelly has prepared Rees to deal with the mixture of blitzing and drop 8 that stymied him several times in the 2nd half of the season, ND should win comfortably.

How do we lose? Turnovers and special teams. FSU's ST are #1 in the nation, while ND's are only 42.
 

IrishLax

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ND Offense:
Overall- 18
Rushing- 10
Passing- 34
Standard Downs- 16
Passing Downs- 18

FSU Defense:
Overall- 6
Rushing- 9
Passing- 18
Standard Downs- 11
Passing Downs- 18

FSU Offense:
Overall- 50
Rushing- 57
Passing- 48
Standard Downs- 33
Passing Downs- 41

ND Defense:
Overall- 12
Rushing- 3
Passing- 28
Standard Downs- 14
Passing Downs- 24

As you can see, ND's offense v. FSU's defense is a pretty even match-up, but the converse is not true. FSU will really struggle to move the ball against our defense. Assuming Kelly has prepared Rees to deal with the mixture of blitzing and drop 8 that stymied him several times in the 2nd half of the season, ND should win comfortably.

How do we lose? Turnovers and special teams. FSU's ST are #1 in the nation, while ND's are only 42.

Winner winner chicken dinner.... if this turns into a defensive battle we lose the punting war. And Turnover Tommy scares me with the inside pressure they are likely to bring... he seems to get so rattled when he is getting hit.
 

Whiskeyjack

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Winner winner chicken dinner.... if this turns into a defensive battle we lose the punting war. And Turnover Tommy scares me with the inside pressure they are likely to bring... he seems to get so rattled when he is getting hit.

I'd much rather be the team that's favored to win according to the major metrics instead of having to rely on TOs and STs.
 

IrishLax

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I'd much rather be the team that's favored to win according to the major metrics instead of having to rely on TOs and STs.

Really? Because the Packers are 14-1 this year despite giving up more yards than they've gained.

Why aren't they a .500 team? Because Aaron Rodgers has thrown something like 48 TDs to 6 INTs... and they don't commit penalties... and they cause turnovers. So winning the yardage battle doesn't always correlate well with winning the ball game. If FSU only has to go 15 yards to get in field goal range and we have to march 50... their odds of winning go way up.
 

Old Man Mike

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FSUs offense is REALLY dependent on two things: A). Manuel having a good game running and passing; and B). long plays. These guys haven't been good at sustaining hard-fought drives. Diaco tends to make teams have to make long hard-fought drives. And Harrison usually stops the long play success. [I do not consider a 15 yard completion where Harrison has to clean up some linebacker's blown coverage a "long play", but rather a long play prevented].

Still, Diaco has to juggle how much blitzing et al to do, since we have a highly mobile QB as an opponent, and one who will try to escape and throw long during the scramble. We need surprise more than just blitzing, I think. I also think that when blitzing, we need to blitz with our faster ground-coverers [but not Harrison], so that we actually run him down. If we "release the Kraken [Lynch]" then I'd like to see the OLB on his side keeping contain, and let Aaron have not much else on his mind but smearing Manuel.
 
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