Hypothetically, if the Colts end up with the number 1 pick, do they even take Luck? Assuming Manning is back next year at 100% that is.
The Colts have talent, but with all five of the Colts' 2011 probowlers over 30yo (Peyton-35, Mathis-30, Freeney-31, Wayne-32, Saturday-36) how much more do the Colts have in the tank?
The issue then becomes less cut and dry. Most people assume that since Luck is the best NFL prospect to come out in a while, he will automatically go to the team with the first pick.
Will Manning be open to using such a high draft pick for his successor? Or will he be more amenable to filling the DT gap, addressing the cornerback issues, or looking at the O-Line woes, or... etc etc etc. Essentially if you are the Colts the question becomes, "Do we try to win in the 'Manning' window now, or do we look to win tomorrow?"
Along with most of you I am sure, I personally believe the reason the Colts are the Colts (and to a lesser extent the Pats are the Pats) is the quarterback play. Draft Luck. Ensure you have your Manning of the future. In a pass driven league, you must have the right Captain at the helm.
Then... for the love of God... fill some gaps on that roster.