Week 2: ND vs UM Predictions

[GoldenDomer2357]

ND will contain the QB. He can't be stopped, but he can be contained. Defense steps up like last week. 27-9 ND.

 

[The Polish Irishman]

Jeez..on the road at nite..UM 31 ND 17...that hurts to type. I must be smokin the same stuff as NDOM

 

[Sherm Sticky]

Jeez..on the road at nite..UM 31 ND 17...that hurts to type. I must be smokin the same stuff as NDOM

That's the score I picked...You need to select a different score TPI

 

[ErieIrish13]

34-13 ND.

Denard doesnt play well and the UM offense never gets going.

Floyd has a good game and Cierre has 150+ yds.

 

[NDMontana]

I think Hoke lets Robinson run if it exploits NDs second and third level speed on the perimeter. Win is the name of the game. Hoke has all season to install his offense.

Yes winning is the name of the game but the question is short term vs. long term gain. Hoke only has the season, spring ball and fall practice to coach his team on the nuances of his system. You waste one week installing a one game gimmik offense and you lose about 10% of your annual allotment of time with your players. Is it more important for Hoke to wing it week to week just to win or is it better to perhaps lose 6 or 7 games this year so that you might win 8, 9 or 10 in 2012 and 2013?
This is the problem with high expectations of overnight turnarounds for college football coaches. They don't fire coaches and bring in someone with the exact scheme that didn't work under the previous staff. The coach then has to install his schemes with personal suited for the previous scheme and if it doesn't work by year three, he's gone, too.

 

[BurningRiver]

The ramifications of this game are so huge I'm terrified. If we lose and sink to 0-2, it'll be absolutely devastating. If we win, it'll be like a new season.

Like I've said before I won't be watching it live, rather around midnight after I get back from my homecoming. So I really don't want to be up til 3 AM only to see us lose on a heartbreaking field goal.

I'll say ND 28-24. I don't expect this to be a blowout either way, but I feel like it could come down to a last second field goal or defensive stand, and I don't know if my heart can take it

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I think Hoke lets Robinson run if it exploits NDs second and third level speed on the perimeter. Win is the name of the game. Hoke has all season to install his offense.

I keep reading this sort of thing from optimistic Michigan fans, and it makes me smile.

How exactly does Hoke "let" Robinson run? Under D!ckRod's spread option offense, the ball was almost always in Denard's hands, and the spread opened up lots of running lanes for him to exploit.

Hoke runs a pro-style, which he has been installing since he got the job. We didn't see much in the way of spread formations or principles against W. Michigan. Thus, if Hoke wants to "let" Robinson run, he basically has to call a designed QB run. That's not nearly as scary as having Shoelaces in position to improvise on every play with his legs.

 

[rikkitikki08]

I keep reading this sort of thing from optimistic Michigan fans, and it makes me smile.

How exactly does Hoke "let" Robinson run? Under D!ckRod's spread option offense, the ball was almost always in Denard's hands, and the spread opened up lots of running lanes for him to exploit.

Hoke runs a pro-style, which he has been installing since he got the job. We didn't see much in the way of spread formations or principles against W. Michigan. Thus, if Hoke wants to "let" Robinson run, he basically has to call a designed QB run. That's not nearly as scary as having Shoelaces in position to improvise on every play with his legs.

This, i agree 100 percent. A designed run can be stopped easily...we just have to cover our area and we should be fine.

 

[irishff1014]

The defense needs to see Stay home or contain every wheres. Just to remind them thats what need to happen,

 

[irishtrinity]

NO SOFT CORNERS... AND WIN THE GAME FOR THE GIPPER......

I've got to go, Rock. It's all right. I'm not afraid. Some time, Rock, when the team is up against it, when things are wrong and the breaks are beating the boys, ask them to go in there with all they've got and win just one for the Gipper. I don't know where I'll be then, Rock. But I'll know about it, and I'll be happy.

same way i feel... forever IRISH...

 

[GO IRISH!!!]

I am turning over a new leaf. As I swore the other day, no predictions for me. I plan to watch this game with the wife at our little mountain retreat. If things get bad (like last week) I can go out in the middle of my property and scream at the top of my lungs and I won't bother anyone. When we are at our home in suburbia, my game day behavior when things don't go well can often lead to a visit from our local PD.

Plus, since I am at such altitude in the mountains, I can get A LOT drunker, A LOT quicker!

 

[irishtrinity]

i thought alls well in ND land then rip my head about popped... forward progress!!!???

Definition: The location to which a ball carrier's forward momentum carries him before he is tackled.

Examples:
At the end of a play, the football is spotted at the point where the ball carriers forward progress is stopped, even if he is pushed backward by the defenders.

nothing about a knee down?

 

[fitz_bu47]

I haven't posted since the usf game b/c I have been vomiting non-stop.......J/k......here's the deal, USF is a good team, not great, but pretty good. They are also very well coached, and you can't GIVEaway points 3+ times and beat a GOOD team. Saturday was very frustrating, I hadn't been this excited for a season in a long time, but all is not lost, for sure. I don't think we were all wrong about this team. I don't think the pundits were either.....
Bounce Back.
ND-34 UM-21......We run the ball well and Tommy makes a couple plays. Hoke's offense helps us to contain Denard, and they aren't ready to have success against our D w/ this new style, w/ the way they are recruiting it will be a war in the future, but I think we get em this time....Gotta handle the lights/atmosphere though, may be THE key.

 

[NDMontana]

This, i agree 100 percent. A designed run can be stopped easily...we just have to cover our area and we should be fine.

Yes, but it's not that hard to put in put in run/pass option plays which will look a pass to defenses but can be a run if the QB reads it that way. Think VaTech circa Vick's one season there: he was a legitimate pocket passer that was given the option to run every play. Robinson is no Vick, but he can throw well enough if the defense is going to play man coverage in order to contain him at the line of scrimmage.

 

[johnnyumfan]

Yes winning is the name of the game but the question is short term vs. long term gain. Hoke only has the season, spring ball and fall practice to coach his team on the nuances of his system. You waste one week installing a one game gimmik offense and you lose about 10% of your annual allotment of time with your players. Is it more important for Hoke to wing it week to week just to win or is it better to perhaps lose 6 or 7 games this year so that you might win 8, 9 or 10 in 2012 and 2013?
This is the problem with high expectations of overnight turnarounds for college football coaches. They don't fire coaches and bring in someone with the exact scheme that didn't work under the previous staff. The coach then has to install his schemes with personal suited for the previous scheme and if it doesn't work by year three, he's gone, too.

Hey, dude, did you watch any of the WM/UM game. Hoke didn't abandon the spread totally. You can bet your bottom dollar that the current UM OC looked at last year's UM/ND game to see which spread plays, specificly that envolved Denard Robinson's running, which burned the Irish defense. Hoke would be stupid to let the Irish off easy by not running Denard plus his new plays featuring the tailbacks.

What Hoke is doing is ADAPTING to the UNIQUE talent he has in DR until he recruits his type of QB. You don't throw the baby out with the bathwater by trying to make Denard strickly a drop back passer.

Hoke wants to blend parts of the spread with a pro style west coast offense with Denard. By the end of the season, Hoke hopes to have a more balanced running attack featuring the tailback more to cut down on the pounding Denard takes.

 

[BurningRiver]

Hey, dude, did you watch any of the WM/UM game. Hoke didn't abandon the spread totally. You can bet your bottom dollar that the current UM OC looked at last year's UM/ND game to see which spread plays, specificly that envolved Denard Robinson's running, which burned the Irish defense. Hoke would be stupid to let the Irish off easy by not running Denard plus his new plays featuring the tailbacks.

What Hoke is doing is ADAPTING to the UNIQUE talent he has in DR until he recruits his type of QB. You don't throw the baby out with the bathwater by trying to make Denard strickly a drop back passer.

Hoke wants to blend parts of the spread with a pro style west coast offense with Denard. By the end of the season, Hoke hopes to have a more balanced running attack featuring the tailback more to cut down on the pounding Denard takes.

I agree. As much as we would all like for Denard to be tied down by Hoke, there's no way Hoke is stupid enough to ignore the fact that our defense doesn't have enough speed to consistently keep up with Robinson, and also notice the fact that Denard lit our defense on fire last year. I agree that the pro-style offense will tie him down slightly, but there's no way you can sit back and think for even a second that Hoke will just ignore his biggest weapon and best chance of beating us. He's not that thick-skulled

 

[irishff1014]

I didn't know this but they were just saying on Espn that one of Michigan's linebacker scored 2 touchdowns. So their offense only scored 20 of the 34 points. nice.

 

[Riddickulous]

I didn't know this but they were just saying on Espn that one of Michigan's linebacker scored 2 touchdowns. So their offense only scored 20 of the 34 points. nice.

Their offense only ran 39 plays.

 

[irishff1014]

Herby was just on espnnews and was rough on kelly. Said he doesn't think that going to Rees is the right move. He said when the commited to him being the starter they should have stayed with it. I sure hope Kelly is making the right move.

 

[NDMontana]

Hey, dude, did you watch any of the WM/UM game. Hoke didn't abandon the spread totally. You can bet your bottom dollar that the current UM OC looked at last year's UM/ND game to see which spread plays, specificly that envolved Denard Robinson's running, which burned the Irish defense. Hoke would be stupid to let the Irish off easy by not running Denard plus his new plays featuring the tailbacks.

What Hoke is doing is ADAPTING to the UNIQUE talent he has in DR until he recruits his type of QB. You don't throw the baby out with the bathwater by trying to make Denard strickly a drop back passer.

Hoke wants to blend parts of the spread with a pro style west coast offense with Denard. By the end of the season, Hoke hopes to have a more balanced running attack featuring the tailback more to cut down on the pounding Denard takes.

You, evidently, haven't read much of what I have said. No, I didn't watch scUM's game because I'm not impressed by dUMb beating up on second tier schools from a third tier state.
You want a prediction: Hoke is a moron surpassed only by Denerd. ND 42 scUM 13. And after the game you'll be mUM.

 

[BurningRiver]

Herby was just on espnnews and was rough on kelly. Said he doesn't think that going to Rees is the right move. He said when the commited to him being the starter they should have stayed with it. I sure hope Kelly is making the right move.

I'm sure this has something to do with his offseason of anointing Dayne as an "NFL Quarterback" and his prediction on gameday that Crist would have a huge game against USF

 

[amazinblue]

I keep reading this sort of thing from optimistic Michigan fans, and it makes me smile...

Hoke runs a pro-style, which he has been installing since he got the job. We didn't see much in the way of spread formations or principles against W. Michigan. Thus, if Hoke wants to "let" Robinson run, he basically has to call a designed QB run. That's not nearly as scary as having Shoelaces in position to improvise on every play with his legs.

Whiskeyjack,

I'm glad it makes you smile...

What you should expect to see from Michigan on Saturday is a lot of "north - south" running out of a pro-set - behind a decent (not great, but decent) O line. You'll see one or two tight end formations a LOT of the game, and a fair share of sets that have three receivers. The challenge for ND will be adjusting to the variety of looks that Michigan will pose - both on O and on D.

The "improvisation" of Denard Robinson (DR) will come when the receivers are covered and a seam develops to one end of the line - that is when DR can take off and gain five, ten, or more yards - on a broken play. There will probably be some designed QB draws - but not too many. And, a few misdirections that will challenge the ND D to follow the ball, whether DR keeps it or not.

So, how good has DR gotten at faking the hand-off - that will be something to look for and notice.

Oh, there's one other thing to think about for the ND Offense - and that thing is - how effectively will Michigan's D be able to "hide" the blitz. If Michigan's able to convince Rees that a blitz is coming - and then fall back into coverage - or, vice-versa; it may present some challenges to the ND passing game. I do think the ND O line will be able to provide time for Rees if no blitz is coming. Will the Michigan LB's be able to keep Woods production down to a reasonable level - and based on what's being said here, that would mean under 150 yards.

 

[Rambler09]

Whiskeyjack,

I'm glad it makes you smile...

What you should expect to see from Michigan on Saturday is a lot of "north - south" running out of a pro-set - behind a decent (not great, but decent) O line. You'll see one or two tight end formations a LOT of the game, and a fair share of sets that have three receivers. The challenge for ND will be adjusting to the variety of looks that Michigan will pose - both on O and on D.

The "improvisation" of Denard Robinson (DR) will come when the receivers are covered and a seam develops to one end of the line - that is when DR can take off and gain five, ten, or more yards - on a broken play. There will probably be some designed QB draws - but not too many. And, a few misdirections that will challenge the ND D to follow the ball, whether DR keeps it or not.

So, how good has DR gotten at faking the hand-off - that will be something to look for and notice.

Oh, there's one other thing to think about for the ND Offense - and that thing is - how effectively will Michigan's D be able to "hide" the blitz. If Michigan's able to convince Rees that a blitz is coming - and then fall back into coverage - or, vice-versa; it may present some challenges to the ND passing game. I do think the ND O line will be able to provide time for Rees if no blitz is coming. Will the Michigan LB's be able to keep Woods production down to a reasonable level - and based on what's being said here, that would mean under 150 yards.

Amazinblue, this all sounds about right (although I don't think many fans really expect Cierre to rush for 150). My biggest concerns for the game- assuming that we don't turn the ball over the way we did last game- are Denard Robinson and the atmosphere of the first ever night game at the big house. I think that the later will be better now with Rees at the reins, as he tends to be very calm and composed under pressure. Denard is still a huge concern. I'm honestly more afraid of broken plays than of the designed plays- because on broken plays our players will be on their heals instead of sniffing the play out from the beginning. Anway, it's always nice to have reasonable fans contributing to the discussion.

 

[ulukinatme]

Amazinblue, this all sounds about right (although I don't think many fans really expect Cierre to rush for 150). My biggest concerns for the game- assuming that we don't turn the ball over the way we did last game- are Denard Robinson and the atmosphere of the first ever night game at the big house. I think that the later will be better now with Rees at the reins, as he tends to be very calm and composed under pressure. Denard is still a huge concern. I'm honestly more afraid of broken plays than of the designed plays- because on broken plays our players will be on their heals instead of sniffing the play out from the beginning. Anway, it's always nice to have reasonable fans contributing to the discussion.

I agree, everything said was pretty sound. It's going to be a hard fought game on both sides I think. For our sakes, I hope we improve ball control this Saturday, we should be fine then. It's good to see respectable fans from other teams on boards like this, the added perspective is interesting and keeps discussions from getting boring. I'm over on BuckeyePlanet myself, although sometimes they're more friendly to Michigan fans there than Notre Dame fans...it's sad

 

[amazinblue]

Rambler, Thanks for the compliment. I think one of the nice things about sites like this is a chance to discuss - really discuss issues / items that are relevant and could make a difference.

I would expect every ND fan to want (or hope) for a win; as I would expect the same of Michigan fans - like myself.

Your view of the ND D being on their heels is key. DR is special, but - as several teams proved last year - there was too great a degree of predicability with Michigan's O - DR right, DR left, DR up the middle. Hoke's approach is different - and, the variety of looks will (or may) create a challenge for ND. The same is true for Michigan's D to recognize what ND will do, since I'm sure that BK introduced a LOT of new things to the O in the off season - and Rees / Crist have had a LOT more time in the system to learn, apply, and adapt.

There is one major key to this game (again, IMO) - and, this stems from Greg Mattison - Michigan's DC - that key is - how well can Michigan disguise the blitz - or how well / quickly will Rees be able to recognize what he sees and adjust to it. If there is one thing that Mattison brought with him from the NFL is was how to disguise a blitz. If Michigan's D can do it well - it can make the game VERY interesting.

Here's a question for those who have followed ND football for a while - what did you guys think of Mattison? He was at ND for a while - with Davie and Willingham. Did you think he was "ok", "good", or "not so good".

 

[IrishLax]

Mattison was very average, got demoted (I think) during his time at ND. But certainly not bad and a HUGE upgrade over your last coordinator.

I have no idea what to expect Saturday. I could honestly see anything from ND 45 Michigan 10 to Michigan 35 ND 17...

 

[ulukinatme]

Rambler, Thanks for the compliment. I think one of the nice things about sites like this is a chance to discuss - really discuss issues / items that are relevant and could make a difference.

I would expect every ND fan to want (or hope) for a win; as I would expect the same of Michigan fans - like myself.

Your view of the ND D being on their heels is key. DR is special, but - as several teams proved last year - there was too great a degree of predicability with Michigan's O - DR right, DR left, DR up the middle. Hoke's approach is different - and, the variety of looks will (or may) create a challenge for ND. The same is true for Michigan's D to recognize what ND will do, since I'm sure that BK introduced a LOT of new things to the O in the off season - and Rees / Crist have had a LOT more time in the system to learn, apply, and adapt.

There is one major key to this game (again, IMO) - and, this stems from Greg Mattison - Michigan's DC - that key is - how well can Michigan disguise the blitz - or how well / quickly will Rees be able to recognize what he sees and adjust to it. If there is one thing that Mattison brought with him from the NFL is was how to disguise a blitz. If Michigan's D can do it well - it can make the game VERY interesting.

Here's a question for those who have followed ND football for a while - what did you guys think of Mattison? He was at ND for a while - with Davie and Willingham. Did you think he was "ok", "good", or "not so good".

I would say Mattison is one of the better Defensive minds out there. If you look at the teams he's coached on since leaving ND: Florida in '05-07, Baltimore Ravens from '08-'10, and now Michigan (I assume the defense will be improved this year), those teams all had good defense. Notre Dame had pretty good defense up through '02 as well (Willingham survived on good defense in '02), but maybe not so much in '03 and '04. The problems in '03 and '04 probably stemmed more from a lack of talent though and not coaching.

I think Hoke has the right approach. For one, in the Big 10 your QB can't survive on designed run plays and constantly having to fix broken plays by taking off. Your QB will be too dinged by midyear, and you're almost asking for problems. Plus, I don't think the Spread does too well in the Big 10 these days. Like many offenses, it's the flavor of the month really, and teams like Auburn have learned how to defend against it better. For the Big 10 you need a strong running game in those cold months and when the weather is bad, something that other conferences don't have to deal with as much. Hoke may or may not have the right people to achieve this yet, but they certainly had no problems scoring in his offense last week.

 

[HereComeTheIrish]

Rambler, Thanks for the compliment. I think one of the nice things about sites like this is a chance to discuss - really discuss issues / items that are relevant and could make a difference.

I would expect every ND fan to want (or hope) for a win; as I would expect the same of Michigan fans - like myself.

Your view of the ND D being on their heels is key. DR is special, but - as several teams proved last year - there was too great a degree of predicability with Michigan's O - DR right, DR left, DR up the middle. Hoke's approach is different - and, the variety of looks will (or may) create a challenge for ND. The same is true for Michigan's D to recognize what ND will do, since I'm sure that BK introduced a LOT of new things to the O in the off season - and Rees / Crist have had a LOT more time in the system to learn, apply, and adapt.

There is one major key to this game (again, IMO) - and, this stems from Greg Mattison - Michigan's DC - that key is - how well can Michigan disguise the blitz - or how well / quickly will Rees be able to recognize what he sees and adjust to it. If there is one thing that Mattison brought with him from the NFL is was how to disguise a blitz. If Michigan's D can do it well - it can make the game VERY interesting.

Here's a question for those who have followed ND football for a while - what did you guys think of Mattison? He was at ND for a while - with Davie and Willingham. Did you think he was "ok", "good", or "not so good".

I'm in the not so good crowd. We had some kids that overachieved, but on a whole, Mattison was a wash out. Might have been a case of follow the leader as neither Davie or ThY Golf Pro were really very good. You know what they say... Poo rolls downhill. You're only as good as your leader I guess.

 

[GO IRISH!!!]

Hey, where has ]V[GOBLUE been in all these discussions?

I like that guy's take. He is a fun poster and I haven't really seen him lately. Thought he would be a regular fixture this week.

 

[ToledoGoIrish]

See what they do the rest of the year before making the assumption they are good.

That works both ways, and you could take your own advice

just like when scUM would start 4-0 .............and finish 6-6

Same could be said for your boys. Except you guys are the ones with the high school Defense STILL, new DC or not. same players with the exception that you lost experienced sr's and have no impact freshman to fill an already bad secondary/Linebacking core.