Status Quo of National Recruiting

[Old Man Mike]

The following may or may not be interesting to persons only interested in Notre Dame recruiting, but I believe that it creates a little context. The information here was pretty accurate as of the end of last week. Notre Dame is in a cluster of schools with six verbal commitments [OSU; GA; OkSt; Ark; AzSt; PSU; and USC]. Generally speaking those are powerful programs and so that alone would say that Kelly's recruiting pace is going "OK". Last year we were at 9 verbals at this time, due to a surprising avalanche of April commitments [8].

The leaders this year at this time are a surprising Texas A&M [20], unsurprising Texas [16], and then the typical drop-off to Alabama [11], Florida, Michigan, & TCU [10---note Hoke's aggression], FSU, LSU, VT [9---note Beamer's new emphasis on pulling recruits away from U Virginia], Miami & Houston [8], and Texas Tech, Baylor, and Cincinnati [7]. Of the top 14 schools getting verbals early, 6 are in Texas; 3 more are in Florida. Only Cincinnati and Michigan could be called mid-west region. If one is going to effectively recruit two of the hot-beds, one must get in early.

Taking 51 of the top recruiting success schools from last year, there are about the same number of commits now as then [c.265]. The pace of new verballing goes way down during this period that we are in. Over the last two-&-a-half weeks there have been about 3 verbals per day, similarly to last year. If last year's pace holds true, it will drop to about two per day or less for the month of May --- so get your "patience" on.

The number of recent verbals is about the same on each side of the ball with slightly more offense committing. Of the 49 recent commits, 9 were d-linemen, including 3 nose tackles. Four QBs popped. There were also three tight ends, which was a bit faster pace than they had been. One can't make much out of any of that.

Several schools have had a significant slow-down in pace. Stanford is the most spectacular, going from 14 commits at this time last year down to two. Maryland has fallen off from 11 to three. Both cases may be due to coaching shifts. Some accelerations also may be significant. Beamer has gone from 2 to 9 this year as his staff focusses on winning the Virginia war; which they are doing, as UVA dropped from 8 to 2. Florida without Meyer seems pushing harder [4-->10] and Paterno seems to have come out of a coma [0-->6]. Miami is jumping a bit [2-->8]. More subtly, the coming of Dana Holgerson as the replacement for lame-duck coach Bill Stewart at WVU has roused recruiting a bit there [0-->4]. I have no idea what explains the mad upward swing of A&M [5-->20].

All this done for your amusement as you try to stay sane in this dead season. Cheers.

 

[rtrn2glory]

thanks for the research...now that i've read that i see how this has taken shape

verbals will most likely pick back up in mid june and july when kids go to camps and visit campus during their down time in high school football.

everything you typed makes sense, however, and to be honest i think i'd rather have few at this point if I were ND compared to last year when we seemed to have to bite and claw our way to keep the ones we had heading into the summer.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Thanks for putting this together, OMM. One thing I would be interested in seeing is whether there is any correlation between scholarships available and volume of early commits. Focusing only on Notre Dame, this 2012 class figures to be about 20% smaller than the 2011 class - I wonder if that could be a factor in why there are less commits on board now versus a year ago. The thinking would be that since you have less slots available, you are a bit more selective and careful about who you extend an offer to. Obviously, focusing only on Notre Dame isn't instructive, because there could be many other factors involved. Seeing how many scholarships A&M had open last year compared to this year would be interesting; seeing where USC was at this time last year would be interesting, as well. Maybe someone could take a look at that if they have a few minutes. If I get a chance today I will try to come up with something.

 

[rtrn2glory]

i'm not sure if there would be a correlation or not, but I would think that most schools are careful about who they extend offers to on a yearly basis. Regardless if you bring in 20 or 30 guys I would think they take a very similar approach to who they offer, but i can see where you're thinking comes into play for positions like QB where you only take 1 or 2 guys tops

 

[ACamp1900]

good stuff... One thing that may be helping A&M (other than just time and chance simple working for them) is the Texas meltdown last year... the Texas field is obviously loaded and these are of course teenagers, many of them fickle... last year A&M had a good year and Texas didn't... maybe it's giving A&M a little boost if not hurting UT as much just yet.

 

[Ironman8]

Nice article on ND recruiting under Kelly, going against our status quo:

Irish Recruiting Looking Like Old
May 12th, 2011 . by adamn

There was a time when Notre Dame recruited, and got, almost any stud they wanted.

That’s what happens when you become THE national program of college football, with pipelines from coast to coast, and get fed the best athletes from all of the premier Catholic high schools.

Ara hardly even left campus. Recruits fell over their own feet running to knock on his door. Sure, schools like Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and USC made their own footprints in the college football landscape, with their own great players, but not like Notre Dame did. For the most part, the Irish got first dibs.

Then the pendulum swung, and the balance of college football shifted to the South. Miami and Florida State owned the 80’s and 90’s. A few old school powers had their moments, though. Oklahoma battled Miami for team of the 80’s, and Nebraska controlled four years in the mid-90’s, and Notre Dame had a fabulous stretch six-year stretch with Lou Holtz right before that. But, the game had changed. All you had to do was watch for five minutes, and you would learn about “southern speed”. Old Guard be damned.

The 21st century is where it really fell apart for Notre Dame, though. The critics said the power shift, along with the school’s own values would keep them from the elite. Bob Davie blamed academics as well, and quit fighting for the best players. Ty blamed…well Ty blamed his short game on the golf course, and didn’t even try to recruit. At this point, you couldn’t find a high school “top 100″ player that would even consider Notre Dame. I believed the critics whole-heartedly.

When things were the bleakest, Charlie Weis came in, worked his butt off, and proved Notre Dame could still get elite offensive players. And, recruiting gurus were ranking Irish classes in the “top 10″ again. However, those rankings turned out to be a farce, because in reality, Charlie couldn’t make enough headway. He turned quarterbacks into stars, but couldn’t develop the trenches, or recruit the type of defensive skill that schools in the SEC had in abundance. Buh-bye, Charlie. The critics, while not completely right, were still winning the argument. I believed them half-heartedly.

Then, Brian Kelly. His first full recruiting class was considered “top 10″, and for the first time since Lou, he brought in elite trench players and defenders. You already know the names, and the rest of college football will find out about Aaron Lynch and co. very soon. Kelly is showing that he doesn’t want to be a one-year wonder either, he is charging hard after this year’s best players as well.

Kelly and Notre Dame are all over the best in the class of 2012. Offers to 68 of the “top 100“, 21 out of the “top 25″, and 8 of the “top 10″. Kelly is putting out more offers than any Irish coach I can remember. For the first time, an ND coach isn’t recruiting with entitlement, Kelly is still recruiting like he’s at Cincinnati. He knows that Notre Dame doesn’t sell itself anymore (players can be a star anywhere these days), so his staff is identifying who they like, and fighting tooth, nail, and if need be, brass knuckle (Weis, for all he did well, didn’t fight for guys if their interest started to wane) to get these guys (ask the Georgia Tech coaches, or JoePa).

Best of all, this courtship isn’t one-sided. I read on another site of those 68 “top 100 “offers, 43 players are realistically “in play” (some don’t have any interest, despite the offer). ND has a real shot at guys like WR Dorial Green-Beckham (a high school Randy Moss), Gunner Keil (best quarterback), stud DT Tommy Schutt, and they already have two of the top CB’s (Darby and Shepard). The critics may finally be proven wrong. I want to believe that.

It will never be the old days at Notre Dame again (just too many options for kids, and it is harder than ever to recruit nationally), but for the first time since Lou, it wouldn’t be a complete surprise to see ND corral the very best high schoolers in the nation.

At least that’s how I’ll see it until Kelly has an “off” recruiting year. Or maybe until the stud players start to make more cuts this year.

southbendblarney.com » Blog Archive » Irish Recruiting Looking Like Old

 

[Old Man Mike]

Nice article. Informative and optimistic.

 

[Irish2015]

content aside that was very well written.

 

[rtrn2glory]

everybody seems to be very optimistic about what coach kelly and his staff are doing in regards to recruiting. Early season success and a win under the lights against USC will only help the cause.

 

[IrishLax]

Step 2: win 10 games.

 

[keogh]

I think kids are excited about playing for Brian Kelly. There is a new energy now. In many ways Brian Kelly reminds me of Ara, though college football in general is much different from what it was in the mid 1960s and early 1970s; for one thing, today's game is much faster, and speed fits Brian Kelly just as power and execution fit Ara. What the two have in common is attitude, a certain stoicism mixed with control and determination.

 

[jmurphy75]

I don't know if we will see ND return to that of old, but be re-invented based on it's own core of values and traditions with Brian Kelly & Co. beliefs and energy. Everything must evolve with the times or it gets passed up, and I'm glad the evolution is here and Kelly is teaching the kids about ND's past....I've always believed that you can't fully go forward unless you know where you've been and respect and appreciate the people that built the program you are a part of.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

What was Notre Dame like before it was invented?

I mean you had Rockne from 18-31, and then you became an absolute bitch after the war, but ND's most productive football years were probably from '64-'80 and '86-'96.

During the Holtz era there was plenty of competition for tallent . . .

 

[Couv Domer]

Nice work OMM. I noticed recently on the ESPN recruiting website, that at least half of Texas's recruits have been selected to play in the Under Armour or Army all-american games next year. Perhaps that doesn't mean much, but they have a very impressive early haul.

 

[Couv Domer]

Great article IM8. I think the content is very accurate.
I'd be interested in knowing how many of the elite recruits simply don't have the academics to be seriously considered by Notre Dame.

Does anyone out there know if Notre Dame impliments the NCAA approved "sliding grade scale" system which allows "less than scholarly" student athletes admission below the school's normal admin requirements?

I've never followed ND's recruiting as closely as I have this year, but on the surface it appears to me that the coaches are being tenacious in their effort to bring the best possible talent to ND.

 

[IrishLax]

Thought this thread could use a bump. We're now up 10 recruits which means we're about halfway done with this class (give or take). Of our 10 recruits, 9 aren't specialists. 8 out of these 9 are rated at a 4* level by at least one service. The one who isn't (CJ Prosise) plays for a very small private school in middle-of-nowhere Virginia. Recruits from VA (especially skill position players), as Virginia Tech has consistently demonstrated over the past decade, tend to be extremely underrated/under-exposed on the national level and has offers from a lot of big time schools.

Oh, and we also added an OT in Jordan Prestwood that was ranked in the top 10 by 3 out of 4 recruiting services last year. If we can keep up the momentum, this could be a very special class, possibly even top 5. The only thing that may hold us back is our number of available offers. I'm excited. Discuss.

 

[Ironman8]

We are going to be very picky from now on. Most likely no QB or TE in this class, and maybe no true NG. Would love to stress RB, DE / OLB, and get on those elite OT. I feel like we are in good shape with WR and secondary recruiting right now. We get off to a strong start and look out. Patience till then is required now.

 

[Buster Bluth]

I don't think it will have the size to be a top five class, but the average star rating of the recruits should be outstanding in it's own right.

Tee Shepard - * * * * *
Ronald Darby - * * * * *
Taylor Decker - * * * *
Nick Baratti - * * * *
Deontay Greenberry - * * * *
David Perkins - * * * *
C.J. Prosise - * * *
Mark Harrell - * * *
Justin Ferguson - * * *
Scot Daly - n/a

By that count, and not including Daly for obvious reasons, the average star rating is a 3.89

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Of Prosise, Harrell, and Ferguson, I'd bet at least becomes a low 4-star by NSD.

 

[IrishLax]

Of Prosise, Harrell, and Ferguson, I'd bet at least becomes a low 4-star by NSD.

Harrel and Ferguson are already on the ESPNU 150 WL and considered 4* level players by that service. I think Prosise has the least chance to receive bumps because he isn't likely to gets lots of exposure at camps or all-star games.

 

[Ironman8]

Of Prosise, Harrell, and Ferguson, I'd bet at least becomes a low 4-star by NSD.

I think both Harrell and Ferguson should move up, Harrell especially.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I think both Harrell and Ferguson should move up, Harrell especially.

I agree, but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll happen. Hopefully they all have strong senior seasons.

Do any of those 3 participate in 7-on-7 tournaments? Maybe they get invited to a regional all-star game?

 

[Buster Bluth]

I think Ferguson will get his fourth star, but I don't see it happening for Harrell or Prosise. Harrell to me just seems like too much of a project to warrant a fourth star, in my opinion. I think his upside is great though.

 

[NDPhilly]

I think Ferguson will get his fourth star, but I don't see it happening for Harrell or Prosise. Harrell to me just seems like too much of a project to warrant a fourth star, in my opinion. I think his upside is great though.

Prestwood was (and still is) a project and he was ranked in the top 10 of most services.

 

[NYIrish14]

I definitely think that Ferguson is a 4 star player. Hes been invited to the marines all american bowl (even though Lemming invited him, he still deserves to go) and he has offers from bama,fsu, florida and miami. Ive heard and read in different places that ferguson is a difference maker. Hes physical for a reciever and when I watch his film he looks like he plays faster than his 4.5 forty would indicate.

 

[RyCo1983]

I see Tee and Nitro going up to 5 stars.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I'd agree that Ferguson is the most likely to earn a 4th star, playing in Florida and likely participating in some regional/ 7-on-7 games to garner more attention.

For Harrell and Prosise, unless they start to impress at the position they're projected to play at the next level, I don't see much opportunity for them to move up.

 

[IrishLax]

I'd agree that Ferguson is the most likely to earn a 4th star, playing in Florida and likely participating in some regional/ 7-on-7 games to garner more attention.

For Harrell and Prosise, unless they start to impress at the position they're projected to play at the next level, I don't see much opportunity for them to move up.

Yeah, Prosise really has no chance with the level of competition he plays. And now that he is committed to ND, I really doubt he does a bunch of camping/7on7. Harrell will likely get a 4th star. He is already a 4* guy on ESPN.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Prosise really has no chance with the level of competition he plays. And now that he is committed to ND, I really doubt he does a bunch of camping/7on7. Harrell will likely get a 4th star. He is already a 4* guy on ESPN.

Great news (I didn't know that).

ESPN ratings generally carry the most water, no?

 

[IrishLax]

Great news (I didn't know that).

ESPN ratings generally carry the most water, no?

Yeah, for the most part, they have been the most accurate service recently. Rivals is a very close second, and you could also make a valid argument that they're #1. 247 is too new to judge and Scout is largely considered the least accurate.