'11 FL DE Anthony Rabasa (Signed Notre Dame LOI)

[CanadianIrish]

Some of the ratings nonsense that occurs is that these guys don't know how to assess the player who is playing a spot in high school that he is not going to play in college. This is happening all the time with players who are DEs in high school but project at OLBs in college.

The ratings services particularly are boggled by guys going into 3-4 defenses. They seem generally not to have a clue. For US to get a better clue, we probably need to ignore the services on our OLB recruits [and linebackers in general] and see how much our coaching staff wanted them. That will give us a better feeling for whether Kelly and Diaco see them as "5-stars" in a 3-4.

[P.S. I see the same thing on all but the very top "Athletes", and on the guys who are HS RBs but are headed to positions like Spread offense Slot. Our systems are still too novel for these raters to get a grip on them].

This is true to an extent, but lets not get carried away with this idea. Sometimes they think a four star is a three star, or a five star is a four star, but they very very rarely think a five star is a three star. A great deal of evaluation is about athleticism, and they can judge that.

It just seems to me that for every 5 star recruit we get we say "this is awesome, he's the next _______, big recruits are a huge deal", but for every three star recruit we say "rankings don't matter". From the way this board behaves every single recruit is a future heisman winner.

 

[Mavericknyc1980]

Miami was ALL OVER Rabasa when Golden took over. I have to defend my man IM3 here. There is a premium story coming on ISD that talks about how Rabasa had to have his high school coach call Miami and tell them to back off with the calls and visits because he was solid ND. He and Chickillo were their top targets right off the bat.

Other notes: Elston and Diaco visited him this morning and just chatted, mostly about signing day plans and his new all-star game invite. He will be play OLB in the USA vs the World game.

Man I have a lot of respect for Anthony to never waver from ND.

 

[Irish Man3]

Miami was ALL OVER Rabasa when Golden took over. I have to defend my man IM3 here. There is a premium story coming on ISD that talks about how Rabasa had to have his high school coach call Miami and tell them to back off with the calls and visits because he was solid ND. He and Chickillo were their top targets right off the bat.

Other notes: Elston and Diaco visited him this morning and just chatted, mostly about signing day plans and his new all-star game invite. He will be play OLB in the USA vs the World game.

Rabasa was one of the recruits along with Stephon Tuitt, that I was most concerned about. He was a HEAVY Miami lean when his recruitment started. Since his visit and his commitment to ND, he was been rock solid. Miami hounded this kid and he never waivered. This is a Miami kid that never let the home town crowd get into his head. Kid seems to be one of the more intelligent and under rated prospects in this class. I think he's a stud and I look forward to watching him for the next 4-5 years.

Another note about his in home with the coaching staff, they have not talked to him about playing any other position other than OLB. I know some speculated on maybe shifting him to MLB or DE, but as of now the staff seems to be dead set on Rabasa at OLB.

An Ishaq Williams, Prince Shembo, and Anthony Rabasa rotation should be fun to watch. Not only is BK adding elite talent, they are also adding quality depth this team hasn't seen in years on the defensive side of the football.

 

[JDAtlanta]

This is true to an extent, but lets not get carried away with this idea. Sometimes they think a four star is a three star, or a five star is a four star, but they very very rarely think a five star is a three star. A great deal of evaluation is about athleticism, and they can judge that.

It just seems to me that for every 5 star recruit we get we say "this is awesome, he's the next _______, big recruits are a huge deal", but for every three star recruit we say "rankings don't matter". From the way this board behaves every single recruit is a future heisman winner.

I have come around on my view of the recruiting services rankings. I put more stock in the coaches evaluations and projections.
I think this class has a bunch of guys that are about the team, not "ME" guys. I like the way the coaches are developing the players. Longo is a huge asset. This off season is going to be a long one. I can't wait for next year.

 

[amgarvey]

This is true to an extent, but lets not get carried away with this idea. Sometimes they think a four star is a three star, or a five star is a four star, but they very very rarely think a five star is a three star. A great deal of evaluation is about athleticism, and they can judge that.

It just seems to me that for every 5 star recruit we get we say "this is awesome, he's the next _______, big recruits are a huge deal", but for every three star recruit we say "rankings don't matter". From the way this board behaves every single recruit is a future heisman winner.

The Inexact Science | TheRinger.com

Not really. Check out this link for a look at the top prospects in this years draft and their star ratings coming out of high school. Sure, a lot of them are 5*, but there are plenty of 3*s and even a few 2*s.

 

[CanadianIrish]

The Inexact Science | TheRinger.com

Not really. Check out this link for a look at the top prospects in this years draft and their star ratings coming out of high school. Sure, a lot of them are 5*, but there are plenty of 3*s and even a few 2*s.

I've seen this argument before, and it's so shockingly wrong that I can't even understand how anyone can repeat it.

There are roughly 25 5*s every year, a couple hundred 4*s, and thousands upon thousands of 3*s and 2*s. As a percentage, the recruiting service are rarely wrong about the rankings. You can point to six 2*s out of the roughly 2,000 from that year. As a percentage, that's pretty impressive, they were wrong well under 1% of the time. With the 5*s, they got roughly 20 out of 25 correct, which is 80%.

So less than one in one hundred of these low level recruits will be a top flight NFL prospect, whereas something in the range of 80% of 5* prospects will be.

Every once in a while a good coach will find a diamond in the rough, but it's not going to be a common thing, and we need to stop pretending that it will be.

 

[IrishLax]

I've seen this argument before, and it's so shockingly wrong that I can't even understand how anyone can repeat it.

There are roughly 25 5*s every year, a couple hundred 4*s, and thousands upon thousands of 3*s and 2*s. As a percentage, the recruiting service are rarely wrong about the rankings. You can point to six 2*s out of the roughly 2,000 from that year. As a percentage, that's pretty impressive, they were wrong well under 1% of the time. With the 5*s, they got roughly 20 out of 25 correct, which is 80%.

So less than one in one hundred of these low level recruits will be a top flight NFL prospect, whereas something in the range of 80% of 5* prospects will be.

Every once in a while a good coach will find a diamond in the rough, but it's not going to be a common thing, and we need to stop pretending that it will be.

No offense dude... but you're way off here. Not on your numbers, which are accurate, but on your approach to the whole thing. Here is why:

1. Brian Kelly has a history of taking 2* and 3* guys and turning them into very good players. Maybe not NFL studs, but his return rate on 2*s and 3*s is MUCH higher than the average. Why? Because he recruits for his systems and is a great talent evaluator.

2. NFL draft pick != college production. It's a simple undeniable fact, and star ratings are given projecting towards COLLEGE. So it is totally reasonable to believe a guy might be a great fit for our team or scheme and an effective college player even if he won't end up drafted. The majority of 2 year starters aren't drafted... that doesn't mean they weren't productive.

Anyways, it's totally reasonable for people on the board to say "ooo 5* at a position of need... this guy is gonna be awesome!!" and also say "3* with good measureables who fits a mold... awesome" or "3* being evaluated for a position he won't play for us... stars are irrelevant."

 

[amgarvey]

I've seen this argument before, and it's so shockingly wrong that I can't even understand how anyone can repeat it.

There are roughly 25 5*s every year, a couple hundred 4*s, and thousands upon thousands of 3*s and 2*s. As a percentage, the recruiting service are rarely wrong about the rankings. You can point to six 2*s out of the roughly 2,000 from that year. As a percentage, that's pretty impressive, they were wrong well under 1% of the time. With the 5*s, they got roughly 20 out of 25 correct, which is 80%.

So less than one in one hundred of these low level recruits will be a top flight NFL prospect, whereas something in the range of 80% of 5* prospects will be.

Every once in a while a good coach will find a diamond in the rough, but it's not going to be a common thing, and we need to stop pretending that it will be.

I apologize for offending your delicate sensibilities (though it was worth it to read your laughable reaction), but when 40% of potential first round players ( saying nothing of the remaining rounds) are 2 or 3 stars I'd say with good coaching you have a very good shot at getting a standout player from a 3 star recruit. Also, given A) its common knowledge that there are many more 3 stars than 5 stars and B) the article linked refers to this fact, you little statistical breakdown was anything but insightful.

 

[CanadianIrish]

I apologize for offending your delicate sensibilities (though it was worth it to read your laughable reaction), but when 40% of potential first round players ( saying nothing of the remaining rounds) are 2 or 3 stars I'd say with good coaching you have a very good shot at getting a standout player from a 3 star recruit. Also, given A) its common knowledge that there are many more 3 stars than 5 stars and B) the article linked refers to this fact, you little statistical breakdown was anything but insightful.

Way to walk back from your original comment, well done. I post saying we think we have a great recruit no matter what the star rating, you post a list of NFL prospects star ratings (implying 3*s can be huge recruits) and then later walk back that comment and suggest you knew all along five stars are more likely to succeed. Now you say good coaching can get standouts from 3*s. From that the only logical assumption is that 95% of coaches do not meet your "good coaching" threshold, because 95% of 3*s are not standouts.

As for IrishLAX's points, those are actually valid. That having been said, there was a great story (possibly apocryphal) about Lou coming in thinking he could just develop talent and win with coaching, then running into some team with huge recruits and telling his staff "we need to get players like that". Kelly did great at GVSU and Cinci with 2 and 3*s, but when his boys played Florida they got humiliated (granted he wasn't coaching them, but it was his scheme and his coaching til that point).

With respect to players fitting into a scheme, that's probably true, but people aren't saying things along the line of "he's going to be a great safety for the cover 2" or he's a great space eater for the 3-4, they're constantly talking about how "our" kids are underrated and we've got a star in the making. Cam McDaniel is the most underrated player in America don't you know?

I have no doubt that we can get great production out of some lower star kids (especially on our OL, because our unique blocking doesn't require the massive bodies that get high recruiting rankings, but rather mobility). That having been said, these people aren't going to be our stars, they're going to be cogs in the machine.

Who is the star of our defense? T'eo.
Who is the star of our offense? Floyd (and Rudy before he was injured, and Clausen before he left).

What do all of those players have in common? They were all consensus five star recruits.

The future stars of this team are the Ishaqs, Tuitts, Lynchs, and Koyacks. The others have a role to play, but it's extremely unlikely that they will be a focal point of the team. We'd do well to remember that when we post about 17 year old kids and start talking about how much they will contribute to the team.

 

[tommyIRISH23]

It's all relative. If you have a 3* QB that plays behind seasoned, and well coached Oline's with a 4* reciever, and a 4* RB...ofcourse he will look, and play better because of the talent around him.

the 3*'s on bama will get noticed, and benefit from the play of the 5*'s around them on the field.

I've maintained that you need 2 elite players, 5/6 good players, and 3/4 solid players to have a 4/5* defense or offense. It's about balance, and having a difference maker a strategic place that will strengthen the team around them with their abilities.

 

[SoJerseyIrish]

I don't care what they do after college, I want to win a NC at ND.......

 

[ThePiombino]

I've maintained that you need 2 elite players, 5/6 good players, and 3/4 solid players to have a 4/5* defense or offense. It's about balance, and having a difference maker a strategic place that will strengthen the team around them with their abilities.

If this is true then we have a problem, arguably more on offense than defense. MF is our only established stud and unless Theo or Cierre step it up this year, we're in trouble. Losing Kyle certainly doesn't help and the only person I see being a possible stud at QB THIS YEAR is Crist and who knows where he'll be coming off the latest injury. Golson will be awesome in this offense...a year or two from now. Rees is a great backup...period. Hendrix is a bit of a wild card, but to be honest, even if he does see the field this year, he probably wouldn't be able to hit his stride his first year on the field. I'm just a little concerned about the offense this year. I think we have a lot of talent that will come to fruition in the next year or two, just not so sure about THIS YEAR.

I don't care what they do after college, I want to win a NC at ND.......

This!

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Great conversation, however, I can't help feeling we're walking the long way around the tree – I’m not sure everybody is arguing the pros and cons of the same point

What is your point? How good is a player going to become in college based upon high school scouting services? How great is he going to become at the position he needs to play for his college program to become successful? Or how great of an NFL prospect is he going to become?

If you look at past indicators, (best indicator of future performance) Brian Kelly has more than his share of underdeveloped high school prospects that he fits in to his program in just the right way, then these "over-performers” (based on their high school ratings) develop within their program to become strong NFL prospects. Kelly, Longo, and Diaco have worked with more that their share of the “6%.”

When watching his film, the thing I like best about Anthony Rasaba is his ability to get pressure on, his high motor, his ability to stay in good position and his real long nasty streak!

 

[amgarvey]

Way to walk back from your original comment, well done. I post saying we think we have a great recruit no matter what the star rating, you post a list of NFL prospects star ratings (implying 3*s can be huge recruits) and then later walk back that comment and suggest you knew all along five stars are more likely to succeed. Now you say good coaching can get standouts from 3*s. From that the only logical assumption is that 95% of coaches do not meet your "good coaching" threshold, because 95% of 3*s are not standouts.

As for IrishLAX's points, those are actually valid. That having been said, there was a great story (possibly apocryphal) about Lou coming in thinking he could just develop talent and win with coaching, then running into some team with huge recruits and telling his staff "we need to get players like that". Kelly did great at GVSU and Cinci with 2 and 3*s, but when his boys played Florida they got humiliated (granted he wasn't coaching them, but it was his scheme and his coaching til that point).

With respect to players fitting into a scheme, that's probably true, but people aren't saying things along the line of "he's going to be a great safety for the cover 2" or he's a great space eater for the 3-4, they're constantly talking about how "our" kids are underrated and we've got a star in the making. Cam McDaniel is the most underrated player in America don't you know?

I have no doubt that we can get great production out of some lower star kids (especially on our OL, because our unique blocking doesn't require the massive bodies that get high recruiting rankings, but rather mobility). That having been said, these people aren't going to be our stars, they're going to be cogs in the machine.

Who is the star of our defense? T'eo.
Who is the star of our offense? Floyd (and Rudy before he was injured, and Clausen before he left).

What do all of those players have in common? They were all consensus five star recruits.

The future stars of this team are the Ishaqs, Tuitts, Lynchs, and Koyacks. The others have a role to play, but it's extremely unlikely that they will be a focal point of the team. We'd do well to remember that when we post about 17 year old kids and start talking about how much they will contribute to the team.

Well I certainly won't be able to match volume with volume. I would simply like to clarify a few points. In no way was my original post supposed to indicate that a three star and a five star are just as likely to be standout (NFL Caliber) players. I was simply countering your assertion (or what I interpreted your assertion to be) that finding a player that dramatically outperformed their star rating was akin to encountering a unicorn. If you are inclined to interpret this as "backing off" fee free.

 

[RyCo1983]

Maybe you guys should take the argument to PM or another thread and keep a little more on topic.

Bogtrotter...I totally agree with you on Rabasa...the high motor, mean streak, pressure. Diaco will find a place for him. He'll be a solid supporting cast member for the Three Amigos...

 

[rtrn2glory]

This is the type of guy coach Kelly was talking about going into somebody's backyard and stealing him and we all know that is not easy to do in Florida, let alone Miami. Gotta give the staff credit for recruiting guys like this from start to finish even though they've been committed for months.

Agreed, talent wise he's the type you can get on campus and figure out what to do with him later. IMO, though, I think Anthony is going to have to have a great fall camp to make it on the field this fall. Be interesting to see his measurables when he reports in August.

 

[CanadianIrish]

Well I certainly won't be able to match volume with volume. I would simply like to clarify a few points. In no way was my original post supposed to indicate that a three star and a five star are just as likely to be standout (NFL Caliber) players. I was simply countering your assertion (or what I interpreted your assertion to be) that finding a player that dramatically outperformed their star rating was akin to encountering a unicorn. If you are inclined to interpret this as "backing off" fee free.

While I'm not going to talk about unicorns, finding a player who outperforms their star rating dramatically is very rare. People always point to the few star 3*s and 2*s standouts we see and use them as "proof" that it happens. That's no different than saying it's freezing in Toronto right now therefore global warming cannot possibly be real. What's relevant is the big picture, and it tells us that it's a tiny tiny percentage of 3* and 2* players that become standouts.

So might one of our three stars every couple of years become a standout? Sure. Might Kelly be able to raise the chance 3*s become standouts? Sure, maybe he can even double it, but that might take it to a 10% chance. These kind of recruits will ultimately be cogs in the machine, and that is what we should expect. Anything else and we are just setting ourselves up for disappointment.

I'm I glad Rabasa is coming? Definitely, I think he's a great character kid who has done wonders for keeping this class together. Do I think he's ever going to start at ND? Highly unlikely, unless he red-shirts and starts as a fifth year.

 

[RyCo1983]

While I'm not going to talk about unicorns, finding a player who outperforms their star rating dramatically is very rare. People always point to the few star 3*s and 2*s standouts we see and use them as "proof" that it happens. That's no different than saying it's freezing in Toronto right now therefore global warming cannot possibly be real. What's relevant is the big picture, and it tells us that it's a tiny tiny percentage of 3* and 2* players that become standouts.

So might one of our three stars every couple of years become a standout? Sure. Might Kelly be able to raise the chance 3*s become standouts? Sure, maybe he can even double it, but that might take it to a 10% chance. These kind of recruits will ultimately be cogs in the machine, and that is what we should expect. Anything else and we are just setting ourselves up for disappointment.

I'm I glad Rabasa is coming? Definitely, I think he's a great character kid who has done wonders for keeping this class together. Do I think he's ever going to start at ND? Highly unlikely, unless he red-shirts and starts as a fifth year.

Starting and being on the 2 deep aren't too far removed from one another...He'll definitely see alot of playing time throughout his career.

He gives us quality depth at an important position in the 3-4

 

[CanadianIrish]

Starting and being on the 2 deep aren't too far removed from one another...He'll definitely see alot of playing time throughout his career.

He gives us quality depth at an important position in the 3-4

Absolutely, but that's not the way a lot of posters talk about our 3* recruits.

 

[RyCo1983]

Yeah...I've noticed.
That's every team's recruiting threads honestly
Rabasa may become a star...offenses will probably be trying like hell to avoid the other studs and will funnel plays to him.

 

[Big23Head]

I think Rabasa will start in time and will surprise you. Kid can play, bottom line.

 

[rtrn2glory]

aj hawk 3 stars (2002)
dane sanzenbacher 3 stars (2007)
Anthony spencer (Purdue) 3 stars (2002)
Ryan Kalil (usc) 3 stars- 2003
John Carlson 3 stars-2003

A few notable 3 stars, who's saying Anthony can't join this group??? Very possible

 

[amgarvey]

While I'm not going to talk about unicorns, finding a player who outperforms their star rating dramatically is very rare. People always point to the few star 3*s and 2*s standouts we see and use them as "proof" that it happens. That's no different than saying it's freezing in Toronto right now therefore global warming cannot possibly be real. What's relevant is the big picture, and it tells us that it's a tiny tiny percentage of 3* and 2* players that become standouts.

So might one of our three stars every couple of years become a standout? Sure. Might Kelly be able to raise the chance 3*s become standouts? Sure, maybe he can even double it, but that might take it to a 10% chance. These kind of recruits will ultimately be cogs in the machine, and that is what we should expect. Anything else and we are just setting ourselves up for disappointment.

I'm I glad Rabasa is coming? Definitely, I think he's a great character kid who has done wonders for keeping this class together. Do I think he's ever going to start at ND? Highly unlikely, unless he red-shirts and starts as a fifth year.

After a somewhat unpleasant discussion it appears that we aren't all that far off in our belief. I suppose that is the nature of internet message boards, turning small rifts into giant chasms. I am not one of these, 'damn the star ratings just get me an RKG" types, so perhaps I overstated my point.

Moving on, I think an interesting question and one that does pertain to Rabasa, though ESPN does have him as a 4 star, is what types of players tend to be overlook/undervalued. From anecdotal evidence I would say Rabasa falls into a subgroup that has a relatively high probability of being overlooked- white tweeners. Although I think with his offer list it is debatable that he himself has been overlooked.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Most of the time recruiting services are accurate. Sometimes they miss. I don't think you can bank on a player being a stud because they were a 5* or write a player off as a star because they were "only" a 3*. Broadly, recruiting ratings and rankings may be pretty accurate, but on a player-by-player basis there are enough misses that we should probably hold off on drawing conclusions until we see these guys on the field. A lot that goes into the eventual success of these players hasn't happened yet and is very difficult to project - injuries, system fit, physical and mental development, etc. One of my favorite anecdotes about recruiting is that Jerry Hughes was a 2* RB by Scout coming out of HS. He ended up being a first-round pick by the Colts as a DE (maybe Indy should try moving him back to RB...he hasn't done much as a pro). The point is that we can have educated guesses at this point, but that is all we have. Nobody knows exactly what kind players these guys will be, or even what position they will end up playing.

 

[amgarvey]

As a corollary, it is important to note that there are different types of 3*s. There are the high risk/reward types. These are the guys with lots of "tools", to borrow a baseball term, who just haven't put much together yet. Then there are they guys who have done a great job maximizing their ability through hard work and solid fundamentals. The state of your program dictates which pool you will be primarily drawing from. IMO if your program is strong enough you can increase your potential of hitting a home fun because you are free to bring in more of the high upside guys who might not pan out.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Maybe you guys should take the argument to PM or another thread and keep a little more on topic.

Bogtrotter...I totally agree with you on Rabasa...the high motor, mean streak, pressure. Diaco will find a place for him. He'll be a solid supporting cast member for the Three Amigos...

Hey, you know, two guys of our obvious intellect could have some real fun. Will he be a supporting member, or will he be a star? I think the Florida schools were hiding hime in their corner of the world because they had a strong suspicion of the answer!

 

[Old Man Mike]

Everything I heard about Rabasa has been very good. If he DOESN'T play much for Notre Dame in his third/fourth year on the squad, it will only be because real superstars are hogging all the PT ahead of him, and not that he's someone a BUNCH of schools wouldn't kill for. Admittedly that COULD happen if Councell & Ishaq are as good as I think they are, and Rabasa can't translate to ILB and play beside Grace. There's some serious heat in this year's class.

 

[RyCo1983]

Hey, you know, two guys of our obvious intellect could have some real fun. Will he be a supporting member, or will he be a star? I think the Florida schools were hiding hime in their corner of the world because they had a strong suspicion of the answer!

I'm edging more towards strong supporting member myself, but the boy can play, that's for sure. He's just gonna be a small fish in a HUGE pond. If anyone can turn him into a star...its Longo and Diaco. To me they are all stars.

But I believe we're saying star as in huge stats, national recognition...in that case I tend to feel he'll be a strong supporting cast member. He's gonna make a bunch of tackles and he's gonna make alot of key plays...but he'll be a bit overlooked due to who he's playing beside.

It's a tall order for Anthony to become a star, but if he can come in and just dominate, and I mean dominate, with the level that the rest of the front 7 seems to be heading towards...then yeah he can become a star...a star among other stars...

But I don't think he'll burn the brightest, but hey, if he just keeps consistent, that's all I could want.

I want to look at the D as one single unit...that's what I do...they're gonna be stars
I know that.
He's part of one special class.

 

[WhoDeyIrish]

I think competition breeds greatness. So having an overload of great OLB/DE prospects should be nice. Competition with in should help build this team.

This is kind of how I feel about the QB position. I don't believe Kelly plays favorites so I think who ever emerges as the starting QB next season will really take off and dominate next season.

 

[irishfan305]

Fact:Golden only called Rabasa once,Anthony told him,Coach,thank you for calling me but i am 100% commited to ND and coach Kelly.He never told his head coach to call miami to tell them to stop calling.

Fact:Rabasa will see plenty of action as a freshman,Kelly told him he will be used like Jason Taylor,he is gonna have him Blitzing from different places all the time.

Fact:Rivals told him he would have gotten his 4* rating if he wouldnt have missed the 3 games with a rib injury.

Even though he missed 3 games he still had more tackles and sacks than he did in his Junior year. Ended up with 85 tackles and 12 sacks against the best competition in dade county.

P.S. do yourself a favor and watch this kid in the all-star game if you havent seen him yet,he fun to watch,every coach that has seen him play has said the same thing,you have the technique of a jr.-sr. in college. Also,he may not be the tallest and strongest,but watch how he just toys with the o-line.