2025 College Football Playoffs

[BleedBlueGold]

He acknowledged he was dead wrong last night on his projections, though.

That's a huge red flag for me because prior to the first rankings, Brice sat down with the committee to do an in depth piece on their criteria and their formula. His projections should've been pretty close and the fact that they weren't, goes to show us all that someone within the committee put thumbs on the scale to the benefit of some and the detriment to others.

 

[NotKoon]

I guess I'll join the insurance gambling party.

I just did a two team parlay:

BYU +410 and Miami to make the playoffs at +430 (since one can't happen without the other might as well combine them) for a combined odds of +2600.

So my $250.00 wager will payout $6,757.50

Do these numbers in black and white help anyone else realize how much of a long shot this is?????????????????

That’s incorrect, they actually cannot make the playoffs together. There’s the obvious scenario of BYU wins and they are in. The flip scenario is Bama wins, BYU loses, BYU drops below Miami, now that Miami and ND are right next to each other Miami gets the nod. The parlay should be Bama in, Miami in, ND and BYU out

 

[Crazy Balki]

The committee has stated they won't punish teams for playing in CCGs. Even if BYU loses, they'd still have a better record than Miami, and frankly, a better resume. 2 top 20 wins v. 1, and their 2 losses to a top 5 team v. 2 losses to unranked teams.

I don't see them dropping BYU even with a loss, considering what they've done about conference championship losers. The committee seems to want Alabama and ND in, but primarily Alabama, which is why they jumped ND, so that they have them in, just in case BYU wins, but kept BYU ahead of Miami so that if BYU loses, the buffer remains and ND is in.

 

[Dale]

The committee has stated they won't punish teams for playing in CCGs. Even if BYU loses, they'd still have a better record than Miami, and frankly, a better resume. 2 top 20 wins v. 1, and their 2 losses to a top 5 team v. 2 losses to unranked teams.

I don't see them dropping BYU even with a loss, considering what they've done about conference championship losers. The committee seems to want Alabama and ND in, but primarily Alabama, which is why they jumped ND, so that they have them in, just in case BYU wins, but kept BYU ahead of Miami so that if BYU loses, the buffer remains and ND is in.

Every team dropped at least one spot last year after a conference championship game loss.

 

[ab2cmiller]

I thought someone posted a tweet that showed every P4 Conference Championship Game loser fell at least one spot last year.

That's why elevating Alabama above us this week seems as if Alabama is being protected. If they would've kept Bama at #10 and then chose not to drop them after a loss in the conference championship, the screams of inconsistency would've been heard.

Whoever loses the conference games will likely drop at least one spot.

 

[MPClinton22]

Every team dropped at least one spot last year after a conference championship game loss.

Did they drop them relative to idle teams, or did they drop because they were jumped by winning teams? I feel like UT and PSU both stayed above ND and were only jumped by UGA, who had won?

SMU was the outlier, but they dropped because they lost as the favorite to a much lower ranked Clemson team, and their resume was suspect to begin with.

 

[T-Boone]

If Bama gets through after a loss will they be the first 3 loss team into the play offs?

 

[slick7410]

If Bama gets through after a loss will they be the first 3 loss team into the play offs?

I believe Clemson had 3 last year. Definitely the 1st at-large though.

 

[Dale]

Did they drop them relative to idle teams, or did they drop because they were jumped by winning teams? I feel like UT and PSU both stayed above ND and were only jumped by UGA, who had won?

SMU was the outlier, but they dropped because they lost as the favorite to a much lower ranked Clemson team, and their resume was suspect to begin with.

Correct. Nobody dropped out of the field entirely with a loss, not even out of their “zone” of sorts, but everyone still dropped.

 

[bumpdaddy]

That's a huge red flag for me because prior to the first rankings, Brice sat down with the committee to do an in depth piece on their criteria and their formula. His projections should've been pretty close and the fact that they weren't, goes to show us all that someone within the committee put thumbs on the scale to the benefit of some and the detriment to others.

That's exactly right. The committee had been playing it fairly straight until last night, which gave Brice confidence that they would continue to play it straight when revealing this week's rankings. The committee had been properly using its own metrics and resume criteria to rank teams in prior weeks, but as soon as Yurachek said that the reason they moved Bama ahead of ND this week was because of Bama's narrow "gutsy" win against a bad Auburn team that doesn't have a coach, Brice (and the rest of us) knew they were no longer using their mostly objective criteria to justify their rankings. They were also using internal politics, and in this case, the politics outweighed their stated criteria.

Once that happened, Brice and the rest of us concluded that the committee can no longer be trusted to follow their own guidelines and previously stated logic to fairly rank teams if a fair ranking will put certain conference darlings at risk of missing the playoffs.

 

[Bane]

Yeah, Clemson had 3 losses but got the benefit of an autobid. Bama would be the first 3 loss at large bid.

 

[Kingbish01]

I believe Clemson had 3 last year. Definitely the 1st at-large though.

But didn't they win the ACC?

 

[T-Boone]

I think the CFP Comminissioner going on Golics show of all places and explaining how ND is better than Miami and BYU is a great sign.. I mean I personally would be freaking if he went on another show... like for a miami alum... and explained how the head to head is still up in the air or how close Miami and ND really are

I'd say that is A.I

 

[T-Boone]

If Bama goes down to Georgia by say 10 points and drops out they will carry on about it of course..."we will opt out of championship game in future". Is that really that big of a threat?
The SEC would then just go well the deal is we off the spot to the next team (maybe Vandy) and see if they want in with a chance to jump Bama that way.

 

[ab2cmiller]

I would love for teams to start opting out of Conference Championships. They were a complete money grab from the start.

 

[stlnd01]

Every team dropped at least one spot last year after a conference championship game loss.

And those games were all very close. If Bama loses to Georgia by like 14, I’m not sure the CCG precedent will protect them.

 

[CTIDANDREW]

Also for the non bettors out there that may not truly understand odds, I think it should be mentioned. My gambling group of buddies (fyi 2 have WSOP bracelets) look at odds like this:

Even money to +150 sweet spot
+300 and +750 "Long shots"
+750 to +1250 "donations"
+1250 and up "Lotto tickets"

I think the trepidation I personally have is this isn't a game where Vegas power rankings create a line, so betting odds have less meaning in my opinion.

I've heard plenty of smart Vegas people say Sportsbook hate putting up odds for NFL Draft picks for similar reason, because there is no exact science to it.
It is all just information trading at the end of the day.
Likely why we saw that crazy jump of Alabama to -3000 YES to make the playoffs before last nights rankings were publicly announced.

Vegas can use past committees to have an educated understanding for what this group of people will do, but there is no way to know for sure that this committee group will abide by what the past committees logic was for thier final rankings in years past.
I believe you could argue that already seems to be the case with how Yurachek answered the questions about re ranking all (25) teams on Sunday, even those who don't play at all.

Lastly, there has never been a circumstance where H2H may be the prevailing factor for the final at large spot in the (12) team format, or likely even the (4) team format.
It is fascinating to me personally how Vegas comes up with the lines for this market, and if Miami does get in over ND then there will be some uncomfortable conversations in Vegas sports betting boardrooms because they will have got it very wrong.

 

[ulukinatme]

A lot of people have mentioned precedent, but I'm not sure how much it really applies since we're only in Year 2 of the 12 team playoff and they've already changed the rules a bit since last year. That said, if BYU wins and/or Alabama wins I'm not sure how great I feel about our chances getting in.

 

[Sea Turtle]

I think the trepidation I personally have is this isn't a game where Vegas power rankings create a line, so betting odds have less meaning in my opinion.

I've heard plenty of smart Vegas people say Sportsbook hate putting up odds for NFL Draft picks for similar reason, because there is no exact science to it.
It is all just information trading at the end of the day.
Likely why we saw that crazy jump of Alabama to -3000 YES to make the playoffs before last nights rankings were publicly announced.

Vegas can use past committees to have an educated understanding for what this group of people will do, but there is no way to know for sure that this committee group will abide by what the past committees logic was for thier final rankings in years past.
I believe you could argue that already seems to be the case with how Yurachek answered the questions about re ranking all (25) teams on Sunday, even those who don't play at all.

Lastly, there has never been a circumstance where H2H may be the prevailing factor for the final at large spot in the (12) team format, or likely even the (4) team format.
It is fascinating to me personally how Vegas comes up with the lines for this market, and if Miami does get in over ND then there will be some uncomfortable conversations in Vegas sports betting boardrooms because they will have got it very wrong.

A difficult conversation like Joe Pesci and his brother had at the end of Casino?

 

[Dale]

A lot of people have mentioned precedent, but I'm not sure how much it really applies since we're only in Year 2 of the 12 team playoff and they've already changed the rules a bit since last year. That said, if BYU wins and/or Alabama wins I'm not sure how great I feel about our chances getting in.

I agree. I said yesterday anyone trying to apply logic and rules to this is just kidding themselves at this point. They’ll do whatever the fuck they want (to our benefit or not) and make up a justification later. They just proved that.

This “they have to” “they can’t” stuff is total BS.

 

[jprue24]

Also for the non bettors out there that may not truly understand odds, I think it should be mentioned. My gambling group of buddies (fyi 2 have WSOP bracelets) look at odds like this:

Even money to +150 sweet spot
+300 and +750 "Long shots"
+750 to +1250 "donations"
+1250 and up "Lotto tickets"

Which events?

 

[ab2cmiller]

I agree. I said yesterday anyone trying to apply logic and rules to this is just kidding themselves at this point. They’ll do whatever the fuck they want (to our benefit or not) and make up a justification later. They just proved that.

This “they have to” “they can’t” stuff is total BS.

They will do whatever they want. But I think it's obvious they are trying to shield themselves from controversy. They made up a nonsensical reason why Bama jumped ND. Why? Because the heat that they would get for jumping Bama over ND this past week would be nothing in comparison to keeping Bama at 10 this week and then refusing to drop them if they got beat by 14 points in the Conference Championship.

Bottom line is that they want Bama in the field, and they want to minimize all hell breaking loose.

 

[Dale]

Which may come down to which statement will they need to roll out

“Yes Miami won the head to head but that is just one factor and we felt like Notre Dame is the better team as whole through the season”

or

“We had Notre Dame above Miami in the previous rankings but as the season went along Miami improved and when we got to compare them side by side, Miami had to be the pick due to the head to head win”

Both as a bystander are full of shit to some degree

 

[ND88]

View attachment 3061449

Thank you for posting this. This is all that is needed for the argument. Bottomline. MIAMI LOST TO TWO SHIT TEAMS! How many of us have been screaming this from the rooftop for a while now?

For the record, I am with the crowd that thinks Miami is better than Alabama and Oklahoma, but those two losses for Miami were rough.

 

[IrishFanForever23]

 

[dankgesang]

I no longer want to go to the playoffs

 

[DCDomer]

Okay fellas, now that the dust has settled... what's the positive angle? What's the ND guaranteed super-lock scenario this weekend?

(plz give me something I watched every talking head in the country scare me to death today)

 

[Wild Bill]

Okay fellas, now that the dust has settled... what's the positive angle? What's the ND guaranteed super-lock scenario this weekend?

(plz give me something I watched every talking head in the country scare me to death today)

The only lock is if BYU wins, ND is locked out.

Positives are if BYU loses, and they should, ND has a very good chance to be the 10 seed.

 

[MacIrish75]

Pride of the Eastside, ladies and gents.

 

[GATTACA!]

FanDuel odds down to -355