2025 College Football Playoffs

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Almost every result went ND's way yesterday.

They will be in the top 10 of the playoff rankings this week. Win and in.
Including Miami. Miami needed help to make the ACC championship game even if they won out. If they hadn’t gotten that help then they make the playoffs at 11-1 and the ACC champion also makes it in. Miami losing saved us a potential seed.
 
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Huntr

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The Athletic predicts ND as the 8 seed hosting Texas Tech.

CBS Sports has ND on the road at Oregon as the 11 seed. Ducks need to worry more about Kinnick this Saturday night than the CFP tho.

ESPN has ND as the 10th seed going to BYU. But, they also have Texas Tech as the 8 seed, and 1 of those teams is getting left out. They play each other this weekend in Lubbock.
 

IrishLax

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The biggest bugaboo for ND is a team like UVA somehow having only one loss despite being total trash. Everything else is mostly fine.

The Miami thing is something else to keep an eye on because in a nightmare scenario where Georgia Tech beats Georgia, then loses the ACC Championship game to UVA, that league is getting two maybe three bids. The way ACC scheduling is done with their 17 team conference is a joke. And hopefully the committee sees through that.
 

notredomer23

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The biggest bugaboo for ND is a team like UVA somehow having only one loss despite being total trash. Everything else is mostly fine.

The Miami thing is something else to keep an eye on because in a nightmare scenario where Georgia Tech beats Georgia, then loses the ACC Championship game to UVA, that league is getting two maybe three bids. The way ACC scheduling is done with their 17 team conference is a joke. And hopefully the committee sees through that.

To further iterate the ACC scheduling being a joke, NC State beating UVA somehow being a non-conference game is nuts. It’s not like they scheduled the game 5 years ago before realignment.
 

stlnd01

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The biggest bugaboo for ND is a team like UVA somehow having only one loss despite being total trash. Everything else is mostly fine.

The Miami thing is something else to keep an eye on because in a nightmare scenario where Georgia Tech beats Georgia, then loses the ACC Championship game to UVA, that league is getting two maybe three bids. The way ACC scheduling is done with their 17 team conference is a joke. And hopefully the committee sees through that.
I just can't see a one-loss ACC team getting an at-large over us. It's pretty obvious that all those teams are mediocre, propped up by playing in a mediocre league. If we take care of business against Pitt (and everyone else) we'll have a bunch of good head-to-head outcomes, like stomping NC State who beat Ga. Tech. No one actually thinks Virginia is better than we are.

The only real threat there is Miami, because they did beat us and that should matter. But they now have two not-good losses. Will be curious to see how they're ranked on Tuesday.
 

IrishTusker

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To further iterate the ACC scheduling being a joke, NC State beating UVA somehow being a non-conference game is nuts. It’s not like they scheduled the game 5 years ago before realignment.
That's bizarre. I didn't know that.

The different results against a common opponent (NC State) have to matter vis-a-vis UVA and GT.
 
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NDFAN2008

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The biggest bugaboo for ND is a team like UVA somehow having only one loss despite being total trash. Everything else is mostly fine.

The Miami thing is something else to keep an eye on because in a nightmare scenario where Georgia Tech beats Georgia, then loses the ACC Championship game to UVA, that league is getting two maybe three bids. The way ACC scheduling is done with their 17 team conference is a joke. And hopefully the committee sees through that.
Yeah but how many committee members are even considering A&M a loss? It’s a good topic to bring up. We got robbed but an obvious no call
 

IrishTusker

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Yeah but how many committee members are even considering A&M a loss? It’s a good topic to bring up. We got robbed but an obvious no call
Obviously it's a loss but I think when you are comparing resumes, the nature of a loss (quality of the opponent, margin, ref issues) matter too. The missed call wouldn't matter as much if we had lost by 14 or something.
 

laughingirish92

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The Athletic predicts ND as the 8 seed hosting Texas Tech.

CBS Sports has ND on the road at Oregon as the 11 seed. Ducks need to worry more about Kinnick this Saturday night than the CFP tho.

ESPN has ND as the 10th seed going to BYU. But, they also have Texas Tech as the 8 seed, and 1 of those teams is getting left out. They play each other this weekend in Lubbock.
well Tech plays BYU next week which should be a hell of a game
 

NDRock

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The biggest bugaboo for ND is a team like UVA somehow having only one loss despite being total trash. Everything else is mostly fine.

The Miami thing is something else to keep an eye on because in a nightmare scenario where Georgia Tech beats Georgia, then loses the ACC Championship game to UVA, that league is getting two maybe three bids. The way ACC scheduling is done with their 17 team conference is a joke. And hopefully the committee sees through that.
It's why we need the SEC to only get 4 teams in. That leaves room for a weird ACC situation like you described or a weird 12-0 BYU losing a close CCG. Feels like we could see:
4 - SEC
3 - Big 10
1/2 - ACC
1/2 - Big 12
1 - Group of 6
1 - ND
 

Big23Head

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The biggest bugaboo for ND is a team like UVA somehow having only one loss despite being total trash. Everything else is mostly fine.

The Miami thing is something else to keep an eye on because in a nightmare scenario where Georgia Tech beats Georgia, then loses the ACC Championship game to UVA, that league is getting two maybe three bids. The way ACC scheduling is done with their 17 team conference is a joke. And hopefully the committee sees through that.

Just need Pitt to win out other than losing to ND.
 

stlnd01

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Yeah but how many committee members are even considering A&M a loss? It’s a good topic to bring up. We got robbed but an obvious no call
I'm not sure anyone on the CFP committee is really going to take a missed holding call from Week 3 into account when they're deciding playoff spots. But the fact that the game was so close it could have gone either way should work in our favor, especially if A&M finishes strong. It'll be a much "better loss" than a lot of the other teams gunning for the bottom half of the bracket have.
 

IrishLax

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I think OSU and … IU are pretty definitively the best teams in the country. We’re somewhere in the next group IMO with Oregon, Bama, A&M, UGA, and Ole Miss
SP+ basically says that we are in a clump from #5 (Texas A&M) to #10 (Bama) where all teams are within about 2 points of each other. Ohio State and Indiana are by far the best teams with Oregon/Texas Tech in a weird little gap then everyone else. The gap between Ohio State and Notre Dame is about the same as the gap between Notre Dame and Pitt on paper. It's sizable. And we're the #7 team in the country per those advanced stats.
 

IrishTusker

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I mean, yeah. Does anyone really think this team would beat OSU? Never say never, but I doubt it, partly because OSU is significantly better and partly because we never do, anyway. Questions should be asked about why OSU's defense lost a ton of talent and they replaced a QB and haven't missed a beat, while ND sputters along as usual. I think many of us expected this team to be better than last year's team. That doesn't appear to be the case right now.
 

SportsingHard

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I think OSU and … IU are pretty definitively the best teams in the country. We’re somewhere in the next group IMO with Oregon, Bama, A&M, UGA, and Ole Miss
Are you talking about playoff rankings or power rankings (most formidable teams at the moment regardless of resume)? As much appreciation as I have for Indiana, I wouldn't put anybody but OSU above ND in a power ranking.
 

NumbersGuy0520

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I mean, yeah. Does anyone really think this team would beat OSU? Never say never, but I doubt it, partly because OSU is significantly better and partly because we never do, anyway. Questions should be asked about why OSU's defense lost a ton of talent and they replaced a QB and haven't missed a beat, while ND sputters along as usual. I think many of us expected this team to be better than last year's team. That doesn't appear to be the case right now.
Hot take but I do think OSU is being overrated this year largely based on past success. They are the best team in the country, but I don’t think it’s by the margin that everyone thinks.

Their schedule panned out so they’ve been relatively untested so far, which means they’re hard to gauge. Texas was technically a test but that opening week Texas team is far different from where they are now.

They’ve got a top tier defense. Their run game has been meh, but Sayin is just doing what he needs to do: completing passes to wide open WRs because the opposing secondaries have no way to handle the WRU receiving core. It will be interesting to see how he looks if they play better defenses in the playoffs.
 

NDQuebec

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The Athletic predicts ND as the 8 seed hosting Texas Tech.

CBS Sports has ND on the road at Oregon as the 11 seed. Ducks need to worry more about Kinnick this Saturday night than the CFP tho.

ESPN has ND as the 10th seed going to BYU. But, they also have Texas Tech as the 8 seed, and 1 of those teams is getting left out. They play each other this weekend in Lubbock.
Fox has ND 12th, behind Texas and Oklahoma, smh.
 

jprue24

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The Athletic predicts ND as the 8 seed hosting Texas Tech.

CBS Sports has ND on the road at Oregon as the 11 seed. Ducks need to worry more about Kinnick this Saturday night than the CFP tho.

ESPN has ND as the 10th seed going to BYU. But, they also have Texas Tech as the 8 seed, and 1 of those teams is getting left out. They play each other this weekend in Lubbock.
Undefeated BYU loses to TTU in the ccg. They both get in. Precedent is SMU.

Last year, if a team is in before the CCG, they didn't get knocked out. This feels like the most likely way ND gets left out.
 
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jprue24

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Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach both have ND as the 10 seed. They also have BYU and TTU playing back-to-back ccg and cfp games
 

stlnd01

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Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach both have ND as the 10 seed. They also have BYU and TTU playing back-to-back ccg and cfp games
Against each other? Thats ridiculous.
They are not going to set up a first-round game between two not-especially-big-name teams playing each other for the third time in six weeks.
Even if it maths out that way, they’ll just flip the 7 and 8 seeds or whatever to avoid it.
 

Dale

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There has been a lot of references to last year the conference champion not being punished. A few things on that need to be said. First, it’s a one year sample size. Second, there was zero viable 2 loss teams on the outside looking in. The SEC teams all had 3 losses, Miami had lost WK 14 to Syracuse and BYU had lost in WK 12 and 13. Third, SMU lost on a walk off FG to a perceived good Clemson team. The important ranking in this was SMUs. It went as the following in the CFP rankings prior to the weekend:

SMU: 13 - 14 - 13 - 9 - 8

The teams that you would be eying as “won’t fall out” ACC or Big 12 losers would be: BYU, Texas Tech, Virginia, Georgia Tech and Louisville. BYU - Texas Tech will receive a loss this weekend, does that push the loser out of the Top 15ish? Georgia Tech will either deserve an at large with a win versus UGA or won’t. They will not be in the Top 12 with a WK 14 loss. UVA and Louisville are the two biggest problem cases.
 

Huntr

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UVA and Louisville are the two biggest problem cases.


And UL already lost to UVA. Still a lot of football to play.

As far as "tough" games go, UVA has to get by Duke. GaTech has UGA and Pitt. UL has Clempson, SMU and Kentucky.

There will be some L's in there.
 

IrishinSyria

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Yeah but how many committee members are even considering A&M a loss? It’s a good topic to bring up. We got robbed but an obvious no call
Literally none of them think this and you’ll probably be happier if you get the idea that it was anything but a loss out of your head.
 

jprue24

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There has been a lot of references to last year the conference champion not being punished. A few things on that need to be said. First, it’s a one year sample size. Second, there was zero viable 2 loss teams on the outside looking in. The SEC teams all had 3 losses, Miami had lost WK 14 to Syracuse and BYU had lost in WK 12 and 13. Third, SMU lost on a walk off FG to a perceived good Clemson team. The important ranking in this was SMUs. It went as the following in the CFP rankings prior to the weekend:

SMU: 13 - 14 - 13 - 9 - 8

The teams that you would be eying as “won’t fall out” ACC or Big 12 losers would be: BYU, Texas Tech, Virginia, Georgia Tech and Louisville. BYU - Texas Tech will receive a loss this weekend, does that push the loser out of the Top 15ish? Georgia Tech will either deserve an at large with a win versus UGA or won’t. They will not be in the Top 12 with a WK 14 loss. UVA and Louisville are the two biggest problem cases.
If we are being completely honest, we'd only assume the committee will follow the broad guidelines they are given. Especially since there are different people on the committee every year, so unwritten standards do not always carry over.

But no one is doing that in this thread, so to your SMU background, I think BYU is going to be ranked higher than 13th on Tuesday. Undefeated BYU would be solidly in the top 12 going into ccg week. If BYU's only loss is, a non-blow-out, in the ccg, they will get in over ND. I don't see how that wouldn't happen on the merit.
 

stpeteirish

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Looking at the AP poll and remaining schedules I think we have a pretty good shot at the 8th seed if we win out. 8-10 is quite reasonable. Other 8-10 candidates look like the 5th SEC team (Vandy Texas, Okla) ACC champ if they only have one loss and a two loss Oregon team. If Oregon and BYU win out they stay ahead of us and knock us down to 10th but there are some tough games on each of their schedules. Those are the two teams I really have an eye on re getting that coveted 8th seed.
If we lose to Pitt the committee kill us and rightfully so.
Speaking of the committee if they differ dramatically from the AP poll it changes everything but I think the AP poll is going to prove to be close to what the committee comes up with.
 

NDty9

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Hearing a lot of talk saying that we are pretty much tied to Miami… if they don’t lose another game, we are out… obv due to the head to head. Thoughts on that ?
 
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