Jan 20 | National Championship

IRISHDODGER

IRISHDODGER

Blue Chip Recruit
Messages
8,046
Reaction score
6,114
stlnd01 said:
FWIW, I, for one, am more worried about their defense than their offense.
Click to expand...
Fair. But some of that is b/c the ND offense is so hamstrung right now w/ injuries & now true passing threat. Even the most biased ND fan can’t point out advantages that ND has over OSU. Which is why I’m glad the games aren’t played on paper.
 
stlnd01

stlnd01

Was away. Now returned.
Messages
13,386
Reaction score
10,247
IRISHDODGER said:
Fair. But some of that is b/c the ND offense is so hamstrung right now w/ injuries & now true passing threat. Even the most biased ND fan can’t point out advantages that ND has over OSU. Which is why I’m glad the games aren’t played on paper.
Click to expand...
Well yes. I think our defense can reasonably contain their offense. I'm not as confident in our offense's ability to score on their defense. Barring big plays from our RBs, Leonard will need to have the game of his life.
 
greyhammer90

greyhammer90

the drunk piano player
Messages
16,837
Reaction score
16,111
When trying to pick a game for betting or that my heart is involved in, I usually ask myself what is objectively most likely of these scenarios: OSU wins close over ND, ND wins close over OSU, OSU wins big over ND, ND wins big over OSU.

Generally what I've found is that, regardless of how I stack up the "win close" categories, the team that has the advantage in the "win big" ends up being the actual winner of the game. And obviously if one team is more likely to win big than lose close, you have the makings of an ass-kicking.

Unfortunately this is where my head lands on this game from most likely to least likely:

1) OSU wins close over ND
2/3 Tie) ND wins close over OSU/OSU wins big over ND
4) ND wins big over OSU
 
I

IrishTusker

Well-known member
Messages
1,706
Reaction score
1,771
greyhammer90 said:
When trying to pick a game for betting or that my heart is involved in, I usually ask myself what is objectively most likely of these scenarios: OSU wins close over ND, ND wins close over OSU, OSU wins big over ND, ND wins big over OSU.

Generally what I've found is that, regardless of how I stack up the "win close" categories, the team that has the advantage in the "win big" ends up being the actual winner of the game. And obviously if one team is more likely to win big than lose close, you have the makings of an ass-kicking.

Unfortunately this is where my head lands on this game from most likely to least likely:

1) OSU wins close over ND
2/3 Tie) ND wins close over OSU/OSU wins big over ND
4) ND wins big over OSU
Click to expand...
Are there times when a favorite is less likely to "win big" than the other team? The bigger the line, the more likely the favorite wins.
 
greyhammer90

greyhammer90

the drunk piano player
Messages
16,837
Reaction score
16,111
IrishTusker said:
Are there times when a favorite is less likely to "win big" than the other team? The bigger the line, the more likely the favorite wins.
Click to expand...

Texas A&M was one for me this year. I thought there was a good shot that they would win a close game because of home field advantage, Texas weather, early emotion, and because ND had struggled in hostile away games under Freeman. I also thought there was extremely low chance they beat us by more than 10 because of our returning defense and the fact that they were installing a new offense.
 
InKellyWeTrust

InKellyWeTrust

Well-known member
Messages
2,955
Reaction score
3,387
greyhammer90 said:
When trying to pick a game for betting or that my heart is involved in, I usually ask myself what is objectively most likely of these scenarios: OSU wins close over ND, ND wins close over OSU, OSU wins big over ND, ND wins big over OSU.

Generally what I've found is that, regardless of how I stack up the "win close" categories, the team that has the advantage in the "win big" ends up being the actual winner of the game. And obviously if one team is more likely to win big than lose close, you have the makings of an ass-kicking.

Unfortunately this is where my head lands on this game from most likely to least likely:

1) OSU wins close over ND
2/3 Tie) ND wins close over OSU/OSU wins big over ND
4) ND wins big over OSU
Click to expand...
1a) OSU close win
1b) ND close win







3) OSU big
4) ND big

Notre Dame doesn't get blown out with this defense, it just won't happen.
 
Fbolt

Fbolt

I've been around
Messages
6,936
Reaction score
2,254
If ND can establish a decent run game, they can Win. It's been who they were throughout the season but they have been challenged significantly with that in the playoffs. Denbrock and Rudolph need to be creative and motivate the OL.
 
Fbolt

Fbolt

I've been around
Messages
6,936
Reaction score
2,254
greyhammer90 said:
When trying to pick a game for betting or that my heart is involved in, I usually ask myself what is objectively most likely of these scenarios: OSU wins close over ND, ND wins close over OSU, OSU wins big over ND, ND wins big over OSU.

Generally what I've found is that, regardless of how I stack up the "win close" categories, the team that has the advantage in the "win big" ends up being the actual winner of the game. And obviously if one team is more likely to win big than lose close, you have the makings of an ass-kicking.

Unfortunately this is where my head lands on this game from most likely to least likely:

1) OSU wins close over ND
2/3 Tie) ND wins close over OSU/OSU wins big over ND
4) ND wins big over OSU
Click to expand...
I see 2 scenarios here, 4 and 1. I'm also realizing 4 is a Homer take however, with a run game and OSU turnovers, it can happen.
 
NDPhilly

NDPhilly

Philly Torqued
Messages
16,444
Reaction score
16,737
IrishLax said:
Connelly says this is the "best" ND team since 1992 per SP+ advanced stats, got me thinking... with a locked in top 5 finish, a major bowl victory (2x), and a program record in wins...

Is this the best season since 1988? Certainly since 1993, right?
Click to expand...

And this is with all the OL injuries + missing top 2 DEs and BenMo for most of year.

Just insane what these guys have done, regardless of what happens Monday.
 
Pops Freshenmeyer

Pops Freshenmeyer

Well-known member
Messages
5,112
Reaction score
2,457
IrishLax said:
Connelly says this is the "best" ND team since 1992 per SP+ advanced stats, got me thinking... with a locked in top 5 finish, a major bowl victory (2x), and a program record in wins...

Is this the best season since 1988? Certainly since 1993, right?
Click to expand...
I think it's definitely better than the 1993 season.
 
GATTACA!

GATTACA!

It's about to get gross
Messages
15,113
Reaction score
12,947
stlnd01 said:
Looks like poor Rudransh is just pumping out clickbait/SEO-driven garbage all day, on British time so it's there when American audiences wake up in the morning. Like his fascinating piece on whether Donovan and Kurt Hinish are brothers.

www.essentiallysports.com

Rudransh Atri

Rudransh Atri leads author initiatives at the ES College Football Perspectives Desk, where he focuses on immersive storytelling through data-driven analysis, player polls, and in-depth features. A wide receiver for the Durham Saints in the BUCS American Football Premiership, he brings a...
www.essentiallysports.com
Click to expand...
He should stick to cricket or the gay football.
 
IRISHDODGER

IRISHDODGER

Blue Chip Recruit
Messages
8,046
Reaction score
6,114
Pops Freshenmeyer said:
I think it's definitely better than the 1993 season.
Click to expand...
Not exactly apples-to-apples season comparatively. That 93 team had tons more NFL draft picks contributing. I’d say 1993 was the more talented team but this season is hard to beat in that there’s never been an opportunity to win a home CFP game, 2 major bowls & a NC game in the same season. That’s bonkers.
 
IRISHDODGER

IRISHDODGER

Blue Chip Recruit
Messages
8,046
Reaction score
6,114
IrishLax said:
Connelly says this is the "best" ND team since 1992 per SP+ advanced stats, got me thinking... with a locked in top 5 finish, a major bowl victory (2x), and a program record in wins...

Is this the best season since 1988? Certainly since 1993, right?
Click to expand...
Who puts out the final poll…CFP or AP/Coaches?
 
IRISHDODGER

IRISHDODGER

Blue Chip Recruit
Messages
8,046
Reaction score
6,114
dublinirish said:
if ND wins the natty i feel like i'll be rewatching the UGA, PSU and OSU games for the rest of my life. It they dont win it then i just don't think ill have the stomach to watch a second of either ever again
Click to expand...
I’ll rewatch the wins. If they lose, I’ll flush it immediately.
 
stlnd01

stlnd01

Was away. Now returned.
Messages
13,386
Reaction score
10,247
IRISHDODGER said:
Not exactly apples-to-apples season comparatively. That 93 team had tons more NFL draft picks contributing. I’d say 1993 was the more talented team but this season is hard to beat in that there’s never been an opportunity to win a home CFP game, 2 major bowls & a NC game in the same season. That’s bonkers.
Click to expand...
This playoff run has been remarkable and so much fun, but I don't know that there's anything anymore like the hype around the Florida State game that year. They basically invented Gameday for that one. And remember that Rudy was in theaters that fall...
Was quite a time to be an impressionable young Notre Dame fan.
 
Jimmy3Putt

Jimmy3Putt

KooL
Messages
5,775
Reaction score
6,684
NDpendent said:
The best part with how good this team is, is how young they are. We are going to be very good for a minute
Click to expand...

Imo, we will be a better team next year, but that doesn’t mean more success. We might not ever make the championship game again so they need to win while the opportunity is there.
 
Irish4life

Irish4life

Well-known member
Messages
2,887
Reaction score
3,674
IrishLax said:
Connelly says this is the "best" ND team since 1992 per SP+ advanced stats, got me thinking... with a locked in top 5 finish, a major bowl victory (2x), and a program record in wins...

Is this the best season since 1988? Certainly since 1993, right?
Click to expand...
Without a doubt it's the best season since 1993.
 
dublinirish

dublinirish

Everestt Gholstonson
Messages
27,329
Reaction score
13,092
ah tbh 2012 (to the point we are at now, few days from the natty) was an amazing year with so many stories and big plays and victories
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top