Sep 28 | Louisville

NDPhilly

NDPhilly

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Rush defense is pedestrian as we’ve seen, but pass defense is terrific.

Louisville overall is pretty mediocre, but solid against the run.
 
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NumbersGuy0520

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To the surprise of no one, our highly rated offense adjusted EPA/play is being carried by our rushing EPA/play, whereas our passing EPA/play is below the average
 
Terry Jillery

Terry Jillery

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NumbersGuy0520 said:
I keep seeing this Steve Angeli sack narrative, primarily off Purdue recency bias I’d imagine. Aside from Purdue…

- Sacked just twice in the bowl game last year.
- Literally never sacked in 2023 (obviously very small sample size of drives). But he did go 8-11 for 130 yards and 2 TDs against TNST, and 6-7 for 92 yards and 1 TD against Pitt, so he did see some action… and he was never sacked.

He was sacked three times against Purdue but I really think he just went in with a “fuck it we ball” mindset, trying to make things happen with the game out of hand to increase playing time.

Steve is mobile enough to occasionally avoid pressure when it comes. If the tradeoff is a few sacks per game (which happens to basically any QB) at the gain of a legitimate passing attack, give me that any time.

Sorry for the essay. I’ve just seen the sack argument raised several times and I think it’s significantly overblown, primarily as copium and a gasping-at-straws defense for sticking with Riley (who, I’ll admit, has higher upside if he puts it all together).
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I think it’s more bc our line isn’t good and RL is hard to tackle. Not Steve per se but any of our QBs would struggle imo avoiding sacks. Steve just happens to be second string.
 
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NumbersGuy0520

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Terry Jillery said:
I think it’s more bc our line isn’t good and RL is hard to tackle. Not Steve per se but any of our QBs would struggle imo avoiding sacks. Steve just happens to be second string.
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Totally agree there - our line is also a big reason for the narrative.

I just don’t think the difference between Steve’s and RL’s escapability is enough to outweigh the difference between Steve’s throwing ability vs RL’s.
 
IRISHDODGER

IRISHDODGER

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Pops Freshenmeyer said:
My daughter will be playing soccer in the Nashville area this weekend. So that will be an adventure.
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Save yourself some time & possibly trouble and just avoid social media & texts so you can enjoy your daughter’s games. Then when you know the game is over, check the final. If ND won, you can rewatch at your leisure. If ND lost, you don’t have to put yourself through all the ups & mostly downs. Good luck & enjoy your daughter this weekend!
 
NDPhilly

NDPhilly

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Funny enough, ND was a -7.5pt favorite over Purdue. Bookies had no idea had no idea what to think of us after NIU
 
OKCDomer23

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T-Boone said:
The wind may push some of RLs passes in the direction of the reciever.
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Lol. His passing needs to be on for us to win this game, although I am encouraged by this potential windy day. Huge game for Leonard and of course ND.

Go Irish!!!!
 
rtrn2glory

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I have the stupid feeling that we're going to shit on them this weekend.

So if you want to make money go against my instincts.
 
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JamIrish

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For the record, tracking where the money is, will more often times than not, give you a better indicator on how ND games will go. For anyone who thinks Vegas doesn't know...here is the Money % breakdown on spreads/moneyline, and O/U on ND's 1st 4 games.

Texas A&M- 63% on A&M spread- ND covers
55% on Under- Game went under
86% on A&M to win- ND won

NIU- 61% on ND to cover- They didn't
82% on Over- Game went under
70% on NIU to win?- NIU won

Purdue. 59% on ND to cover- They did
78% on the under- ND scores 66!!!
52% on Purdue to win- ND won

Miami OH. 86% on ND to cover- They didn't
87% on the Over- It went under
89% on Miami Oh to win- ND wins

Sharps absolutely hammered NIU and Miami OH on the moneyline, hence the big money amount. So Vegas has reaped a large profit from ND games thus far(just like they tend to do). As far as the NIU game goes... although they were 18-1..I don't imagine the handle was that large of a payout because an overwhelming amount of the money bet on the game was on the spread and total.
 
FLDomer

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My sons Pop Warner team (that I coach) has a bye week….haven’t watched a game live this yr. Honestly nervous about this game due to the lack of passing. My Pop Warner qb is a better passer lol
 
NDPhilly

NDPhilly

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These ticket prices right now are nuts for a top 20 match up - so many for sale seats in the Lville section. Do they just not care?
 
RipWheeler

RipWheeler

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There is one benefit to working graveyard and being a fan of ND. I’m asleep during the game most generally so win it’s a pleasant surprise to wake up to. A loss, I’m less invested in having slept through it. Plus it keeps my marriage in tact as I’m not yelling at the TV 😂
 
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WildMan1

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I rewatched the A&M game..

Riley’s short passing game was effective but also leaned on lots of screens.

He had the deep ball PI & the one medium throw that Beaux made a man handed grab on.

Besides that it was the running game & big plays on D that got us the win.

I still can’t fathom the reality of losing to NIU.. It makes no sense.

Anyway.. the tape is out there. Riley can’t throw deep & even if Mike wants to force him to we’re at best hoping for a PI or blown coverage.

Louisville DL, especially Konga is really disruptive & they have an explosive offense.

I just don’t see an identity behind Leonard & I think if Marcus sticks with him we lose in similar fashion as last year.
 
Wild Bill

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JamIrish said:
For the record, tracking where the money is, will more often times than not, give you a better indicator on how ND games will go. For anyone who thinks Vegas doesn't know...here is the Money % breakdown on spreads/moneyline, and O/U on ND's 1st 4 games.

Texas A&M- 63% on A&M spread- ND covers
55% on Under- Game went under
86% on A&M to win- ND won

NIU- 61% on ND to cover- They didn't
82% on Over- Game went under
70% on NIU to win?- NIU won

Purdue. 59% on ND to cover- They did
78% on the under- ND scores 66!!!
52% on Purdue to win- ND won

Miami OH. 86% on ND to cover- They didn't
87% on the Over- It went under
89% on Miami Oh to win- ND wins

Sharps absolutely hammered NIU and Miami OH on the moneyline, hence the big money amount. So Vegas has reaped a large profit from ND games thus far(just like they tend to do). As far as the NIU game goes... although they were 18-1..I don't imagine the handle was that large of a payout because an overwhelming amount of the money bet on the game was on the spread and total.
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Any idea where the money is at right now?
 
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