I hope everyone had a pleasant bye week. Cannot thank North Carolina enough for sending us into our free weekend with such a heartening win, as now if you power ranked how fans of teams with new coaches and already two losses are feeling at the moment, I think supporters of Notre Dame are definitely coming in ahead of Miami and Oklahoma and likely in front of the Gators as well. Of course, those good feelings might only last until the next game, a coin-flip (roulette spin?) affair in Las Vegas against a quality BYU team, but we take what we can get.
The big question the rest of the way is how much of what we’ve seen in the last six quarters on offense is replicable going forward. (I had the opportunity to talk to someone who actually understands football — Jamie Uyeyama of Irish Sports Daily — on the podcast about this very topic, which you can listen to
here.) I’m feeling good about the defense and good about the specialists, but it’s unquestionably going to be a high-wire act of needing good health, good decisions and good fortune to score points through the end of the season. Possible? Absolutely, but not something we can assume at any point this autumn.
Round-up of how previous opponents did before we take a little peek ahead: Ohio State beat its fourth straight opponent by at least 31 points, Marshall finally won another game (it was against an FCS team but still counts), Cal had a bad effort on the road against a solid Washington State team and North Carolina had a solid effort at home against a bad Virginia Tech team. The Tar Heels only gave up ten points! None in the second half!! I won’t mind half-heartedly rooting for Mack Brown and company the rest of the way because the games will probably be entertaining and mostly occur against teams I’d like transitive wins against, starting Saturday with Miami.
BYU: The Cougars looked okay on Thursday night against Utah State as they moved to 4-1 on the season, but opponents have been able to run the ball against them, which is convenient for a ground-first Notre Dame attack. Big note with them is receivers Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua (combined for 77 catches, more than 1,500 yards of offense and nine touchdowns last year) have barely played and could be healthy for the Shamrock Series, which would be annoying. Due to all the churn in the poll, Freeman will have a shot at securing his first win over an AP Top 20 team, following up First Win/First Home Win and First Road Win.
Stanford: They stink. 127th in yards per rush allowed because they have no defensive linemen and 119th in sacks because they’re struggling to block as well. (I turned on their game against Washington and they had given up six sacks by the midway point of the second quarter.) Since kickoff of the 2018 game in South Bend, they’re 17-26. Could quarterback Tanner McKee get hot for a half and keep this interesting? Maybe, but the Irish should be able to run at will.
UNLV: When Notre Dame scheduled this game, the Running Rebels were one of the worst teams in FBS. Now they’re kind of just a half-decent, quasi-respectable G5 squad, which is a huge compliment to head coach Marcus Arroyo. Speaking of, I need to apologize because I implied Arroyo was responsible for Justin Herbert being misused during his final year at Oregon. With the additional evidence we’ve acquired this year, I think that blame falls on Mario Cristobal. Before they come to South Bend, the Rebels play San Jose State and Air Force — who might be the two best teams in the Mountain West — so I'm not sure how much gas they're going to have in the tank, but please do not lose at home to Marshall and UNLV in the same year.
Syracuse: Undefeated! The Orange whooped Wagner so badly on Saturday they ran
10 minute quarters in the second half, but their most recent useful data point was playing very ugly against a very bad Virginia team at home. Quarterback Garrett Shrader is holding onto the ball way too long and is likely to have some trouble with the Irish defensive front, but new offensive coordinator Robert Anae (who concocted Virginia’s fun 2021 attack) is doing good work overall. Plus, do not sleep on tailback Sean Tucker or the linebackers. Syracuse is on a bye this Saturday but then plays NC State and Clemson back-to-back before the Irish come to town, so we will have a much better idea of their quality by the time we play.
Clemson: Undefeated! Showed some leakiness in the secondary against Wake Forest but unless things change drastically before kickoff on Nov. 5, I don’t think the Irish passing attack is going to resemble what Sam Hartman is doing week in and week out. The defensive line is ridiculous, meaning it will indeed be a long night trying to scratch out any kind of run game. The thing that makes this game scarier than it appeared two weeks ago is that the offense is looking solid, particularly compared to last year’s nightmare. When he drops back to pass and has time, DJ Uiagalelei seems so uncomfortable at moments he feels like a manifestation of all my anxieties, but just as I somehow hold it together to do normal human things DJU has come through more often than not: 11 touchdowns, one pick, 65% completion rate, an adequate threat in the run game. If it wasn’t for the heavy level of hype (top recruit, threw for 900 yards in South Bend) to compare him to, everyone would collectively nod and say the Clemson quarterback is doing solid work. This is going to be tough, but the Irish are capable of winning a rock fight.
Navy: Not good at all, but game efforts the last couple weeks, stealing a win against East Carolina and almost doing the same against a quality Air Force team. This is going to be a noon kickoff in an NFL stadium the week after a monster home game so the potential for a hangover is high. While Brian Kelly lost to Navy in his first season playing in a noon game in an NFL stadium and went on to a successful tenure, let’s not follow that specific of a path.
Boston College: Came through with a monster win against Louisville on Saturday as a two-touchdown home underdog, because it legitimately seemed like they might not beat a non-UConn FBS team this season. Receiver Zay Flowers is incredible but that’s kind of all they have, as a decimated offensive line is getting Phil Jurkovec killed. They’re 125th in sacks allowed, Jurkovec has already thrown six picks but what makes it particularly tough is the defense — Jeff Hafley’s calling card — has only been average, clocking in at 64th in the latest SP+. I understand that playing Boston College on Senior Day is going to result in some emoting, but this series hasn’t been close of late, with the Irish winning the last three by an average of 25.
Southern Cal: Undefeated! First things first: Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison are cool as hell and great at football and give the Trojans a chance to put up a couple of crooked numbers any time they take the field. However: This team has been absolutely blessed by the gods of turnover luck and has gone against a real mishmash of defenses (SP+ ranks of 112th, 106th, 85th, 59th and 70th), coming damn close to losing in Corvalis against the best of the bunch. We'll have a better idea of how much of Lincoln Riley's first USC team is steak versus sizzle by the time the finale rolls around, as they will host decent Washington State (29th in defense), travel to Utah (24th) and play at currently undefeated UCLA (48th) the week before they host the Irish. (They also play Cal in there if you want to lean too far into transitive comparisons.) Will the Irish be capable of winning a high-stakes shootout by Thanksgiving?
Brief hoops interlude: At the end of summer, the men’s basketball recruiting class consisted of one 5’10” Mishawaka native, leading to questions such as “Mike Brey, seriously?” and concerns about another hole in the roster. But lo and behold, he’s pulled it off again. That undersized guard, Markus Burton, is up to 115th in the 247 Composite and
extremely fun to watch. In the final weeks of September, Brey then added two more Top 150 players. This rating won’t last, but the class is now ranked 16th overall and 3rd in the ACC, after finishing 22nd and 6th in those same categories last cycle. Still need some more size but there’s always the transfer portal? Excited for this season – five-star freshman J.J. Starling working with the elite spacing provided by the veterans could be a blast to watch.