Russia Invades Ukraine

ab2cmiller

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After reading the debates back and forth I can only conclude that this is a complex issue. The nuances are numerous. Even the nuances have nuances. Moves, counter moves, counter counter moves. Anyone who thinks that the answer is obvious isn't living in reality.
 

PerthDomer

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Building off your last sentence (without italics this time), Ukraine was the capitol of the Kievan Rus, the foundation of Slavic civilization. For those who still have a sense of Slavic nationalism, watching Ukraine join NATO or the EU would be a bit like watching Rome fall to the Byzantine Empire for Catholics. The history here is real, and pretending its all pretense for Putin's will to power does not improve our understanding of the situation.
That's the threat to Putin. Ukraine or Belarus joining the EU shows that the slavs could function in a liberal democracy. It threatens Putin. But just saying you can't be free seems like telling a battered wife she needs to stay w her husband because he'd really fly off the handle if she left.
 

PerthDomer

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No worries. I don't want any nukes fired at my kids or grandkids either. I don't think NATO should be a given, but I don't mind helping a country get a democracy established. Besides how do you justify adding a country to NATO that is almost 6,000 miles from the Atlantic?
Turkey is an OG member and further from the Atlantic than the Ukraine.
 

Irish#1

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After reading the debates back and forth I can only conclude that this is a complex issue. The nuances are numerous. Even the nuances have nuances. Moves, counter moves, counter counter moves. Anyone who thinks that the answer is obvious isn't living in reality.
You sound like your describing a wrestling match (not WWE).
 

tussin

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I don't want my kids to die in a nuclear firestorm because a bunch of Couch Generals who's brains were addled by the Marvel Cinematic Universe think it'd be fun to LARP as the Avengers in Eastern Europe.
As long as it's not your kids!
 

NDPhilly

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Anyone here want to defend Turkey if they get attacked? No desire.
 

Cackalacky2.0

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After reading the debates back and forth I can only conclude that this is a complex issue. The nuances are numerous. Even the nuances have nuances. Moves, counter moves, counter counter moves. Anyone who thinks that the answer is obvious isn't living in reality.
Reminds me of a quote by a cpu in a 1980s. Cold War movie about not playing the game
 

RDU Irish

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After reading the debates back and forth I can only conclude that this is a complex issue. The nuances are numerous. Even the nuances have nuances. Moves, counter moves, counter counter moves. Anyone who thinks that the answer is obvious isn't living in reality.

Let me help summarize- "Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine, so basically that’s wrong."
 

Whiskeyjack

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As long as it's not your kids!
This gets tiresome. Here's a brief summary of many exchanges I've witnessed on Ukrainian-Flag Avatar Twitter recently:
A: "We have to do something!"
B: "We are doing something." *gestures toward materiel support, diplomatic efforts, and unprecedented economic sanctions*
A: "That's not enough. We have to declare war against Russia."
B: "But Putin has nukes. No Western nation has ever dared open war against a nuclear power before."
A: "[insert ad hominem about B being a coward/Russian stooge/uncaring monster/etc.]"

Let's be very clear here. Those in favor of direct military action against Russia need a damned good answer for what to do about their ICBMs and nuclear-armed submarines. "It'll probably be fine" is not a f*cking strategy. Until you have a rebuttal for that objection, you have no leg to stand on in this debate.
That's the threat to Putin. Ukraine or Belarus joining the EU shows that the slavs could function in a liberal democracy. It threatens Putin. But just saying you can't be free seems like telling a battered wife she needs to stay w her husband because he'd really fly off the handle if she left.
Let's extend that metaphor a bit. Imagine the abusive husband also has every building in town rigged with explosives. So while America, Global Cop, would love to swoop in, impound all his guns and toss his ass in jail, until the bombs are defused, hand-wringing over the battered wife's safety is entirely besides the point.
 

Irish#1

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Let me help summarize- "Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine, so basically that’s wrong."
 

IrishLax

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This gets tiresome. Here's a brief summary of many exchanges I've witnessed on Ukrainian-Flag Avatar Twitter recently:
A: "We have to do something!"
B: "We are doing something." *gestures toward materiel support, diplomatic efforts, and unprecedented economic sanctions*
A: "That's not enough. We have to declare war against Russia."
B: "But Putin has nukes. No Western nation has ever dared open war against a nuclear power before."
A: "[insert ad hominem about B being a coward/Russian stooge/uncaring monster/etc.]"

Let's be very clear here. Those in favor of direct military action against Russia need a damned good answer for what to do about their ICBMs and nuclear-armed submarines. "It'll probably be fine" is not a f*cking strategy. Until you have a rebuttal for that objection, you have no leg to stand on in this debate.

Let's extend that metaphor a bit. Imagine the abusive husband also has every building in town rigged with explosives. So while America, Global Cop, would love to swoop in, impound all his guns and toss his ass in jail, until the bombs are defused, hand-wringing over the battered wife's safety is entirely besides the point.
The “rebuttal” is that unless you are going to remove Putin then you are eventually going to have to fight him somewhere and the cost gets higher every time you let him “succeed”. The sanctions don’t hurt him, they hurt his people. The sanctions don’t remove him from power. The sanctions do nothing to change the status quo, they just box him more into a corner where he becomes increasingly likely to do something desperate to retain his position.
 

ShamrockOnHelmet

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Soooo not great. Sanctions hitting home now.

I wouldn’t say that means sanctions are hitting home. Sanctions maybe hitting colossally stupid investors at home. whomever advised a teachers unions pension plan to be THAT invested in any single foreign entity, let alone A RUSSIAN BANK should immediately be fired for gross incompetence.
 

tussin

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This gets tiresome. Here's a brief summary of many exchanges I've witnessed on Ukrainian-Flag Avatar Twitter recently:
A: "We have to do something!"
B: "We are doing something." *gestures toward materiel support, diplomatic efforts, and unprecedented economic sanctions*
A: "That's not enough. We have to declare war against Russia."
B: "But Putin has nukes. No Western nation has ever dared open war against a nuclear power before."
A: "[insert ad hominem about B being a coward/Russian stooge/uncaring monster/etc.]"
The only point I'm making is that the families being blown up in Ukraine right now probably aren't sleeping any easier at night because US inaction is preventing Putin from going nuclear.

I don't have the policy answers so don't call me an armchair Marvel stan, but I suspect that just mayyybe there are additional military options beyond irrelevant sanctions (to Putin), seizing yachts from rich people, and Twitter hashtags that we can take to support Ukraine without shitting our pants that Putin will murder us all and end the Western world.
 
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IrishBoognish

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I wouldn’t say that means sanctions are hitting home. Sanctions maybe hitting colossally stupid investors at home. whomever advised a teachers unions pension plan to be THAT invested in any single foreign entity, let alone A RUSSIAN BANK should immediately be fired for gross incompetence.


That sounds like potentially criminal incompetence.
 

ab2cmiller

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Soooo not great. Sanctions hitting home now.

Well the good news appears to be that they got out immediately at the start of the invasion. So they lost 3.2 million on a 15.5 million dollar investment. Obviously sucks for them, but a lot better than losing 95%.

Beau Barnes, TRS' general counsel, said Friday TRS sold off its direct investments Feb. 23, losing $3.2 million of its initial $15.6 million investment. Russia invaded Ukraine the next day.

"We actually got out at a very good time because we were able to sell on the 23rd, when you could still get some good value on your Sberbank shares," Barnes said.
 

TorontoGold

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I wouldn’t say that means sanctions are hitting home. Sanctions maybe hitting colossally stupid investors at home. whomever advised a teachers unions pension plan to be THAT invested in any single foreign entity, let alone A RUSSIAN BANK should immediately be fired for gross incompetence.

Found this article. Looks like they lost $3.2M on sale. In a portfolio of $26B that's a fart in the wind. Their total position was roughly 0.012% of their total holdings. It's like getting hit with an extra $0.15 on your phone bill.

Strange that they have 60% of their holdings in equities though, especially for a pension fund. https://trs.ky.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/TRS-2021-ACFR-Final.pdf
 

Cackalacky2.0

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I wouldn’t say that means sanctions are hitting home. Sanctions maybe hitting colossally stupid investors at home. whomever advised a teachers unions pension plan to be THAT invested in any single foreign entity, let alone A RUSSIAN BANK should immediately be fired for gross incompetence.
There will absolutely be many people and companies in this country that have been working with or for Russian entities that will be impacted by the sanctions. I’m really shocked anninvestment firm would put teachers money in that bank though. Talk about risky.
 

Sea Turtle

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Reports that Russian soldiers are raping Ukranian women. Lovely.
 

Whiskeyjack

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The “rebuttal” is that unless you are going to remove Putin then you are eventually going to have to fight him somewhere and the cost gets higher every time you let him “succeed”. The sanctions don’t hurt him, they hurt his people. The sanctions don’t remove him from power. The sanctions do nothing to change the status quo, they just box him more into a corner where he becomes increasingly likely to do something desperate to retain his position.
Are we really going to have to fight him eventually? You could have made that argument dozens of times based on Soviet aggression during the Cold War, yet we never ended up taking direct military action, and that was the right call; the USSR collapsed due to internal weaknesses and we didn't have to risk nuclear war to win. Putin is not acting from a position of strength here. Allowing his removal to happen "organically" is likely the prudent choice.

There's this stubborn portion of the commentariat for whom every war is WWII, every authoritarian is Hitler, and every European conflict is 1939 again. Nukes, NATO, and Russia's relative weakness make those comparison's completely off mark.

Economic sanctions will just box Putin in and make him desperate, but mobilizing NATO to fight him directly won't?

The only point I'm making is that the families being blown up in Ukraine right now probably aren't sleeping any easier at night because US inaction is preventing Putin from going nuclear.
Your point was that I'm OK with Ukrainian kids getting killed as long as its not my own. Those who've suffered through reading my posts in the Politics and Theology threads over the last decade should be able to attest that I'm all about the strong protecting the weak and sacrificing for the Common Good. When you're dealing with an aggressor who has nukes, there are no good options.
I don't have the policy answers so don't call me an armchair Marvel stan, but I suspect that just mayyybe there are additional military options beyond irrelevant sanctions (to Putin), seizing yachts from rich people, and Twitter hashtags that we can take to support Ukraine without shitting our pants that Putin will murder us all and end the Western world.
I'd love to hear them. I hope we're exploring all avenues--Putin's assassination, crippling Russia's nuclear capabilities in a coordinated strike, incentivizing a reform-minded Russia to overthrow Putin in the interest of opening back up to the West and making the Russian people prosperous again, etc.

But a lot of people are flippantly insisting that we do something no Western nation has dared do before in the nuclear age. It's reckless.
 
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ab2cmiller

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Found this article. Looks like they lost $3.2M on sale. In a portfolio of $26B that's a fart in the wind. Their total position was roughly 0.012% of their total holdings. It's like getting hit with an extra $0.15 on your phone bill.

Strange that they have 60% of their holdings in equities though, especially for a pension fund. https://trs.ky.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/TRS-2021-ACFR-Final.pdf
It looks like their investment returns over the last number of years have outperformed, but to your point, it's likely because they are overweight to equities. Their pension is 54% funded and they probably think a more aggressive approach will pan out for them.

One of the articles I read about Kentucky's state budget said that 10% of the entire state budget is going to the Teachers Pension system because of how bad the pension was underfunded. Crazy.
 

tussin

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Your point was that I'm OK with Ukrainian kids getting killed as long as its not my own. Those who've suffered through reading my posts in the Politics and Theology threads over the last decade should be able to attest that I'm all about the strong protecting the weak and sacrificing for the Common Good. When you're dealing with an aggressor who has nukes, there are no good options.
Apologies for a trollish tongue in cheek comment. I've been at this site for enough years, have had enough personal interactions with you, and have appreciated your substantial contributions to know that's not true.
 

RDU Irish

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The “rebuttal” is that unless you are going to remove Putin then you are eventually going to have to fight him somewhere and the cost gets higher every time you let him “succeed”. The sanctions don’t hurt him, they hurt his people. The sanctions don’t remove him from power. The sanctions do nothing to change the status quo, they just box him more into a corner where he becomes increasingly likely to do something desperate to retain his position.

I don't buy the "cost gets higher" narrative. He expends resources, gets weakened by sanctions and is spread thinner the further he advances. There is no way he is replacing equipment as fast as it is being destroyed. Putin has fewer operational tanks, helicopters and fighter jets today than he did two weeks ago. Meanwhile the international community is building a broader and more unified front with Europe finally realizing they need to step up to the plate on their military spending.

Maybe let Europe stew on this for a while before we get our undies in a bunch. Beware the military industrial complex.
 
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