2022 - State of the Recruiting Class thread

[texbender]

In yesterday edition of the Dallas Morning News, top 200 2022 ranked Dallas/Ft. Worth Area high schoolers had zero listed for ND. Thought we had some prescience here, but apparently not. Amazing the number committed/interested in Alabama.

 

[NDisme]

Going into the 2021 season my biggest concerns are the OL and WR. Those positions are also why biggest concern for the 2022 recruiting class.

 

[BobbyMac]

Going into the 2021 season my biggest concerns are the OL and WR. Those positions are also why biggest concern for the 2022 recruiting class.

Agreed 100% with the on field concerns but the recruiting doesn't match up.

ND desperately needs WR's to join Colzie, Styles (& hopefully Watts) in that next generation WR corp. When it comes to the OL, that next generation core is all here and you are gonna see a lot of Fish, Rocco, Zeke & Tosh over the next 3-4 years. Same as Eichenberg, Banks, Kraemer & Hainsey from '18-'20.

All Quinn has to do is figure out who his other guard in '22 and who his Josh Lugg supersub or subs will be.

Everyone they are currently recruiting is for Captain Alt's core that transitions in during '24 & '25.

 

[Luckylucci]

So, it's time to waive the white flag and say that June was not as eventful as expected but a lot of good came of it. I believe that Singer's over/under was at 19.5 for 2022 commits and we'll come up short of that, at 16. He also said 3 2023 commits and we'll come up short of that as well, with 2. Those that took the under, get your victory lap in here!

However, we'll probably get a lot of good news to start July. We'll probably hit those numbers quite soon. It feels like a near certainty that we'll be at 20 by the middle of July (knocks on wood). I think the defensive staff would have to have quite the blunder on their hands for that to not be the case.

But, since June is in the books, let's take a look at how things finished.

The defensive staff was able to get 4 commitments (Hinish, JR, Keeley, and Vernon). While the offensive staff got 2 (Craig and Madden). The defensive staff was trying to fill 2 LB spots, 2 DL, and 4-5 DB's. While the offensive staff was targeting 3 WR's, 1 RB, and 2-3 OL. Some of these are wants and not needs like the 2 DL and the 1 RB. So, it's not an apples to apples comparison. But it's pretty clear that one saw more success than the other.

The defensive staff also seems set to add to that number with decisions coming soon from Bellamy, Pope, Sneed, and Moore. It seems very likely ND lands 3 of those 4 but two of them continued to take visit/s (Moore and Pope). While the offensive staff seems set to add 1 (Anderson) who also took another visit to Oregon. Merriweather, Williams, and Wagner will take at least another month to decide, if not more. Singleton and all the other OL seem like they are not coming. It's really hard to handicap the Rice recruitment as there are some factors that might be out of ND's control.

I think the entire recruiting department did an incredible job with the June visit list. And, I think impacts of these June visits will be felt for months to come, in both the '22 and 23 class. But, I would be lying if I didn't admit these are very underwhelming results from the offensive staff. While I like Craig quite a bit, he wasn't a target prior to June. So, the staff was only able to come away with 1 target that they previously set forth to get. That's not very good.

Again, these are just the results so far. There were other positives that came from June like Walker seemingly being solid in his commitment and I'm more convinced than ever that Price is a stud RB recruit. But, it's hard to overlook the fact that the offensive staff tried to lock these guys down and couldn't. It may not matter in the end but it'll be fun to discuss while it does.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

How is Tommy Rees viewed as a recruiter?

I'm not just talking about the quarterback situation (which is more an evaluation thing, I think).

 

[Dale]

So, it's time to waive the white flag and say that June was not as eventful as expected but a lot of good came of it. I believe that Singer's over/under was at 19.5 for 2022 commits and we'll come up short of that, at 16. He also said 3 2023 commits and we'll come up short of that as well, with 2. Those that took the under, get your victory lap in here!

And here I was already planning a pat on the back for tomorrow but was leaving room for Sneed, Moore and Anderson to prove me wrong before the clock strikes midnight.

An interesting betting hypothetical would how many commits fo we have on July 1st? Currently at 11. I’d set the Over/Under at 15.5 (and probably take the Over)

I set this at 15.5 with the feeling it’d likely go over but that 15.5 or 16.5 sounded about right. Someone asked Singer the same hypothetical and had a much more aggressive 18.5

just for the fun of the exercise probably factor in a June lag into July for some of these guys especially late June visitors. Gotta get the commitment videos ready lol

That’s how you middle an inflated line movement folks!

We got the obvious ones in Staes, Agu, JR, and Hinish. Nickel dropped and Raridon came into the fold. Got Craig and not Schrauth. Meanwhile the July lag is proving to be the culprit. Now a July line would be quite tricky to set.

 

[Irish#1]

So, it's time to waive the white flag and say that June was not as eventful as expected but a lot of good came of it. I believe that Singer's over/under was at 19.5 for 2022 commits and we'll come up short of that, at 16. He also said 3 2023 commits and we'll come up short of that as well, with 2. Those that took the under, get your victory lap in here!

IMO, this is an annual occurrence. Prior to the camps optimism is usually higher than it should be. Then there's disappointment when it doesn't turn out like everyone was expecting. I think June turned out to be quite good. July should be decent as well.

 

[arrowryan]

For fans, recruiting is a "what you have you done for me lately?" kind of thing. And the "lately" part seems to be a month. When you see Marcus Freeman and the defensive staff hitting grand slams on a weekly basis, I understand why a lot of people are frustrated with Rees and the offensive staff right now. Sometime I find myself getting frustrated too.

The offense gets their guys, it just isn't as easy for them, compared to the defense, right now. The offense is struggling, but I think by NSD they will have their guys just like every other year.

 

[arrowryan]

As far as June went, it was 100% overhyped and the only true "wow" moment was Vernon. Everyone else was expected or they didn't make a decision. The paid sites overhyped it, but I think the first part of July will be fun.

 

[Luckylucci]

IMO, this is an annual occurrence. Prior to the camps optimism is usually higher than it should be. Then there's disappointment when it doesn't turn out like everyone was expecting. I think June turned out to be quite good. July should be decent as well.

Well, I think we're going to find out that we actually got the commitments in June but they announced in July. Per Loy we still have 4 "ninjas" or silent commits. I'd be surprised if multiple of Sneed, Pope, Moore, and/or Bellamy didn't commit in June.

 

[Dale]

Well, I think we're going to find out that we actually got the commitments in June but they announced in July. Per Loy we still have 4 "ninjas" or silent commits. I'd be surprised if multiple of Sneed, Pope, Moore, and/or Bellamy didn't commit in June.

The term “ninjas” and “silent commits” from the pay sites are the cause of unrealistic expectations and/or unwarranted disappointment

 

[jason_h537]

For fans, recruiting is a "what you have you done for me lately?" kind of thing. And the "lately" part seems to be a month. When you see Marcus Freeman and the defensive staff hitting grand slams on a weekly basis, I understand why a lot of people are frustrated with Rees and the offensive staff right now. Sometime I find myself getting frustrated too.

The offense gets their guys, it just isn't as easy for them, compared to the defense, right now. The offense is struggling, but I think by NSD they will have their guys just like every other year.

I think this is such a ridiculous way of looking at it which is why you see so many tantrums on the forums. What if all those defensive guys decommit? What if ND closes on it's top offensive targets? They can't sign til December and you are judging the class in June? I get criticism but people really need to relax and remember you are investing in the whims of a teenager.

It gets worse when everyone throws around silent commit. The whole idea should be dropped. If you silently committed and then sign with Oregon than you were never committed. I get if the staff tells a kid to wait to announce next week, but the idea that a kid committed months ago and is just waiting on the right time is nonsense. Junior could have went to Texas after his visit. Morrison will likely go to Washington. SIngleton will likely go to PSU. Pope is a complete mystery. Schrauth is split between two schools. And all of these guys were "committed".

 

[BobbyMac]

Well, I think we're going to find out that we actually got the commitments in June but they announced in July. Per Loy we still have 4 "ninjas" or silent commits. I'd be surprised if multiple of Sneed, Pope, Moore, and/or Bellamy didn't commit in June.

This. I'm counting June as 8 weeks and erasing July.

What will be different than expected than when we came into June?

Schrauth? If he goes to WI, Craig covered his number.

In the end it will be we misread the staff and their push more than we misread where the players would land.

 

[Luckylucci]

The term “ninjas” and “silent commits” from the pay sites are the cause of unrealistic expectations and/or unwarranted disappointment

I disagree. Ninja’s are after the fact. Expectations are before. The expectations are largely set by the staff in what they tell the sites. That narrative was, we’re going to try and close on these guys. We know that they tried, they just weren’t able to do it, at least in the fashion they expected. In the end, it may not matter but Loy’s 6 ninjas on January 28th had nothing to do with setting expectations for visitors at the start of the month. The staff wanted to close on the 3 Wiscy OL so they told us so. It’s not Loy’s 6 ninjas that created that narrative. They actually have nothing to do with each other.

In fact, I want the paid sites to do even more of that stuff. I want to know when Staes committed to the staff, not when it goes public that he committed. It gives us stuff to talk about, guess, and bet on. If something changes between those times, then just let us know. That’s the fun of recruiting. That’s the info I pay for. I think the paid sites should do even more of the BTS stuff. As Lax mentioned, Singleton gave a silent, I want to hear about that even if it ultimately changes (FWIW, Singleton’s silent was not part of Loy’s number). Because the info doesn’t change the situation, it just informs the readers.

In the end, its recruiting and its a whacky business. And, that’s the fun of it. Nobody loses a finger for Sneed committing in July versus June. And ND still gets an elite LB prospect.

 

[Dale]

I disagree. Ninja’s are after the fact. Expectations are before. The expectations are largely set by the staff in what they tell the sites. That narrative was, we’re going to try and close on these guys. We know that they tried, they just weren’t able to do it, at least in the fashion they expected. In the end, it may not matter but Loy’s 6 ninjas on January 28th had nothing to do with setting expectations for visitors at the start of the month. The staff wanted to close on the 3 Wiscy OL so they told us so. It’s not Loy’s 6 ninjas that created that narrative. They actually have nothing to do with each other.

In fact, I want the paid sites to do even more of that stuff. I want to know when Staes committed to the staff, not when it goes public that he committed. It gives us stuff to talk about, guess, and bet on. If something changes between those times, then just let us know. That’s the fun of recruiting. That’s the info I pay for. I think the paid sites should do even more of the BTS stuff. As Lax mentioned, Singleton gave a silent, I want to hear about that even if it ultimately changes (FWIW, Singleton’s silent was not part of Loy’s number). Because the info doesn’t change the situation, it just informs the readers.

In the end, its recruiting and its a whacky business. And, that’s the fun of it. Nobody loses a finger for Sneed committing in July versus June. And ND still gets an elite LB prospect.

You said I disagree but didn’t actually disagree with why I said what I said. Putting it back on the staff for board reactions to message board is just, odd to me, that’s way too expansive in view. The problem with ninja and silents and those terms is they are vague intentionally, therefore they bring speculation, expectations and at times disappointment that can’t be properly attached to factual reporting. My problem with those terms is the vagueness and reaction that comes after is a direct result of it. I would much prefer exactly what you said. I know why they are vague, I just disagree with doing so, I’d rather be direct or not at all. I wouldn’t agree that I pay for vagueness that isn’t 100%

Also Rivals vs 247 vs ISD use the term silent for different reasons. You don’t see issue with a term that people covering the same thing literally use differently?

 

[Luckylucci]

You said they cause unrealistic expectations and I said they do not. Ninjas are a result. Expectations are the narrative. Pretty simple.

If Loy sends out an article that says player X is a big target for the staff and they’re going to try and lock him down this weekend. That’s setting an expectation and the narrative. In most cases he was told that by somebody on staff. If Loy says, after visits, they have two players that are silent. That’s informing of a result. Loy isn’t saying he expects them to have 6 silents. He’s telling us how many silents there are, already. Loy ninjas are pretty spot on. And I’m sure we’ll get 6 total commits since he posted that.

 

[Dale]

You said they cause unrealistic expectations and I said they do not. Ninjas are a result. Expectations are the narrative. Pretty simple.

If Loy sends out an article that says player X is a big target for the staff and they’re going to try and lock him down this weekend. That’s setting an expectation and the narrative. In most cases he was told that by somebody on staff. If Loy says, after visits, they have two players that are silent. That’s informing of a result. Loy isn’t saying he expects them to have 6 silents. He’s telling us how many silents there are, already. Loy ninjas are pretty spot on. And I’m sure we’ll get 6 total commits since he posted that.

You think what you just said is simple and is not vague and cause speculation? I’m not talking about you Lucci being confused you have 3 pay site subscriptions and are 100% the exception to the norm. If you think what you just laid out is crystal clear and can’t cause the average reader what I said I guess we’ll have to disagree but I’d say once again, site to site the term silent is used for different reasons, suggesting getting rid of the term doesn’t seem so far off. Saying 6 commits will happen so the 6 ninjas will be valid is BS. Of course 6 commits will happen eventually that doesn’t mean it was accurate reporting at the time

 

[Irish#1]

You said they cause unrealistic expectations and I said they do not. Ninjas are a result. Expectations are the narrative. Pretty simple.

If Loy sends out an article that says player X is a big target for the staff and they’re going to try and lock him down this weekend. That’s setting an expectation and the narrative. In most cases he was told that by somebody on staff. If Loy says, after visits, they have two players that are silent. That’s informing of a result. Loy isn’t saying he expects them to have 6 silents. He’s telling us how many silents there are, already. Loy ninjas are pretty spot on. And I’m sure we’ll get 6 total commits since he posted that.

The guys that cover recruiting don't help. CB's, fortune tellers, prognosticators, ninja's, etc. are there simply to drive readership and create buzz. Therefore they may spice things up just a little. I've also been a firm believer that the staff isn't necessarily going to share everything. They dole out what they want and when they want. Will we get some guys to commit in July that many penciled in for June? Probably. Doesn't mean June was a bust and doesn't mean July was better than expected. NSD is when we determine if things were disappointing.

 

[Luckylucci]

You think what you just said is simple and is not vague and cause speculation? I’m not talking about you Lucci being confused you have 3 pay site subscriptions and are 100% the exception to the norm. If you think what you just laid out is crystal clear and can’t cause the average reader what I said I guess we’ll have to disagree but I’d say once again, site to site the term silent is used for different reasons, suggesting getting rid of the term doesn’t seem so far off. Saying 6 commits will happen so the 6 ninjas will be valid is BS. Of course 6 commits will happen eventually that doesn’t mean it was accurate reporting at the time

It's recruiting and silent commits have been a part of recruiting from before you or I started following it. Respectfully, some of this is yelling at clouds. As long as they exist, we'll continue to talk about them, it is that simple. There will be some that are wrong just like there will be some public commitments that de-commit. Information can prove to be wrong when a teenager changes his mind. It's recruiting and the drama is part of it. It's part of the fun of it as well. You take the good with the bad.

Loy saying on June 28th that we had 6 ninja's had absolutely nothing to do with the expectations for the month of June. I think 99.99% of guests and posters on this board can understand that.

Loy isn't saying we have 6 silents and wait 12 months for them. It's like you argue just for the sake of arguing. I've noted specifically that Loy has hinted at these silents coming out over the next 1 week to 1 month. He's saying we have a big week and month ahead of us and to expect 6 public commitments from the guys that are silent commitments. This is not some random shot in the dark. I have no idea why you are acting like it is. He literally said it'd be a big week and then we got 2 massive '23 commitments. He literally said that one will be moved to next week, let's see who it is. If the information changes, we'll be keeping everyone updated as well.

Let's take a step back and just enjoy the fun of recruiting. Removing all of the speculation also removes the fun. Look at the posters that are mentioning that we haven't had this type of excitement surrounding recruiting in awhile. That's because we are getting into some high stakes recruitments and those get wild. Enjoy the fun. I know the board is.

As I said before, it's the people that create board meltdowns, not the information. It stuff goes incredibly sideways and ND gets zero commitments in the next month, IE will be just fine. Because of the people.

 

[NDdomer2]

He isnt wrong that you could claim 6 silents early in a cycle and just never be wrong and say timing was changed. Loy's job is near weatherman. IT WILL RAIN!!

I think the biggest thing to keep in mind here is that his job is to sell subscriptions and get clicks. Once you keep that at the forefront of everything you read/see from the recruitniks you are likely to understand whats got legs and whats just smoke getting blown up your ass.

 

[Luckylucci]

He isnt wrong that you could claim 6 silents early in a cycle and just never be wrong and say timing was changed. Loy's job is near weatherman. IT WILL RAIN!!

I think the biggest thing to keep in mind here is that his job is to sell subscriptions and get clicks. Once you keep that at the forefront of everything you read/see from the recruitniks you are likely to understand whats got legs and whats just smoke getting blown up your ass.

But that's not what's happening here, at all. He wasn't claiming there to be 6 silents in May. He wasn't claiming there to be 6 silents after the first wekeend of OV's. He's claiming that after all the visits already took place, we'll have 6 commitment over a fairly short time frame. And, he's even updating his subscribers on when something as simple as the week a commitment is coming. He's being pretty darn specific. Or as specific as one can be when trying to keep this stuff under wraps for the prospects. Also, they usually tend to ask after the fact, "when did you commit to ND?". So like in Staes case we can have fun talking about him being a silent for 2 week before his announcement.

And if it ends up being 5 because a young man changed his mind, who cares. That's what makes recruiting fun. Let's talk about who we think the 6 are. And if the number goes down to 5, then let's talk about who 6th was and why.

 

[Dale]

It's recruiting and silent commits have been a part of recruiting from before you or I starting following it. Respectfully, some of this is yelling at clouds. As long as they exist, we'll continue to talk about them, it is that simple. There will be some that are wrong just like there will be some public commitments that de-commit. Information can prove to be wrong when a teenager changes his mind. It's recruiting and the drama is part of it. It's part of the fun of it as well. You take the good with the bad.

Loy saying on June 28th that we had 6 ninja's had absolutely nothing to do with the expectations for the month of June. I think 99.99% of guests and posters on this board can understand that.

Loy isn't saying we have 6 silents and wait 12 months for them. It's like you argue just for the sake of arguing. I've noted specifically that Loy has hinted at these silents coming out over the next 1 week to 1 month. He's saying we have a big week and month ahead of us and to expect 6 public commitments from the guys that are silent commitments. This is not some random shot in the dark. I have no idea why you are acting like it is. He literally said it'd be a big week and then we got 2 massive '23 commitments. He literally said that one will be moved to next week, let's see who it is.

Let's take a step back and just enjoy the fun of recruiting. Removing all of the speculation also removes the fun. Look at the posters that are mentioning that we haven't had this type of excitement surrounding recruiting in awhile. That's because we are getting into some high stakes recruitments and those get wild. Enjoy the fun. I know the board is.

As I said before, it's the people that create board meltdowns, not the information. It stuff goes incredibly sideways and ND gets zero commitments in the next month, IE will be just fine. Because of the people.

I think you misunderstand my point. I could try again but why bother with you since I don’t think you ever try to for some reason.

Did June miss my expectations? No it met mine. Because I read and diagnose for myself, not just state things as “simple” and “obvious”. Am I melting down over silents not happening? No, again I said these usually drag out for announcements. So I am not “yelling at clouds” or “not enjoying the fun”. You say people create board meltdowns, all I said was the term silent going away would alleviate that. You can disagree. That’s what I think. Idk what your problem is but you’re not going to change my opinion on I think it’s a dumb term to use and not always correctly applied. I probably won’t change yours.

 

[Luckylucci]

The term “ninjas” and “silent commits” from the pay sites are the cause of unrealistic expectations and/or unwarranted disappointment

No, I don't misunderstand your point. You point is pretty simple to understand. It just makes zero sense since the silent commitment conversation came after the fact. It's literally impossible for Loy's 6 ninja's to have affected expectations for the month of June, when it happened on June 28th, because it literally had not happened yet. You know that thing with time and all.

 

[Dale]

No, I don't misunderstand your point. You point is pretty simple to understand. It just makes zero sense since the silent commitment conversation came after the fact. It's literally impossible for Loy's 6 ninja's to have affected expectations for the month of June, when it happened on June 28th, because it literally had not happened yet. You know that thing with time and all.

Did I name Loy’s 6 ninjas? Who brought that up?

 

[Luckylucci]

The term “ninjas” and “silent commits” from the pay sites are the cause of unrealistic expectations and/or unwarranted disappointment

I guess I have to do this again, you did.

I made a post about Loy ninja’s and then you bizarrely equated that to expectations from 1 month earlier. If in 1 month from now, none of this has happened, then let’s revisit this conversation. Until then, it makes literally no sense.

 

[Dale]

I guess I have to do this again, you did.

I made a post about Loy ninja’s and then you bizarrely equated that to expectations from 1 month earlier. If in 1 month from now, none of this has happened, then let’s revisit this conversation. Until then, it makes literally no sense.

I wasn’t addressing Loy’s specific ninjas in that moment. I was making a minor comment on the usage of the term in general.

I don’t know why you keep saying I equated to June expectations. I brought up June only to address you’re weird point implying I am not enjoying the fun of recruiting. Which is why bringing up June immediately preceded me saying as such. I’m sure you’ll try to think for me again though and say I’m wrong.

Whatever though, you’re right again

 

[Fbolt]

It's all a guess. Some guesses are more educated and researched than others-and that's why folks pay for the information. As someone mentioned (at least partially), it's all based on the whims of teenaged kids who can't decide what jelly to put on their PB&J sandwich.

 

[Dale]

Loy's 6 ninja's to have affected expectations for the month of June, when it happened on June 28th, because it literally had not happened yet.

I made a post about Loy ninja’s and then you bizarrely equated that to expectations from 1 month earlier.

Can you without commentary or someone else quote where I did this?

 

[Ndaccountant]

ND offensive recruiting at the moment.....

 

[SBirishlawyer]

Would be less upsetting if they hadn’t over confidently cancelled visits and ended recruiting so many of the good plan B’s potentially forcing future plan C and D to get numbers. Receiver was well documented as the big need this cycle and it is lagging bad. Sometimes s@$& happens but early in the cycle they self selected out of many that logically should have been on the board and recently they dipped out on ones they may end up quickly regretting keeping in play. I would say well weird year and maybe lesson learned but this is a known part of recruiting and should not catch professionals off guard