College Football Playoff Expansion?

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I probably should have backed the CCG loss out of those overall records above just to make the picture clearer. But since I didn't do it that way, I'll present it the same here. Just make a mental note those are final records which includes any losses in the conference championships.

OK, this is probably my last one. The 2017 rankings from December 3rd:

1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Alabama (11-1)
5. OSU
6. Wisconsin
7. Auburn (10-3)
8. USC
9. PSU
10. Miami
11. Washington (10-2)
12. UCF
13. Stanford (9-4)
14. ND
15. TCU (10-3)

So we see the same pattern here with two exceptions. Alabama was ranked ahead of the SEC loser Auburn and Washington was ranked ahead of PAC loser Stanford. Auburn had one more loss than Alabama heading into the CCG and Stanford had one more loss than Washington heading into the CCG. Then each team lost in the CCG so they had two additional losses compared to their conference-mates who ended up ahead of them.

So the committee bucked the trend of the CCG loser getting second place in their conference but, again, we're looking at additional losses.

TCU is an interesting case. They picked up a third loss in the CCG and ended up ranked behind three loss teams Auburn (whose third loss also came in a CCG), Stanford (who picked up a 4th loss in their CCG), and Notre Dame, who also had three losses but no CCG.

 

[Dale]

I am likely echoing previous thoughts but once you break the mental barrier of the phrase “ND is not getting a bye”, it’s a net positive for ND.

Call Championship weekend Week 13 and the First Round Week 14:

12-0 ND has a bye in week 13 and then plays a likely 2-3 loss team at home in week 14.

12-0 Bama/OU/OSU etc have to play neutral site against usually a 1-2 loss team and then get a bye in week 14.

 

[NorthDakota]

I am likely echoing previous thoughts but once you break the mental barrier of the phrase “ND is not getting a bye”, it’s a net positive for ND.

Call Championship weekend Week 13 and the First Round Week 14:

12-0 ND has a bye in week 13 and then plays a likely 2-3 loss team at home in week 14.

12-0 Bama/OU/OSU etc have to play neutral site against usually a 1-2 loss team and then get a bye in week 14.

I dont have a strong opinion on whether its a positive or negative. It'll be annoying if ND is a clear cut #1 or #2 but it is what it is.

End of the day, this should also spread out elite recruits. Suddenly going to a "fallen" blue blood like Michigan, Texas, Penn State, etc. are viable playoff hopefuls. Much easier to get to a top 10-12 level than a top 4 level.

Really hope Kelly and whoever takes over when he retires or leaves can leverage this into better recruiting. Should be a regular participant and will get to play against teams that often times don't have the same sort of talent on the field.

 

[Rogue219]

Clemson has UConn scheduled in November. Alabama has New Mexico State.

This idea that ND not having to play a conference championship gives them "rest" seems rather hypocritical of anyone making that argument if you're not asking why the f&ck Clemson and Alabama are scheduling schools like this in November. Power Five schools of their caliber shouldn't even be scheduling games like this in September, but they do that too. Alabama hosts MERCER on September 11th.

Clemson plays South Carolina State on September 11th.

Notre Dame plays Toledo, who I think can handle Mercer and South Carolina State just about any Saturday of the year, and it is on short rest since they open on the road vs FSU the Sunday prior.

As a supporter of the Indepedent Catholic University from the Midwest, I still have a problem with SEC and ACC teams scheduling these kinds of games regardless of whether they open with Miami and Georgia or not. Notre Dame's November schedule consists of Navy, at UVA, Georgia Tech and at Stanford.

ND plays an Independent schedule that, perhaps in my homer mind, is worthy of 12 games being considered a fuller season than that of some of these conference affiliated teams who play 13. What are wins against South Carolina State and UConn really worth?

 

[Irishize]

Clemson has UConn scheduled in November. Alabama has New Mexico State.

This idea that ND not having to play a conference championship gives them "rest" seems rather hypocritical of anyone making that argument if you're not asking why the f&ck Clemson and Alabama are scheduling schools like this in November. Power Five schools of their caliber shouldn't even be scheduling games like this in September, but they do that too. Alabama hosts MERCER on September 11th.

Clemson plays South Carolina State on September 11th.

Notre Dame plays Toledo, who I think can handle Mercer and South Carolina State just about any Saturday of the year, and it is on short rest since they open on the road vs FSU the Sunday prior.

As a supporter of the Indepedent Catholic University from the Midwest, I still have a problem with SEC and ACC teams scheduling these kinds of games regardless of whether they open with Miami and Georgia or not. Notre Dame's November schedule consists of Navy, at UVA, Georgia Tech and at Stanford.

ND plays an Independent schedule that, perhaps in my homer mind, is worthy of 12 games being considered a fuller season than that of some of these conference affiliated teams who play 13. What are wins against South Carolina State and UConn really worth?

Co-signed

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Clemson has UConn scheduled in November. Alabama has New Mexico State.

This idea that ND not having to play a conference championship gives them "rest" seems rather hypocritical of anyone making that argument if you're not asking why the f&ck Clemson and Alabama are scheduling schools like this in November. Power Five schools of their caliber shouldn't even be scheduling games like this in September, but they do that too. Alabama hosts MERCER on September 11th.

Clemson plays South Carolina State on September 11th.

Notre Dame plays Toledo, who I think can handle Mercer and South Carolina State just about any Saturday of the year, and it is on short rest since they open on the road vs FSU the Sunday prior.

As a supporter of the Indepedent Catholic University from the Midwest, I still have a problem with SEC and ACC teams scheduling these kinds of games regardless of whether they open with Miami and Georgia or not. Notre Dame's November schedule consists of Navy, at UVA, Georgia Tech and at Stanford.

ND plays an Independent schedule that, perhaps in my homer mind, is worthy of 12 games being considered a fuller season than that of some of these conference affiliated teams who play 13. What are wins against South Carolina State and UConn really worth?

In the eyes of the committee the games versus SCState, Furman, and the Citadel weigh more than playing New Mexico and not paying a 13th

 

[NDRock]

Clemson has UConn scheduled in November. Alabama has New Mexico State.

This idea that ND not having to play a conference championship gives them "rest" seems rather hypocritical of anyone making that argument if you're not asking why the f&ck Clemson and Alabama are scheduling schools like this in November. Power Five schools of their caliber shouldn't even be scheduling games like this in September, but they do that too. Alabama hosts MERCER on September 11th.

Clemson plays South Carolina State on September 11th.

Notre Dame plays Toledo, who I think can handle Mercer and South Carolina State just about any Saturday of the year, and it is on short rest since they open on the road vs FSU the Sunday prior.

As a supporter of the Indepedent Catholic University from the Midwest, I still have a problem with SEC and ACC teams scheduling these kinds of games regardless of whether they open with Miami and Georgia or not. Notre Dame's November schedule consists of Navy, at UVA, Georgia Tech and at Stanford.

ND plays an Independent schedule that, perhaps in my homer mind, is worthy of 12 games being considered a fuller season than that of some of these conference affiliated teams who play 13. What are wins against South Carolina State and UConn really worth?

I agree with you overall but that's not the reality of college football. I've long thought ND needs to lighten its load on the schools like UVA, Arkansas, and Purdue. Playing a bunch of those schools (Power 5 conference) makes for a tough overall schedule but you get zero credit for beating them. I actually like our 2022 schedule where we have both Ohio State and Clemson on the schedule. We've also placed our cupcakes in good spots (Marshall right after Ohio State and UNLV before Clemson). We just need to occasionally beat these powerhouse programs and the perception of ND will change. Beating a bunch of mid-levels Power 5 schools won't do it.

 

[Rogue219]

In the eyes of the committee the games versus SCState, Furman, and the Citadel weigh more than playing New Mexico and not paying a 13th

We live in a very stupid country.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

We live in a very stupid country.

Yes. Jack said that this new deal would end the whole 13th data point issue for good. CAn you imagine having to have the conversation every year with the selection committee that our wins versus mid tier Power 5 schools and our lowest ranked FCS team is better than Oklahoma or Oregons victory over their FBS teams and their CCG victory?

 

[NDRock]

Yes. Jack said that this new deal would end the whole 13th data point issue for good. CAn you imagine having to have the conversation every year with the selection committee that our wins versus mid tier Power 5 schools and our lowest ranked FCS team is better than Oklahoma or Oregons victory over their FBS teams and their CCG victory?

This is the problem. We have a bunch of victories over mid tier teams when a CCG win usually means a win over a top 10 team. When deciding who deserves to make the playoffs against the best of the best, I would also go with the teams that had proven they were capable of beating top teams. It's been said ad nauseam but ND just needs to win some of these big time games and that perception will be gone.

 

[Irish#1]

Not being in the top 4 should shut up the haters that want us in a conference, but it won't. Haters gonna hate.

 

[IrishRazor82]

IMO just sign us up for the ACC. It was fun last year and honestly, this won't be the last time they'll try to squeeze us for being independent. Independence has its advantages but it's not like being in a major conference doesn't have its own.

 

[BobbyMac]

Stay independent until the 4 superconferences happen then evaluate if you stay with the new semi-pro football association or if you build the P5-Smarty pants league with whatever eggheads can also walk away from the money.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I haven't seen it explicitly stated; what happens if there's an upset? Will the seedings be rearranged? Or will it be like the college bball tourney where the chips fall as they may?

Example: The current assumption is that the #1 seed will play the winner of #8/#9 matchup, but what if the #12 seed upsets the #5 seed?

Hypothetical from last year:

No. 12 Coastal Carolina at No. 5 Notre Dame winner vs. 4. Oklahoma
No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. 3. Ohio State
No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Florida winner vs. 2. Clemson
No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Cincinnati winner vs. 1. Alabama

What if ND loses? Does Bama then play Coastal Carolina? Or do they keep the bracket in place and OU gets them?

 

[Rogue219]

Yes. Jack said that this new deal would end the whole 13th data point issue for good. CAn you imagine having to have the conversation every year with the selection committee that our wins versus mid tier Power 5 schools and our lowest ranked FCS team is better than Oklahoma or Oregons victory over their FBS teams and their CCG victory?

The entire issue with ND is that ever since that January 1994 Cotton Bowl they have not won a major bowl game and have lost in grand fashion each time. It's a small sample size that has affected perception of the program for decades.

The schedules are made years in advance and ND schedules Power Five Teams, G5 at the worst. No FCS schools in September, November or any other time. I have no problem admitting that two things are true at the same time: ND has gotten blown out in big bowls when they get in them and they play a better schedule than a lot of these other jackaloons that have to play a conference championship.

Let's be straight, too, these conference championship games are a joke. When is the last time we saw an upset in one, 2013 MSU beating OSU? I honestly can't remember the last time an underdog won one where it caused chaos. Didn't Clemson score 150 points against UVA a few years ago?

 

[Whiskeyjack]

The entire issue with ND is that ever since that January 1994 Cotton Bowl they have not won a major bowl game and have lost in grand fashion each time. It's a small sample size that has affected perception of the program for decades.

We've beaten LSU in the post-season three times during that period. You can discount those for not happening in "NY6 Bowls" if you want, but: (1) the goal posts can always be moved for anything short of a natty; and (2) those "major bowls" are now pretty meaningless themselves outside of the CFP.

The schedules are made years in advance and ND schedules Power Five Teams, G5 at the worst. No FCS schools in September, November or any other time. I have no problem admitting that two things are true at the same time: ND has gotten blown out in big bowls when they get in them and they play a better schedule than a lot of these other jackaloons that have to play a conference championship.

Let's be straight, too, these conference championship games are a joke. When is the last time we saw an upset in one, 2013 MSU beating OSU? I honestly can't remember the last time an underdog won one where it caused chaos. Didn't Clemson score 150 points against UVA a few years ago?

It's just a different model. The SEC headline match-ups are generally tougher than ours, while their cupcakes are also squishier than ours. Check out Sagarin's SOS rankings for last season. Just looking at the top 20, our schedule (#57) was better than Cincinatti (#91), Buffalo (#76), and BYU (#106), but it was significantly weaker than everyone else's (other than Clemson, thanks ACC).

It's cool that we're one of only three programs who have never played an FCS team before, and I hope they keep that going. But I'm not inclined to beat my chest about it.

 

[Dale]

The entire issue with ND is that ever since that January 1994 Cotton Bowl they have not won a major bowl game and have lost in grand fashion each time. It's a small sample size that has affected perception of the program for decades.

The schedules are made years in advance and ND schedules Power Five Teams, G5 at the worst. No FCS schools in September, November or any other time. I have no problem admitting that two things are true at the same time: ND has gotten blown out in big bowls when they get in them and they play a better schedule than a lot of these other jackaloons that have to play a conference championship.

Let's be straight, too, these conference championship games are a joke. When is the last time we saw an upset in one, 2013 MSU beating OSU? I honestly can't remember the last time an underdog won one where it caused chaos. Didn't Clemson score 150 points against UVA a few years ago?

The 2017 SEC championship game. Georgia beat Auburn after losing to them earlier in the year.

 

[House16]

I haven't seen it explicitly stated; what happens if there's an upset? Will the seedings be rearranged? Or will it be like the college bball tourney where the chips fall as they may?

Example: The current assumption is that the #1 seed will play the winner of #8/#9 matchup, but what if the #12 seed upsets the #5 seed?

Hypothetical from last year:

No. 12 Coastal Carolina at No. 5 Notre Dame winner vs. 4. Oklahoma
No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. 3. Ohio State
No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Florida winner vs. 2. Clemson
No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Cincinnati winner vs. 1. Alabama

What if ND loses? Does Bama then play Coastal Carolina? Or do they keep the bracket in place and OU gets them?

Per the official CFP press release there won't be any reseeding. At least not in the model proposed by the working group.

 

[NorthDakota]

Per the official CFP press release there won't be any reseeding. At least not in the model proposed by the working group.

Not that it would matter to any of us. The mass suicides following a defeat to Coastal Carolina would make Jonestown look like a Romeo and Juliet.

 

[Dale]

In a full normal season the committee will manipulate it to get the Pac 12 in so Coastal would not have been in it. #12 likely becomes Indiana or Oregon. If we assume NDs get the 5 seed with decent frequency, how soon till an almost ND - USC Playoff game? Committee likely bumps them to 11 to avoid it but would be interesting hypothetical given the likelihood that the Pac 12 champ continues to lag behind.

 

[IrishLax]

I haven't seen it explicitly stated; what happens if there's an upset? Will the seedings be rearranged? Or will it be like the college bball tourney where the chips fall as they may?

Example: The current assumption is that the #1 seed will play the winner of #8/#9 matchup, but what if the #12 seed upsets the #5 seed?

Hypothetical from last year:

No. 12 Coastal Carolina at No. 5 Notre Dame winner vs. 4. Oklahoma
No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. 3. Ohio State
No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Florida winner vs. 2. Clemson
No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Cincinnati winner vs. 1. Alabama

What if ND loses? Does Bama then play Coastal Carolina? Or do they keep the bracket in place and OU gets them?

That would've legitimately been amazing. Still would've gotten wrecked by the Bama super team eventually, but it would've felt better with two wins.

Florida-Clemson would've been a legit game, and Georgia/Cinci and Georgia/Bama (with JT Daniels) would've been fun.

 

[Dale]

That would've legitimately been amazing. Still would've gotten wrecked by the Bama super team eventually, but it would've felt better with two wins.

Florida-Clemson would've been a legit game, and Georgia/Cinci and Georgia/Bama (with JT Daniels) would've been fun.

Id say we would have lost to OU

 

[NorthDakota]

Id say we would have lost to OU

I think we'd handle them pretty well honestly.

 

[IrishLax]

Id say we would have lost to OU

Beat them at least 7 out of 10 times. Charmin soft team, would not have been able to stop us running the ball and their offense was not consistent enough to score 30+ on ND.

 

[Dale]

Beat them at least 7 out of 10 times. Charmin soft team, would not have been able to stop us running the ball and their offense was not consistent enough to score 30+ on ND.

I think your describing old OU teams but that OU team post Stevenson/Perkins returning was humming. They bottled up Breece Hall to a decent level. When you talk about “dudes” on D. OU has DUDES in their F7. I think it’d be a great game probably a race to 28, I just don’t know if Book/WRs could have taken advantage of their secondary enough to win that race

 

[NorthDakota]

I think your describing old OU teams but that OU team post Stevenson/Perkins returning was humming. They bottled up Breece Hall to a decent level. When you talk about “dudes” on D. OU has DUDES in their F7. I think it’d be a great game probably a race to 28, I just don’t know if Book/WRs could have taken advantage of their secondary enough to win that race

Eh...I dont think they are cut out to stop a physical team. Iowa State....eh...they don't have the same sort of talent on their team Notre Dame does.

 

[Irishize]

Beat them at least 7 out of 10 times. Charmin soft team, would not have been able to stop us running the ball and their offense was not consistent enough to score 30+ on ND.

If ND’s starting OL was all healthy, I’d agree on 7/10. Tough call with the injuries but I agree with you on the physicality that ND could impose & the lack of physicality on the OU side.

 

[Irish#1]

If ND’s starting OL was all healthy, I’d agree on 7/10. Tough call with the injuries but I agree with you on the physicality that ND could impose & the lack of physicality on the OU side.

Agree, OU plays in Charmin soft conference. The big uglies would wear down their linemen.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Per the official CFP press release there won't be any reseeding. At least not in the model proposed by the working group.

Thanks. Still unsure how I feel about it all. A 12-0 reg season ND team getting a 5 seed may never sit well with me. I agree with Dale that the committee would've tried to get all P5 Champs in, meaning ND (as #5) isn't getting some cushy first round game like Coastal Carolina (regardless of how good they may be). Recent history suggests Bama, Clemson, OSU in the first three spots. Who's 4? Are they more deserving at 4 than a 12-0 ND team? Does it matter? Even if ND gets by the first two rounds, they will always get to the Final Four as the lowest seed (barring any major upsets). It seems like a supreme disadvantage to voluntarily set yourself up for 2 tough games prior to an inevitable semi-final round matchup with the 1 seed all because what, you don't like defending the 13th data point? You want to maintain independence? I have to remind myself that Jack is a smart man. It's just a matter of finding the true motivation behind this agreement. Money? Brand Exposure? Inevitably joining a conference?

Things I like about it: more games, more exciting matchups with a trophy on the line, perhaps an easier path for ND to get in the mix each year (even if it's squeaking in at #12 occasionally), potential for upsets, Bama/OSU/Clemson actually having to play more reputable opponents on their path to a NC.

 

[Rogue219]

The 2017 SEC championship game. Georgia beat Auburn after losing to them earlier in the year.

What was the spread on that game?