2016 Presidential Horse Race

[Polish Leppy 22]

How about we wait to see the actual transcripts of what he said, instead of the cherry picked quotes that could very well be more yellow journalism, before we condemn an old man who has done more for disadvantaged folks than probably the entirety of this board has? If you respect(ed) him as much as you say you do(did), then you owe him at least that much...

Yup. And immigration without assimilation is invasion, no matter what country we're talking about.

 

[pkt77242]

I don't think his comment says that at all.

I think he was saying that people should be comfortable and proud in being "American", and that "respecting other cultures" shouldn't mean having to abandon our own traditions (see: this year's social media attack on the 4th of July, the effective abolition of Columbus Day, etc.). And that it's important to have pride in being an American, as so many generations of immigrants have in the past.

When he says he "doesn't want to celebrate their holidays" that can be taken as 1) anti-cultural appropriation or 2) a pro-assimilation stance. When he says he "doesn't want to root for their soccer teams" that can simply be taken at face value.

But I did not see him say that they (immigrants) want us to change our language, holidays, or root for their teams.

If that is what he meant then it was said rather poorly. It reads as if he is saying that those are the things that immigrants want us to do and he is refusing to do it. ETA: Why else say it? Is he making up a strawman

Here is the quote that I could find

“I don’t want to become you,” Holtz said of immigrants, according to the Daily Beast. “I don’t want to speak your language, I don’t want to celebrate your holidays, I sure as hell don’t want to cheer for your soccer team!”

According to the news outlet, the comments were met with laughter and applause.

The 79-year-old former ESPN analyst also said it’s immigrants’ duty to “become us” and that the large number of immigrants coming into the U.S. constitutes “an invasion,” the report said.

Also are we really allowing that many immigrants right now? I see that we have been in the steady range of 1 million for a while, so it isn't like we are drastically bringing in more now.


ETA: I would love to see a full transcript of his speech so I could make a more informed opinion.

 

[wizards8507]

Also are we really allowing that many immigrants right now? I see that we have been in the steady range of 1 million for a while, so it isn't like we are drastically bringing in more now.

It doesn't matter much what we "allow" when there are loads of people we AREN'T allowing that are coming anyways.

 

[NDgradstudent]

Not being Jewish, I don't know many Jewish jokes, but David Frum has taken to telling one to illustrate the problem with Trump:

A lady walks into a jewelry store wearing a beautiful large diamond. The jeweler remarks what a beauty it is and compliments her. She says thanks and says, “It’s named the Plotkin diamond but it comes with a curse!” The jeweler asks. “What’s the curse?” She replies, “Mr. Plotkin!”

So it is with Trump. Unlike other conservatives, my principal objection to Trump is not about policy, it is about style. He is an oaf (or is at least running as an oaf) and a frivolous candidate.

Now, this would not matter very much if a seat on the veto council (commonly called the Supreme Court) were not up for grabs. It is simply insane that the Court has the power it does, which in practice exceeds that of almost any other country on Earth. Make no mistake: the Court does not "strike down" "unconstitutional" laws. It does the bidding of one or the other of the major political parties; the question is only which one.

Very few voters can name each current member of the Supreme Court. (Test yourself now. Can you?) There is little reason to believe that voters care much about the Supreme Court in making decisions about which candidate to support. Instead, Presidential politics is in large part cyclical. After eight years of one party, the other party usually wins. The fundamentals of this year, as measured by statistical models, favor a generic GOP candidate. Whether or not these models extend to a moronic GOP candidate remain to be seen.

If, as I expect, Trump loses, most of the blame has to lie with the people who voted for him in the primary. They made a foolish decision to flatter someone's vanity, and the price will be considerable. Trump only won a relatively small plurality of the votes, but the field was the largest in GOP primary history, and his range of support was very consistent across states, from MA to AL to NV. And it was not just poor "angry" white factory worker types who voted for him. You don't win a town like Greenwich, CT (where GOP voters own the company that owns the company that owns the factory) by just appealing to those voters.

A sizable portion of the blame also rests with the GOP itself, which has been unresponsive to its voters concerns on immigration. Electoral politics is like running a department store: if the voters do not like what you are selling, change what you are selling. Similarly, if respectable politicians are not allowed to address voters' concerns, then they will turn to non-respectable politicians.

 

[pkt77242]

It doesn't matter much what we "allow" when there are loads of people we AREN'T allowing that are coming anyways.

Our population of illegal immigrants is pretty stable. It has been between 11 million and 12 million (by most estimates) for10 years or so.

 

[wizards8507]

Our population of illegal immigrants is pretty stable. It has been between 11 million and 12 million (by most estimates) for10 years or so.

You don't see how absurd it is that an illegal population of "only" 12 MILLION people is supposed to be a good thing?

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

You don't see how absurd it is that an illegal population of "only" 12 MILLION people is supposed to be a good thing?

Not if the goal is fundamental transformation...

 

[ACamp1900]

You don't see how absurd it is that an illegal population of "only" 12 MILLION people is supposed to be a good thing?

Or that we can somehow track this number accurately...

 

[dublinirish]

You don't see how absurd it is that an illegal population of "only" 12 MILLION people is supposed to be a good thing?

The Congressional Budget Office in 2007 answered this question in the following manner: “Over the past two decades, most efforts to estimate the fiscal impact of immigration in the United States have concluded that, in aggregate and over the long term, tax revenues of all types generated by immigrants—both legal and unauthorized—exceed the cost of the services they use.”

Illegal immigrants benefit the U.S. economy | TheHill

their cheap labor keeps your food prices down.

 

[pkt77242]

Or that we can somehow track this number accurately...

Nope. It is an intermediate stats course. Taking a sample and extrapolating it out isn't difficult. With a good decent size sample, you can be extremely accurate (within a few percent).

 

[pkt77242]

You don't see how absurd it is that an illegal population of "only" 12 MILLION people is supposed to be a good thing?

Never said it was a good thing or a bad thing. I only said it is pretty consistent and that there is no mad rush of illegal immigrants coming every year.

 

[wizards8507]

Illegal immigrants benefit the U.S. economy | TheHill

their cheap labor keeps your food prices down.

Are you kidding me? The entire position of the pro-amnesty left is that these people need to be "brought out of the shadows" and made legal residents. That would prohibit them from earning these low wages and destroys the very reason you say they're good in the first place.

I love it when dumb socialists contradict themselves. Illegal immigrants are good because cheap labor is good, but we need a $15 minimum wage because reasons.

It's the minimum wage that's keeping these people "in the shadows," as the left likes to say. If you made citizens employable at market wages, we wouldn't need to import a dependent, undocumented underclass to work those jobs.

Nope. It is an intermediate stats course. Taking a sample and extrapolating it out isn't difficult. With a good decent size sample, you can be extremely accurate (within a few percent).

Except there isn't a good sample. Illegal immigrants are, by definition, undocumented, and therefore don't self-identify as such for fear of deportation.

Never said it was a good thing or a bad thing. I only said it is pretty consistent and that there is no mad rush of illegal immigrants coming every year.

Those models exclude children born to illegal immigrants, so the numbers skew the economic reality. Two illegal immigrant parents with two citizen children are only counted as a household of two for illegal immigration statistics but the reality is that a child born in California to illegal parents is no different than a child born in Mexico and smuggled over the border in any economic or cultural sense.

 

[dublinirish]

Are you kidding me? The entire position of the pro-amnesty left is that these people need to be "brought out of the shadows" and made legal residents. That would prohibit them from earning these low wages and destroys the very reason you say they're good in the first place.

I love it when dumb socialists contradict themselves. Illegal immigrants are good because cheap labor is good, but we need a $15 minimum wage because reasons.

It's the minimum wage that's keeping these people "in the shadows," as the left likes to say. If you made citizens employable at market wages, we wouldn't need to import a dependent, undocumented underclass to work those jobs.

my point is illegal immigrants are a necessary part of the US economy (same for most large developed countries).

 

[wizards8507]

my point is illegal immigrants are a necessary part of the US economy (same for most large developed countries).

I understand your point, and your point is wrong if you think about next-order economic implications. Illegal immigrants are only a necessary part of the US economy because the wage floor for legal workers is artificially high. Eliminate the minimum wage and illegal immigrants are no longer necessary.

The minimum wage is xenophobic, frankly. It says "Americans deserve $7.25 an hour but let's illegally import foreigners who we can pay far less."

 

[ACamp1900]

Nope. It is an intermediate stats course. Taking a sample and extrapolating it out isn't difficult. With a good decent size sample, you can be extremely accurate (within a few percent).

I don't buy the residual/pew findings one bit... A few of the reasons why are touched on here...

How Many Illegal Immigrants Live in the US?

but if you're fine with it, have at it hoss...

Except there isn't a good sample. Illegal immigrants are, by definition, undocumented, and therefore don't self-identify as such for fear of deportation.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Here is what he said that was truly honest and funnier than hell :

Holtz also said he has to park his van in the back of his church’s parking lot and back it into a spot there because it sports a bumper sticker that embarrasses his wife. He said the sticker is directed at some of his golf buddies, and reads, “Jesus loves you. Everybody else thinks you’re an asshole.”

You all can spout what you have heard about immigrants assimilating. Knock yourself out. But some of the proudest immigrants that have done the best job of assimilating, did not abandon the culture of their homelands. Expecting them to is part of the great white is right problem this country faces.

See, it isn't about exactly what he said, it's that he said anything at all. Think about it for a minute - - part of the real old-timers approach was to leave each to his own. Want to list the customs, parades, and other cultural events that we have maintained over the last two and a half hundred years from other cultures?

For any who don't understand the hypocrisy of his comments, or defending them. Here is a post :


Dan Wolken
✔ ‎@DanWolken

HE COACHED A TEAM CALLED THE FIGHTING IRISH https://twitter.com/woodruffbets/status/755457370663313409 …
1:50 PM - 19 Jul 2016
141 141 Retweets
194 194 likes

and another :


Luke Zimmermann ‎@lukezim


said a guy who made a career for himself coaching a team called the Irish https://twitter.com/woodruffbets/status/755457370663313409 …

1:52 PM - 19 Jul 2016
34 34 Retweets
17 17 likes

For one, I am glad my ancestors didn't give up any more of their culture than they did. I think America is a better place for it.

 

[wizards8507]

Here is what he said that was truly honest and funnier than hell :

You all can spout what you have heard about immigrants assimilating. Knock yourself out. But some of the proudest immigrants that have done the best job of assimilating, did not abandon the culture of their homelands. Expecting them to is part of the great white is right problem this country faces.

See, it isn't about exactly what he said, it's that he said anything at all. Think about it for a minute - - part of the real old-timers approach was to leave each to his own. Want to list the customs, parades, and other cultural events that we have maintained over the last two and a half hundred years from other cultures?

For any who don't understand the hypocrisy of his comments, or defending them. Here is a post :


Dan Wolken
✔ ‎@DanWolken

HE COACHED A TEAM CALLED THE FIGHTING IRISH https://twitter.com/woodruffbets/status/755457370663313409 …
1:50 PM - 19 Jul 2016
141 141 Retweets
194 194 likes

and another :

Luke Zimmermann ‎@lukezim

said a guy who made a career for himself coaching a team called the Irish https://twitter.com/woodruffbets/status/755457370663313409 …

1:52 PM - 19 Jul 2016
34 34 Retweets
17 17 likes

For one, I am glad my ancestors didn't give up any more of their culture than they did. I think America is a better place for it.

Nobody, not Lou Holtz or anybody else, said one word about immigrants abandoning the culture of their homeland. That is NOT what assimilation means. Assimilation is about integrating yourself into the culture of your new country, which is not mutually exclusive from maintaining the roots of your heritage.

 

[pkt77242]

Are you kidding me? The entire position of the pro-amnesty left is that these people need to be "brought out of the shadows" and made legal residents. That would prohibit them from earning these low wages and destroys the very reason you say they're good in the first place.

I love it when dumb socialists contradict themselves. Illegal immigrants are good because cheap labor is good, but we need a $15 minimum wage because reasons.

It's the minimum wage that's keeping these people "in the shadows," as the left likes to say. If you made citizens employable at market wages, we wouldn't need to import a dependent, undocumented underclass to work those jobs.


Except there isn't a good sample. Illegal immigrants are, by definition, undocumented, and therefore don't self-identify as such for fear of deportation.


Those models exclude children born to illegal immigrants, so the numbers skew the economic reality. Two illegal immigrant parents with two citizen children are only counted as a household of two for illegal immigration statistics but the reality is that a child born in California to illegal parents is no different than a child born in Mexico and smuggled over the border in any economic or cultural sense.

How Do We Know How Many Undocumented Immigrants There Are? | FiveThirtyEight

 

[kmoose]

If that is what he meant then it was said rather poorly. It reads as if he is saying that those are the things that immigrants want us to do and he is refusing to do it. ETA: Why else say it? Is he making up a strawman

Here is the quote that I could find

“I don’t want to become you,” Holtz said of immigrants, according to the Daily Beast. “I don’t want to speak your language, I don’t want to celebrate your holidays, I sure as hell don’t want to cheer for your soccer team!”

When taken in context.......

New immigrants to this country, he continued, need to learn and speak English and “become us.”

“I don’t want to become you,” he continued. “I don’t want to speak your language, I don’t want to celebrate your holidays, I sure as hell don’t want to cheer for your soccer team!”

What he appears to be saying is that immigrants have a responsibility to adapt to America, not the other way around. America is not obligated to have schools that teach in whatever your native language is. In other words............ we don't have to become your nationality. You have to become ours.

If that bothers you, then that's your problem, not anyone else's.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Nobody, not Lou Holtz or anybody else, said one word about immigrants abandoning the culture of their homeland. That is NOT what assimilation means. Assimilation is about integrating yourself into the culture of your new country, which is not mutually exclusive from maintaining the roots of your heritage.

I understand what you are saying. Really I do. But that is far from what this kind of public comment does. Gas fumes aren't bad. Neither are matches . . .

Put another way, all Lou did was concentrate on what he didn't want from 'people.' As if it was a real hardship for him to put up with these people as they were acting in their present status. So, anyone who could be described as being in this state would take it as an attack, lecture, and see the desired results as these people abandoning their cultural roots. Conversely, anyone who would not identify as being part of this, or these groups, particularly if they have a lack of imagination or empathy wouldn't see a problem with it.

Lou Holtz's comments are an embarrassment to the university. I used to respect Lou, because I thought he showed great respect for others. His comments demonstrate that he, in fact, does not respect those culturally different than himself. Lou's life has been blessed with good fortune. It's too bad he's lost touch with his immigrant roots.

And this is exactly why. This is a crown jewel of posting. Clear, concise, and to the point.

For any keeping score, Lou's comments are directly in opposition to the teachings of the church, opinions of organizations of American Clerics, the American Bishops, and Pope Francis. Just saying.

 

[wizards8507]

How Do We Know How Many Undocumented Immigrants There Are? | FiveThirtyEight

Lmao did you even read the article, or just the headline? It proves my point.

The even bigger issue is that some groups, including immigrants, are hard to count for various reasons — they’re less likely to respond to surveys, less likely to speak English, more likely to have informal or temporary living arrangements, among others. Counting undocumented immigrants is particularly difficult, because many fear census takers will report them to the government (they won’t).

Pew tries to account for this so-called undercount by adjusting its figures upward. In 2012, Pew estimates the official data undercounts the overall immigrant population by 2 to 3 percent, and the unauthorized population by 5 to 7 percent. The adjustments used to be bigger: In the 1990s, before the Census Bureau took steps to reach more Mexican immigrants, in particular, Pew estimates the official data undercounted the unauthorized population by 10 to 20 percent.

Still, Pew’s numbers have significant margins of error. The 90 percent confidence interval for Pew’s 2012 count of unauthorized immigrants runs from 11.1 million to 12.2 million, meaning Pew can’t say with confidence whether the number has been rising or falling in recent years. The Department of Homeland Security, using a similar methodology to Pew’s, estimates there were 11.4 million unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. in 2012, solidly within Pew’s range.

Translation: It's hard to find illegal immigrants to survey and when you actually survey them, they lie. Pew estimates that the percentage of underreporting is 5 to 7 percent, a figure Pew arrived at by pulling it out of their ass.

 

[wizards8507]

I understand what you are saying. Really I do. But that is far from what this kind of public comment does. Gas fumes aren't bad. Neither are matches . . .

Put another way, all Lou did was concentrate on what he didn't want from 'people.' As if it was a real hardship for him to put up with these people as they were acting in their present status. So, anyone who could be described as being in this state would take it as an attack, lecture, and see the desired results as these people abandoning their cultural roots. Conversely, anyone who would not identify as being part of this, or these groups, particularly if they have a lack of imagination or empathy wouldn't see a problem with it.

And this is exactly why. This is a crown jewel of posting. Clear, concise, and to the point.

No, that's not "all Lou did." We have no idea what "all Lou did" because we don't have the entire speech. If you have something to object to with the information we have now, it's the selective reporting of two sentences of a however-many-minutes-long speech.

For any keeping score, Lou's comments are directly in opposition to the teachings of the church, opinions of organizations of American Clerics, the American Bishops, and Pope Francis. Just saying.

He didn't say it from the freaking pulpit, he said it at a political event. We're a nation of men and a nation of laws, and our politics should reflect that. It's not intellectually inconsistent for me to support my local parish having a Spanish Mass at noon on Sundays but not support the State of Connecticut giving welfare benefits to illegal immigrants.

 

[IrishLion]

Shared because it made me giggle, though I realize the comments need a more broad discussion, and though this has already been discussed a page back:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">said a guy who made a career for himself coaching a team called the Irish <a href="https://t.co/kzOVWEPtrl">https://t.co/kzOVWEPtrl</a></p>— Luke Zimmermann (@lukezim) <a href="https://twitter.com/lukezim/status/755460310006427648">July 19, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[ND NYC]

not a Trump supporter, but must say I thought Donald Trump Jr did a very good job last night with his speech.


re: Lou's comments, bad form, uncalled for, and not a "good look" for him (and indirectly on ND as he is/has been one of the most "high profile ambassadors" for ND since he left).

 

[kmoose]

I understand what you are saying. Really I do. But that is far from what this kind of public comment does. Gas fumes aren't bad. Neither are matches . . .

Put another way, all Lou did was concentrate on what he didn't want from 'people.' As if it was a real hardship for him to put up with these people as they were acting in their present status. So, anyone who could be described as being in this state would take it as an attack, lecture, and see the desired results as these people abandoning their cultural roots. Conversely, anyone who would not identify as being part of this, or these groups, particularly if they have a lack of imagination or empathy wouldn't see a problem with it.



And this is exactly why. This is a crown jewel of posting. Clear, concise, and to the point.

For any keeping score, Lou's comments are directly in opposition to the teachings of the church, opinions of organizations of American Clerics, the American Bishops, and Pope Francis. Just saying.

Go home, Bog. You're drunk!

Until the whole transcript is available, none of us know exactly what Lou's mindset or intent was. This is nothing more than people who want to be offended by something, anything, using this as an excuse to be offended.

 

[Ndaccountant]

 

[pkt77242]

Lmao did you even read the article, or just the headline? It proves my point.


Translation: It's hard to find illegal immigrants to survey and when you actually survey them, they lie. Pew estimates that the percentage of underreporting is 5 to 7 percent, a figure Pew arrived at by pulling it out of their ass.

Lol. Nothing about them lying. Just that they are more transient and more likely to live in non-normal living conditions. Yes it is hard to poll then, no it isn't impossible. Did you read the whole article? They actually poll all immigrants and subtract out the known legal immigrants (which we know) to come up with a base figure and then to to add 5-7% to it. The funny part is they could also be completely overshooting the number as well but you aren't going to admit to that.

 

[wizards8507]

Lol. Nothing about them lying. Just that they are more transient and more likely to live in non-normal living conditions.

I quote: Counting undocumented immigrants is particularly difficult, because many fear census takers will report them to the government.

What do you think that means other than "illegal immigrants don't admit they're illegal immigrants"? That's called lying.

Yes it is hard to poll then, no it isn't impossible. Did you read the whole article? They actually poll all immigrants and subtract out the known legal immigrants (which we know) to come up with a base figure and then to to add 5-7% to it.

1. The 5 to 7% number is horse shit and completely made up.

2. They used to add 10% to 20%, meaning the entire reason for the perceived stagnation is that Pew changed their methodology and they're not adjusting their data up as much as they used to.

The funny part is they could also be completely overshooting the number as well but you aren't going to admit to that.

Of course I'll admit that. I have never claimed that I know with any certainty that the number is greater than 12 million. What I've claimed is that we have absolutely no fucking idea what the number is because we're trying Pew's 5% to 7% figure, which could be 1% or could be 58%.

 

[pkt77242]

I quote: Counting undocumented immigrants is particularly difficult, because many fear census takers will report them to the government.

What do you think that means other than "illegal immigrants don't admit they're illegal immigrants"? That's called lying.


1. The 5 to 7% number is horse shit and completely made up.

2. They used to add 10% to 20%, meaning the entire reason for the perceived stagnation is that Pew changed their methodology and they're not adjusting their data up as much as they used to.


Of course I'll admit that. I have never claimed that I know with any certainty that the number is greater than 12 million. What I've claimed is that we have absolutely no fucking idea what the number is because we're trying Pew's 5% to 7% figure, which could be 1% or could be 58%.

The article states why they changed the methodology. What a shocker. When the people doing the number gathering do a better job of getting more accurate numbers from Hispanic areas, there is less adjustment needed.

Also the numbers are relatively accurate (not exactly accurate), so the 90% confidence interval of 11.1 to 12.2 million is rather accurate

Finally come up with a more accurate way.

 

[irishfan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The media is spending more time doing a forensic analysis of Melania's speech than the FBI spent on Hillary's emails.</p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/755788382618390529">July 20, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trump camp identifies Melania Trump's speechwriter. <a href="https://t.co/X7fxGyJV5E">https://t.co/X7fxGyJV5E</a></p>— CNN (@CNN) <a href="https://twitter.com/CNN/status/755801931696734209">July 20, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

They're gonna spin this into a positive somehow....