2016 Presidential Horse Race

[BleedBlueGold]

My whole point was that the system is "rigged" like he keeps claiming. You can say the system is stupid (I would agree) and confusing (yup), but it isn't rigged - he's losing by every metric, fair and square. As for the media, well, Trump flipped the game. He calls in to every talk show, tweets incessantly, and plays the media like a fiddle. Sanders has tried a different tact, and in some ways it has really worked (see: his rallies) and in other ways it hasn't (see: the media is obsessed with Trump, and now Trump vs. Clinton). Trump didn't complain (alright I'm lying...dude bitches about every loss and perceived slight from the media more than an unhappy pregnant wife), he went out and changed the game.

I agree for the most part. You can debate whether the system is "rigged" or not though because it sort of depends on your definition. I'm of the thinking that it's not rigged, but that it's purposely set up in a manor that's confusing and suppressive as shit. The perception of this "rigged system" is legit though. Whether it's real or not doesn't matter. What people have seen from the DNC elites, Debbie Wasserman Shultz, and the numerous issues in various states during primary voting and caucuses gives people the feeling that there's a thumb on the scale. Throw in the massive propaganda machine that is the mainstream media and people really can start to lose hope.

Big picture, though. That's not even the real concern. Because even without this idea that there was a thumb on the scale, all things equal, Bernie would still probably lose to Hillary. And that's ok. What everyone seems to be missing though, is that Bernie's fight is against literally everything that Hillary represents. It's why he's fighting all the way into the convention. This neo liberal, corporate democratic bullshit is screwing over a lot of people and Bernie wants Hillary and the entire Dem party to come back to being a party for the people and not their donors. The more Hillary and Co. condescendingly push back against that notion, the more it's going to rile up the base. The Dem. convention could be a shit show.

Not sure how you expect people to take that, but I’m not spinning anything. It sounds pretty clear there that you are against Trump because he is a maniac, BUT people despise Hillary, as if they don't despise Trump too. The only way I can take that is that you think people don’t despise Trump, otherwise you would have said both are despised.

I'm not going to argue semantics with you. I hate both Hillary and Trump. Many, many people feel the same.

 

[kjones]

25% of blacks in a group of 1000 people were asked a series of question 9 months ago.

You, incorrectly, turned around and said:

You guys also realize Trump has about 25% of the black vote currently​

1 - 1000 people is a really small sample size to suggest 'of blacks' or implied 'all blacks'

2 - 9 months ago in a political campaign is no different than 9 years ago if you think about it.

I already admitted it was an old poll from September. I just happened to be the first link when I googled the issue. My bad. What more do you want from me?

On the other hand, 1000 is the average sample size for almost all US polling and if done correctly (randomly selected) is totally valid.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

First, if it's HRC v. Trump we will have an election of who you dislike less. That's terrible on so many levels.

This isn't new. American politics has become increasingly polarized for decades; driven more by a fear of/ desire to punish the other party than support for certain principles.

Minorities and college-educated women are projected to cast ~49% of the total votes in this year's general election. Trump polls terribly among both groups. So barring some black swan event that drastically shakes up the current trends, Trump's path to the White House looks like a mathematical impossibility. The demographics he's strong in simply aren't numerous enough to carry him to victory.

Third, and I think this is the key to this election is the unexpected. Right now all of the back of the envelop projects are based on trends. Working class voters do this, blacks do that..etc.

If there is some sort of bombshell on either one of these candidates between now and the election all votes are off.

Agreed. If, say, Hillary is indicted, or we suffer another major terrorist attack on American soil, or Bernie gets in touch with his inner Jacobin and decides to run 3rd party, then all bets are off.

Pretty sure Whiskeyjack wrote this.

Donald Trump is going to win: This is why Hillary Clinton can’t defeat what Trump represents - Salon.com

Not bad for a Marxist analysis of this election cycle. But in typically Marxist fashion, he focuses on class struggle to the complete exclusion of cultural variables, which leads him to the wrong conclusion (that Hillary can't win).

 

[dales5050]

I already admitted it was an old poll from September. I just happened to be the first link when I googled the issue. My bad. What more do you want from me?

On the other hand, 1000 is the average sample size for almost all US polling and if done correctly (randomly selected) is totally valid.

Was mostly talking about how this happens and not really you. See my other comment on the volume of articles online and how challenging that is.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

I already admitted it was an old poll from September. I just happened to be the first link when I googled the issue. My bad. What more do you want from me?

On the other hand, 1000 is the average sample size for almost all US polling and if done correctly (randomly selected) is totally valid.

This is correct. Most are anywhere from 750 - 1500. If you have a true random sample, you have a solid poll (within the stated margin of error). That said, the 25% number is never going to play out. He'll probably get in the single digits, as the current polls are saying.

 

[Legacy]

African Americans are changing their views on gun control after the Charleston massacre

“If anyone should have the right or need to carry a gun, it should be the African-American community,” said Philip Smith, who earlier this year founded the National African American Gun Association, which he says now has a couple of hundred members.

Smith says he expects that the massacre in Charleston last month will draw more African Americans to the idea that guns are necessary for protection. “Just think if one of those folks had a gun, or two or three,” he said.

The idea that guns provide protection appears to be quickly gaining currency among American blacks. In December, 54 percent of blacks polled by Pew said they believed guns were more likely to protect people than to put their safety at risk. That figure was up from 29 percent two years earlier. For whites, 62 percent said guns protect people, up from 54 percent in 2012.

 

[gkIrish]

L.O.L.

If I Could Be Just Completely Honest For A Second, I Believe Exactly What You Believe - The Onion - America's Finest News Source

 

[connor_in]

 

[connor_in]

Apparently this is a thing now:

https://twitter.com/hashtag/Slogans4Hillary?src=hash

#Slogans4Hillary

Hillary Clinton’s new campaign slogan is "Stronger Together." Which replaces her old slogan, "Goddammit, It’s My Turn!" - Conan O'Brien, May 23, 2016

 

[wizards8507]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">ATTENTION <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BLACKLIVESMATTER?src=hash">#BLACKLIVESMATTER</a> <a href="https://t.co/JLBaFbvmxu">pic.twitter.com/JLBaFbvmxu</a></p>— Dinesh D'Souza (@DineshDSouza) <a href="https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/735184476049838080">May 24, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[GATTACA!]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">ATTENTION <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BLACKLIVESMATTER?src=hash">#BLACKLIVESMATTER</a> <a href="https://t.co/JLBaFbvmxu">pic.twitter.com/JLBaFbvmxu</a></p>— Dinesh D'Souza (@DineshDSouza) <a href="https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/735184476049838080">May 24, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Legacy]

Kenneth Starr, Who Tried to Bury Bill Clinton, Now Only Praises Him

An unlikely voice recently bemoaned the decline of civility in presidential politics, warned that “deep anger” was fueling an “almost radical populism” and sang the praises of former President Bill Clinton — particularly his “redemptive” years of philanthropic work since leaving the White House.

The voice was that of Kenneth W. Starr, the former Whitewater independent counsel, whose Javert-like pursuit of Mr. Clinton in the 1990s helped bring a new intensity to partisan warfare and led to the impeachment of a president for only the second time in the nation’s history.

“There are certain tragic dimensions which we all lament,” Mr. Starr said in a panel discussion on the presidency at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia.

“That having been said, the idea of this redemptive process afterwards, we have certainly seen that powerfully” in Mr. Clinton’s postpresidency, he continued, adding, “President Carter set a very high standard, which President Clinton clearly continues to follow.”

He called Mr. Clinton “the most gifted politician of the baby boomer generation.”

“His genuine empathy for human beings is absolutely clear,” Mr. Starr said. “It is powerful, it is palpable, and the folks of Arkansas really understood that about him — that he genuinely cared. The ‘I feel your pain’ is absolutely genuine.”

In the panel discussion last week, he reached back to an earlier presidency — that of Lyndon B. Johnson. Saying today’s divisiveness “deeply concerns me,” he recalled Johnson’s appealing for comity before a joint session of Congress.

“I remember this so vividly — he said, ‘Come, let us reason together.’ Can we talk with one another?” Mr. Starr said. “The utter decline and erosion of civility and discourse has, I think, very troubling implications.”

He quoted E. Gordon Gee, the president of West Virginia University, saying, “The world has become a shouting match.”

“There are always places for shouts and strong feelings, but the genius of American democracy and of presidential leadership,” Mr. Starr continued, “is to bring unity out of our diversity. E pluribus unum — out of many, one. And we don’t seem to hear too many voices saying, ‘Let us find common ground.’”

 

[kmoose]

Trump protesters smash door, break through barriers - CNNPolitics.com

I wish you Trump supporters would knock it off, already, with the violence!!!!

 

[BGIF]

Kenneth Starr, Who Tried to Bury Bill Clinton, Now Only Praises Him

Probably because Ken Starr appears to be in need of a job.

Ken Starr reportedly fired as Baylor president; university declines comment | Reuters

 

[BGIF]

Trump Wins WA with 76%

Trump Wins WA with 76%

70% reported

candidate votes% bound delegates unbound delegates
Trump 371,008 76.2% 40  0
Cruz   49,256 10.1% 0 0
Kasich 47,952 9.9% 0 0

CNN says this puts Trump less than 10 votes from the magic number.


NJ Jun 7 will put him over the top.

CA Jun 7 will make Unbound Delegates (110) flipping from Trump moot.

 

[BGIF]

Clinton Refuses To Debate Sanders In California

Clinton Refuses To Debate Sanders In California

I just believe that this is the most important job in the world, it’s the toughest job in the world. You should be willing to campaign for every vote. You should be willing to debate anytime, anywhere.

Hillary Clinton 2008


Apparently her 2008 message, "... willing to debate anytime, anywhere" only applies when she's losing in a campaign.




<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Benyh_m5Vc8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[dales5050]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Pw-MnRyIoQY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

It's hard not to watch videos like this and not understand why people would vote for Trump. Not because they like Trump but they hate the people that act like this and electing Trump is the best way to say FU to them.

 

[EddytoNow]

70% reported

candidate votes% bound delegates unbound delegates
Trump 371,008 76.2% 40  0
Cruz   49,256 10.1% 0 0
Kasich 47,952 9.9% 0 0

CNN says this puts Trump less than 10 votes from the magic number.


NJ Jun 7 will put him over the top.

CA Jun 7 will make Unbound Delegates (110) flipping from Trump moot.

So 24% of Washington Republicans are still saying "No" to a Trump presidency? Is that representative of where the Republicans stand at this point?

 

[GoIrish41]

So 24% of Washington Republicans are still saying "No" to a Trump presidency? Is that representative of where the Republicans stand at this point?

About the same as last primaries and this is without an opponent. People are showing up specifically to vote against him. That can't be encouraging for the Trump camp.

 

[wizards8507]

So 24% of Washington Republicans are still saying "No" to a Trump presidency? Is that representative of where the Republicans stand at this point?

Hard to say. It's a no-contest primary so you can't really measure the attitudes of the people who knew the vote was pointless and just stayed home. I think the last national poll had 85% of Republicans supporting Trump in a head to head with Hillary.

 

[wizards8507]

Bernie Sanders & Donald Trump Could Cause Four-Way Race | National Review

 

[irishfan]

Trump protesters smash door, break through barriers - CNNPolitics.com

Between this and the Milo post up above....Trump would have no chance against Hillary without the idiot protesters boosting him...

 

[wizards8507]

Trump protesters smash door, break through barriers - CNNPolitics.com

Between this and the Milo post up above....Trump would have no chance against Hillary without the idiot protesters boosting him...

The idiot protesters are not outliers, they're representative of the American left and have been for years. What do you think Barack Obama was doing as a "community organizer"? This is what they do. They brainwash and intimidate.

 

[connor_in]

Trump protesters smash door, break through barriers - CNNPolitics.com

Between this and the Milo post up above....Trump would have no chance against Hillary without the idiot protesters boosting him...

Just for clarification, are you saying Trump wouldn't be doing so well if the people protesting against him weren't acting like idiots?

 

[irishfan]

Just for clarification, are you saying Trump wouldn't be doing so well if the people protesting against him weren't acting like idiots?

I think so ya. I think things like this slowly win over some of the #NeverTrump Republicans, and also some independents on the fence. His numbers have gone up every time there has been a notable protest that turned ugly.

Trump is very good at pushing "Us vs. Them" and this is an ugly "them" to be associated with.

 

[Rizzophil]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...ory.html?postshare=6341464186370377&tid=ss_tw

#neverhillary

 

[dales5050]

Between this and the Milo post up above....Trump would have no chance against Hillary without the idiot protesters boosting him...

That's the thing.

I think many people are underestimating the frustration to disgust many 'average' people have with children on campus, black lives matters, 3rd generation feminists and SJWs.

People are fed up with being called a racist, sexist and misogynist simply because they don't agree with someone else. They are tired of being told to feel guilty and shut up.

People are tired of being told by the 'media' and progressive elite just how horrible they are for not doing or feeling how they are told.

This goes all they way down to people that you kinda like but are sick of the hypocrisy. For example, I am a huge fan of Leo the actor but think it's Bullshit he rails on global warming at events in between using a private jet to get there. I don't care if he does carbon offsets. It's still hypocrisy.

I think almost all of the 'support' that Trump gets is actually people just looking for an outlet to say 'FU' to all of these other people and things.

 

[wizards8507]

That's the thing.

I think many people are underestimating the frustration to disgust many 'average' people have with children on campus, black lives matters, 3rd generation feminists and SJWs.

People are fed up with being called a racist, sexist and misogynist simply because they don't agree with someone else. They are tired of being told to feel guilty and shut up.

People are tired of being told by the 'media' and progressive elite just how horrible they are for not doing or feeling how they are told.

This goes all they way down to people that you kinda like but are sick of the hypocrisy. For example, I am a huge fan of Leo the actor but think it's Bullshit he rails on global warming at events in between using a private jet to get there. I don't care if he does carbon offsets. It's still hypocrisy.

I think almost all of the 'support' that Trump gets is actually people just looking for an outlet to say 'FU' to all of these other people and things.

The legitimately brilliant thing about Trump's campaign is that he's found a way to get around the media firewall and reach people on this kind of thing. "Conservatives" (or people just sick of the BS) are led to believe that they're in a small minority because the media and pop culture propagate the nonsense and screen out dissenting voices. Trump has demolished that illusion by using the media like a puppet.

 

[connor_in]

I think so ya. I think things like this slowly win over some of the #NeverTrump Republicans, and also some independents on the fence. His numbers have gone up every time there has been a notable protest that turned ugly.

Trump is very good at pushing "Us vs. Them" and this is an ugly "them" to be associated with.

Thanks for the clarification. I agree that it helps him in those groups the same way that he has used the "media attacks" on him to turn in his favor. There is a TON of anti-establishment feeling out there right now, and if Trump shows those that dislike both nominees that the far left D's are crazy and will do whatever they can to keep him down just like he has done with the MSM, then as long as he can keep as much of the far right from doing the same, I think he will get the majority of the I's to vote for him over HRC.

 

[NDinL.A.]

Trump protesters smash door, break through barriers - CNNPolitics.com

I wish you Trump supporters would knock it off, already, with the violence!!!!

It’s beyond stupid what these idiots are doing. I hate Trump more than anyone, but this is just fucking moronic and not helpful at all. Every single one of the violent ones should do jail time.

I will also say that I was at a peaceful Trump protest. As the Trumpians were leaving the rally, they were instigating the protestors like crazy. They were basically begging us to be violent. Some of the rudest, most vile people I’ve ever come across. We didn’t take the bait, but weren’t as young as the protestors you saw in Chicago, LA, and New Mexico.

Like I said even before the Chicago protests – it’s only going to get worse. Donald is doubling down, and there are some angry, angry people out there who are willing to take it waaaaaaayyyy too far. What a fucking mess.