2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race


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[URL="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/23/women-female-voters-us-election-hillary-clinton"]'I'm not with her': why women are weary of Hillary Clinton[/URL] (theguardian)

If you google any position at this point in the election you're going to find multiple articles telling you how right you are and how wrong the other person is.

I read your article. I see what you mean.

Just found it remarkable that the conservative National Review wrote this, but then they wrote this one, too, two weeks earlier.

Hillary’s Woman Problem: Most Women Don’t Like Her

From their Trump one:
Trump recently tweeted, “Nobody has more respect for women than Donald Trump!” This is hard to believe. More than 3 million people have seen the anti-Trump ad in which women repeat real quotes about women from Donald Trump, such as “bimbo” and “fat pig.” Trump described Megyn Kelly as having “blood coming out of her wherever” and mocked Carly Fiorina’s appearance by saying, “Look at that face.” He tweeted a picture of Melania Trump next to Heidi Cruz, as if potential first ladies are contestants in a Miss Universe pageant. And when asked whether women should be punished in the event that abortion became illegal, he suggested that they should be.
 
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irishfan

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Haven't most polls shown that Hillary has a bigger problem with males than Trump has with females?
 

wizards8507

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The "Trump hates women" argument doesn't stick because loads of men AGREE that Rosie O'Donnell is a pig and that Carly Fiorina has a weird face. The only thing that's new is someone saying those things in public.

Sent from my Galaxy Note4 using Tapatalk.
 

Whiskeyjack

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Haven't most polls shown that Hillary has a bigger problem with males than Trump has with females?

Yes. Trump polls terribly among minorities and college-educated white women, while his numbers are strong among working-class whites of both sexes. These trends have been gaining momentum for decades, though Trump has likely accelerated them.

The problem for Trump (and the GOP generally) is that the demographics hostile to him are growing rapidly, while white working class voters are declining. So unless Trump is able to mobilize a historic turn-out from his supporters, his strength with that demographic won't be nearly enough to offset Hillary's advantage.
 

NDinL.A.

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Gattica:

1. Where did I say I "support Hillary"??? I have clearly stated from the jump that even as a conservative, I am 1000% anti-Trump, not pro-Hillary. Hell, I even stated that she has a whole slew of her issues on the very post you semi-quoted. If I'm pro-Hillary, then you have been a Trump-sheep from the beginning and believe in everything that he believes in and the manner in which he goes about it. See how that works?

2. Every article that you quoted was massive pro-Republican or skewed against Hillary. We can do this all day, with me going to cnn.com or the Post, and we can use both their own words and the one-sided reporting to make our own points. Truth is, both candidates are deeply flawed. I have to believe that Trump would be the worst option for our country.

3. On flip-flopping, I was speaking of the variety in which Trump does it not only over a period of years (as does Hillary), but in a matter of days, sometimes in a matter of hours and even sometimes in a matter of friggin' minutes. Take, for example, yesterday's gem from Trump, in which he blasted Clinton for "lying" about Trump wanting to abolish gun-free school zones. As soon as he called her out on that, the moron said this:

“I don’t want to have guns in classrooms, although in some cases, teachers should have guns in classrooms, frankly,” Trump said, offering up two distinct views in an interview days after he was endorsed by the most powerful gun group, the National Rifle Association. “Because teachers, you know — things that are going on in our schools are unbelievable.”

“I’m not advocating guns in classrooms,” he continued. “But remember, in some cases … trained teachers should be able to have guns in classrooms.”

I mean, wtf is wrong with this dude??? "Hillary is a liar for saying I want guns in the classroom! I don't want them in the classroom, but I actually do want guns in the classroom."

Abortion, tax plan, worker visas, how to decrease the debt, minimum wage, torture, how to defeat ISIS, etc etc etc...he flips on things within days. He has no core, no back bone. You look on his site, and his plans are mostly fluff, merely "suggestions", and which he has already changed what he has in writing. At least Hillary has extremely detailed plans - whether you agree with them or not, they are there for all to see. Trump is a maniac without a plan, but people don't care and like him because they are mad at Washington??? Stupid and dangerous.

I mean has any of this mattered to Hillary supporters? No most of the democratic party have cowardly fallen into line with her.

Actually, that is patently false. Have you even been following the primaries? Not even going to waste my time with that.

Who would you rather have as POTUS a person that gets along with one of the world's most powerful leaders, or someone that has blatant disdain for them? Putin is a crazy person. I would rather have someone in charge that he gets along with rather than someone we know he absolutely hates.

Hell no, I don't want our leaders to be buddy-buddy with communist psychos. Shows what kind of character our possible leader has. Getting into it with our allies but respecting psychos??? I'll take my leaders like Reagan, who basically told Gorbechev (sp) to fuck off. I've said it from the beginning, Trump is out for Trump, and if Russia has something to help Trump and his businesses, I fully believe that he will make nice with Putin while Putin invades another country around Russia.

Trump's position with communists and the entire world is just another reason why I could never back him, and why conservative foreign policy experts think he would be a disaster. Isolationism in today's world, with terrorism rampant and a global economy needing the USA to be strong? Disastrous. And his economic plan, whatever it is today, is also being panned by conservative economists as well.

I haven't even started on his joke of an idea that Mexico would pay for a wall, or numerous other reasons he's bad for America. But my wife wants to watch the rest of a show we started yesterday, so I'm out. I just feel the dude is a sick human being, an egomaniac to the millionth degree, and would be a disaster for this country in a million ways. Mark Cuban and many other conservatives agree. This isn't pro-Hillary, but it most definitely anti-trumph.
 

drayer54

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Gattica:

1. Where did I say I "support Hillary"??? I have clearly stated from the jump that even as a conservative, I am 1000% anti-Trump, not pro-Hillary. Hell, I even stated that she has a whole slew of her issues on the very post you semi-quoted. If I'm pro-Hillary, then you have been a Trump-sheep from the beginning and believe in everything that he believes in and the manner in which he goes about it. See how that works?

Trump flip flops because he doesn't believe in anything and it's just like an idiot rambling on the porch. Trump will lead however it would appear to be prudent that particular day.

Hillary flip flops because she doesn't believe in anything and just wants to get elected, so she aligns herself appropriately. Ultimately she will lead in whatever way her sponsors and Clinton Foundation donors have requested.

The voters have spoken. You choose which one you want.
 

GATTACA!

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1. Where did I say I "support Hillary"??? I have clearly stated from the jump that even as a conservative, I am 1000% anti-Trump, not pro-Hillary. Hell, I even stated that she has a whole slew of her issues on the very post you semi-quoted. If I'm pro-Hillary, then you have been a Trump-sheep from the beginning and believe in everything that he believes in and the manner in which he goes about it. See how that works?

I never said you supported her, but after I responded to your original post saying that most of your points could also be applied to Hillary you said..

Hillary has her own demons, no doubt, and you haven't seen me defending her on those. But the stuff I wrote, besides the lying and flip-flopping, most of it belongs exclusively to Donald.

So that what my long response was to. Just showing how actually most of the stuff belongs to both of them.

2. Every article that you quoted was massive pro-Republican or skewed against Hillary. We can do this all day, with me going to cnn.com or the Post, and we can use both their own words and the one-sided reporting to make our own points. Truth is, both candidates are deeply flawed. I have to believe that Trump would be the worst option for our country.

I understand that's why fro the most part I cited nothing but quotes directly from Hillery or other officials. Both of those videos are 100% straight from her mouth.

3. On flip-flopping, I was speaking of the variety in which Trump does it not only over a period of years (as does Hillary), but in a matter of days, sometimes in a matter of hours and even sometimes in a matter of friggin' minutes. Take, for example, yesterday's gem from Trump, in which he blasted Clinton for "lying" about Trump wanting to abolish gun-free school zones. As soon as he called her out on that, the moron said this:



I mean, wtf is wrong with this dude??? "Hillary is a liar for saying I want guns in the classroom! I don't want them in the classroom, but I actually do want guns in the classroom."

Abortion, tax plan, worker visas, how to decrease the debt, minimum wage, torture, how to defeat ISIS, etc etc etc...he flips on things within days. He has no core, no back bone. You look on his site, and his plans are mostly fluff, merely "suggestions", and which he has already changed what he has in writing. At least Hillary has extremely detailed plans - whether you agree with them or not, they are there for all to see. Trump is a maniac without a plan, but people don't care and like him because they are mad at Washington??? Stupid and dangerous.

Again I was never defending Trump I was simply pointing out how Hillary is just as guilty of most of the things you mentioned.

Actually, that is patently false. Have you even been following the primaries? Not even going to waste my time with that.

I was speaking more about the democratic party and the establishment. I should have been more clear with that one.

In any case the republican establishment tried everything they could to stop Trump, hell they got behind Cruz for a little while. (gag)

Meanwhile Hillary has been the presumptive nominee since Obama won again in 2012. If either party was smart and just ran a sane candidate with some moral footing and a regular haircut they would be running away with this election. Thing is only the republicans actually tried, dems have been pushing Hillary for years. They have gone so far as to basically rig the entire primary to make sure she beats out Bernie.

Hell no, I don't want our leaders to be buddy-buddy with communist psychos. Shows what kind of character our possible leader has. Getting into it with our allies but respecting psychos??? I'll take my leaders like Reagan, who basically told Gorbechev (sp) to fuck off. I've said it from the beginning, Trump is out for Trump, and if Russia has something to help Trump and his businesses, I fully believe that he will make nice with Putin while Putin invades another country around Russia.

Trump's position with communists and the entire world is just another reason why I could never back him, and why conservative foreign policy experts think he would be a disaster. Isolationism in today's world, with terrorism rampant and a global economy needing the USA to be strong? Disastrous. And his economic plan, whatever it is today, is also being panned by conservative economists as well

Then I guess we just simply disagree on this one. War happy Clinton who already doesn't have the respect of the Kremlin is a recipe for disaster IMO. Neither are great options but id rather go with the one that maybe has the chance for some cooperation between us and Russia.

I haven't even started on his joke of an idea that Mexico would pay for a wall, or numerous other reasons he's bad for America. But my wife wants to watch the rest of a show we started yesterday, so I'm out. I just feel the dude is a sick human being, an egomaniac to the millionth degree, and would be a disaster for this country in a million ways. Mark Cuban and many other conservatives agree. This isn't pro-Hillary, but it most definitely anti-trumph.

Again don't disagree with you, just playing devil's advocate and pointing out how equally shitty Hillary is.

Enjoy the show
 

BGIF

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Clinton Not Doing Well With Sanders Supporters

Clinton Not Doing Well With Sanders Supporters

NBC News/Wall St Journal Poll 5/15- 5/19

41% View her Negatively

38% View her Positively


Only 66% of Sanders Primary Voters would back Clinton in Pres Election.



On the other hand, 88% of Clinton supporters would back Sanders.
 

GATTACA!

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NBC News/Wall St Journal Poll 5/15- 5/19

41% View her Negatively

38% View her Positively


Only 66% of Sanders Primary Voters would back Clinton in Pres Election.



On the other hand, 88% of Clinton supporters would back Sanders.

They democratic party would rather lose and endure 4 years of Trump then back Bernie. Trump is 4 years of deadlock but Bernie means they take a massive hit in their pocket books.
 

BleedBlueGold

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The DNC, esp Debbie Wasserman Schultz, are driving that party into the ground and the mainstream media is literally ignoring the story.

Yesterday, HRC broke her agreement with Sanders and will not debate pre-CA primary. It's just more of the same from her, yet the media continues to blast Sanders and his supporters for not "getting behind Hillary."

The pundits are delusional. Hillary is delusional. The DNC is delusional. Her supporters/donors are delusional.

I've been on the fence prior, but recently, I think enough people are going to turn on Hillary and it's going to allow Trump into the WH. Trump is a maniac, but people legitimately hate Hillary.
 

BleedBlueGold

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To add, I'm sick and tired of this condescending, arrogant tone put forth by Hillary, her supporters, and the pundits. It's not a hard concept to grasp that in this day in age, the internet yields endless access to information not available to generations past. It's pretty easy to dig into Hillary's past and see how horrible she is. Secondly, the majority of this country is sick and tired of the typical D.C. politician.

IF Hillary doesn't win, the narrative will be all about blaming Bernie and his "BernieBro" millennial voter base. But I have news for you; it won't be Bernie's fault. It'll be Hillary's fault. Plain and simple.
 

NDinL.A.

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The DNC, esp Debbie Wasserman Schultz, are driving that party into the ground and the mainstream media is literally ignoring the story.

Yesterday, HRC broke her agreement with Sanders and will not debate pre-CA primary. It's just more of the same from her, yet the media continues to blast Sanders and his supporters for not "getting behind Hillary."

The pundits are delusional. Hillary is delusional. The DNC is delusional. Her supporters/donors are delusional.

I've been on the fence prior, but recently, I think enough people are going to turn on Hillary and it's going to allow Trump into the WH. Trump is a maniac, but people legitimately hate Hillary.

Sanders is delusional too. He keeps railing on the superdelegates and the system being rigged, but he's behind on both the popular vote and regular delegates. He has pretty much zero chance to win, but Hillary is the delusional one?

Both parties are completely fucked up. They've given us 3 (4 with Cruz) deeply flawed candidates. And yes, Bernie is deeply flawed (edit: his policies are deeply flawed, not him the person as far as I know). He's just been spared by the same media you rail on, because they've been too busy hitting on Trump and Hillary, the only two with a chance to win.

And dude, you are delusional if you don't think people legitimately hate Trump. His unfavorables, somehow even worse than Hillary's, aren't an accident. People legitimately hate both.
 

NorthDakota

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They democratic party would rather lose and endure 4 years of Trump then back Bernie. Trump is 4 years of deadlock but Bernie means they take a massive hit in their pocket books.

I have a question...wasn't John McCain's age back in '08 made out to be an issue for voters to consider? He was 71 at the time. Bernie is turning 75 this year and would be turning 79 in four years. This is his last chance I'd imagine.
 

BleedBlueGold

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Sanders is delusional too. He keeps railing on the superdelegates and the system being rigged, but he's behind on both the popular vote and regular delegates. He has pretty much zero chance to win, but Hillary is the delusional one?

If you're only looking at that aspect of Bernie's continued campaigning, then yeah, he is delusional. He's not going to win. But that's not what I'm talking about. Bernie is trying to fight back against the corruption. The money in politics. There are plenty of people who don't like his policies, but have completely agreed with him on his main mission, which is to take back our government from the lobbyists.

Both parties are completely fucked up. They've given us 3 (4 with Cruz) deeply flawed candidates. And yes, Bernie is deeply flawed (edit: his policies are deeply flawed, not him the person as far as I know). He's just been spared by the same media you rail on, because they've been too busy hitting on Trump and Hillary, the only two with a chance to win.

Is it just the parties' fault though? The people are the ones voting. And Bernie has not been spared by the media. I promise you that. I've posted numerous examples of the blatant hate and attacks against him. Disagreeing with his policies is one thing, but there has been an onslaught of hate thrown at him via the online news media since the beginning. That's not debatable. The tv media have largely just ignored him, which in a way, is just as bad because it's poor journalism and reporting.

And since you're clearly calling me out for my Bernie support, let me be clear on something: I don't support every single detail of every policy the man holds. I'm on record numerous times throughout this thread disagreeing with some of his ideas. I just tend to look at the big picture and see a man who seems honest and trustworthy and legitimately wants to fight back against the billionaire oligarchs in this country. I think that's admirable and I think it's needed in order to accomplish anything worthwhile.

And dude, you are delusional if you don't think people legitimately hate Trump. His unfavorables, somehow even worse than Hillary's, aren't an accident. People legitimately hate both.

Don't spin my words into some pro-Trump stance. That man is equally hated by a lot of people and would be a disaster in the WH. I was just railing on Hillary in that post because I'm sick and tired of the condescension oozing from her, her campaign, her supporters, and the media pundits who back her. It's beyond annoying.
 

dales5050

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I read your article. I see what you mean.

Just found it remarkable that the conservative National Review wrote this, but then they wrote this one, too, two weeks earlier.

I think we are past the days where editors created a 'voice' for a publication. It's now all about pageviews for ad revenue.

So while this was published on the National Review it was written by a hired hand who runs her own policy shop and based on her post history has a very narrow focus of women's issues from inside the Republican tent.

To put it another way, if the analytics team at the National Review found that they were not getting enough female traffic or traction...a note would be passed up the food chain to onboard more of that content. The reason is many of the readers are not coming to the front page and digesting everything on the site. Instead, they are coming for a specific element of content and the hope is they stay for a couple extra page views.

I don't have recent or accurate stats but this article goes into the current challenge we have regarding online content.

Here are some stats from 2013

New York Times: 1,100 newsroom: 350 pieces of content per day (per September 2010): 17.4 million pageviews per day.

Huffington Post: 532 full-time editorial staff: 1,200 pieces of editorial content per day. 28 full-time blog editors: 400 blog posts per day: 43.4 million pageviews per day.

Buzzfeed: 100 full-time editorial staff: 373 pieces of editorial content per day: 6.4 million pageviews per day.

Slate: 40 full-time editorial staff: 60 pieces of editorial content per day: 2.4 million pageviews per day.

Business Insider: 70 full-time editorial staff: 300 pieces of editorial content per day: 2.5 million pageviews per day.​


The short of it is we have created a monster. I think in news media we have replaced journalists with publishing brands. Just consider the volume of stuff that you read every day online. Now consider of each of those items how many can you go back and pinpoint who actually wrote it.

Just take your comment. You didn't say a female voice in Abby M. McCloskey but rather the National Review.
 

dales5050

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The problem for Trump (and the GOP generally) is that the demographics hostile to him are growing rapidly, while white working class voters are declining. So unless Trump is able to mobilize a historic turn-out from his supporters, his strength with that demographic won't be nearly enough to offset Hillary's advantage.

I think there are a couple of other possible courses here that until proven otherwise should be considered.

First, if it's HRC v. Trump we will have an election of who you dislike less. That's terrible on so many levels.

Second, the full extent impact from the Sanders campaign has yet to been seen. If things get ugly in California and at the convention...who knows what will happen.

I think how Boxer mocked the convention in Nevada is a pretty good summary of how divided the Dems are right now. While Trump has many, many, many issues...I don't recall him ever mocking or dismissing the supporters for Cruz or any of the other Republican candidates. Could be wrong.

I think the FU by the Democratic elite is going to have a larger reverb than many expect.

Third, and I think this is the key to this election is the unexpected. Right now all of the back of the envelop projects are based on trends. Working class voters do this, blacks do that..etc.

If there is some sort of bombshell on either one of these candidates between now and the election all votes are off.
 

kjones

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3. On flip-flopping, I was speaking of the variety in which Trump does it not only over a period of years (as does Hillary), but in a matter of days, sometimes in a matter of hours and even sometimes in a matter of friggin' minutes. Take, for example, yesterday's gem from Trump, in which he blasted Clinton for "lying" about Trump wanting to abolish gun-free school zones. As soon as he called her out on that, the moron said this:

I mean, wtf is wrong with this dude??? "Hillary is a liar for saying I want guns in the classroom! I don't want them in the classroom, but I actually do want guns in the classroom."

Just want to point out that this is actually a persuasion/hypnosis trick and very strategic by Trump. The idea is that everyone suffers from confirmation bias, they see what they want to see and they ignore/rationalize things that differ from their point of view. So by saying things that lean towards both sides of an issue, Trump can come out ahead with more voters. Imagine two Trump supporters or would be supporters:

1. Dislikes guns. "Trump said he doesn't want guns in the classroom, that's final. The second part of the sentence is Trump recognizing that the world we live in has terrible situations when a gun would be useful. I recognize is true, but like Trump I don't think we should have them, it's just not worth the risk. I'm glad Trump agrees with my position.

2. Likes guns. "Trump said there's are definitely times we need guns in the class room, that's final. The first part of sentence is Trump recognizing that the world would be a better place if we didn't have to have them there. I recognize this is true, but like Trump I know that there are instances where you just need them there, and it's not worth the risk for them not to be there. I'm glad Trump agrees with my position.

Either way he comes out ahead. He's does this kind of stuff ALL THE TIME. He's really quite impressive at his persuasion technique and he never stops, he's at it with every single thing he says. Check out Scott Adams's blog (from Dilbert) if this interests you. He's been blogging about Trumps persuasion techniques since last August.
 

kjones

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I think there are a couple of other possible courses here that until proven otherwise should be considered.

First, if it's HRC v. Trump we will have an election of who you dislike less. That's terrible on so many levels.

Second, the full extent impact from the Sanders campaign has yet to been seen. If things get ugly in California and at the convention...who knows what will happen.

I think how Boxer mocked the convention in Nevada is a pretty good summary of how divided the Dems are right now. While Trump has many, many, many issues...I don't recall him ever mocking or dismissing the supporters for Cruz or any of the other Republican candidates. Could be wrong.

I think the FU by the Democratic elite is going to have a larger reverb than many expect.

Third, and I think this is the key to this election is the unexpected. Right now all of the back of the envelop projects are based on trends. Working class voters do this, blacks do that..etc.

If there is some sort of bombshell on either one of these candidates between now and the election all votes are off.

You guys also realize Trump has about 25% of the black vote currently, which is huge for a Republican. His appeal really goes to the working class of almost any race. While this is before the election and could go up or down, this is huge news. For example, GWBush got about 9% and McCain got less than 4%.

Based on his track record of taking over the Republican party, I honestly would bet on his support in the Black community going up and not down. It's quite astonishing really.

Trump Gets UNEXPECTED Announcement About Blacks... Hillary Clinton Is Scared! - The Political Insider
 

dales5050

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You guys also realize Trump has about 25% of the black vote currently, which is huge for a Republican. His appeal really goes to the working class of almost any race. While this is before the election and could go up or down, this is huge news. For example, GWBush got about 9% and McCain got less than 4%.

Based on his track record of taking over the Republican party, I honestly would bet on his support in the Black community going up and not down. It's quite astonishing really.

Trump Gets UNEXPECTED Announcement About Blacks... Hillary Clinton Is Scared! - The Political Insider


This is why you can't trust what you read online.

The story you linked to linked to another post on washingtonexaminer.com...which then linked to the Study by SurveyUSA.

If you look at the survey details you'll find:

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents are included in this survey. SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 USA adults 09/02/15 and 09/03/15.


All that happened here is a game of telephone
 

kjones

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This is why you can't trust what you read online.

The story you linked to linked to another post on washingtonexaminer.com...which then linked to the Study by SurveyUSA.

If you look at the survey details you'll find:

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents are included in this survey. SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 USA adults 09/02/15 and 09/03/15.


All that happened here is a game of telephone

So 25% of blacks in September. Okay.
 

IrishJayhawk

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So 25% of blacks in September. Okay.

And a poll that came out yesterday, she leads him 88-9.

Clinton's Lead Over Trump Shrinks to 3 Points: New NBC News/WSJ Poll - NBC News


Looking inside the numbers of her race against Trump, Clinton holds the edge among African Americans (88 percent to 9 percent), Latinos (68 percent to 20 percent), women (51 percent to 38 percent) and those ages 18 to 34 (55 percent to 32 percent).

Trump, meanwhile, is ahead among whites (52 percent to 36 percent), seniors (52 percent to 41 percent), men (49 percent to 40 percent) and independents (42 percent to 37 percent).

ETA: Obama won the African-American vote 93-6. Romney also won 59% of White voters and Trump polled above at 52%, FWIW.

How Groups Voted in 2012 - Roper Center
 
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EddytoNow

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You guys also realize Trump has about 25% of the black vote currently, which is huge for a Republican. His appeal really goes to the working class of almost any race. While this is before the election and could go up or down, this is huge news. For example, GWBush got about 9% and McCain got less than 4%.

Based on his track record of taking over the Republican party, I honestly would bet on his support in the Black community going up and not down. It's quite astonishing really.

Trump Gets UNEXPECTED Announcement About Blacks... Hillary Clinton Is Scared! - The Political Insider

I'm not sure where you are getting your numbers, but I would be surprised if Trump's support among black voters doesn't end up in single digits. Hillary may have taken some middle-of-the-road stances on issues of importance to blacks, but she has a lifelong record of advocating for minorities. She is beating Sanders in the popular primary vote because of her strong support among black voters. Trump has no record of supporting issues important to black voters.
 

wizards8507

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Pretty sure Whiskeyjack wrote this.

Donald Trump is going to win: This is why Hillary Clinton can’t defeat what Trump represents - Salon.com

The neofascist reaction, the force behind Trump, has come about because of the extreme disembeddedness of the economy from social relations. The neoliberal economy has become pure abstraction; as has the market, as has the state, there is no reality to any of these things the way we have classically understood them. Americans, like people everywhere rising up against neoliberal globalization (in Britain, for example, this takes the form of Brexit, or exit from the European Union), want a return of social relations, or embeddedness, to the economy.

The Trump alliance desires to remake the world in their own image, just as the class representing neoliberal globalization has insisted on doing so. The difference couldn’t be starker. Capitalism today is placeless, locationless, nameless, faceless, while Trump is talking about hauling corporations back to where they belong, in their home countries, fix them in place by means of rewards and retribution, like one handles a recalcitrant child.

Trump is a businessman, while Mitt Romney was a businessman too, yet I predict victory for the former while the latter obviously lost miserably. What is the difference? While Trump “builds” things (literal buildings), in places like Manhattan and Atlantic City, places one can recognize and identify with, and while Trump’s entire life has been orchestrated around building luxury and ostentatiousness, again things one can tangibly grasp and hold on to (the Trump steaks!), Romney is the personification of a placeless corporation, making his quarter billion dollars from consulting, i.e., representing economic abstraction at its purest, serving as a high priest of the transnational capitalist class.

No one can visualize the boardroom Romney sat in, as head of Bain Capital, but, via The Apprentice, everyone has seen, for more than a decade, what Trump’s boardroom looks like, and what it takes to be a “winner” in the real economy. What was that façade behind the collapse of fictitious corporations like Enron in the early 2000s? Trump supposedly pulled the veil off.

In the present election, Hillary Clinton represents precisely the same disembodiedness as Romney, for example because of her association with the Clinton Foundation. Where did the business of the state, while she was secretary of state, stop, and where did the business of global philanthropy (just another name for global business), begin, and who can possibly tell the difference? The maneuverings of the Clinton Foundation, in the popular imagination, are as arcane as the colossal daily transactions on the world’s financial exchanges.

Everything about Clinton—and this becomes all the more marked when she takes on the (false) mantle of speaking for the underclass, with whom she bears no mental or physical resemblance—reeks of the easy mobility of the global rentier class. Their efficacy cannot be accounted for, not through the kind of democratic process that is unfolding before our eyes as a remnant of the American founding imagination, her whole sphere of movement is pure abstraction.

In this election, abstraction will clearly lose, and corporeality, even if—or particularly if—gross and vulgar and rising from the repressed, will undoubtedly win. A business tycoon who vigorously inserted himself in the imaginations of the dispossessed as the foremost exponent of birtherism surely cannot be entirely beholden to the polite elites, can he? Trump is capital, but he is not capital, he is of us but also not of us in the way that the working class desires elevation from their rootedness, still strongly identified with place and time, not outside it. After all, he posed the elemental question, Where were you born?

Though he is in fact the libertine (certainly not Clinton, who is libertinism’s antithesis), he will be able to tar her with being permissive to an extreme degree—an “enabler,” as the current jargon has it, for her husband’s proclivities, for example. It has nothing to do with misogyny. It has everything to do with the kind of vocabulary that must substitute for people’s real emotions, their fears and desires, in the face of an abstract market that presumes to rule out everything but the “rational” utility-maximizing motive.

For the market to exist, as classical economics would have it, there must be free buyers and sellers, competitive prices, a marketplace that remains fixed and transparent, and none of these elements exist anymore in the neoliberal economy, which seeks to stamp out the last vestiges of resistance in the most forgotten parts of the world. In fact, the market has created—in the ghost towns of the American Midwest, for example—a kind of sub-Saharan desolation, in the heartland of the country, all the better to identify the completeness of its project in the “successful” coastal cities. Trump is a messenger from the most successful of these cities, and his very jet-setting presence, in the middle of empty landscapes, provides an imaginary access point.

Darkness in the human soul is not utility-maximizing, therefore someone has to stand in for the opposite of what the market establishes as the universal solvent, and that someone, in this election, happens to be Hillary Clinton; which makes her unelectable. She will not, in fact, be able to discover, as she hasn’t so far, anything like an authentic voice which can prove to the electorate that she is not that dark force the market cannot account for. But note the irony: by discrediting Clinton in this manner, the losers in the global economy are actually articulating yet another form for the decisive articulateness of the market after all!

The population across the board does not see the abstractions of the transnational capitalist class being able to solve a problem like ISIS, which represents a crisis of authority. Wasn’t al-Qaeda defeated? Didn’t we get Osama bin Laden’s head? Then what is this lingering distaste called ISIS? Forms of darkness are easily substitutable, thus Hillary (whose synecdoche is Benghazi, or secret emails) becomes unable to speak the truth, the more she tries.

But…I do not want to claim for a minute that Trump can represent anything other than the further strengthening of neoliberal capitalism, both domestically and globally. He can only represent a further intensification, as would be true of anyone else. The total globalization of the market—our greatest of myths today, the one all-powerful entity to which all, state, civil society, and individual, have completely bent—is unstoppable. The flat earth posited by Tom Friedman in the 1990s will end up erasing all local distinctiveness, the end goal of neoliberalism. While Trump represents the desire for national regeneration—as is true of any neofascist movement—this is not possible in the twenty-first century, because the state as we have known it has ended, as has the market in the conventional understanding.

In the end, Trump cannot take charge, because no one can take charge. Capital today serves nothing other than capital itself. In the current post-democratic, post-“capitalism” era, the myths of regeneration propounded by Trump serve as convenient fictions, as capital well knows, and is therefore little disturbed by.

Nonetheless, Trump has brought to the surface the leftover mobs of American society, the residual unemployable, the “losers” constituting perhaps a third of society, who were never acknowledged as such during the past many cycles of political ups and downs, but who are now forcing the successful two-thirds to face up to the fictions of the market.

When Trump’s masses see Clinton tacking to the middle—as she undoubtedly will, rather than go for the surefire path to victory by heading left, by picking Bernie Sanders for example—the more they will detest it, which will push her only further in their direction, not in the direction that can bring victory. Clinton, because of her disembodied identity in the placeless global economy, cannot make a movement toward the direction of reality, because the equations would falter, the math would be off, the logic would be unsustainable. And that is the contradiction that the country can easily see, that is the exposed front of the abstract market that will bring about its supposed reckoning in the form of Clinton’s defeat.

But the reckoning, again, will be pure fiction. Trump is not a fascist father figure, he is not the second coming of Mussolini, he is the new virtual figure who is as real as reality television, which is even more recessive and vanishing compared to Ronald Reagan’s Hollywood fictions. The field of action in which Trump specialized for a long time before the nation, as dress rehearsal for the current (and final) role, was one where, at least to outward appearances, the presence of surplus capital was acknowledged and taken for granted, and aspirants competed to know more about it and to desperately work on its behalf.

With the ascension of Trump, an entire country of apprentices wants to get a handle on surplus capital by bringing the state back in, but as I said before, this is impossible because the pre-neoliberal state is gone, it has been reduced to the market, it is the market. Again, capital serves only capital, though Trump’s followers wish to see him create a split whereby they can enter the picture, forcibly, though even they perhaps know that Trump, as president, cannot sue evanescent corporations, or other realities of the market, even if suing is a tendency that comes naturally to him.

To take the logic one step further, the myth of the market—or the way “government” is run today—cannot acknowledge one thing and one thing only: death. If you compete (whether in Trump’s boardroom or on the “level playing field” he wants to bring about in America by excluding illegal competitors, whether undocumented aliens or Chinese currency manipulators or unwanted Mexican goods), you win. (Of course, this only strengthens the myth of the market, but that is something that will be evident to the populace once Trump is in power; they want a localized, responsive, non-idle market, but the market is beyond the need to accommodate itself in those ways.)

But to get back to death, Trump’s campaign has been successful so far, and will surely be victorious in the end, because he is the only one who has brought death back into the discourse.

The only people identified with death today on the global scene—the only people not part of the market and not able to be part of it—are terrorists, undocumented immigrants, the homeless and the mentally ill, those who have no claims to success in the market. Trump’s people want to make sure—from the purest feeling of shame known to politics—that they are not of the unchosen ones, they want to enforce a radical separation between their kind of shame, which they think is unwarranted, by excluding illegal competition, by constructing literal walls to keep out the death-dealers, by overruling the transnational party elites who have sold them out.

Trump is vocally identifying the death aura, prodding the working class to confront the other, which is as alienated and excluded as itself, but which the working class likes to imagine is the irreconcilable other. By forcing this confrontation he has put himself in the winner’s seat.

Let us note the rise of suicide among white working-class men and women, of all ages. This—like the other deals in death that the market fails to name—is an assertion of independence from the market.

Let us note too the power of the transgender rights movement (after the relative normalization of the presence of AIDS, and also of same-sex marriage) to prompt ferocious emotions amongst the excluded; this movement has become a substitute for the power of death—sexual death—to terrify us. They would rather be terrified by something they can do something about, knowing that the market wants to assimilate this form of gender-bending, identity-shifting, unlocalizable personality triumph. Again, Trump is virtual but not virtual, he is of TV but not of TV, functioning more as an ambassador from TV than an actor or role-player in that world—which makes him uniquely equipped, in the eyes of his supporters, for taking on the kinds of death-dealers that they think mess up the market against their parochial interests.

Think again of Trump’s initiation of his campaign with the idea of the wall, and calling those who break through the wall rapists and murderers. And compare it to Clinton’s opening gambit of giving identifiable personalities to the clear winners in the transnational race to acquire and embody capital, paraded one after the other in her first campaign commercial. And then think of the culture warriors, both on the left and the right, as perceiving every threat as a personal attack on their very being, their very existence, no matter how trivial the offense (hence the revealing term “micro-aggressions), exactly as the Trump proletariat reacts to attacks on their identity, as they have been trained to respond after decades of rampant identity politics. Now consider, in the face of these three competing tendencies, the market’s pure victory; because all three games are being played out on its terms, it is the preordained winner. And yet, I would say, Trump must win, he has to win, to give the element he represents, of the three mentioned here, a degree of equality with the other two. The spectacle must be kept interesting after all.

What is common between the “multitudes” who show up for the Trump and Sanders rallies? Both constituencies are rebelling against the empire of capital, the empire of the market (whether the right calls it the New World Order or the left calls it free trade), and they show up naming empire as such. In this election campaign, whoever names the empire of the market wins (Trump, or Sanders had he been able to overcome the barriers erected by the Democratic party), and whoever hides its name (Clinton), loses. Are these rallies, Trump’s and Sanders’s, aesthetic spectacles, or are they radical politics? The market does not have an answer to this question, or rather it has already answered it to its own satisfaction.

Is Trump a racist? Does he represent racists? We have to take into account the fact that the recent resurgence of racism—in the form of overt police beatings, for example, and other things that we thought had been relegated to the past—is a symptom of the failure of the old state, it is simply an assertion on the part of the market that we cannot count on the “state” as such to resolve the fantasy of racism as the great equalizer. The market, I would dare to assert, is quite happy at the failure of the state to contend with racism. And to the extent that Trump fans the flames of racism, the market is happy with that too, it remains above the fray, so to speak, it remains the only untouched, unsullied, uncorrupted entity in the whole ongoing show.

I expect Trump to take a national lead shortly and never relinquish it until the end. It will be easy if he keeps the libertine and destructive aspects of himself in perfect balance, seesawing from one to the other, as he has so far, appealing to an elemental fear in the country, torn apart by the abstraction of the market, to which Clinton has not the faintest hope of responding. He only has to use one distinctively non-misogynist, concretely unifying, morose five-letter word in the debates: NAFTA. A pure market abstraction that has turned out to be not so much an abstraction.
 

NDinL.A.

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If you're only looking at that aspect of Bernie's continued campaigning, then yeah, he is delusional. He's not going to win. But that's not what I'm talking about. Bernie is trying to fight back against the corruption. The money in politics. There are plenty of people who don't like his policies, but have completely agreed with him on his main mission, which is to take back our government from the lobbyists.

My whole point was that the system is "rigged" like he keeps claiming. You can say the system is stupid (I would agree) and confusing (yup), but it isn't rigged - he's losing by every metric, fair and square. As for the media, well, Trump flipped the game. He calls in to every talk show, tweets incessantly, and plays the media like a fiddle. Sanders has tried a different tact, and in some ways it has really worked (see: his rallies) and in other ways it hasn't (see: the media is obsessed with Trump, and now Trump vs. Clinton). Trump didn't complain (alright I'm lying...dude bitches about every loss and perceived slight from the media more than an unhappy pregnant wife), he went out and changed the game.

Don't spin my words into some pro-Trump stance. That man is equally hated by a lot of people and would be a disaster in the WH. I was just railing on Hillary in that post because I'm sick and tired of the condescension oozing from her, her campaign, her supporters, and the media pundits who back her. It's beyond annoying.

I was responding to this:

Trump is a maniac, but people legitimately hate Hillary.

Not sure how you expect people to take that, but I’m not spinning anything. It sounds pretty clear there that you are against Trump because he is a maniac, BUT people despise Hillary, as if they don't despise Trump too. The only way I can take that is that you think people don’t despise Trump, otherwise you would have said both are despised.

I don't hate Sanders supporters. I've met many and they have good hearts. I haven’t met the angry ones yet that are causing problems – we can agree those people just make things worse. But I don’t hate Sanders supporters at all. I disagree with them ideologically speaking, but that’s OK. I’ve never disliked supporters of any candidate (other than someone like David Duke), because I have no problem with people thinking differently than I do. The only supporters I’ve encountered, face to face, that made me despise them are the fervent Trump supporters (not the begrudging ones or the party followers – the ones that have fed off his fear mongering and race baiting). They are on a whole new level. But they take it from their leader, so I guess it should be expected.
But Cruz supporters, Bernie, Hillary…meh, you believe what you believe and it’s all good. State your piece and let’s go have a beer. Just keep the hate, hyperbole, and racism out of it. JMHO.
 

Legacy

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Yes. Trump polls terribly among minorities and college-educated white women, while his numbers are strong among working-class whites of both sexes. These trends have been gaining momentum for decades, though Trump has likely accelerated them.

The problem for Trump (and the GOP generally) is that the demographics hostile to him are growing rapidly, while white working class voters are declining. So unless Trump is able to mobilize a historic turn-out from his supporters, his strength with that demographic won't be nearly enough to offset Hillary's advantage.

The draw with Trump is returning full power to the lily white Party.
 

dales5050

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So 25% of blacks in September. Okay.


25% of blacks in a group of 1000 people were asked a series of question 9 months ago.

You, incorrectly, turned around and said:

You guys also realize Trump has about 25% of the black vote currently

1 - 1000 people is a really small sample size to suggest 'of blacks' or implied 'all blacks'

2 - 9 months ago in a political campaign is no different than 9 years ago if you think about it.
 
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