2016 Presidential Horse Race

[BGIF]

Cruz 6 Wyoming Delegates; One To Rubio

Cruz 6 Wyoming Delegates; One To Rubio

Republicans in Wyoming, Washington, and Guam Cast Their Ballots | Advocate.com
BY SUNNIVIE BRYDUM
MARCH 12 2016 2:35 PM EST

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz opened strong in Wyoming, with early returns showing the antigay conservative stalwart taking more than 64 percent of the vote in the Equality State, according to The New York Times. The newspaper predicts that means Cruz will pick up six delegates from the state. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio came in second, with just over 25 percent of the vote, securing one delegate, with 74 percent of precincts reporting.

 

[kmoose]

You bet. Sure beats victim blaming and acceptable levels of violence against free assembly. Haha. .

It's not "victim blaming" to say that people don't have the right to silence other people in their exercise of free speech. If you want to protest, you are entitled to do so. Just like yelling "FIRE" in a crowded movie theater is an exception to the Free Speech rule, I think that intentionally shutting down a political rally, through violence (or the verbal threat of it) should also be an exception.

If you really believe what you are saying, Cack, then you have opened a Pandora's Box like no other. It means that all I have to do is go into a black church and scream the N word, inciting a brawl, and then I can sit back and cry victim blaming because the pastor has told his congregation that they have to stand up to bigotry, and sometimes a reasonable amount of physical force might be ok.

 

[BGIF]

Clinton gains ground on Sanders in Northern Marianas - CNNPolitics.com

By Robert Yoon, CNN
Updated 5:19 PM ET, Sat March 12, 2016

Hillary Clinton has won the first-ever Northern Mariana Islands Democratic caucuses, according to final results from the local Democratic Party.

...

Clinton received 102 total votes (54%), compared to 65 votes for Bernie Sanders (34%) in the Northern Mariana Islands. An additional 22 votes were cast for "uncommitted."

The former secretary of state picked up four additional delegates with her win, while Sanders earned two delegates. Clinton already had the support of an unpledged superdelegate from the Northern Marianas.

This is Clinton's 14th victory in her quest for the Democratic presidential nomination and her second in a U.S. territory. She won the American Samoa caucus on Super Tuesday, March 1. Bernie Sanders has won nine contests, most recently his upset victory over Clinton in Michigan on March 8.

 

[BGIF]

Update from Fox

Update from Fox

Republicans in Wyoming, Washington, and Guam Cast Their Ballots | Advocate.com
BY SUNNIVIE BRYDUM
MARCH 12 2016 2:35 PM EST

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz opened strong in Wyoming, with early returns showing the antigay conservative stalwart taking more than 64 percent of the vote in the Equality State, according to The New York Times. The newspaper predicts that means Cruz will pick up six delegates from the state. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio came in second, with just over 25 percent of the vote, securing one delegate, with 74 percent of precincts reporting.

Update 3/16/16

Cruz 9 Delegates
Trump 1
Rubio 1
Kasich 0

• Today Wyoming held 23 county conventions to elect 12 delegates (No explanation of how 23=12)
  
• In April the State holds a convention and will elect another 14 delegates
  
• There will be 3 unbound RNC Delegates (supers)

 

[BGIF]

D.C. GOP Primary

D.C. GOP Primary

Taking place today at Loews Madison hotel, the only Republican polling station in D.C.

19 delegates at stake.


Voter Turnout estimated at 4,000. Last Pres primary 6,000 turned out. Guess they're not excited about the anti-establishment candidates.

"No poll has been held of the D.C. republicans preference."



THE polling place closes soon.

 

[NDgradstudent]

The stonewalling of all legislation and presidential appointments over the past 20 years is pre-dominantly a Republican effort.

Bork
Bork
Bork
Bork
Bork

You have to look back to where it all began. And who was leading the charge.

 

[NDgradstudent]

The LA Times provides some details on the "Black Lives Matter" cry-bullies in Chicago:

Amalia Pallares, a political science professor involved in the effort, said she believes Trump’s divisive rhetoric is inconsistent with the university’s values of inclusion. “We didn’t feel this was the right venue for this kind of event,” she said in an interview.

“We were not opposed to free speech,” she continued. “It was a security issue. We felt that it would be a big challenge for the university to protect the students.”

When you have to say you're not opposed to free speech...

Also, who do the students need protection from? They cannot bear the sight of people who disagree with them? What is going to happen when they actually have to go get jobs after their four-year coddle-fest?

The demonstration kicked off Friday afternoon, with a rally on campus where Muslim and Latino immigrant students spoke. Protesters then marched to the rally site carrying a banner that read: “Trump makes America hate. Our students make America great.”

While some protesters stayed outside, others went into the event, many of them concealing anti-Trump posters under their clothes.

When Trump officials announced that the candidate wouldn’t be appearing because of security concerns, the crowd erupted, said B. Loewe, an organizer with a Latino group called Mijente, who was present at the rally. Trump supporters were angry, he said, and protesters were celebrating.

Some protesters chanted, “We stopped Trump,” he said, while others sang the lyrics to a Kendrick Lamar song, “We Gon’ Be Alright,” that has become an anthem of the Black Lives Matter movement.

Others in the crowd yelled slogans in support of Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders.

The classic heckler's veto: the threat of violence gets you what you want. In order to avert the violence, somebody has to give the baby his bottle. The problem is that they'll do it again, and again, and again...

 

[pkt77242]

The LA Times provides some details on the "Black Lives Matter" cry-bullies in Chicago:



When you have to say you're not opposed to free speech...

Also, who do the students need protection from? They cannot bear the sight of people who disagree with them? What is going to happen when they actually have to go get jobs after their four-year coddle-fest?



The classic heckler's veto: the threat of violence gets you what you want. In order to avert the violence, somebody has to give the baby his bottle. The problem is that they'll do it again, and again, and again...

Out of curiosity where in the quotes you posted does it mention anyone threatening violence?

 

[NDgradstudent]

Out of curiosity where in the quotes you posted does it mention anyone threatening violence?

Amalia Pallares, a political science professor involved in the effort, said she believes Trump’s divisive rhetoric is inconsistent with the university’s values of inclusion. “We didn’t feel this was the right venue for this kind of event,” she said in an interview.

“We were not opposed to free speech,” she continued. “It was a security issue. We felt that it would be a big challenge for the university to protect the students.”

The professor quoted in the article said that it would be difficult to "protect the students"- from what? Violence, presumably. It is a reasonable inference.

Worth noting too that false-flag operations have been the M.O. of lefties lately. College students regularly stage hate-crime and rape hoaxes in order to get attention/ruin lives of the 'privileged'/etc. We don't have to look further than some other ACC members to see examples of the latter type of hoax. Given all of this, the assumption in these cases should be that there was a hoax until evidence to the contrary is produced.

In this case, claims that Trump supporters are "dangerous" are likely designed to produce sympathetic press attention on these thugs who want to shut down political events attended by people that they dislike.

 

[connor_in]

'Easily confused': Hillary Clinton calls out Bernie Sanders (and it backfires) twitchy.com

 

[NDinL.A.]

After watching another Trump rally recently in the South and witnessing the behavior of his openly racist followers, I fully expect his campaign slogan to change to #RollTide any day now.

 

[T Town Tommy]

After watching another Trump rally recently in the South and witnessing the behavior of his openly racist followers, I fully expect his campaign slogan to change to #RollTide any day now.

Too bad the Left Coast won't see any of it as they will be tucked away in their "safe rooms."

 

[BGIF]

Rubio Wins D.C. GOP Primary

Rubio Wins D.C. GOP Primary

Taking place today at Loews Madison hotel, the only Republican polling station in D.C.

19 delegates.

Voter Turnout estimated at 4,000. Last Pres primary 6,000 turned out. Guess they're not excited about the anti-establishment candidates.

"No poll has been held of the D.C. republicans preference."



THE polling place closes soon.

RESULTS

Rubio 10
Kasich 9
Trump 0
Cruz 0

 

[kmoose]

'Easily confused': Hillary Clinton calls out Bernie Sanders (and it backfires) twitchy.com

Oooooooooooppppss!

 

[NDinL.A.]

Too bad the Left Coast won't see any of it as they will be tucked away in their "safe rooms."

I should have added, "no offense to our Bama friends".

But I will add that it boggles my kind that this lying, flip-flopping on every issue, fake conservative, bully, fake Christian, Hillary supporting, sexist, racist, fear mongering, fraud of a candidate is getting so many votes. He's built an entire campaign centered around hatred and fear mongering, and his mindless sheep are lapping it up. When it comes to policy, he is literally a dumb-ass who simply says he'll 'make better deals' lol. His knowledge on issues is an inch deep and a mile wide, while every single other candidate can delve deep into their actual policy plans. And yet with every stupid/hate-filled thing he says, he grabs tons of new, ignorant voters.

It sickens me.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

"I hear Secretary Clinton was in Ohio last night talking about how concerned she is about the auto industry – an industry decimated by the North American Free Trade Agreement and normalized trade with China. She supported those bad deals. I opposed them.

Now she says she wants to make it tougher for automobiles to be imported to this country under the disastrous Trans-Pacific Partnership. That’s the deal she called the ‘gold standard’ when she was Secretary of State.

Well, I have a message for Secretary Clinton: We shouldn’t re-negotiate the Pacific trade proposal. We should kill this unfettered free-trade agreement which would cost us nearly half a million jobs.

We don’t need to tinker with this agreement. We need to defeat it. We need an entirely new trade policy that creates jobs in this country, not more low-wage jobs abroad.

Secretary Clinton could have stopped a trade deal that threatens hundreds of thousands of jobs last year when it was being debated in Congress. Instead, she chose to remain silent and forced working families, unions and members of Congress to fight against the world’s biggest corporations and the most powerful special interests in the country without her support.

The people of Ohio don’t need a president who says the right things in a stump speech. They need a president who is with them every single day." - From Bernie's Facebook profile

Hillary is absolutely awful. She's as bad as Trump is, period. Maybe less hateful, but more manipulative.

 

[phgreek]

'Easily confused': Hillary Clinton calls out Bernie Sanders (and it backfires) twitchy.com

...when a truly awful human being shoots themselves in the foot, its hard not to point and laugh. I won't gloat. To me, it is more data for closet Hillary lovers who already have serious soul searching to do...

 

[Legacy]

If Donald Trump Was President, Here's What Would Happen to the U.S. Economy (from "The Street")

Trump: “I saw a chart the other day, our real unemployment — because you have 90 million people that aren’t working. Ninety-three million to be exact. If you start adding it up, our real unemployment rate is 42 percent.”

Trump's Tax Plan is listed under our thread, "Economic stimulation now means the rich get richer"

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

I'm not sure how Obama committing war crimes would make it okay that Trump is advocating for the same.

Exactly my question

 

[wizards8507]

SJWs Will Elect Trump | The American Conservative

Sent from my Galaxy Note4 using Tapatalk.

 

[phgreek]

SJWs Will Elect Trump | The American Conservative

Sent from my Galaxy Note4 using Tapatalk.

...this was actually pretty balanced, and lines up with how I've seen Trump's ascension, and traction as of late.

As I look around and see the chicanery being instigated by both parties, I am concerned. Trump and Sanders may not win their respective nominations, but it will have taken mass manipulation to make that happen.

The DC crowd is now operating with such audacity/impunity, that the indignation that is cooking will not be able to be contained. Mark my words, this cycle is going to be marred by significant violence and tragedy.

 

[connor_in]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/O3iBb1gvehI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[GATTACA!]

I should have added, "no offense to our Bama friends".

But I will add that it boggles my kind that this lying, flip-flopping on every issue, fake conservative, bully, fake Christian, Hillary supporting, sexist, racist, fear mongering, fraud of a candidate is getting so many votes. He's built an entire campaign centered around hatred and fear mongering, and his mindless sheep are lapping it up. When it comes to policy, he is literally a dumb-ass who simply says he'll 'make better deals' lol. His knowledge on issues is an inch deep and a mile wide, while every single other candidate can delve deep into their actual policy plans. And yet with every stupid/hate-filled thing he says, he grabs tons of new, ignorant voters.

It sickens me.

I often wonder about this point. As ridiculous as Trump is, on some level he's clearly an intelligent person. He runs a multi billion dollar company. I wonder if maybe he just understands that he doesn't need to be specific on any policies to keep the base of support he has. A large portion of his supporters wouldn't be interested in listening to him summarize a 25 point economic plan, they would rather listen to him make fun of little Rubio and lying Ted. He knows that giving specifics would probably only hurt him. Specifics would give his opponents an actual target to aim at. As it stands now if he get attacked all Trump has to do is fall back on a broad response about how we get killed on trade, or that he will make better deals, ect.

I just think that maybe Trump wasn't expecting this level of success when he first started his campaign. To me it feels like he started with very basic ideas, before him and his team had a chance to build the specifics of his platform. Then once everything gets going he realized that he was dominating the field with those super basic ideas. At that point what's his incentive to get specific?

Or maybe he's just madman, I honestly can't tell.

 

[drayer54]

I often wonder about this point. As ridiculous as Trump is, on some level he's clearly an intelligent person. He runs a multi billion dollar company. I wonder if maybe he just understands that he doesn't need to be specific on any policies to keep the base of support he has. A large portion of his supporters wouldn't be interested in listening to him summarize a 25 point economic plan, they would rather listen to him make fun of little Rubio and lying Ted. He knows that giving specifics would probably only hurt him. Specifics would give his opponents an actual target to aim at. As it stands now if he get attacked all Trump has to do is fall back on a broad response about how we get killed on trade, or that he will make better deals, ect.

I just think that maybe Trump wasn't expecting this level of success when he first started his campaign. To me it feels like he started with very basic ideas, before him and his team had a chance to build the specifics of his platform. Then once everything gets going he realized that he was dominating the field with those super basic ideas. At that point what's his incentive to get specific?

Or maybe he's just madman, I honestly can't tell.

Romney was the same thing. Swap deal for leadership and it was just as vague. This is the problem with businessmen in the race. That's on message though. In every other way, Trump is in his own league of reckless bullshit.

 

[Bishop2b5]

I should have added, "no offense to our Bama friends".

But I will add that it boggles my kind that this lying, flip-flopping on every issue, fake conservative, bully, fake Christian, Hillary supporting, sexist, racist, fear mongering, fraud of a candidate is getting so many votes. He's built an entire campaign centered around hatred and fear mongering, and his mindless sheep are lapping it up. When it comes to policy, he is literally a dumb-ass who simply says he'll 'make better deals' lol. His knowledge on issues is an inch deep and a mile wide, while every single other candidate can delve deep into their actual policy plans. And yet with every stupid/hate-filled thing he says, he grabs tons of new, ignorant voters.

It sickens me.

I completely understand your frustration. I'm not a fan of Trump either. OTOH, Bernie & Hillary are even less palatable. One's an out-of-touch with reality radical loon and the other is completely devoid of character, integrity and honesty. This is the worst slate of candidates in my lifetime and none of the leading ones are fit for the job.

Not to defend Trump at all, but he's no worse than (and not particularly different from) most of the leading Dem candidates from the past 50 years. You could accurately call most of them a lying, flip-flopping on every issue, fake concern, bully, fake Christian, class warfare mongering, fear mongering, fraud of a candidate too. They appeal to an equally uneducated, mindless, no-thinking group of sheep who'll believe anyone who tells them what they want to hear, promises to solve all the world's problems, give them everything they want, and constantly make promises that there's absolutely no way they can keep.

The truth is that candidates from both sides (and especially in this year's election) will say anything, promise anything, pander to the worst elements of our character, lie like mad, flip-flop on any issue if the polls say it will help them, and shovel their absolutely unworkable and even harmful bs to the lowest-minded of their base just to get their vote. Neither Trump nor Hillary nor Bernie nor most of the main candidates from elections past believe half of what they say nor intend to ever keep half of their promises, but it panders to the worst of human emotions & character, appeals on an emotional level to the least educated and able to think elements of our society, and it gets the votes... and we keep rewarding them for doing all this by voting for them.

 

[BGIF]

Poll: Rubio drops to third in Florida, days before big Tuesday primaries | Fox News

3/14/16

Republican presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio has dropped to third place just days ahead of a crucial primary in his home state of Florida, according to a CBS News poll released Sunday.

The primary, among five Tuesday, is essentially a must-win for Rubio, who significantly trails front-runner Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in the delegate count. And Rubio’s drop in the poll appears to be another indication that his campaign might soon come to an end.

...

The billionaire businessman has 44 percent of the vote among registered voters in the state, compared to Cruz at 24 percent and Rubio at 21 percent.

...

 

[GATTACA!]

Poll: Rubio drops to third in Florida, days before big Tuesday primaries | Fox News

3/14/16

Rubio suicide watch is on. The only reason he was still hanging in there was because he thought he had a chance of beating the Donald on his home turf. This is just sad.

Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, and Florida are all winner takes all states. Trump is essentially tied in Ohio with Kasich and leading in the other three. If he wins all four that's 296 delegates, putting him at 756, at that point I don't see how he doesn't get to 1,237.

Some of the remaining states include....

New York is proportional. Right now Trump is way ahead in every poll. 50% of the delegates would be around 50.

California is winner take all. No real recent polling but the last three were Trump +6 Trump +2 and Cruz +2. That's another 172 delegates should he win.

North Carolina Trump is way ahead. 40% of their 72 delegates would be about 28.

Arizona's last poll had Carson +2 obviously he's out, the poll before that had Trump +17! That's another winner take all state with 58 delegates.

Pennsylvania Trump is up by 10 points. It's another winner take all state with 71 delegates.

Indiana best source i could find had Trump at 36%, double the next closest candidate. Another winner take all with 57.

If those all stayed the same just the ones I listed, which is less than half of the primaries remaining(10 of 27 to be exact), would be 455 delegates. That plus the first 4 states I listed get you to 1,211. Once he gets that close to the actual number there is no way they could block him at the convention, at least it's unprecedented to my knowledge.

Also don't quote me on any of this math, i'm doing it all in my head at 5am

 

[wizards8507]

Snip

I don't know what Rubio and his advisors are playing at. They have no path. His political career could literally be over. He should be polishing Ted Cruz' boots at this point for a spot on the ticket or in the cabinet. An establishment / Tea Party unity ticket is the only way of stopping Trump.

I also think Cruz is making a tactical error when he argues that Trump would lose to HRC and that's why the party shouldn't nominate him. The idea of a President Trump is far scarier to the #NeverTrump people than Trump losing to Clinton in the general election. Cruz should focus on what would be Trump's disastrous presidency, not his likely failure in the general. It feels less consequential to cast a "fuck you" vote for Trump if you subconsciously think he's going to lose anyways.

 

[connor_in]

 

[connor_in]