2016 Presidential Horse Race

[Cackalacky]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Yet another packed house. <a href="https://twitter.com/BernieSanders">@BernieSanders</a> addressed the crowd in Charleston, SC. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FeelTheBern?src=hash">#FeelTheBern</a> <br>✊������✊������ <a href="https://t.co/Na52QWbikf">pic.twitter.com/Na52QWbikf</a></p>— Justin Bamberg (@JustinBamberg) <a href="https://twitter.com/JustinBamberg/status/699697979872178177">February 16, 2016</a></blockquote>
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Very good IMO. So much better than just taking pot shots at Cruz and Bush mixed with sputtering sentence fragments.

Its really funny.... The people showing up to Trump were very engaged and celebratory of his swipes at the other candidates and he offered literally zero policy plans. No one seemed to mind or otherwise be aware.

On the other hand Bernie was engaging, respectful, concise, and the crowd was celebratory at his concepts and ideas.

 

[phgreek]

There is a difference between "debt" and "deficit", though, isn't there? "Debt" is how much we owe people; "deficit" is how much more we spend than we bring in. "Deficit" wouldn't include interest on outstanding debt? "Deficit" wouldn't include deferred payments to debtors?

Yup...all things considered I took teddy boy's proposal as pure addition to the debt to compare quickly...because all things considered his is a global proposal that is central enough to what he's doing...just treated it as straight addition to the debt...he may perform worse overall...but not enough to make it outlandish...

Edit...Ooops...never mentioned anwhere I took out .4T to start for int. etc to get BOs 1.2T...sorry...trying to talk on phone and do this...not good. Anyway fast and ugly look based on debt.

 

[IrishLax]

Huh? Care to explain the part in bold? The deficit per year has decreased pretty drastically from 2009 to now. Color me confused.

Also the 8.6 Trillion is under normal conditions (no massive downturn in the economy), I am willing to bet if they calculated the deficit with a massive economic downturn it would be a heck of a lot more than that.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEBTN

During the financial crisis, the debt rose to 11.5 trillion from 10 trillion... $1.5 trillion/year. Over the 5 years after the "Great Recession" (Q2 2009)... the debt went up to $17.6 trillion, or $1.2 trillion/year.

Like I said, it's obviously not on Obama. There is a good WAPO article out there from a couple years ago that explains that in irrefutable detail. The economy is (generally) humming along at this point though and if the European markets don't completely crash it's likely that when you look at 2014-2016 it'll be much less per year.

But I think it's funny to call $800 billion/year "exploding" the debt given the rates we've seen recently, especially when taken as a percentage of the GDP.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Good for rich people! That makes me happy. If a rich person is rich, it's because he provided a whole lot of a good or service that people want. That means everyone is better off. The rich guy is happy because he gets a ton of money and the people buying his good or service are happy because they like the good or service (otherwise they wouldn't buy it). What's the incentive to entrepreneurship if not profit? People like iPhones and Prius but they want to limit the rewards of those who create such things.

Do we have a salary cap in the United States that I missed?

Am I mistaken or were all of those iPhones and Priuses created in an environment that had a progressive tax? Show me some examples of Steve Jobs and Co saying "Well gee Dale, hold off on that business decision, that damn government wants to tax me at a higher rate than the guy who assembled it. It's about the principle of the matter, so shut it alllllll down."

You're right. The world would be so much better if nobody had principles.

Yeah, that's what the alternative is. Just a barren unprincipled wasteland.

Regardless, the profit motive is not only a principled idea but it's also a practical one. Prosperity and quality of life for all goes up through free market entrepreneurship. Where would you rather be a 50%-er than 2016 America?

Probably most of Europe and Anglosphere countries.

Again, you present a false premise that any alternative to some crackpot libertarian utopia is sheer madness, when every achievement you can list in the last century has happened with basic shit like a progressive tax system.

No matter how big the gap between you and the richest of the rich, the quality of life for the average person is AMAZING compared to any other time in history due to the fact that entrepreneurs have been able to profit from their improvements.

And there is zero evidence that a lower tax rate for the richest in society improves upon that.

Plus what's with this fantasy that the economy consists solely of entrepreneurs tinkering away with great new inventions that the government is squashing? That's what you insinuate with every post.

 

[Buster Bluth]

WHAT....Debt isn't rocketing along...ok you and I have different ideas of "Rocket". I see a Rocket as fucking fast...Maybe you see Rocket=accelerating???

The debt as a percentage of GDP, the way debt is appropriately measured, is decreasing. For your rocket metaphor to be correct you'd need to say "like a rocket in the sense that it's slowing down," which I don't think is how rockets work.

Our debt situation is improving right now, the 2008-2011 sort of increases are not happening.

what did we end '15 at...about 18+ Trillion? '16 is projected to be what 19+ Trillion.

So at the given rate we are adding 1+ Trillion a year (realized 15 to 16 projected...not some 3-5 year budget guestimate/fantasy)...if that isn't "rocketing", can we call it something you like that means going really fast?

It's an enormous red flag when someone only talks about debt in nominal dollars. There's a reason they don't measure debt like that.

 

[phgreek]

Your numbers are completely off. The last 2 years the deficit has been between 400 Billion and 500 Billion each year. Still large but nowhere near what you are saying. Sorry

Your numbers are completely off. The last 2 years the deficit has been between 400 Billion and 500 Billion each year. Still large but nowhere near what you are saying. Sorry

yup...I was on a telecon, and pulled up a random debt clock, and did some calcs in my head....the debt calc only had debt not deficit so I just pulled out tax burden on current debt and ran with it...which may have been close enough had the numbers been right to start with...they weren't...my apologies. I deserve all the eggs and tomatos for being so distracted. And didn't think to go back until you posted this...finally did. You are right...the actual new debt (deficit) is right on your numbers...

Here is the link to the full study cited in the article. The OP was after a different point than I...but here it is.

http://taxpolicycenter.org/UploadedPDF/2000612-an-analysis-of-ted-cruzs-tax-plan.pdf


I read the study...I can't see where it affords any revenue growth based on adding more people to the workforce, and increasing the median income, among other things, which Cruz claims is an impact of his grand plan in the sky. It mentions "job creation" as a major component of the Cruz plan but does not deal with it in a way I can see.

Here is a link to another analysis...that does...

Details and Analysis of Senator Ted Cruz’s Tax Plan | Tax Foundation

taxpolicycenter analysis of revenue losses is better but taxfoundation.org did attempt some credit for job, wage, economy growth...

If you split the net result between the two studies, you get somewhere in the 4-5 trillion range over 10 years which is about the same as your more accurate deficit numbers accumulated over 10 years.

All that said...

This all started because I was being a wiseass about the criticism of Teddy boy being partisan...Seems not...so I was wrong.

 

[phgreek]

The debt as a percentage of GDP, the way debt is appropriately measured, is decreasing. For your rocket metaphor to be correct you'd need to say "like a rocket in the sense that it's slowing down," which I don't think is how rockets work.

Our debt situation is improving right now, the 2008-2011 sort of increases are not happening.



It's an enormous red flag when someone only talks about debt in nominal dollars. There's a reason they don't measure debt like that.

The point was a comparison, in a near static situation not really economic performance, and my numbers were wrong anyway....so yea, that makes you right. That said, the debt is terminal velocity, and contrary to popular opinion, I do think the debt number by itself has meaning.

 

[no.1IrishFan]

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[GoIrish41]

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When did the symbol of America change from Apple pie and baseball?

 

[zelezo vlk]

When did the symbol of America change from Apple pie and baseball?

When the major league were integrated

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

 

[connor_in]

 

[connor_in]

 

[connor_in]

 

[connor_in]

 

[connor_in]

 

[connor_in]

 

[Cackalacky]

When did the symbol of America change from Apple pie and baseball?

He is grasping at straws..... This is sad. Based on the television ads playing here South Carolina is looking like his last stand. GWB has been meeting whip SC republican's including Haley, I assume, trying to whip them into support for Jeb!.

 

[connor_in]

 

[GoIrish41]

He is grasping at straws..... This is sad. Based on the television ads playing here South Carolina is looking like his last stand. GWB has been meeting whip SC republican's including Haley, I assume, trying to whip them into support for Jeb!.

I think the clearest signal that the end is near is that he is getting his brother to stump for him. While it may help in SC (I'm told his approval rating approaches 90 percent among republicans in the state), it will hurt him in states that vote later. That said, I watched W's speech the other day (it was pretty good, actually) and the TV anchors covering it cut away as soon as Jeb started his speech. lol.

 

[connor_in]

 

[wizards8507]

When did the symbol of America change from Apple pie and baseball?

1791

 

[woolybug25]

1791

At first, I thought you must be talking about the Bill of Rights, which was penned in 1791. But then I figured someone as devastatingly witty as yourself must be playing this as a ruse. I was correct...

1791: An ordinance is written barring the game of baseball within 80 yards of the Meeting House in Pittsfield, Massachusetts (first known reference to the game of baseball in North America).

1791_in_the_United_States

The day baseball died...

 

[pkt77242]

Are You More Likely To Vote For A Woman Or A Man? | FiveThirtyEight

 

[pkt77242]

Buster will love this one
Republican-Leaning Cities Are At Greater Risk Of Job Automation | FiveThirtyEight

 

[connor_in]

Hillary Clinton: Will the Democratic Presidential Candidate Make History? - Vogue

Article starting to plant the seed that it's not HRC's fault, its that America still isn't ready for a woman president.

 

[connor_in]

 

[connor_in]

 

[connor_in]

Obama's Hope™ designer endorses Sanders | TheHill

 

[GoldenDomer]

 

[kmoose]

Hillary Clinton: Will the Democratic Presidential Candidate Make History? - Vogue

Article starting to plant the seed that it's not HRC's fault, its that America still isn't ready for a woman president.

Vogue: Employing politically savvy writers since................. next week?