So he either honors his contract and gets paid a huge sum of money or he performs well enough to convince another team to pay the buyout. There is no scenario whatsoever that would cause him to not want to sign a 6 year contract unless he hated Notre Dame and knew he wanted to leave in a year.
I just HATE long contracts for ANYONE. This has nothing to do with BK personally.
If we go 6-6 next year, ND will be scared away from firing BK. That's not a good situation.
Everything you said is good, except you forgot the ego and success driven things. Kelly isn't looking back. He is not going to have a falloff in performance. He just isn't.
Say he wants to get out in three years, for example; as the first couple years would be too prohibited for a buyout, he needs to perform really well during those years in order for someone to want to buy him out.
Say he just screws the pooch, from here on out. If it is purposeful, there are things the university can do to make his life hell, including usurping all of his authority, or moving him out of his head coaching position. And if he flat out fraudulently negotiated that contract, UND can back out of it unscathed.
There are performance incentives. Jack Swarbrick is a great negotiator. The best long term contracts are more performance based with wider ranges of reward for success. Some good ones actually have penalties built in for extremely poor performance. Getting back to the scenario of entirely flaccid performance, I am sure with a Swarbrick contract it would cost too much to contemplate.
Jack and Brian have too good of a working relationship. I believe their customary, behind the scenes relationship gives Brian some wide latitude that he might not get at any other place, and I believe Jack retains some powerful oversight. Examples of each would be Brian seeing what happened to the other Kelly at Philly, and my belief to this day Jack had more to do with the restructuring of the coaching staff than was even implied.
Also, Brian came out and said it many times last year, point blank. He wasn't going anywhere. Most people took it as 'coachspeak.' But I thought it was the straight line.