ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

[nsideirish]

I predict the Big Ten plays itself out of contention like this:

OSU beats MSU next week, Michigan beats Penn St

Michigan beats OSU following week

Michigan beats Iowa in the Big Ten championship.

Although Ohio St will be 11-1, their last game of the season will be a loss and they will have failed to even win their division. MSU will have 2 losses and be out. Michigan fans will shoot up in the rankings but I think an 11-1 ND holds them off.

 

[stlnd01]

How do?


Oklahoma won't be in due to no championship game. The Big XII has no championship game. That's huge.

Neither do we.
I just worry that an 11-1 Okie, with the wins they'd have at the end, gets some sympathy votes over an 11-1 Notre Dame whose best win is... Navy? Especially b/c the Big 12 got shut out last year and some will want to make up for that.
Stanford losing hurts our perceived SOS (maybe more important than actual SOS at this time of year) a lot.

 

[johnnycando]

Neither do we.
I just worry that an 11-1 Okie, with the wins they'd have at the end, gets some sympathy votes over an 11-1 Notre Dame whose best win is... Navy? Especially b/c the Big 12 got shut out last year and some will want to make up for that.
Stanford losing hurts our perceived SOS (maybe more important than actual SOS at this time of year) a lot.

Navy, temple, usc, Stanford, all D1 FBS teams.

I'm tired of chasing my tail.

Care to take my bet?

 

[gkIrish]

We should root hard for Baylor to beat Oklahoma St. The last thing we need is for Oklahoma to leave Bedlam with a top 10 road victory.

Unfortunately my hypothetical of Stanford losing before we play them and Oklahoma winning out is coming to life. I think Oklahoma will have a very strong argument to get in ahead of us if they win out. IMO a win over Navy (who will lose @Houston IMO) and a Stanford team that would finish in the 18-25 range if we beat them will leave us with, at best, 3 wins over the top 25 (if USC wins out) and NONE of them in the top 15.

Cold hard facts:

1) Pitt currently has 1 win over a .500 team, although they have a chance to get two more.
2) Oklahoma will have 4 wins over the top 25 at the end of the season if Tennessee wins out. Two of them will be in the top 15 and at least 1 will be in the top 10. They have also blown out every opponent they beat minus Tennessee and Baylor.
3) Georgia Tech, Texas, and Virginia are a combined 10-20. Those were our first 3 wins. Our last three will have a combined record of 15-24 or 17-22 at best after we get done beating them. So is the middle part of our schedule good enough to get us in?

I'm beginning to think we may need a Nebraska win over Iowa then an Iowa win over a 1-loss OSU or MSU to sneak in.

 

[EifertPower]

You know, if LSU loses another game and Florida loses to Florida State, then how would Alabama's quality of wins be better than ours? I know that a 1-loss SEC team will always make the Final 4, but really if that happens than our quality wins are better than Alabama's.

 

[D-BOE34]

Neither do we.
I just worry that an 11-1 Okie, with the wins they'd have at the end, gets some sympathy votes over an 11-1 Notre Dame whose best win is... Navy? Especially b/c the Big 12 got shut out last year and some will want to make up for that.
Stanford losing hurts our perceived SOS (maybe more important than actual SOS at this time of year) a lot.

Why do people keep saying this? The BIG 12 got left out for tOSU who ended up winning the whole thing. That right there made the decision look correct. No one needs to make up for anything. You don't make up for a correct decision.

 

[johnnycando]

^

Tha troof

 

[wizards8507]

Why do people keep saying this? The BIG 12 got left out for tOSU who ended up winning the whole thing. That right there made the decision look correct. No one needs to make up for anything. You don't make up for a correct decision.

This. If anything, the Big 12 getting left out last year indicates it's MORE likely that they get left out this year because it shows that the committee doesn't respect the way Baylor and TCU are scheduling in September.

Oklahoma is the exception, because their OOC schedule is all FBS teams and one of them a middle-tier SEC.

 

[Irish YJ]

It's still very possible we have a win over the PAC12 champion, and perhaps wins over both division champs (Stanford assuming they don't shit the bed, and isn't USC now leading the South).

We could also have a win over the AAC conference, and perhaps wins over both divisional championship representatives.

As long as NC doesn't crash the Clemson party, our 2 pt road loss in a monsoon will be almost as good as a win.

Wins over like opponents are the tiebreaker in just about everything... I'll take my chances with OK finishing with one loss. We just can't afford an undefeated Big12 team.

 

[IrishHokie22]

I think it's pretty simple at this point. We definitely need Ok. St. to lose a game. That goes without saying. The question then becomes "who gets in, 11-1 ND or 11-1 Oklahoma?". I'm probably biased but I think ND would deserve to. Unfortunately, I'm not sure if the committee would agree with me.

Oklahoma is going to get a huge bump in the rankings this week. I think they'll jump up to 5th, and wouldn't be shocked if they slotted up to 4th. Beating TCU next week would likely be enough for them to pass us, if they don't already. I believe Ok. St. loses next week to Baylor but Oklahoma beats TCU.

That then leaves you with two 10-1 teams going at it in Bedlam and us going to Stanford. No way we jump Oklahoma if they beat State in that scenario, especially after Stanford blew it vs Oregon.

So, in summary, I think that we not only need Ok. St. to lose, but probably Oklahoma as well. I do not see a scenario where an 11-1 Baylor/TCU gets in, so I'm not worried about them.

Next week, we need Baylor to beat Ok. St. and TCU to beat Oklahoma. If only one of those events happen, we're going to need the loser from next week (Ok. St. more likely, IMO) to win Bedlam. We need Oklahoma to finish with two losses and Ok. St. to finish with one.

Stanford losing really hurt us. I hope I'm wrong about Oklahoma but I doubt I am. They'll be no lower than 6th in this week's rankings and beating TCU will likely be enough for them to jump us in the following week's rankings.

 

[DillonHall]

It's very possible Oklahoma's win won't be viewed as impressively by the committee. They weren't that pleased with Baylor to begin with, and they were starting a freshman QB.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

It's still very possible we have a win over the PAC12 champion, and perhaps wins over both division champs (Stanford assuming they don't shit the bed, and isn't USC now leading the South).

We could also have a win over the AAC conference, and perhaps wins over both divisional championship representatives.

As long as NC doesn't crash the Clemson party, our 2 pt road loss in a monsoon will be almost as good as a win.

Wins over like opponents are the tiebreaker in just about everything... I'll take my chances with OK finishing with one loss. We just can't afford an undefeated Big12 team.

Thanks for the logic, guys!

YJ, I have to agree with this, and find it is the most salient point in the conversation.

It's very possible Oklahoma's win won't be viewed as impressively by the committee. They weren't that pleased with Baylor to begin with, and they were starting a freshman QB.

And this argument (an extension of the OU is the best team to win the Big 12 round robin) has legs, too!

 

[CTIDANDREW]

I am not one that likes to overuse the transitive property when comparing college football teams, because I fully understand that every college football game is different. For example, USF beating Temple handily last night does not mean the Bulls should even keep it close versus the Irish.

However, when it comes to the Oklahoma vs Notre Dame argument I think it would be crazy to not bring up the Texas component. Notre Dame demolished and embarrassed Texas and could have won by 50+ points, and Oklahoma never even had a lead vs the Longhorns. Hopefully, that factors heavily into the committees thinking if faced with the choice.

With what happened to TCU last year in the final ranking, anything is possible though...and it is important that Notre Dame wins in Palo Alto by 2+ touchdowns.

 

[gkIrish]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">New CFB playoff odds. The Pac-12 is probably screwed & may have taken Notre Dame with it. <a href="https://t.co/Tow9XVfrV4">https://t.co/Tow9XVfrV4</a> <a href="https://t.co/Z2aT8Avej1">pic.twitter.com/Z2aT8Avej1</a></p>— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/665930499878203392">November 15, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

Need osu n Iowa to lose. Stanford cost ND vs 1loss OK

 

[johnnycando]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">New CFB playoff odds. The Pac-12 is probably screwed & may have taken Notre Dame with it. <a href="https://t.co/Tow9XVfrV4">https://t.co/Tow9XVfrV4</a> <a href="https://t.co/Z2aT8Avej1">pic.twitter.com/Z2aT8Avej1</a></p>— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/665930499878203392">November 15, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Lmao.

Wrong.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Lmao.

Wrong.

Calling out nate silver? You must be truly brilliant.

 

[johnnycando]

Calling out nate silver? You must be truly brilliant.

I'd wager he's wrong on this weeks top four.

The committee doesn't read his stuff.

Nor have they been influenced yet this season by the AP, Coaches, or ESPN rankings.

BTW, I am a brilliant Motha F'er.

 

[Irish Insanity]

I'd understand Ok St or Iowa jumping us at this time long before I'd understand OK jumping us.

 

[pkt77242]

I'd wager he's wrong on this weeks top four.

The committee doesn't read his stuff.

Nor have they been influenced yet this season by the AP, Coaches, or ESPN rankings.

BTW, I am a brilliant Motha F'er.

He isn't predicting this weeks top four. He looking at the probability that each team gets into the playoff. Two very different things.

Booming Sooners: Updated College Football Playoff Predictions (Week 11) | FiveThirtyEight

 

[pkt77242]

I'd understand Ok St or Iowa jumping us at this time long before I'd understand OK jumping us.

That isn't what it is saying at all. It is looking at the probability of each team making the playoff. Not what will happen this week.

 

[yankeeND]

Lmao.

Wrong.

Do people forget that Texas beat Oklahoma? Weird huh? 38-3 amiright

 

[johnnycando]

He isn't predicting this weeks top four. He looking at the probability that each team gets into the playoff. Two very different things.

Booming Sooners: Updated College Football Playoff Predictions (Week 11) | FiveThirtyEight

So am I.

I mean I get it.

I do not think we'll be on the outside looking in.

But hey I'm done.

Sorry if you guys feel better being negative then hoping for a positive outcome.

I feel better being positive and expecting a positive outcome.

That's the way I was taught, and I raise my children that way.

When life hands you lemons, then you eat them, drink their juice. I think we'll have Oranges in our future at the very least.

 

[Irish YJ]

What's a wicket-keeper batsman know about CFB anyway

 

[Irish Insanity]

That isn't what it is saying at all. It is looking at the probability of each team making the playoff. Not what will happen this week.

I agree with what you're saying his analysis was. That's just my individual opinion.

 

[IrishinSyria]

That isn't what it is saying at all. It is looking at the probability of each team making the playoff. Not what will happen this week.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/uYX-NSZMqt0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[aubeirish]

What I want to know is why Oklahoma State is getting so much recognition for beating ISU(3-7 football team) by 4 and the week before beating a decimated TCU team that almost lost to Kansas(0-10) who is possibly the worst football team in the FBS? I don't see why they should jump us to the very least.

 

[NDgradstudent]

What I want to know is why Oklahoma State is getting so much recognition for beating ISU(3-7 football team) by 4 and the week before beating a decimated TCU team that almost lost to Kansas(0-10) who is possibly the worst football team in the FBS? I don't see why they should jump us to the very least.

We are effectively penalized for losing to the best team we played. Bama and Oklahoma, and OSU last year, both lost to relatively weak teams and are apparently in business. It's crazy. 8 team playoff now.

 

[dad4aa]

Many people on here are now freaking out because Stanford lost and we can no longer beat a "top 10" team. Most of these same people said we would be lucky to be in the top 10 of the first playoff rankings...yet we started out 5th.

Then we were going to get jumped by Ok State when they beat TCU...didn't happen.

Now all of you doom and gloom folks are saying we are going to get ousted by Oklahoma if we both run the table. NOT HAPPENING.

The committee already feels the Big 12 is fairly weak, no defense, poor OOC scheduling, etc. They were left out last year over an OSU team that lost to 7-6 Va Tech...even though TCU and Baylor went 11-1 with "top 10" wins and a better quality loss.

In addition to us looking better than OSU did last year (much better quality loss to Clemson than Va Tech), we actually have a common opponent that we destroyed 38-3 but beat Oklahoma 24-17.

Still holds that if we win out and there is no undefeated Big 12 team we will be in. Need Baylor to knock off Ok State next week and we are good.

 

[johnnycando]

Many people on here are now freaking out because Stanford lost and we can no longer beat a "top 10" team. Most of these same people said we would be lucky to be in the top 10 of the first playoff rankings...yet we started out 5th.

Then we were going to get jumped by Ok State when they beat TCU...didn't happen.

Now all of you doom and gloom folks are saying we are going to get ousted by Oklahoma if we both run the table. NOT HAPPENING.

The committee already feels the Big 12 is fairly weak, no defense, poor OOC scheduling, etc. They were left out last year over an OSU team that lost to 7-6 Va Tech...even though TCU and Baylor went 11-1 with "top 10" wins and a better quality loss.

In addition to us looking better than OSU did last year (much better quality loss to Clemson than Va Tech), we actually have a common opponent that we destroyed 38-3 but beat Oklahoma 24-17.

Still holds that if we win out and there is no undefeated Big 12 team we will be in. Need Baylor to knock off Ok State next week and we are good.

Brilliant and excellent post.