Is it hard to understand that if Clemson loses they vacate forever a spot in the top 4 and the #1 seed they will otherwise have?
If Clemson wins out they REMOVE 1 spot for ND and everyone else. There's no logical scenario where that's good for any other team. Because if they don't lose Clemson is in. If ND has to edge out 1 Power 5 conference champ with Clemson out, then with Clemson sitting at #1, ND has to edge out 2. SOS from a tough loss early in the season isn't going keep Baylor or TCU from benefiting from a huge win and jumping ND when one of them beats the other.
Clemson already did their part in the SOS argument. ND is #5. ND is going to get no more bump from Clemson. On the other hand if Clemson loses to FSU and handles the rest of that weak schedule they are still team with 1 loss to what will then be a top-10 team. It doesn't drag down ND at all.
If it were a case of losing to an SEC team that's one thing but the ACC is not guaranteed a spot, you're talking about essentially removing one Conference from the playoffs if Clemson loses. That's what you want. The teams ahead of ND at the end of the year are going to be there based on who they beat, not who they lost to.
A large part of why Clemson is #1 is because they beat ND (as in they have the best win) Long said that plain. ND's ranking isn't based just on a close loss to Clemson but their body of work this season. Thinking that ND is somehow tied at the umbilical chord with Clemson isn't right thinking. If ND gets in it will be because they beat Stanford, not because they lost to Clemson
Our current spot is completely subjective because the Big 12 undefeated teams haven't played anyone yet. One of their teams will likely surpass us in the coming weeks, while the others will fall away during Cannibalism November. Hopefully they all end up with 1 loss, but who knows yet.
Clemson, by far, has the easiest remaining path to undefeated among the undefeated teams. They really just have FSU to get by this weekend, with an outside shot that North Carolina upsets them (Unlikely, given NC has one win against Clemson in the last 13 years). It's more likely that Clemson goes undefeated into their conference championship than a Big 12 team running the table, and the Big 12 won't have the benefit of a conference championship to jump us. Our path to the playoff runs through the PAC-12 and Big 12 getting denied.
If Clemson loses to FSU, yes, they'll lose their #1 spot. We are not guaranteed to move up to #4 though, and I bet you we won't move up. The 2 point loss won't be as impressive given the fact FSU lost to a struggling GT team. Clemson losing will cause some chaos for us, it won't move us up. In the BCS we would move up, but this isn't the BCS. We are where we are because of some wins against a few decent teams and a very good showing against the #1 team in the playoff picture currently. We were in a similar position last year after the FSU loss, but we kept on losing after that and it didn't matter. 2015 Clemson is essentially our 2014 FSU, we just have to keep winning this time.
I agree that if ND is going to get in it will be due to a win against Stanford. That game isn't in the books yet though, and that only solidifies a viable chance ab bouncing the PAC-12 from the playoff picture if Stanford is the champ. SEC will be in more than likely. B1G will be in more than likely. If Clemson gets through this weekend they are in more than likely. Best chance for us to guarantee our spot is to knock the PAC-12 out and have a more impressive schedule/record than the Big 12 who have no conference championship win. How do you do that? With all our opponents winning as many games as possible, including Clemson (Not FSU). Even through all the Big 12 cannibalism, an 11-1 Big 12 champ will have likely beaten 2 of the 3 between Oklahoma, OK State, Baylor, and TCU (Taking one team out of the equation, based on who you're looking at of course). Losing by 2 points on the road to a 13-0 Clemson team would trump any of those 1 loss Big 12 teams though.
