ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

[SoDakDomer]

A one loss Ohio State that wins the BIG10 championship game is in for sure. If its even possible for a one loss ohio state team to make it into the BIG10 championship game. I am assuming there is a scenario that allows that.

 

[irishfan]

A one loss Ohio State that wins the BIG10 championship game is in for sure. If its even possible for a one loss ohio state team to make it into the BIG10 championship game. I am assuming there is.

B1G has an odd tiebreaker if there is a three-way tie:

There is the very real chance that OSU/MSU/Michigan all finish 7-1 in conference play and tie at the top. In addition to these three teams winning out against the other B1G teams (they'll be big favorites in every game), OSU would need to beat MSU while Michigan would need to beat OSU. If this happened, the tiebreaker would be determined by who the committee has ranked the highest (unless the highest ranked team is only 1 spot ahead of the second-highest rated team...then they would use head-to-head between those teams to determine the division champion). If they all finished 7-1, I think 10-2 Michigan would be the highest rated coming off their win over OSU to end the season and the very near-miss with MSU earlier.

If, and only if, this scenario happened with 11-2 Michigan winning the B1G, I think 11-1 ND would be rated higher than any B1G team to end the season.

 

[IrishinSyria]

edited out, Irishfan's post was better

 

[wizards8507]

If they all finished 7-1, I think 10-2 Michigan would be the highest rated coming off their win over OSU to end the season and the very near-miss with MSU earlier.

Not if Michigan is 10-2 and the others are 11-1.

 

[gkIrish]

Not even defending champion THE Ohio State University? Shit would burn.

Nope. I'm with whoever said the timing of your loss matters a lot. All else being relatively equal, teams that lose later are screwed.

 

[wizards8507]

Nope. I'm with whoever said the timing of your loss matters a lot. All else being relatively equal, teams that lose later are screwed.

Are you saying that's how you think it should be, or how you think it is? I think jumping to any conclusions after a single season with committee rankings is a bit premature.

 

[gkIrish]

Are you saying that's how you think it should be, or how you think it is? I think jumping to any conclusions after a single season with committee rankings is a bit premature.

I'm saying that's how it is, not how it should be.

 

[phork]

Now that Barrett is at QB, the OSU machine is going to fist hump Harbaugh and it will be glorious.

 

[Dizzyphil]

Now that Barrett is at QB, the OSU machine is going to fist hump Harbaugh and it will be glorious.

I hate MeChicken

 

[ulukinatme]

As long as Clemson wins out, I don't see any 1 loss Big 12 team getting in before us. Their schedule is pathetic, the only ranked teams they play are each other, and Oklahoma is the only one that has traveled out of the region for a decent game against Tennessee. Oklahoma has been the most impressive Big 12 team, imo. Other than a loss to their rival and an improved Texas squad, Oklahoma has been dominant in just about every game. TCU has struggled at times with mediocre competition, Baylor just lost their starting QB and will hopefully struggle, and OK State hasn't played anyone either.

 

[GoIrish41]

As long as Clemson wins out, I don't see any 1 loss Big 12 team getting in before us. Their schedule is pathetic, the only ranked teams they play are each other, and Oklahoma is the only one that has traveled out of the region for a decent game against Tennessee. Oklahoma has been the most impressive Big 12 team, imo. Other than a loss to their rival and an improved Texas squad, Oklahoma has been dominant in just about every game. TCU has struggled at times with mediocre competition, Baylor just lost their starting QB and will hopefully struggle, and OK State hasn't played anyone either.

But okie's loss to Texas was not good. The Longhorns are terrible.

 

[BobbyMac]

But okie's loss to Texas was not good. The Longhorns are terrible.

But if OU wins out... that bad loss turns into a good loss for ND. Especially when (if) Baylor, TCU and OSU split games down the home stretch.

 

[ulukinatme]

But okie's loss to Texas was not good. The Longhorns are terrible.

They're a better team with Heard at QB. They're not a great team yet, but again, this was a rivalry game. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, that's why Michigan still made it a game every year they played tOSU or us when they weren't very good.

 

[BobbyMac]

This weeks needs:

Winners in bold


Thursday

Pitt over UNC
WVU over TCU
Ducks over Devils

Friday

Wake over Ville

Saturday

Ole Miss over Auburn
Colorado over UCLA
UGA over UF
Clemson over NCSt
OU over KU
TTU over OkSt
MD over IA
UofH over Vandy
Miami over Duke
OrSt over Utah
scUM over Minn
Memphis over Tulane
Stanford over Wash St.
Penn St over Illini
Navy over USF
UMass over Ball St
GT over UVa
SC over Cal
Texas over ISU
Washington over Arizona

Bama, LSU, Baylor all have byes.

.

 

[koonja]

This weeks needs:


Thursday

Pitt over UNC
WVU over TCU
Ducks over Devils

Friday

Wake over Ville

Saturday

Ole Miss over Auburn
Colorado over UCLA
UGA over UF
Clemson over NCSt
OU over KU
TTU over OkSt
MD over IA
UofH over Vandy
Miami over Duke
OrSU over Utah
scUM over Minn
Memphis over Tulane
Stanford over Wash St.
Penn St over Illini
Navy over USF
UMass over Ball St
GT over UVa
SC over Cal
Texas over ISU
Washington over Arizona

Bama, LSU, Baylor all have byes.

.

Agree with most of your list, but NC state over clemson all day. Guys, the Clemson loss is not goin to turn out to be a bad one even if they lose 2 games. They're in our way.

 

[scUM Hater]

Just Win Baby!

Sent from my SM-T530NU using Tapatalk

 

[ulukinatme]

Agree with most of your list, but NC state over clemson all day. Guys, the Clemson loss is not goin to turn out to be a bad one even if they lose 2 games. They're in our way.

Not if the PAC-12 and Big 12 are out of the race. If we win out it's almost a certainty that we get in over the PAC-12 champ. It's more likely that the Big 12 undefeated teams all lose 1 game or more from here on out too. They have no conference championship, same as us, so it's far likely we get in before them on 1 loss each. Clemson really just has FSU left to play, I don't think they'll have a problem with whoever they may face in the Coastal division. The best way for us to get in at this point is to hope that Clemson wins out and takes a playoff spot, that way the loss looks really good.

 

[Cackalacky]

Not if the PAC-12 and Big 12 are out of the race. If we win out it's almost a certainty that we get in over the PAC-12 champ. It's more likely that the Big 12 undefeated teams all lose 1 game or more from here on out too. They have no conference championship, same as us, so it's far likely we get in before them on 1 loss each. Clemson really just has FSU left to play, I don't think they'll have a problem with whoever they may face in the Coastal division. The best way for us to get in at this point is to hope that Clemson wins out and takes a playoff spot, that way the loss looks really good.

Yep. I think the easiest (likeliest) path for us is to beat Stanford and take the Pac12 spot.

 

[irishfan]

Yes, like everyone has posted:

--Go 11-1, beat Stanford, eliminate the PAC-12
--Assume B1G/SEC champs are locks

2 spots left for ND/ACC/Big-12

Big-12 purge. We'll get in over any 11-1 loss with maybe the exception of 11-1 OU

or

Hope no one emerges from ACC. Clemson losing 2 games looks like a stretch and FSU would probably get in at 12-1. FSU beating Clemson and losing to Florida could be our only chance there barring an FSU/Clemson loss in ACC Champ which won't happen.

 

[Irish YJ]

Yes, like everyone has posted:

--Go 11-1, beat Stanford, eliminate the PAC-12
--Assume B1G/SEC champs are locks

2 spots left for ND/ACC/Big-12

Big-12 purge. We'll get in over any 11-1 loss with maybe the exception of 11-1 OU

or

Hope no one emerges from ACC. Clemson losing 2 games looks like a stretch and FSU would probably get in at 12-1. FSU beating Clemson and losing to Florida could be our only chance there barring an FSU/Clemson loss in ACC Champ which won't happen.

Not seeing FSU get in, even if they beat Clemson. We beat GT handily, and GT beat FSU. We barely lost to Clemson, at Clemson, in a weather apocalypse... FSU would have to stomp Clemson IMO to get in over us. I don't see that happening. And FSU (17) has a lot of ground to catch up, while we're sitting inside the top 10. Not impossible, just not likely.

 

[ulukinatme]

Yeah, I know some people think the ACC looks like a viable candidate for us to take a playoff spot from because FSU fell pretty far and everyone else aside from Clemson is out of the race, but Clemson also has probably the easiest road to the playoff at this point among the unbeaten teams. The ACC Coastal is fairly weak, and Clemson really only has FSU as a roadblock at this point.

TCU, Baylor, and OK State still have to play each other, which will all be fairly tough games. All those teams still have to play Oklahoma too. Only one of them can possibly be undefeated, and it's quite likely they all end up with 1 or more losses. On top of that they all have crummy schedules aside from maybe Oklahoma, and they have no conference championship to help them out with the committee, same as us.

PAC-12 is likely out of the picture if we beat Stanford.

SEC champ and B1G champ will likely be locks, unless they have 2 or more losses, and even then I imagine the SEC champ still gets in.

 

[stlnd01]

Not seeing FSU get in, even if they beat Clemson. We beat GT handily, and GT beat FSU. We barely lost to Clemson, at Clemson, in a weather apocalypse... FSU would have to stomp Clemson IMO to get in over us. I don't see that happening. And FSU (17) has a lot of ground to catch up, while we're sitting inside the top 10. Not impossible, just not likely.

We're ahead of them now. But FSU with a conference championship, wins over Clemson and Florida and a very close - you could call it a fluke - loss to a quality opponent would have a pretty strong case. I think a lot of playoff selectors would choose them over us.

But personally I don't think FSU's that good this year. I think they lose to Clemson and/or Florida and wind up a non-factor. I do, though, think Clemson will be a factor, as it's hard to see them losing to anyone other than maybe FSU. And I guess I'd rather they be undefeated and obviously in than alongside us on the one-loss bubble.

 

[Irish YJ]

We're ahead of them now. But FSU with a conference championship, wins over Clemson and Florida and a very close - you could call it a fluke - loss to a quality opponent would have a pretty strong case. I think a lot of playoff selectors would choose them over us.

But personally I don't think FSU's that good this year. I think they lose to Clemson and/or Florida and wind up a non-factor. I do, though, think Clemson will be a factor, as it's hard to see them losing to anyone other than maybe FSU. And I guess I'd rather they be undefeated and obviously in than alongside us on the one-loss bubble.

I think they lose to both. FL will be a close one.
Regardless, ND has a better resume. Our wins would be 5 ranked (at the time) opponents (GT, USC, Temple, Pitt, Stanford, and maybe a 6th in Navy), and loss to a ranked opponent. Our wins could be over 4-5 potential conf/div champions. FSU at most will have victories over 4. FL will likely tumble and not be ranked when they play.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Notre Dame is kinda stuck a little bit. The Irish need Clemson to win out since it is the only Irish loss right now and that would make that loss look better for the Irish. But, if Clemson wins out, they take one of the four spots as well. Kinda a damned if you do, damned if you don't proposition for ND.

I think the best bet for the Irish lies in the Pac 12. Stanford needs to win out and then lose to ND the last regular season game. Then Stanford needs to win the Pac 12 CG. That is the best likely scenario I see right now.

The Irish need Bama to beat LSU and Ole Miss to win out. That's a tall order.

I think tOSU wins out in the B1G.

The Big 12 is the next best chance for the Irish to get in IMO. Need TCU and Baylor to have one loss each somewhere along the way and I think that is possible.

tOSU
Clemson
ND
Pac 12/Big 12/SEC for the fourth spot.

 

[johnnycando]

Notre Dame is kinda stuck a little bit. The Irish need Clemson to win out since it is the only Irish loss right now and that would make that loss look better for the Irish. But, if Clemson wins out, they take one of the four spots as well. Kinda a damned if you do, damned if you don't proposition for ND.

I think the best bet for the Irish lies in the Pac 12. Stanford needs to win out and then lose to ND the last regular season game. Then Stanford needs to win the Pac 12 CG. That is the best likely scenario I see right now.

The Irish need Bama to beat LSU and Ole Miss to win out. That's a tall order.

I think tOSU wins out in the B1G.

The Big 12 is the next best chance for the Irish to get in IMO. Need TCU and Baylor to have one loss each somewhere along the way and I think that is possible.

tOSU
Clemson
ND
Pac 12/Big 12/SEC for the fourth spot.

I think ND needs Clemson beat by FSU, which is jail sexed by Florida. Who also wins the SEC. But ends up outside.

FSUs loss to GT, and their win over Clemson leaves the play-off committee giving us the nod due to our RS Frosh QB starting his first game on the road in hostile Death Valley with Noah's ark floating in the parking lot.

We lost by 2 points.

My take.

 

[T Town Tommy]

I think ND needs Clemson beat by FSU, which is jail sexed by Florida. Who also wins the SEC. But ends up outside.

FSUs loss to GT, and their win over Clemson leaves the play-off committee giving us the nod due to our RS Frosh QB starting his first game on the road in hostile Death Valley with Noah's ark floating in the parking lot.

We lost by 2 points.

My take.

Possibly. But it is no foregone conclusion that Fl even wins this weekend against Ga. And I don't think either Fl or Ga can beat the SEC west winner - who I think is the winner of the Bama/LSU game in a week and a half.

I also don't think FSU will beat Clemson either. But that's why we play them. Should be a fun November.

 

[irishfan]

Not seeing FSU get in, even if they beat Clemson. We beat GT handily, and GT beat FSU. We barely lost to Clemson, at Clemson, in a weather apocalypse... FSU would have to stomp Clemson IMO to get in over us. I don't see that happening. And FSU (17) has a lot of ground to catch up, while we're sitting inside the top 10. Not impossible, just not likely.

I don't know, they'd be ending the year with a flurry. They cancel out the GT argument by beating Clemson on the road which we failed to do regardless of the weather. Then they'd beat Florida on the road. Then win the ACC Championship.

EDIT: the more I think about, a 12-1 FSU would have us beat in just about every way possible. Their road win over 11-1 Clemson would be better than our best win (which would be over best-case 11-2 Stanford). Their win at Florida would be better than our second-best win (at this point probably best-case is 9-3 USC ending up ranked around #15). Their conference championship win would be over at the very least a solid ACC team who will have to win 9+ games to win their division. Throw in the fact that they'll be conference champions and have 12 wins compared to our 11 and I think they'd for sure get in over us....although like we've also all posted in this thread: FSU looks like garbage so far and this is a highly unlikely scenario.

 

[BobbyMac]

Notre Dame is kinda stuck a little bit. The Irish need Clemson to win out since it is the only Irish loss right now and that would make that loss look better for the Irish. But, if Clemson wins out, they take one of the four spots as well. Kinda a damned if you do, damned if you don't proposition for ND.

I think the best bet for the Irish lies in the Pac 12. Stanford needs to win out and then lose to ND the last regular season game. Then Stanford needs to win the Pac 12 CG. That is the best likely scenario I see right now.

The Irish need Bama or anybody to beat LSU and Ole Miss to win out. That's a tall order.

I think tOSU wins out in the B1G.

The Big 12 is the next best chance for the Irish to get in IMO. Need TCU and Baylor to have one loss each somewhere along the way and I think that is possible.

tOSU
Clemson
ND
Pac 12/Big 12/SEC for the fourth spot.

Don't need Bama's help, just Ole Miss'. Rebels win out and it's over.

Need OU to win out and maybe the other 3 to split games to bring down their SOS. I think OU winning out is all the Irish should need as the Texas common opponent in this situation is particularly damning if the SOS's are anywhere near close between ND and OU.

.

 

[NDgradstudent]

Notre Dame is kinda stuck a little bit. The Irish need Clemson to win out since it is the only Irish loss right now and that would make that loss look better for the Irish. But, if Clemson wins out, they take one of the four spots as well. Kinda a damned if you do, damned if you don't proposition for ND.

Certainly right, but it does seem strange that losing to a better team (i.e. one competing for a playoff spot) would actually hurt a team more than losing to a worse team. Still, part of this is just ND's independence. If we could win out and beat Clemson in the ACC CG we would get into the playoff.

 

[BobbyMac]

Certainly right, but it does seem strange that losing to a better team (i.e. one competing for a playoff spot) would actually hurt a team more than losing to a worse team. Still, part of this is just ND's independence. If we could win out and beat Clemson in the ACC CG we would get into the playoff.

Hold your horses young feller. You will get your wish as soon as Texas joins their next conference and blows up the BIG 12. The only thing that can save it is an 8 team playoff before Texas bolts.